The role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the El Nino and Indian drought of 2002

In 2002 India experienced a severe drought, one among the five worst droughts since records began in 1871, notable for its countrywide influence. The drought was primarily due to an unprecedented break in the monsoon during July, which persisted for almost the whole month and affected most of the sub-continent. The failure of the monsoon in 2002 was not predicted and India was not prepared for the devastating impacts on, for example, agriculture. This paper documents the evolution of the 2002 Indian summer monsoon and considers the possible factors that contributed to the drought and the failure of the forecasts. The development of the 2002/2003 El Nino and the unusually high levels of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity during the monsoon season are identified as the central players. The 2002/2003 El Nino was characterised by very high sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific that developed rapidly during the monsoon season. It is suggested that the unusual character of the developing El Nino was associated with the MJO and was a consequence of the eastward extension of the West Pacific Warm Pool, brought about primarily by a series of westerly wind events (WWEs) as part of the eastward movement of the active phase of the MJO. During the boreal summer, the MJO is usually characterised by northward movement, but in 2002 the northward component of the MJO was weak and the MJO was dominated by a strong eastward component, probably driven by the abnormally high SSTs in the central Pacific. It is suggested that a positive feedback existed between the developing El Nino and the eastward component of the MJO, which weakened the active phases of the monsoon. In particular, the unprecedented monsoon break in July could be associated with the juxtaposition of strong MJO activity with a developing El Nino, both of which interfered constructively with each other to produce major perturbations to the distribution of tropical heating. Subsequently, the main impact of the developing El Nino was a modulation of the Walker circulation that led to the overall suppression of the Indian monsoon during thess latter part of the season. It is argued that the unique combination of a rapidly developing El Nino and strong MJO activity, which was timed within the seasonal cycle to have maximum impact on the Indian summer monsoon, meant that prediction of the prolonged break in July and the seasonally deficient rainfall was a challenge for both the empirical and dynamical forecasting systems. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

The implications of improved communications for participatory forest management in Tanzania

Following the 1998 National Forest Policy and Forest Act of 2002, participatory forest management (PFM) is being introduced in Tanzania. PFM has two key objectives: to reduce forest degradation thereby increasing ecosystem services, and to improve the livelihoods of local villagers. A unique data set collected in 2006 suggests that significant challenges remain with respect to communicating the new forest policies if the objectives of PFM are to be achieved. First, villagers as a group are much less well informed than other stakeholders, and their knowledge is often inaccurate. Second, women are less likely than men to have heard of the changes. Third, how PFM will contribute to poverty reduction (a key objective of PFM) is not always clear. Fourth, environmental degradation may not be reduced as much as anticipated – without alternatives sources, villagers often continue to cut trees for charcoal and firewood in the protected forests. Finally, several mismatches in perceptions are identified that could lead to difficulties in implementing PFM.

Regurgitated bodies: presenting and representing trauma in 'The Act of Killing'

Focusing on The Act of Killing, this chapter examines how an “ethics of realism” operates on three key cinematic arenas: genre, authorship and spectatorship. As far as genre is concerned, the film’s realist commitment emerges from where it is least expected, namely from Hollywood genres, such as the musical, the film noir and the western, which are used as documentary, that is to say, as a fantasy realm where perpetrators can confess to their crimes without restraints or fear of punishment, but which nonetheless retains the evidentiary weight of the audiovisual medium. Authorship, in turn, translates as Oppenheimer’s unmistakable auteur signature through his role of self-confessed “infiltrator” who disguises as a sympathiser of the criminals in order to gain first-hand access to the full picture of their acts. One of them, the protagonist Anwar Congo, is clearly affected by post-traumatic stress disorder, and his repetitive reliving of his killings is made to flare up in front of the camera so as to bring back the dead to the present time in their material reality, through his own body, including a harrowing scene of the actor’s unpredictable and uncontrollable retching as he re-enacts the killing of his victims through strangulation. Finally, in the realm of spectatorship, the usual process of illusionistic identification on the part of the spectator is turned onto its head by means of disguising these criminals as amateur filmmakers, led to shoot, act within, and then watch their own film within the film so as to force them to experience beyond any illusion the suffering they had caused.

