Graph-based algorithms for comparison and prediction of household-level energy use profiles

We present an efficient graph-based algorithm for quantifying the similarity of household-level energy use profiles, using a notion of similarity that allows for small time–shifts when comparing profiles. Experimental results on a real smart meter data set demonstrate that in cases of practical interest our technique is far faster than the existing method for computing the same similarity measure. Having a fast algorithm for measuring profile similarity improves the efficiency of tasks such as clustering of customers and cross-validation of forecasting methods using historical data. Furthermore, we apply a generalisation of our algorithm to produce substantially better household-level energy use forecasts from historical smart meter data.

The STEP scale: a measure of short-term export performance improvement

This article is a direct response to a recent observation in the literature that managers appear to be short-term oriented in their assessment of the performance of an export venture (Madsen 1998). On the basis of a cross-national survey of exporting firms, the authors present a three-dimensional scale for assessing managerial judgment of short-term export performance (i.e., the STEP scale). The three dimensions are (1) satisfaction with short-term performance improvement, (2) short-term exporting intensity improvement, and (3) expected short-term performance improvement. The scale presents evidence of reliability as well as convergent, discriminant, and nomological validity, and it reveals factorial similarity and factorial equivalence across both samples. The authors outline managerial and public policy implications that stem from the scale and identify avenues for further export marketing research.

New strings for old : the role of similarity processing in an incidental learning task

This paper reports three experiments that examine the role of similarity processing in McGeorge and Burton's (1990) incidental learning task. In the experiments subjects performed a distractor task involving four-digit number strings, all of which conformed to a simple hidden rule. They were then given a forced-choice memory test in which they were presented with pairs of strings and were led to believe that one string of each pair had appeared in the prior learning phase. Although this was not the case, one string of each pair did conform to the hidden rule. Experiment 1 showed that, as in the McGeorge and Burton study, subjects were significantly more likely to select test strings that conformed to the hidden rule. However, additional analyses suggested that rather than having implicitly abstracted the rule, subjects may have been selecting strings that were in some way similar to those seen during the learning phase. Experiments 2 and 3 were designed to try to separate out effects due to similarity from those due to implicit rule abstraction. It was found that the results were more consistent with a similarity-based model than implicit rule abstraction per se.

Turbulent flow at 190 m height above London during 2006-2008: A climatology and the applicability of similarity theory

Flow and turbulence above urban terrain is more complex than above rural terrain, due to the different momentum and heat transfer characteristics that are affected by the presence of buildings (e.g. pressure variations around buildings). The applicability of similarity theory (as developed over rural terrain) is tested using observations of flow from a sonic anemometer located at 190.3 m height in London, U.K. using about 6500 h of data. Turbulence statistics—dimensionless wind speed and temperature, standard deviations and correlation coefficients for momentum and heat transfer—were analysed in three ways. First, turbulence statistics were plotted as a function only of a local stability parameter z/Λ (where Λ is the local Obukhov length and z is the height above ground); the σ_i/u_* values (i = u, v, w) for neutral conditions are 2.3, 1.85 and 1.35 respectively, similar to canonical values. Second, analysis of urban mixed-layer formulations during daytime convective conditions over London was undertaken, showing that atmospheric turbulence at high altitude over large cities might not behave dissimilarly from that over rural terrain. Third, correlation coefficients for heat and momentum were analyzed with respect to local stability. The results give confidence in using the framework of local similarity for turbulence measured over London, and perhaps other cities. However, the following caveats for our data are worth noting: (i) the terrain is reasonably flat, (ii) building heights vary little over a large area, and (iii) the sensor height is above the mean roughness sublayer depth.

Revisiting youden’s index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous score for classification of study participants into healthy or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might be confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead, an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden’s index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel–Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden’s index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

The changing structure of diets in the European Union in relation to healthy eating guidelines

Objective: Our objective in this paper is to assess diets in the European Union (EU) in relation to the recommendations of the recent World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization expert consultation and to show how diets have changed between 1961 and 2001. Data and methods: Computations make use of FAOSTAT data on food availability at country level linked to a food composition database to convert foods to nutrients. We further explore the growing similarity of diets in the EU by making use of a consumption similarity index. The index provides a single number measure of dietary overlap between countries. Results: The data confirm the excessive consumption by almost all countries of saturated fats, cholesterol and sugars, and the convergence of nutrient intakes across the EU. Whereas in 1961 diets in several European countries were more similar to US diets than to those of other European countries, this is no longer the case; moreover, while EU diets have become more homogeneous, the EU as a whole and the USA have become less similar over time. Conclusions: Although the dominant cause of greater similarity in EU diets over the period studied is increased intakes in Mediterranean countries of saturated fats, cholesterol and sugar, also important are reductions in saturated fat and sugar in some Northern European countries. This suggests that healthy eating messages are finally having an impact on diets; a distinctly European diet may also be emerging.

Use of remote sensing to measure change in the extent of habitat for the critically endangered Jerdon's Courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in India

Jerdon's Courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is one of the most endangered and least understood birds in the world. It is endemic to scrub habitats in southeast India which have been lost and degraded because of human land use. We used satellite images from 1991 and 2000 and two methods for classifying land cover to quantify loss of Jerdon's Courser habitat. The scrub habitats on which this species depends decreased in area by 11-15% during this short period (9.6 years), predominantly as a result of scrub clearance and conversion to agriculture. The remaining scrub patches were smaller and further from human settlements in 2000 than in 1991, implying that much of the scrub loss had occurred close to human population centres. We discuss the implications of our results for the conservation of Jerdon's Courser and the use of remote sensing methods in conservation.

