Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region

Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

Detection of flood extent in urban areas using high resolution TerraSAR-X data

Flooding is a major hazard in both rural and urban areas worldwide, but it is in urban areas that the impacts are most severe. An investigation of the ability of high resolution TerraSAR-X data to detect flooded regions in urban areas is described. An important application for this would be the calibration and validation of the flood extent predicted by an urban flood inundation model. To date, research on such models has been hampered by lack of suitable distributed validation data. The study uses a 3m resolution TerraSAR-X image of a 1-in-150 year flood near Tewkesbury, UK, in 2007, for which contemporaneous aerial photography exists for validation. The DLR SETES SAR simulator was used in conjunction with airborne LiDAR data to estimate regions of the TerraSAR-X image in which water would not be visible due to radar shadow or layover caused by buildings and taller vegetation, and these regions were masked out in the flood detection process. A semi-automatic algorithm for the detection of floodwater was developed, based on a hybrid approach. Flooding in rural areas adjacent to the urban areas was detected using an active contour model (snake) region-growing algorithm seeded using the un-flooded river channel network, which was applied to the TerraSAR-X image fused with the LiDAR DTM to ensure the smooth variation of heights along the reach. A simpler region-growing approach was used in the urban areas, which was initialized using knowledge of the flood waterline in the rural areas. Seed pixels having low backscatter were identified in the urban areas using supervised classification based on training areas for water taken from the rural flood, and non-water taken from the higher urban areas. Seed pixels were required to have heights less than a spatially-varying height threshold determined from nearby rural waterline heights. Seed pixels were clustered into urban flood regions based on their close proximity, rather than requiring that all pixels in the region should have low backscatter. This approach was taken because it appeared that urban water backscatter values were corrupted in some pixels, perhaps due to contributions from side-lobes of strong reflectors nearby. The TerraSAR-X urban flood extent was validated using the flood extent visible in the aerial photos. It turned out that 76% of the urban water pixels visible to TerraSAR-X were correctly detected, with an associated false positive rate of 25%. If all urban water pixels were considered, including those in shadow and layover regions, these figures fell to 58% and 19% respectively. These findings indicate that TerraSAR-X is capable of providing useful data for the calibration and validation of urban flood inundation models.

A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s−1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s−1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Niño can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.

Notations and conventions in molecular spectroscopy: part 2. Symmetry notation

The field of Molecular Spectroscopy was surveyed in order to determine a set of conventions and symbols which are in common use in the spectroscopic literature. This document, which is Part 2 in a series, establishes the notations and conventions used for the description of symmetry in rigid molecules, using the Schoenflies notation. It deals firstly with the symmetry operators of the molecular point groups (also drawing attention to the difference between symmetry operators and elements). The conventions and notations of the molecular point groups are then established, followed by those of the representations of these groups as used in molecular spectroscopy. Further parts will follow, dealing inter alia with permutation and permutation-inversion symmetry notation, vibration-rotation spectroscopy and electronic spectroscopy.

Environmental variation at the onset of independent foraging affects full-grown body mass in the red fox

The period following the withdrawal of parental care has been highlighted as a key developmental period for juveniles. One reason for this is that juveniles cannot forage as competently as adults, potentially placing them at greater risk from environmentally-induced changes in food availability. However, no study has examined this topic. Using a long-term dataset on red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), we examined (i) dietary changes that occurred in the one-month period following the attainment of nutritional independence, (ii) diet composition in relation to climatic variation, and (iii) the effect of climatic variation on subsequent full-grown mass. Diet at nutritional independence contained increased quantities of easy-to-catch food items (earthworms and insects) when compared with pre-independence. Interannual variation in the volume of rainfall at nutritional independence was positively correlated to the proportion of earthworms in cub diet. Pre-independence cub mass and rainfall immediately following nutritional independence explained a significant proportion of variance in full-grown mass, with environmental variation affecting full-grown mass of the entire cohorts. Thus, weather-mediated availability of easy-to-catch food items at a key developmental stage has lifelong implications for the development of juvenile foxes by affecting full-grown mass, which in turn appears to be an important component of individual reproductive potential.

Stereoselective entry to beta-linked C-disaccharides using a carbon-Ferrier reaction

[GRAPHICS] The synthesis of unsaturated beta-linked C-disaccharides by the Lewis acid-mediated reaction of 3-O-acetylated glycals with monosaccharide-derived alkenes is described. Deprotection and selective hydrogenation of an exocyclic carbon-carbon double, in the presence of an endocyclic double bond, for representative targets is also illustrated.

Characterization of Actinomyces isolates from samples from the human urogenital tract: description of Actinomyces urogenitalis sp. nov.

Three strains of a previously undescribed Actinomyces-like bacterium were isolated from human clinical sources (urine, urethra and vaginal secretion). Biochemical testing and PAGE analysis of whole-cell proteins indicated that the strains were phenotypically homogeneous and distinct from previously described Actinomyces and Arcanobacterium species. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing studies showed the bacterium to be a hitherto unknown subline within a group of Actinomyces species which includes Actinomyces bovis, the type species of the genus. Based on phylogenetic and phenotypic evidence it is proposed that the unknown bacterium from humans be classified as Actinomyces urogenitalis sp. nov. The type strain of Actinomyces urogenitalis is CCUG 38702T (= CIP 106421T).

Are you thinking what I’m thinking? Peer group similarities in adolescent hostile attribution tendencies

A bias towards attributing hostile intent to others has been linked to aggression. In an adolescent sample, we investigated whether peer group homophily exists in the tendency towards attributing hostile intent. We assessed hostile attribution tendencies and self-reported aggressive behaviours in a normative sample of 910 adolescents, and computed average peer group scores based on nominated friend scores. Results indicated that adolescents showed significant correlations between their own level of hostile attributions and that of their peer group. Further analyses indicated that this effect occurred specifically in reciprocal friendships, and was retained even once own and peer group level of aggression were controlled.

Polymorphisms in dopamine system genes are associated with individual differences in attention in infancy

Knowledge about the functional status of the frontal cortex in infancy is limited. This study investigated the effects of polymorphisms in four dopamine system genes on performance in a task developed to assess such functioning, the Freeze-Frame task, at 9 months of age. Polymorphisms in the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) and the dopamine D4 receptor (DRD4) genes are likely to impact directly on the functioning of the frontal cortex, whereas polymorphisms in the dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) and dopamine transporter (DAT1) genes might influence frontal cortex functioning indirectly via strong frontostriatal connections. A significant effect of the COMT valine158methionine (Val158Met) polymorphism was found. Infants with the Met/Met genotype were significantly less distractible than infants with the Val/Val genotype in Freeze-Frame trials presenting an engaging central stimulus. In addition, there was an interaction with the DAT1 3′ variable number of tandem repeats polymorphism; the COMT effect was present only in infants who did not have two copies of the DAT1 10-repeat allele. These findings indicate that dopaminergic polymorphisms affect selective aspects of attention as early as infancy and further validate the Freeze-Frame task as a frontal cortex task.