Response of the lower St. Lawrence Estuary to external forcing in winter

Mostly because of a lack of observations, fundamental aspects of the St. Lawrence Estuary's wintertime response to forcing remain poorly understood. The results of a field campaign over the winter of 2002/03 in the estuary are presented. The response of the system to tidal forcing is assessed through the use of harmonic analyses of temperature, salinity, sea level, and current observations. The analyses confirm previous evidence for the presence of semidiurnal internal tides, albeit at greater depths than previously observed for ice-free months. The low-frequency tidal streams were found to be mostly baroclinic in character and to produce an important neap tide intensification of the estuarine circulation. Despite stronger atmospheric momentum forcing in winter, the response is found to be less coherent with the winds than seen in previous studies of ice-free months. The tidal residuals show the cold intermediate layer in the estuary is renewed rapidly ( 14 days) in late March by the advection of a wedge of near-freezing waters from the Gulf of St. Lawrence. In situ processes appeared to play a lesser role in the renewal of this layer. In particular, significant wintertime deepening of the estuarine surface mixed layer was prevented by surface stability, which remained high throughout the winter. The observations also suggest that the bottom circulation was intensified during winter, with the intrusion in the deep layer of relatively warm Atlantic waters, such that the 3 C isotherm rose from below 150 m to near 60 m.

Mechanisms and function of flower and inflorescence reversion

Flower and inflorescence reversion involve a switch from floral development back to vegetative development, thus rendering flowering a phase in an ongoing growth pattern rather than a terminal act of the meristem. Although it can be considered an unusual event, reversion raises questions about the nature and function of flowering. It is linked to environmental conditions and is most often a response to conditions opposite to those that induce flowering. Research on molecular genetic mechanisms underlying plant development over the last 15 years has pinpointed some of the key genes involved in the transition to flowering and flower development. Such investigations have also uncovered mutations which reduce floral maintenance or alter the balance between vegetative and floral features of the plant. How this information contributes to an understanding of floral reversion is assessed here. One issue that arises is whether floral commitment (defined as the ability to continue flowering when inductive conditions no longer exist) is a developmental switch affecting the whole plant or is a mechanism which assigns autonomy to individual meristems. A related question is whether floral or vegetative development is the underlying default pathway of the plant. This review begins by considering how studies of flowering in Arabidopsis thaliana have aided understanding of mechanisms of floral maintenance. Arabidopsis has not been found to revert to leaf production in any of the conditions or genetic backgrounds analysed to date. A clear-cut reversion to leaf production has, however, been described in Impatiens balsamina. It is proposed that a single gene controls whether Impatiens reverts or can maintain flowering when inductive conditions are removed, and it is inferred that this gene functions to control the synthesis or transport of a leaf-generated signal. But it is also argued that the susceptibility of Impatiens to reversion is a consequence of the meristem-based mechanisms controlling development of the flower in this species. Thus, in Impatiens, a leaf-derived signal is critical for completion of flowering and can be considered to be the basis of a plant-wide floral commitment that is achieved without accompanying meristem autonomy. The evidence, derived from in vitro and other studies, that similar mechanisms operate in other species is assessed. It is concluded that most species (including Arabidopsis) are less prone to reversion because signals from the leaf are less ephemeral, and the pathways driving flower development have a high level of redundancy that generates meristem autonomy even when leaf-derived signals are weak. This gives stability to the flowering process, even where its initiation is dependent on environmental cues. On this interpretation, Impatiens reversion appears as an anomaly resulting from an unusual combination of leaf signalling and meristem regulation. Nevertheless, it is shown that the ability to revert can serve a function in the life history strategy (perenniality) or reproductive habit (pseudovivipary) of many plants. In these instances reversion has been assimilated into regular plant development and plays a crucial role there.

Bottom-up planning and the future of planning education in India

The article discusses normative guidelines for reorienting planning education in India within the context of the immensely influential Constitutional Amendment Act of 1993. First, it briefly sketches the status of planning education at present in India, in relation to the role of planners in planning practice. It then descibes the changes that have taken place in general, following the Constitutional Amendment Act, dwelling more on the specific changes within the State of Kerala. The implications of these for planning education in general are then discussed normatively, highlighting three areas that need immediate attention from the planning academic community.

