Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal

Wine production is largely governed by atmospheric conditions, such as air temperature and precipitation, together with soil management and viticultural/enological practices. Therefore, anthropogenic climate change is likely to have important impacts on the winemaking sector worldwide. An important winemaking region is the Portuguese Douro Valley, which is known by its world-famous Port Wine. The identification of robust relationships between atmospheric factors and wine parameters is of great relevance for the region. A multivariate linear regression analysis of a long wine production series (1932–2010) reveals that high rainfall and cool temperatures during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development (February-March) and warm temperatures during flowering and berry development (May) are generally favourable to high production. The probabilities of occurrence of three production categories (low, normal and high) are also modelled using multinomial logistic regression. Results show that both statistical models are valuable tools for predicting the production in a given year with a lead time of 3–4 months prior to harvest. These statistical models are applied to an ensemble of 16 regional climate model experiments following the SRES A1B scenario to estimate possible future changes. Wine production is projected to increase by about 10 % by the end of the 21st century, while the occurrence of high production years is expected to increase from 25 % to over 60 %. Nevertheless, further model development will be needed to include other aspects that may shape production in the future. In particular, the rising heat stress and/or changes in ripening conditions could limit the projected production increase in future decades.

Climate change impacts in the design of drainage systems: case study of Portugal

This paper aims to assess the necessity of updating the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves used in Portugal to design building storm-water drainage systems. A comparative analysis of the design was performed for the three predefined rainfall regions in Portugal using the IDF curves currently in use and estimated for future decades. Data for recent and future climate conditions simulated by a global and regional climate model chain are used to estimate possible changes of rainfall extremes and its implications for the drainage systems. The methodology includes the disaggregation of precipitation up to subhourly scales, the robust development of IDF curves, and the correction of model bias. Obtained results indicate that projected changes are largest for the plains in southern Portugal (5–33%) than for mountainous regions (3–9%) and that these trends are consistent with projected changes in the long-term 95th percentile of the daily precipitation throughout the 21st century. The authors conclude there is a need to review the current precipitation regime classification and change the new drainage systems towards larger dimensions to mitigate the projected changes in extreme precipitation.

Effects of enrichment of refined olive oil with phenolic compounds from olive leaves

The possibility of preparing olive oil, with the same nutritional value and stability characteristics found in virgin olive oil, by the enrichment of refined olive oil with olive leaf polyphenols was studied. To obtain antioxidant phenols similar to those found in virgin olive oil, these components were extracted from the leaves of several olive cultivars from the Northern region of Portugal, namely, Carrasca, Ripa, Negruche, Cordovil, Verdeal, Madural, and Bical cultivars, under several conditions. The concentration of a leaf extract required for addition to refined olive oil to obtain the same stability as virgin olive oil was determined. The extract from 1 kg of leaves was sufficient to fortify 50-320 L of refined olive oil to a similar stability as a virgin olive oil sample depending on the metal concentration of the oil, cultivar, and time of the year when the leaves were picked.

The Spanish Ambassador and Samuel Daniel's Vision of the Twelve Goddesses: A New Document [with text]

The performance of Samuel Daniel's masque The Vision of the Twelve Goddesses at court on January 8, 1604 took place in the midst of the preliminary negotiations that would lead to the signing of the Anglo-Spanish peace at Somerset House the following August. Philip III sent a special ambassador to England to congratulate James on his accession, and a series of tussles between Juan de Tassis and his French counterpart ensued. As a recently-discovered document in the Archivo General de Simancas reveals, Anna of Denmark intervened personally to insure that de Tassis, and not the Frenchman, attended the masque. This was a clear signal of James and Anna's peace aims, which de Tassis conveyed to the King of Spain; moreover, he enclosed in his dispatch a text of Daniel's masque which he clearly considered both political intelligence and of interest to the theater-loving Hapsburg monarch. The Simancas text of the Daniel masque is a new version, hitherto unknown, which adds to our knowledge of the circumstances in which the first Stuart masque was performed. Here we present a transcription and annotated translation of both de Tassis' letter and the text of the masque he had compiled for Philip III. (B. C.-E. and M. H.)

Euthydemoss of Bactria

Euthydemos I (ca. 260–200 bce) was king of Bactria from around 230. He founded a dynasty which, most notably under his son Demetrios I, extended the control of the Greco-Bactrian kings south of the Hindu Kush into Arachosia and India.

The credit relationship between Henry III and merchants of Douai and Ypres, 1247-70

This article looks at an important but neglected aspect of medieval sovereign debt, namely ‘accounts payable’ owed by the Crown to merchants and employees. It focuses on the unusually well-documented relationship between Henry III, King of England between 1216 and 1272, and Flemish merchants from the towns of Douai and Ypres, who provided cloth on credit to the royal wardrobe. From the surviving royal documents, we reconstruct the credit advanced to the royal wardrobe by the merchants of Ypres and Douai for each year between 1247 and 1270, together with the king's repayment history. The interactions between the king and the merchants are then analysed. The insights from this analysis are applied to the historical data to explain the trading decisions made by the merchants during this period, as well as why the strategies of the Yprois sometimes differed from those of the Douaissiens.

Catchment phosphorous losses: an export coefficient modelling approach with scenario analysis for water management

This paper presents the development of an export coefficient model to characterise the rates and sources of P export from land to water in four reservoir systems located in a semi-arid rural region in southern of Portugal. The model was developed to enable effective management of these important water resource systems under the EU Water Framework Directive. This is the first time such an approach has been fully adapted for the semi-arid systems typical of Mediterranean Europe. The sources of P loading delivered to each reservoir from its catchment were determined and scenario analysis was undertaken to predict the likely impact of catchment management strategies on the scale of rate of P loading delivered to each water body from its catchment. The results indicate the importance of farming and sewage treatment works/collective septic tanks discharges as the main contributors to the total diffuse and point source P loading delivered to the reservoirs, respectively. A reduction in the total P loading for all study areas would require control of farming practices and more efficient removal of P from human wastes prior to discharge to surface waters. The scenario analysis indicates a strategy based solely on reducing the agricultural P surplus may result in only a slow improvement in water quality, which would be unlikely to support the generation of good ecological status in reservoirs. The model application indicates that a reduction of P-inputs to the reservoirs should first focus on reducing P loading from sewage effluent discharges through the introduction of tertiary treatment (P-stripping) in all major residential areas. The fully calibrated export coefficient modelling approach transferred well to semi-arid regions, with the only significant limitation being the availability of suitable input data to drive the model. Further studies using this approach in semi-arid catchments are now needed to increase the knowledge of nutrient export behaviours in semi-arid regions.