What next for children's services? Can policy at a local or national level have any significant impact on the outcomes for children and their families?

In England at both strategic and operational levels, policy-makers in the public sector have undertaken considerable work on implementing the findings of the Every Child Matters report and subsequently through the Children's Act 2004. Legislation has resulted in many local authorities seeking to implement more holistic approaches to the delivery of children's services. At a strategic level this is demonstrated by the creation of integrated directorate structures providing for a range of services, from education to children's social care. Such services were generally under the management of the Director of Children's Services, holding statutory responsibilities for the delivery of services formally divided into the three sectors of education, health and social services. At a national level, more fundamental policy developments have sought to establish a framework through which policy-makers can address the underlying causes of deprivation, vulnerability and inequality. The Child Poverty Act, 2010, which gained Royal Assent in 2010, provides for a clear intention to reduce the number of children in poverty, acknowledging that ‘the best way to eradicate child poverty is to address the causes of poverty, rather than only treat the symptoms’. However, whilst the policy objectives of both pieces of legislation hold positive aspirations for children and young people, a change of policy direction through a change of government in May 2010 seems to be in direct contrast to the intended focus of these aims. This paper explores the impact of new government policy on the future direction of children's services both at the national and local levels. At the national level, we question the ability of the government to deliver the aspirations of the Child Poverty Act, 2010, given the broad range of influences and factors that can determine the circumstances in which a child may experience poverty. We argue that poverty is not simply an issue of the pressure of financial deprivation, but that economic recession and cuts in government spending will further increase the number of children living in poverty.

An estimate of the global impact of multiple scattering by clouds on outgoing long-wave radiation

Although the potential importance of scattering of long-wave radiation by clouds has been recognised, most studies have concentrated on the impact of high clouds and few estimates of the global impact of scattering have been presented. This study shows that scattering in low clouds has a significant impact on outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) in regions of marine stratocumulus (-3.5 W m(-2) for overcast conditions) where the column water vapour is relatively low. This corresponds to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect of such clouds by 10%. The near-global impact of scattering on OLR is estimated to be -3.0 W m(-2), with low clouds contributing -0.9 W m(-2), mid-level cloud -0.7 W m(-2) and high clouds -1.4 W m(-2). Although this effect appears small compared to the global mean OLR of 240 W m(-2), it indicates that neglect of scattering will lead to an error in cloud long-wave forcing of about 10% and an error in net cloud forcing of about 20%.

A surface and catalytic study of heterogenised Os-3(CO)(12) species in MCM-41 structures

Immobilised Os species prepared via chemical vapour deposition (CVD) of Os-3(CO)(12) onto MCM-41 are active and selective catalysts for the dihydroxylation of trans-stilbene in acetone and water, using N-methylmorpholine N-oxide as the oxidant. A detailed temperature programmed decomposition study of the solids enables to identify the active sites as Os-x(CO)(y) surface species. The initial loading of the MCM-41 with the trinuclear precursor, as well as the temperature of the post-synthesis oxidising treatment, are found to have a significant impact on the structure/geometry of the resulting surface species, and thus their catalytic properties. We show how it is also affected by the confined environment of the MCM-41 mesopores and especially the curvature of the 30 Angstrom diameter channels. Finally, a careful study of the catalytic properties of the materials together with a study of the reactivity of the reaction products under similar conditions enable to suggest a mechanism involving the reaction of the oxidant with the osmium carbonyl surface species to form the catalytically active Os-oxo sites, and the formation of an osmoate-type species (through adsorption of the alkene onto the Os-oxo site) which subsequently reacts with the solvent to produce the diol. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression 2. Impact on the mother-child relationship and child outcome

Background: Postnatal depression is associated with adverse child cognitive and socio-emotional outcome. It is not known whether psychological treatment affects the quality of the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Aims: To evaluate the effect of three psychological treatments on the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193) were assigned randomly to routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy The women and their children, were assessed at 43, [8 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Indications of a positive benefit were limited. All three treatments had a significant benefit on maternal reports of early difficulties in relationships with the infants, counselling gave better infant emotional and behaviour ratings at 18 months and more sensitive early mother-infant interactions. The treatments had no significant impact on maternal management of early infant behaviour problems, security of infant-mother attachment. Infant cognitive development or any child outcome at 5 years. Conclusions: Early intervention was of short-term benefit to the mother-child relationship and infant behaviour problems. More-prolonged intervention may be needed. Health visitors could deliver this.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression - 1. Impact on maternal mood!