Social bees and food plant associations in the Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, India

The diversity of social bees was assessed at 15 sites across five locations of the Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, Western Ghats, India, from January to December 2007. We also conducted floristic analyses of local vegetation in each site using one-hectare sample plots. All woody species with a dbh (diameter at breast height) : 30 cm were recorded within the plots. A total area of 9.72 ha was assessed for floristic composition. Similarity of floristic composition between sites was determined using the Jaccard's distance measure and a dendrogram constructed based on the hierarchical clustering of floristic dissimilarities between sites. A Bee Importance Index (BII) was developed to give a measure of the bee diversity at each site. This index was a sum of the species richness of bee species in a site and their visitation frequencies to flowers, calculated as mean flower visits hour 1 within 2 focal patches within one hectare plots. The visits of bee species to flowers were also recorded. The Jaccard distance measure indicated that the montane sites were quite dissimilar to the low elevation sites in floristic diversity. The BII was 7-9 for the wet forest sites and ranged from 4-6 for drier forest sites. Seventy three plant species were identified as social bee plants and of them 45% were visited by one species of bee, 37% by two bee species and 18% by more than two bee species, indicating a certain degree of floral specialization among bees.

Revisiting Youden's index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous Score for classification of study participants into healthy, or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between Studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might he confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off Value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden's index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel-Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden's index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

Apolipoprotein B-48: comparison of fasting concentrations measured in normolipidaemic individuals using SDS-PAGE, immunoblotting and ELISA

Raised levels of chylomicrons and chylomicron remnants, which circulate following a meal, have been implicated in the development of atherosclerosis. Apolipoprotein (apo) B-48 is exclusively associated with chylomicron particles and provides a specific direct measurement of the number of intestinally derived lipoproteins in the circulation. The quantification of apo B-48 in biological samples is difficult due to the very low concentration in plasma, structural similarity to the N-terminal 48% of apo B-100 and lack of an appropriate standard for apo B-48. Sodium dodecyl sulphate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE), followed by coomassie blue staining, has been used for many years to measure apo B-48 levels in triacylglycerol (TAG)-rich lipoprotein samples. The raising of antiserum to apo B-48 has led to development of more sensitive and specific methods including immunoblotting and enzyme-linked immunosorbant assays (ELISAs). This has enabled direct measurement of apo B-48 in plasma without the need for separation into TAG-rich lipoproteins. A high degree of variability was observed in the apo B-48 concentrations reported in the literature both within and between the SDS-PAGE, immunoblotting and ELISA methods. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional petit-suisse cheese: measure of the prebiotic effect

Prebiotics and probiotics are increasingly being used to produce potentially synbiotic foods, particularly through dairy products as vehicles. It is well known that both ingredients may offer benefits to improve the host health. This research aimed to evaluate the prebiotic potential of novel petit-suisse cheeses using an in vitro fermentation model. Five petit-suisse cheese formulations combining candidate prebiotics (inulin. oligofructose. hone) and probiotics (Lactobacillus acidophilus, Bifidobacterium lactis) were tested in vitro using, sterile. stirred, batch culture fermentations with human faecal slurry. Measurement of prebiotic effect (MPE) values were generated comparing bacterial changes through determination of maximum growth rates of groups, rate of substrate assimilation and production of lactate and short chain fatty acids. Fastest fermentation and high lactic acid production, promoting increased growth rates of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli. were achieved with addition of prebiotics to a probiotic cheese (made using starter + probiotics). Addition of probiotic strains to control cheese (made using just a starter culture) also resulted in high lactic acid production. Highest MPE values were obtained with addition of prebiotics to a probiotic cheese, followed by addition of prebiotics and/or probiotics to a control cheese. Under the in vitro conditions used, cheese made with the combination of different prebiotics and probiotics resulted in the most promising functional petit-suisse cheese. The study allowed comparison of potentially functional petit-suisse cheeses and screening of preferred synbiotic potential for future market use. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-dimensional similarity between forms I and II of cytenamide, a carbamazepine analogue

Cytenamide form I (R (3) over bar) undergoes a solid-state transformation upon heating to form II (P (1) over bar), with the structures exhibiting the same two-dimensional similarity that exists between the R (3) over bar and P (1) over bar forms of carbamazepine.

Family interventions in psychosis: a scale to measure therapist adherence

The efficacy of family interventions in psychosis is well documented. UK and USA schizophrenia treatment guidelines advocate the practice of family interventions within routine clinical services. However, less attention has been paid to the study of treatment fidelity and the tools used in its assessment. This study reports the inter-rater reliability of a new scale: Family Intervention in Psychosis-Adherence Scale (FIPAS). This measure is designed to assess therapist adherence to the Kuipers et al. (2002) family intervention in psychosis treatment manual. Reliability ratings were based on a sample of thirteen audiotapes drawn from a randomized controlled trial of family intervention. The results indicated that the majority of items of the FIPAS had acceptable levels of inter-rater reliability. The findings are discussed in terms of their implications for the training and monitoring of the effectiveness of practitioners for family interventions in psychosis.

What neuroimaging and perceptions of self-other similarity can tell us about the mechanism underlying mentalizing

Carruthers' "mindreading is prior" model postulates one unitary mindreading mechanism working identically for self and other. While we agree about shared mindreading mechanisms, there is also evidence from neuroimaging and mentalizing about dissimilar others that suggest factors that differentially affect self-versus-other mentalizing. Such dissociations suggest greater complexity than the mindreading is prior model allows.