The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.

Benchmarking 2D hydraulic models for urban flooding

This paper describes benchmark testing of six two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic models (DIVAST, DIVASTTVD, TUFLOW, JFLOW, TRENT and LISFLOOD-FP) in terms of their ability to simulate surface flows in a densely urbanised area. The models are applied to a 1·0 km × 0·4 km urban catchment within the city of Glasgow, Scotland, UK, and are used to simulate a flood event that occurred at this site on 30 July 2002. An identical numerical grid describing the underlying topography is constructed for each model, using a combination of airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) fused with digital map data, and used to run a benchmark simulation. Two numerical experiments were then conducted to test the response of each model to topographic error and uncertainty over friction parameterisation. While all the models tested produce plausible results, subtle differences between particular groups of codes give considerable insight into both the practice and science of urban hydraulic modelling. In particular, the results show that the terrain data available from modern LiDAR systems are sufficiently accurate and resolved for simulating urban flows, but such data need to be fused with digital map data of building topology and land use to gain maximum benefit from the information contained therein. When such terrain data are available, uncertainty in friction parameters becomes a more dominant factor than topographic error for typical problems. The simulations also show that flows in urban environments are characterised by numerous transitions to supercritical flow and numerical shocks. However, the effects of these are localised and they do not appear to affect overall wave propagation. In contrast, inertia terms are shown to be important in this particular case, but the specific characteristics of the test site may mean that this does not hold more generally.

Seasonal variations of the physical and optical characteristics of Saharan Dust: results from the Dust outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) experiment

North African dust is important for climate through its direct radiative effect on solar and terrestrial radiation and its role in the biogeochemical system. The Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean project (DODO) aimed to characterize the physical and optical properties of airborne North African dust in two seasons and to use these observations to constrain model simulations, with the ultimate aim of being able to quantify the deposition of iron to the North Atlantic Ocean. The in situ properties of dust from airborne campaigns measured during February and August 2006, based at Dakar, Senegal, are presented here. Average values of the single scattering albedo (0.99, 0.98), mass specific extinction (0.85 m^2 g^-1 , 1.14 m^2 g^-1 ), asymmetry parameter (0.68, 0.68), and refractive index (1.53--0.0005i,1.53--0.0014i) for the accumulation mode were found to differ by varying degrees between the dry and wet season, respectively. It is hypothesized that these differences are due to different source regions and transport processes which also differ between the DODO campaigns. Elemental ratios of Ca/Al were found to differ between the dry and wet season (1.1 and 0.5, respectively). Differences in vertical profiles are found between seasons and between land and ocean locations and reflect the different dynamics of the seasons. Using measurements of the coarse mode size distribution and illustrative Mie calculations, the optical properties are found to be very sensitive to the presence and amount of coarse mode of mineral dust, and the importance of accurate measurements of the coarse mode of dust is highlighted.

Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.

Seasonal deposition of Holocene banded sediments in the Severn Estuary Levels (southwest Britain): palynological and sedimentological evidence

Banded sediments outcrop widely in the intertidal zone of the Severn Estuary and have been suggested, on the basis of textural analysis, to have formed in response to seasonal variations in sea temperature and windiness (Holocene, 14 (2004) 536). Here palynological and sedimentological analyses of banded sediments of mid-Holocene date from Gold Cliff, on the Welsh side of the Severn Estuary, are combined to test and further develop the hypothesis of seasonal deposition. Pollen percentage and concentration data are presented from a short sequence of bands to establish whether textural variations in the bands coincide with variations in pollen content reflecting seasonal flowering patterns. It is shown that fine-grained band parts contain higher total pollen concentrations, and a higher proportion of pollen from late spring- to summer-flowering plants, than coarse-grained band parts. Pollen in the coarser deposits appears primarily to reflect deposition from the buffering `reservoir' of suspended pollen in the estuarine water-body and from rivers, when there is little pollen in the air in winter, while the finer sediments contain pollen deposited from the atmosphere during the flowering season, superimposed on these `background' sources. The potential of such deposits for refining chronologies and identifying seasonality of coastal processes is noted, and the results of charcoal particle analysis of the bands presented as an example of how they have the potential to shed light on seasonal and annual patterns of human activity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trace fossils and pseudofossils from the Wealden strata (non-marine Lower Cretaceous) of southern England