Background: Psychological interventions for postnatal depression can be beneficial in the short term but their longer-term impact is unknown, Aims To evaluate the long-term effect on maternal mood of three psychological treatments in relation to routine primary care. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193)were assigned randomly to one of four conditions: routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy. They were assessed immediately after the treatment phase (at 4.5 months) and at 18 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Compared with the control, ail three treatments had a significant impact at 4.5 months on maternal mood (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, EPDS). Only psychodynamic therapy produced a rate of reduction in depression (Structured Clinical interview for DSM III-R) significantly superior to that of the control. The benefit of treatment was no longer apparent by 9 months postpartum, treatment did not reduce subsequent episodes of post-partum depression. Conclusions: Psychological intervention for post-partum depression improves maternal mood (EPDS) in the short term. However, this benefit is not superior to spontaneous remission in the long term.

The impact of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on wind power generation and its potential predictability: a case study over the UK

Over recent years there has been an increasing deployment of renewable energy generation technologies, particularly large-scale wind farms. As wind farm deployment increases, it is vital to gain a good understanding of how the energy produced is affected by climate variations, over a wide range of time-scales, from short (hours to weeks) to long (months to decades) periods. By relating wind speed at specific sites in the UK to a large-scale climate pattern (the North Atlantic Oscillation or "NAO"), the power generated by a modelled wind turbine under three different NAO states is calculated. It was found that the wind conditions under these NAO states may yield a difference in the mean wind power output of up to 10%. A simple model is used to demonstrate that forecasts of future NAO states can potentially be used to improve month-ahead statistical forecasts of monthly-mean wind power generation. The results confirm that the NAO has a significant impact on the hourly-, daily- and monthly-mean power output distributions from the turbine with important implications for (a) the use of meteorological data (e.g. their relationship to large scale climate patterns) in wind farm site assessment and, (b) the utilisation of seasonal-to-decadal climate forecasts to estimate future wind farm power output. This suggests that further research into the links between large-scale climate variability and wind power generation is both necessary and valuable.

The impact of minimum services laws on real estate brokerage competitive intensity

As many as fourteen US states have now mandated minimum service requirements for real estate brokerage relationships in residential transactions. This study attempts to determine whether these minimum service laws have any impact on brokerage competition. Federal government agencies allege such laws discourage competition because they limit the offering of nontraditional brokerage services. However, alternatively, a legislative “bright line” definition of the lowest level of acceptable service may reduce any perceived risk in offering non-traditional brokerage services and therefore encourage competition. Using several empirical strategies and state-level data over nine years (2000-08), we do not find any consistent and significant impact (positive/negative) of minimum services laws on number of licensees per 100 households, our proxy for competition. Interestingly, we also find that association strength, as measured by Realtor association membership penetration, has a strong deterring effect on competition.

Assessing the impact of occupant behaviour on the electricity consumption for lighting and small power in office buildings

Lighting and small power will typically account for more than half of the total electricity consumption in an office building. Significant variations in electricity used by different tenants suggest that occupants can have a significant impact on the electricity demand for these end-uses. Yet current modelling techniques fail to represent the interaction between occupant and the building environment in a realistic manner. Understanding the impact of such behaviours is crucial to improve the methodology behind current energy modelling techniques, aiming to minimise the significant gap between predicted and in-use performance of buildings. A better understanding of the impact of occupant behaviour on electricity consumption can also inform appropriate energy saving strategies focused on behavioural change. This paper reports on a study aiming to assess the intent of occupants to switch off lighting and appliances when not in use in office buildings. Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the assessment takes the form of a questionnaire and investigates three predictors to behaviour individually: 1) behavioural attitude; 2) subjective norms; 3) perceived behavioural control. The paper details the development of the assessment procedure and discusses preliminary findings from the study. The questionnaire results are compared against electricity consumption data for individual zones within a multi-tenanted office building. Initial results demonstrate a statistically significant correlation between perceived behavioural control and energy consumption for lighting and small power