Auditory distraction eliminates retrieval induced forgetting: implications for the processing of unattended sound

The Retrieval-Induced Forgetting (RIF) paradigm includes three phases: (a) study/encoding of category exemplars, (b) practicing retrieval of a sub-set of those category exemplars, and (c) recall of all exemplars. At the final recall phase, recall of items that belong to the same categories as those items that undergo retrieval-practice, but that do not undergo retrieval-practice, is impaired. The received view is that this is because retrieval of target category-exemplars (e.g., ‘Tiger’ in the category Four-legged animal) requires inhibition of non-target category-exemplars (e.g., ‘Dog’ and ‘Lion’) that compete for retrieval. Here, we used the RIF paradigm to investigate whether ignoring auditory items during the retrieval-practice phase modulates the inhibitory process. In two experiments, RIF was present when retrieval-practice was conducted in quiet and when conducted in the presence of spoken words that belonged to a category other than that of the items that were targets for retrieval-practice. In contrast, RIF was abolished when words that either were identical to the retrieval-practice words or were only semantically related to the retrieval-practice words were presented as background speech. The results suggest that the act of ignoring speech can reduce inhibition of the non-practiced category-exemplars, thereby eliminating RIF, but only when the spoken words are competitors for retrieval (i.e., belong to the same semantic category as the to-be-retrieved items).

Neural correlates of cognitive dissonance and choice-induced preference change

According to many modern economic theories, actions simply reflect an individual's preferences, whereas a psychological phenomenon called “cognitive dissonance” claims that actions can also create preference. Cognitive dissonance theory states that after making a difficult choice between two equally preferred items, the act of rejecting a favorite item induces an uncomfortable feeling (cognitive dissonance), which in turn motivates individuals to change their preferences to match their prior decision (i.e., reducing preference for rejected items). Recently, however, Chen and Risen [Chen K, Risen J (2010) J Pers Soc Psychol 99:573–594] pointed out a serious methodological problem, which casts a doubt on the very existence of this choice-induced preference change as studied over the past 50 y. Here, using a proper control condition and two measures of preferences (self-report and brain activity), we found that the mere act of making a choice can change self-report preference as well as its neural representation (i.e., striatum activity), thus providing strong evidence for choice-induced preference change. Furthermore, our data indicate that the anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex tracked the degree of cognitive dissonance on a trial-by-trial basis. Our findings provide important insights into the neural basis of how actions can alter an individual's preferences.

The regulation of cyber warfare under the jus ad bellum

This chapter evaluates the potential for legal regulation of the resort to cyber warfare between states under the ‘jus ad bellum’ (the law on the use of force). Debate in the literature has largely concerned whether cyber warfare falls within the scope of Article 2(4) UNC. The first part of this chapter sets out this debate. It then goes on to argue that the ‘Article 2(4) debate’ often misses the fact that an act of cyber warfare can be considered a breach of a different legal rule: the principle of non-intervention. The chapter further considers some of the issues in applying either the prohibition of the use of force or the principle of non-intervention to cyber warfare, and then concludes by arguing that the debate should be reoriented to focus on another existing international legal obligation: the duty to prevent cyber-attacks.

Non-cinema: the location of politics in film

Philosophy has repeatedly denied cinema in order to grant it artistic status. Adorno, for example, defined an ‘uncinematic’ element in the negation of movement in modern cinema, ‘which constitutes its artistic character’. Similarly, Lyotard defended an ‘acinema’, which rather than selecting and excluding movements through editing, accepts what is ‘fortuitous, dirty, confused, unclear, poorly framed, overexposed’. In his Handbook of Inaesthetics, Badiou embraces a similar idea, by describing cinema as an ‘impure circulation’ that incorporates the other arts. Resonating with Bazin and his defence of ‘impure cinema’, that is, of cinema’s interbreeding with other arts, Badiou seems to agree with him also in identifying the uncinematic as the location of the Real. This article will investigate the particular impurities of cinema that drive it beyond the specificities of the medium and into the realm of the other arts and the reality of life itself. Privileged examples will be drawn from various moments in film history and geography, starting with the analysis of two films by Jafar Panahi: This Is Not a Film (In film nist, 2011), whose anti-cinema stance in announced in its own title; and The Mirror (Aineh, 1997), another relentless exercise in self-negation. It goes on to examine Kenji Mizoguchi’s deconstruction of cinematic acting in his exploration of the geidomono genre (films about theatre actors) in The Story of the Last Chrysanthemums (Zangigku monogatari, 1939), and culminates in the conjuring of the physical experience of death through the systematic demolition of film genres in The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer et al., 2012).