Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful?

A new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.

Quantifying the response of the ORAC aerosol optical depth retrieval for MSG SEVIRI to aerosol model assumptions

We test the response of the Oxford-RAL Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) retrieval algorithm for MSG SEVIRI to changes in the aerosol properties used in the dust aerosol model, using data from the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) flight campaign in August 2006. We find that using the observed DODO free tropospheric aerosol size distribution and refractive index increases simulated top of the atmosphere radiance at 0.55 µm assuming a fixed erosol optical depth of 0.5 by 10–15 %, reaching a maximum difference at low solar zenith angles. We test the sensitivity of the retrieval to the vertical distribution f the aerosol and find that this is unimportant in determining simulated radiance at 0.55 µm. We also test the ability of the ORAC retrieval when used to produce the GlobAerosol dataset to correctly identify continental aerosol outflow from the African continent and we find that it poorly constrains aerosol speciation. We develop spatially and temporally resolved prior distributions of aerosols to inform the retrieval which incorporates five aerosol models: desert dust, maritime, biomass burning, urban and continental. We use a Saharan Dust Index and the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model to describe dust and biomass burning aerosol outflow, and compare AOD using our speciation against the GlobAerosol retrieval during January and July 2006. We find AOD discrepancies of 0.2–1 over regions of intense biomass burning outflow, where AOD from our aerosol speciation and GlobAerosol speciation can differ by as much as 50 - 70 %.

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) and mitigation) in order to provide assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and other VIA challenges. The scenario framework is organised around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments, comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across communities.

On the quantum mechanical scattering statistics of many particles

The probability of a quantum particle being detected in a given solid angle is determined by the S-matrix. The explanation of this fact in time-dependent scattering theory is often linked to the quantum flux, since the quantum flux integrated against a (detector-) surface and over a time interval can be viewed as the probability that the particle crosses this surface within the given time interval. Regarding many particle scattering, however, this argument is no longer valid, as each particle arrives at the detector at its own random time. While various treatments of this problem can be envisaged, here we present a straightforward Bohmian analysis of many particle potential scattering from which the S-matrix probability emerges in the limit of large distances.

On the long time behavior of free stochastic Schrödinger evolutions

We discuss the time evolution of the wave function which is the solution of a stochastic Schrödinger equation describing the dynamics of a free quantum particle subject to spontaneous localizations in space. We prove global existence and uniqueness of solutions. We observe that there exist three time regimes: the collapse regime, the classical regime and the diffusive regime. Concerning the latter, we assert that the general solution converges almost surely to a diffusing Gaussian wave function having a finite spread both in position as well as in momentum. This paper corrects and completes earlier works on this issue.

On a stochastic Trotter formula with application to spontaneous localization models

We consider the relation between so called continuous localization models—i.e. non-linear stochastic Schrödinger evolutions—and the discrete GRW-model of wave function collapse. The former can be understood as scaling limit of the GRW process. The proof relies on a stochastic Trotter formula, which is of interest in its own right. Our Trotter formula also allows to complement results on existence theory of stochastic Schrödinger evolutions by Holevo and Mora/Rebolledo.

On the time-dependent analysis of Gamow decay

Gamow's explanation of the exponential decay law uses complex 'eigenvalues' and exponentially growing 'eigenfunctions'. This raises the question, how Gamow's description fits into the quantum mechanical description of nature, which is based on real eigenvalues and square integrable wavefunctions. Observing that the time evolution of any wavefunction is given by its expansion in generalized eigenfunctions, we shall answer this question in the most straightforward manner, which at the same time is accessible to graduate students and specialists. Moreover, the presentation can well be used in physics lectures to students.

Towards global drought early warning capability: expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for global drought monitoring and forecasting

Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts and especially 47 on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF) and the recent progress made towards its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global real-time drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental to global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in-situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress towards meeting these challenges and developing a global system.

Competition for land

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future.

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship of future climate change and adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al.; O’Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. A key goal of the current framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community

Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate the decrease in tropical cyclone numbers previously shown to be a common response of climate models in a warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one-fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models, but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high and low rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

The reception of T. S. Bayer’s 'Historia Regni Graecorum Bactriani' (1738)

Theophilus (Gottlieb) Siegfried Bayer (1694-1738) is usually credited as the first person in modern times to address the history of the Greeks in Bactria in a serious way. Bayer’s Historia Regni Graecorum Bactriani, brings together numismatic and historical research. He describes two Graeco-Bactrian coins which he was able to examine first hand, and collects and comments upon the Classical historical sources on the Greek kingdoms of Bactria and India. It was published in St. Petersburg in 1738, where Bayer, a German, held an academic position. In this short article, I am interested in two questions surrounding the Historia Regni Graecorum Bactriani. First (and relatively briefly), how Bayer conducted his research without first hand access to source material and without himself travelling in Bactria – or indeed further east than St. Petersburg. Secondly, the way in which Bayer’s scholarship was received by some of his contemporaries and by later writers, outside the field of Bactrian studies.