Dietary fat manipulation has a greater impact on postprandial lipid metabolism than the apolipoprotein E (epsilon) genotype: insights from the SATgenε study

Scope: Our aim was to determine the effects of chronic dietary fat manipulation on postprandial lipaemia according to apolipoprotein (APO)E genotype. Methods and results:Men (mean age 53 (SD 9) years), prospectively recruited for the APOE genotype (n = 12 E3/E3, n = 11 E3/E4), were assigned to a low fat (LF), high fat, high-saturated fat (HSF), and HSF diet with 3.45 g/day docosahexaenoic acid (HSF-DHA), each for an 8-week period in the same order. At the end of each dietary period, a postprandial assessment was performed using a test meal with a macronutrient profile representative of that dietary intervention. A variable postprandial plasma triacylglycerol (TAG) response according to APOE genotype was evident, with a greater sensitivity to the TAG-lowering effects of DHA in APOE4 carriers (p ≤ 0.005). There was a lack of an independent genotype effect on any of the lipid measures. In the groups combined, dietary fat manipulation had a significant impact on lipids in plasma and Svedberg flotation rate (Sf) 60–400 TAG-rich lipoprotein fraction, with lower responses following the HSF-DHA than HSF intervention (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Although a modest impact of APOE genotype was observed on the plasma TAG profile, dietary fat manipulation emerged as a greater modulator of the postprandial lipid response in normolipidaemic men.

A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios

Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate cahgne projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment's role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability.

The atmospheric impact of uncertainties in recent Arctic Sea ice reconstructions

There are significant discrepancies between observational datasets of Arctic sea ice concentrations covering the last three decades, which result in differences of over 20% in Arctic summer sea ice extent/area and 5%–10% in winter. Previous modeling studies have shown that idealized sea ice anomalies have the potential for making a substantial impact on climate. In this paper, this theory is further developed by performing a set of simulations using the third Hadley Centre Coupled Atmospheric Model (HadAM3). The model was driven with monthly climatologies of sea ice fractions derived from three of these records to investigate potential implications of sea ice inaccuracies for climate simulations. The standard sea ice climatology from the Met Office provided a control. This study focuses on the effects of actual inaccuracies of concentration retrievals, which vary spatially and are larger in summer than winter. The smaller sea ice discrepancies in winter have a much larger influence on climate than the much greater summer sea ice differences. High sensitivity to sea ice prescription was observed, even though no SST feedbacks were included. Significant effects on surface fields were observed in the Arctic, North Atlantic, and North Pacific. Arctic average surface air temperature anomalies in winter vary by 2.5°C, and locally exceed 12°C. Arctic mean sea level pressure varies by up to 5 mb locally. Anomalies extend to 45°N over North America and Eurasia but not to lower latitudes, and with limited changes in circulation above the boundary layer. No statistically significant impact on climate variability was simulated, in terms of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Results suggest that the uncertainty in summer sea ice prescription is not critical but that winter values require greater accuracy, with the caveats that the influences of ocean–sea ice feedbacks were not included in this study.

Greater impact of dietary fat manipulation than apolipoprotein E genotype on ex-vivo cytokine production – insights from the SATgenε study

Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype is believed to play an important role in cardiovascular risk. APOE4 carriers have been associated with higher blood lipid levels and a more pro-inflammatory state compared with APOE3/E3 individuals. Although dietary fat composition has been considered to modulate the inflammatory state in humans, very little is known about how APOE genotype can impact on this response. In a follow-up to the main SATgene study, we aimed to explore the effects of APOE genotype, as well as, dietary fat manipulation on ex vivo cytokine production. Blood samples were collected from a subset of SATgene participants (n = 52/88), prospectively recruited according to APOE genotype (n = 26 E3/E3 and n = 26 E3/E4) after low-fat (LF), high saturated fat (HSF) and HSF with 3.45 g docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) dietary periods (each diet eight weeks in duration assigned in the same order) for the measurement of ex vivo cytokine production using whole blood culture (WBC). Concentrations of IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10 and TNF-alpha were measured in WBC supernatant samples after stimulation for 24 h with either 0.05 or 1 lg/ml of bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Cytokine levels were not influenced by genotype, whereas, dietary fat manipulation had a significant impact on TNF-a and IL-10 production; TNF-a concentration was higher after consumption of the HSF diet compared with baseline and the LF diet (P < 0.05), whereas, IL-10 concentration was higher after the LF diet compared with baseline (P < 0.05). In conclusion, our study has revealed the amount and type of dietary fat can significantly modulate the production of TNF-a and IL-10 by ex vivo LPS-stimulated WBC samples obtained from normolipidaemic subjects.