The trace fossils of the Wealden (non-marine Lower Cretaceous) of southern England are described. Sixteen invertebrate ichnotaxa include Agrichnium fimbriatus, Beaconites antarcticus, B. barretti, Cochlichnus anguineus, Diplichnites triassicus, Diplocraterion parallelum, Lockeia siliquaria, L. serialis, Monocraterion cf. tentaculum, Palaeophycus striatus, P. tubularis, Planolites montanus, Protovirgularia rugosa, Rhizocorallium isp., Scoyenia cf. gracilis, Unisulcus minutus, insect and root traces. Tetrapod tracks and trackways include tridactyl Iguanodontipus burreyi and other ornithopods, theropod, and tetradactyl sauropod (or possibly ankylosaur), together with extensive dinosaur tramplings. Coprolites are referred to two broad types: spiral, with or without included fish scales (attributable to sharks), and elongate and irregular (possibly produced by reptiles). A skinprint and two types of pseudofossil are also included. Five environmental associations are recognised: (1) lacustrine/lagoonal; (2) brackish incursions (flooding events) into the lacustrine/lagoonal environment; (3) a marginal lacustrine association with fluvial input; (4) a fluvial (lacustrine delta) association; (5) floodplain sediments (seasonal wetlands). These associations are assigned to the fluvial-lacustrine Scoyenia Ichnofacies and the incursions to Glossifungites lchnofacies. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal trends in the stable isotopic composition of snow and meltwater runoff in a subarctic catchment at Okstindan, Norway

Seasonal variations in the stable isotopic composition of snow and meltwater were investigated in a sub-arctic, mountainous, but non-glacial, catchment at Okstindan in northern Norway based on analyses of delta(18)O and deltaD. Samples were collected during four field periods (August 1998; April 1999; June 1999 and August 1999) at three sites lying on an altitudinal transect (740-970 m a.s.l.). Snowpack data display an increase in the mean values of delta(18)O (increasing from a mean value of - 13.51 to - 11.49% between April and August), as well as a decrease in variability through the melt period. Comparison with a regional meteoric water line indicates that the slope of the delta(18)O - deltaD line for the snowpacks decreases over the same period, dropping from 7.49 to approximately 6.2. This change points to the role of evaporation in snowpack ablation and is confirmed by the vertical profile of deuterium excess. Snowpack seepage data, although limited, also suggest reduced values of deltaD, as might be associated with local evaporation during meltwater generation. In general, meltwaters were depleted in delta(18)O relative to the source snowpack at the peak of the melt (June), but later in the year (August) the difference between the two was not statistically significant. The diurnal pattern of isotopic composition indicates that the most depleted meltwaters coincide with the peak in temperature and, hence, meltwater production.

Long-term change, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in climate and glacier mass balance in the Central Greater Caucasus, Russia

Long-term trends, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in the mass-balance record from Djankuat glacier, central Greater Caucasus, Russia, are related to local climate change, synoptic and large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation. A clear warming signal emerged in the central Greater Caucasus in the early 1990s, leading to a strong increase in ablation. In the absence of a compensating change in winter accumulation, the net mass balance of Djankuat has declined. The highest value of seasonal ablation on record was registered in the summer of 2000. At the beginning of the 21st century these trends reversed. Ablation was below average even in the summer of 2003, which was unusually warm in western Europe. Precipitation and winter accumulation were high, allowing for a partial recovery of net mass balance. The interannual variability in the components of mass balance is weakly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian teleconnection patterns, but there is a clear link with the large-scale circulation anomalies represented by the Rossby pattern. Five synoptic categories have been identified for the ablation season of 2005, revealing a strong separation between components of radiation budget, air temperature and daily melt. Air temperature is the main control over melt. The highest values of daily ablation are related to the strongly positive NAO which forces high net radiation, and to the warm and moist advection from the Black Sea.

