Geoarchaeological investigations of midden-formation processes in the early to late Neolithic levels at Catalhoyuk, Turkey ca. 8550-8370 cal BP.

Anthropogenic midden deposits are remarkably well preserved at the Neolithic settlement of atalhöyük and provide significant archaeological information on the types and nature of activities occurring at the site. To decipher their complex stratigraphy and to investigate formation processes, a combination of geoarchaeological techniques was used. Deposits were investigated from the early ceramic to late Neolithic levels, targeting continuous sequences to examine high resolution and broader scale changes in deposition. Thin-section micromorphology combined with targeted phytolith and geochemical analyses indicates they are composed of a diverse range of ashes and other charred and siliceous plant materials, with inputs of decayed plants and organic matter, fecal waste, and sedimentary aggregates, each with diverse depositional pathways. Activities identified include in situ burning, with a range of different fuel types that may be associated with different activities. The complexity and heterogeneity of the midden deposits, and thus the necessity of employing an integrated microstratigraphic approach is demonstrated, as a prerequisite for cultural and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.

Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate. We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns.

Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean

Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations--but with larger amplitude--are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August­-September-­October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circulation rather than simply reflecting a thermodynamic response to the warming or cooling of the ocean. The tropical climate response is primarily forced by the tropical SST anomalies, and the major features are in line with simple models of the tropical circulation response to diabatic heating anomalies. The extratropical climate response is influenced both by tropical and higher-latitude SST anomalies and exhibits nonlinear sensitivity to the sign of the SST forcing. Comparisons with multidecadal changes in sea level pressure observed in the twentieth century support the conclusion that the impact of North Atlantic SST change is most important in summer, but also suggest a significant influence in lower latitudes in autumn and winter. Significant climate impacts are not restricted to the Atlantic basin, implying that the Atlantic Ocean could be an important driver of global decadal variability. The strongest remote impacts are found to occur in the tropical Pacific region in June­-August and September­-November. Surface anomalies in this region have the potential to excite coupled ocean­atmosphere feedbacks, which are likely to play an important role in shaping the ultimate climate response.

The influence of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus ssp oleifera var. biennis) canopy size on grass weed growth and grass weed seed return

Four experiments conducted over three seasons (2002-05) at the Crops Research Unit, University of Reading, investigated effects of canopy management of autumn sown oilseed rape (Brassica napus L. ssp. oleifera var. biennis (DC.) Metzg.) on competition with grass weeds. Emphasis was placed on the effect of the crop on the weeds. Rape canopy size was manipulated using sowing date, seed rate and the application of autumn fertilizer. Lolium multiflorum Lam., L. x boucheanum Kunth and Alopecurus myosuroides Huds. were sown as indicative grass weeds. The effects of sowing date, seed rate and autumn nitrogen on crop competitive ability were correlated with rape biomass and fractional interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by the rape floral layer, to the extent that by spring there was good evidence of crop: weed replacement. An increase in seed rate up to the highest plant densities tested increased both rape biomass and competitiveness, e.g. in 2002/3, L. multiflorum head density was reduced from 539 to 245 heads/m(2) and spikelet density from 13 170 to 5960 spikelets/m(2) when rape plant density was increased from 16 to 81 plants/m(2). Spikelets/head of Lolium spp. was little affected by rape seed rate, but the length of heads of A. myosuroides was reduced by 9 % when plant density was increased from 29-51 plants/m(2). Autumn nitrogen increased rape biomass and reduced L. multiflorum head density (415 and 336 heads/m(2) without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively) and spikelet density (9990 and 8220 spikelets/m(2) without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively). The number of spikelets/head was not significantly affected by autumn nitrogen. Early sowing could increase biomass and competitiveness, but poor crop establishment sometimes overrode the effect. Where crop and weed establishment was similar for both sowing dates, a 2-week delay (i.e. early September to mid-September) increased L. multiflorum head density from 226 to 633 heads/m(2) and spikelet density from 5780 to 15 060 spikelets/m(2).

A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

Disease-weather relationships influencing Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) preceding growth stage (GS) 31 were identified using data from 12 sites in the UK covering 8 years. Based on these relationships, an early-warning predictive model for SLB on winter wheat was formulated to predict the occurrence of a damaging epidemic (defined as disease severity of 5% or > 5% on the top three leaf layers). The final model was based on accumulated rain > 3 mm in the 80-day period preceding GS 31 (roughly from early-February to the end of April) and accumulated minimum temperature with a 0A degrees C base in the 50-day period starting from 120 days preceding GS 31 (approximately January and February). The model was validated on an independent data set on which the prediction accuracy was influenced by cultivar resistance. Over all observations, the model had a true positive proportion of 0.61, a true negative proportion of 0.73, a sensitivity of 0.83, and a specificity of 0.18. True negative proportion increased to 0.85 for resistant cultivars and decreased to 0.50 for susceptible cultivars. Potential fungicide savings are most likely to be made with resistant cultivars, but such benefits would need to be identified with an in-depth evaluation.