A new understanding of El Niño's impact over East Asia: dominance of the ENSO combination mode

Previous studies have shown that the Indo-Pacific atmospheric response to ENSO comprises two dominant modes of variability: a meridionally quasi-symmetric response (independent from the annual cycle) and an anti-symmetric response (arising from the nonlinear atmospheric interaction between ENSO variability and the annual cycle), referred to as the combination mode (C-Mode). This study demonstrates that the direct El Niño signal over the tropics is confined to the equatorial region and has no significant impact on the atmospheric response over East Asia. The El Niño-associated equatorial anomalies can be expanded towards off-equatorial regions by the C-Mode through ENSO’s interaction with the annual cycle. The C-Mode is the prime driver for the development of an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the El Niño decay phase, which usually transports more moisture to East Asia and thereby causes more precipitation over southern China. We use an Atmospheric General Circulation Model that well reproduces the WNP anticyclonic anomalies when both El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies as well as the SST annual cycle are prescribed as boundary conditions. However, no significant WNP anticyclonic circulation anomaly appears during the El Niño decay phase when excluding the SST annual cycle. Our analyses of observational data and model experiments suggest that the annual cycle plays a key role in the East Asian climate anomalies associated with El Niño through their nonlinear atmospheric interaction. Hence, a realistic simulation of the annual cycle is crucial in order to correctly capture the ENSO-associated climate anomalies over East Asia.

Palaeoenvironmental evidence for the impact of the crusades on the local and regional environment of medieval (13th–16th century) northern Latvia, eastern Baltic

This paper evaluates the impact of the crusades on the landscape and environment of northern Latvia between the 13th–16th centuries (medieval Livonia). The crusades replaced tribal societies in the eastern Baltic with a religious state (Ordenstaat) run by the military orders and their allies, accompanied by significant social, cultural and economic developments. These changes have previously received little consideration in palaeoenvironmental studies of past land use in the eastern Baltic region, but are fundamental to understanding the development and expansion of a European Christian identity. Sediment cores from Lake Trikāta, located adjacent to a medieval castle and settlement, were studied using pollen, macrofossils, loss-on-ignition and magnetic susceptibility. Our results show that despite continuous agricultural land use from 500 BC, the local landscape was still densely wooded until the start of the crusades in AD 1198 when a diversified pattern of pasture, meadow and arable land use was established. Colonisation followed the crusades, although in Livonia this occurred on a much smaller scale than in the rest of the Ordenstaat; Trikāta is atypical showing significant impact following the crusades with many other palaeoenvironmental studies only revealing more limited impact from the 14th century and later. Subsequent wars and changes in political control in the post-medieval period had little apparent effect on agricultural land use.

The impact of deregulation and re-regulation on bank efficiency: evidence from Asia

Following the 1997 crisis, banking sector reforms in Asia have been characterised by the emphasis on prudential regulation, associated with increased financial liberalisation. Using a panel data set of commercial banks from eight major Asian economies over the period 2001-2010, this study explores how the coexistence of liberalisation and prudential regulation affects banks’ cost characteristics. Given the presence of heterogeneity of technologies across countries, we use a stochastic frontier approach followed by the estimation of a deterministic meta-frontier to provide ‘true’ estimates of bank cost efficiency measures. Our results show that the liberalization of bank interest rates and the increase in foreign banks' presence have had a positive and significant impact on technological progress and cost efficiency. On the other hand, we find that prudential regulation might adversely affect bank cost performance. When designing an optimal regulatory framework, policy makers should combine policies which aim to foster financial stability without hindering financial intermediation.