Morphology, biomass and nutrient status of fine roots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) as influenced by seasonal fluctuations in soil moisture and soil solution chemistry

A field monitoring study was carried out to follow the changes of fine root morphology, biomass and nutrient status in relation to seasonal changes in soil solution chemistry and moisture regime in a mature Scots pine stand on acid soil. Seasonal and yearly fluctuations in soil moisture and soil solution chemistry have been observed. Changes in soil moisture accounted for some of the changes in the soil solution chemistry. The results showed that when natural acidification in the soil occurs with low pH (3.5-4.2) and high aluminium concentration in the soil solution (> 3-10 mg l(-1)), fine root longevity and distribution could be affected. However, fine root growth of Scots pine may not be negatively influenced by adverse soil chemical conditions if soil moisture is not a limiting factor for root growth. In contrast, dry soil conditions increase Scots pine susceptibility to soil acidification and this could significantly reduce fine root growth and increase root mortality. It is therefore important to study seasonal fluctuations of the environmental variables when investigating and modelling cause-effect relationships.

Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. Seasonal forecasting

A seasonal forecasting system that is capable of skilfully predicting rainfall totals on a regional scale would be of great value to Ethiopia. Here, we describe how a statistical model can exploit the teleconnections described in part 1 of this pair of papers to develop such a system. We show that, in most cases, the predictors selected objectively by the statistical model can be interpreted in the light of physical teleconnections with Ethiopian rainfall, and discuss why, in some cases, unexpected regions are chosen as predictors. We show that the forecast has skill in all parts of Ethiopia, and argue that this method could provide the basis of an operational seasonal forecasting system for Ethiopia.

Cloud properties and their seasonal and diurnal variability from TOVS path-B

Eight years of cloud properties retrieved from Television Infrared Observation Satellite-N (TIROS-N) Observational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations aboard the NOAA polar orbiting satellites are presented. The relatively high spectral resolution of these instruments in the infrared allows especially reliable cirrus identification day and night. This dataset therefore provides complementary information to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). According to this dataset, cirrus clouds cover about 27% of the earth and 45% of the Tropics, whereas ISCCP reports 19% and 25%, respectively. Both global datasets agree within 5% on the amount of single-layer low clouds, at 30%. From 1987 to 1995, global cloud amounts remained stable to within 2%. The seasonal cycle of cloud amount is in general stronger than its diurnal cycle and it is stronger than the one of effective cloud amount, the latter the relevant variable for radiative transfer. Maximum effective low cloud amount over ocean occurs in winter in SH subtropics in the early morning hours and in NH midlatitudes without diurnal cycle. Over land in winter the maximum is in the early afternoon, accompanied in the midlatitudes by thin cirrus. Over tropical land and in the other regions in summer, the maximum of mesoscale high opaque clouds occurs in the evening. Cirrus also increases during the afternoon and persists during night and early morning. The maximum of thin cirrus is in the early afternoon, then decreases slowly while cirrus and high opaque clouds increase. TOVS extends information of ISCCP during night, indicating that high cloudiness, increasing during the afternoon, persists longer during night in the Tropics and subtropics than in midlatitudes. A comparison of seasonal and diurnal cycle of high cloud amount between South America, Africa, and Indonesia during boreal winter has shown strong similarities between the two land regions, whereas the Indonesian islands show a seasonal and diurnal behavior strongly influenced by the surrounding ocean. Deeper precipitation systems over Africa than over South America do not seem to be directly reflected in the horizontal coverage and mesoscale effective emissivity of high clouds.

Toward an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: ( i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and ( ii) a multimodel system composed of three European coupled ocean - atmosphere models. Three-month lead austral summer rainfall predictions produced by the components of the system are integrated ( i. e., combined and calibrated) using a Bayesian forecast assimilation procedure. The skill of empirical, coupled multimodel, and integrated forecasts obtained with forecast assimilation is assessed and compared. The simple coupled multimodel ensemble has a comparable level of skill to that obtained using a simplified empirical approach. As for most regions of the globe, seasonal forecast skill for South America is low. However, when empirical and coupled multimodel predictions are combined and calibrated using forecast assimilation, more skillful integrated forecasts are obtained than with either empirical or coupled multimodel predictions alone. Both the reliability and resolution of the forecasts have been improved by forecast assimilation in several regions of South America. The Tropics and the area of southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and northern Argentina have been found to be the two most predictable regions of South America during the austral summer. Skillful rainfall forecasts are generally only possible during El Nino or La Nina years rather than in neutral years.