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to he stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase H and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The influence of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus ssp. oleifera var. biennis) cultivar and grass genotype on the competitive balance between crop and grass weeds

Four experiments conducted over three seasons (2002–05) at the Crops Research Unit, University of Reading, investigated effects of canopy management of autumn sown oilseed rape (Brassica napus L. ssp. oleifera var. biennis (DC.) Metzg.) on competition with grass weeds. Emphasis was placed on the effect of the crop on the weeds. Rape canopy size was manipulated using sowing date, seed rate and the application of autumn fertilizer. Lolium multiflorum Lam., L.rboucheanum Kunth and Alopecurus myosuroides Huds. were sown as indicative grass weeds. The effects of sowing date, seed rate and autumn nitrogen on crop competitive ability were correlated with rape biomass and fractional interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by the rape floral layer, to the extent that by spring there was good evidence of crop: weed replacement. An increase in seed rate up to the highest plant densities tested increased both rape biomass and competitiveness, e.g. in 2002/3, L. multiflorum head density was reduced from 539 to 245 heads/m2 and spikelet density from 13 170 to 5960 spikelets/m2 when rape plant density was increased from 16 to 81 plants/m2. Spikelets/head of Lolium spp. was little affected by rape seed rate, but the length of heads of A. myosuroides was reduced by 9%when plant density was increased from 29–51 plants/m2. Autumn nitrogen increased rape biomass and reduced L. multiflorum head density (415 and 336 heads/m2 without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively) and spikelet density (9990 and 8220 spikelets/m2 without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively). The number of spikelets/head was not significantly affected by autumn nitrogen. Early sowing could increase biomass and competitiveness, but poor crop establishment sometimes overrode the effect. Where crop and weed establishment was similar for both sowing dates, a 2-week delay (i.e. early September to mid-September) increased L. multiflorum head density from 226 to 633 heads/m2 and spikelet density from 5780 to 15 060 spikelets/m2.

The influence of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus ssp oleifera var. biennis) canopy size on grass weed growth and grass weed seed return

Four experiments conducted over three seasons (2002-05) at the Crops Research Unit, University of Reading, investigated effects of canopy management of autumn sown oilseed rape (Brassica napus L. ssp. oleifera var. biennis (DC.) Metzg.) on competition with grass weeds. Emphasis was placed on the effect of the crop on the weeds. Rape canopy size was manipulated using sowing date, seed rate and the application of autumn fertilizer. Lolium multiflorum Lam., L. x boucheanum Kunth and Alopecurus myosuroides Huds. were sown as indicative grass weeds. The effects of sowing date, seed rate and autumn nitrogen on crop competitive ability were correlated with rape biomass and fractional interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by the rape floral layer, to the extent that by spring there was good evidence of crop: weed replacement. An increase in seed rate up to the highest plant densities tested increased both rape biomass and competitiveness, e.g. in 2002/3, L. multiflorum head density was reduced from 539 to 245 heads/m(2) and spikelet density from 13 170 to 5960 spikelets/m(2) when rape plant density was increased from 16 to 81 plants/m(2). Spikelets/head of Lolium spp. was little affected by rape seed rate, but the length of heads of A. myosuroides was reduced by 9 % when plant density was increased from 29-51 plants/m(2). Autumn nitrogen increased rape biomass and reduced L. multiflorum head density (415 and 336 heads/m(2) without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively) and spikelet density (9990 and 8220 spikelets/m(2) without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively). The number of spikelets/head was not significantly affected by autumn nitrogen. Early sowing could increase biomass and competitiveness, but poor crop establishment sometimes overrode the effect. Where crop and weed establishment was similar for both sowing dates, a 2-week delay (i.e. early September to mid-September) increased L. multiflorum head density from 226 to 633 heads/m(2) and spikelet density from 5780 to 15 060 spikelets/m(2).

Regulated deficit irrigation - a means to control growth in woody ornamentals

Improving plant quality and the uniformity of a crop are major objectives for growers of ornamental nursery stock. The potential to control excess vigour and to improve quality through regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) was investigated using a range of woody ornamental species. RDI regimes reduced vegetative growth consistently across different species and growing seasons. Plants adapted to reduced water supplies primarily via stomatal control, but also by osmotic adjustment when grown under the most severe RDI regimes. Only plants exposed to <= 25% of potential evapo-transpiration demonstrated any evidence of leaf injury, and the extent was slight. Growth inhibition increased as the severity of RDI increased. Improvements in quality were attained through a combination of shorter internodes and final shoot lengths, yet the number of 'formative' primary shoots remained unaffected. Compact, well-branched plants could be formed without a requirement for mid-season pruning. In addition to severity, the timing of RDI also influenced growth responses. Applying 50% ETp for 8 weeks during July-August resulted in the formation of good quality plants, which retained their shape until the following Spring. Re-positioning irrigation drippers within the pots of well-watered plants, in an attempt to induce a partial root drying (PRD) treatment, reduced growth, but not significantly. The adoption of irrigation scheduling, based on 50-100% ETp, has the potential to improve commercial crop quality across a range of ornamental species.

Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution

Substantial low-frequency rainfall fluctuations occurred in the Sahel throughout the twentieth century, causing devastating drought. Modeling these low-frequency rainfall fluctuations has remained problematic for climate models for many years. Here we show using a combination of state-of-the-art rainfall observations and high-resolution global climate models that changes in organized heavy rainfall events carry most of the rainfall variability in the Sahel at multiannual to decadal time scales. Ability to produce intense, organized convection allows climate models to correctly simulate the magnitude of late-twentieth century rainfall change, underlining the importance of model resolution. Increasing model resolution allows a better coupling between large-scale circulation changes and regional rainfall processes over the Sahel. These results provide a strong basis for developing more reliable and skilful long-term predictions of rainfall (seasons to years) which could benefit many sectors in the region by allowing early adaptation to impending extremes.