Tropical and extratropical responses of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation to a sustained weakening of the MOC

The tropospheric response to a forced shutdown of the North Atlantic Ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated in a coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM [the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3)]. The strength of the boreal winter North Atlantic storm track is significantly increased and penetrates much farther into western Europe. The changes in the storm track are shown to be consistent with the changes in near-surface baroclinicity, which can be linked to changes in surface temperature gradients near regions of sea ice formation and in the open ocean. Changes in the SST of the tropical Atlantic are linked to a strengthening of the subtropical jet to the north, which, combined with the enhanced storm track, leads to a pronounced split in the jet structure over Europe. EOF analysis and stationary box indices methods are used to analyze changes to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). There is no consistent signal of a change in the variability of the NAO, and while the changes in the mean flow project onto the positive NAO phase, they are significantly different from it. However, there is a clear eastward shift of the NAO pattern in the shutdown run, and this potentially has implications for ocean circulation and for the interpretation of proxy paleoclimate records.

Effects of volatile fatty acid supply on their absorption and on water kinetics in the rumen of sheep sustained by intragastric infusions

Three sheep fitted with a ruminal cannula and an abomasal catheter were used to study water kinetics and absorption of VFA infused continuously into the rumen. The effects of changing VFA concentrations in the rumen by shifting VFA infusion rates were investigated in an experiment with a 3 x 3 Latin square design. On experimental days, the animals received the basal infusion rate of VFA (271 mmol/h) during the first 2 h. Each animal then received VFA at a different rate (135, 394, or 511 mmol/h) for the next 7.5 h. Using soluble markers (polyethylene glycol and Cr-EDTA), ruminal volume, liquid outflow, apparent water absorption, and VFA absorption rates were estimated. There were no significant effects of VFA infusion rate on ruminal volume and water kinetics. As the VFA infusion rate was increased, VFA concentration and osmolality in the rumen were increased and pH was decreased. There was a biphasic response of liquid outflow to changes in the total VFA concentration in the rumen, as both variables increased together up to a total VFA concentration of 80.1 mM, whereas, beyond that concentration, liquid outflow remained stable at an average rate of 407 mL/h. There were significant linear (P = 0.003) and quadratic (P = 0.001) effects of VFA infusion rate on the VFA absorption rate, confirming that VFA absorption in the rumen is mainly a concentration-dependent process. The proportion of total VFA supplied that was absorbed in the rumen was 0.845 (0.822, 0.877, and 0.910 for acetate, propionate, and butyrate, respectively). The molar proportions of acetate, propionate, and butyrate absorbed were affected by the level of VFA infusion in the rumen, indicating that this level affected to a different extent the absorption of the different acids.

The small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: empirical evidence and implied inflation dynamics

In this paper we apply GMM estimation to assess the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics in a sample of OECD countries typically classified as open economies. The analysis is based on a variant of the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (Rev Econ Stud 72:707–734, 2005), where the novel feature is that expectations about fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly. For most countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as the more relevant inflation driver than the contemporaneous domestic output gap.

Inflation dynamics in the new EU member states: how relevant are external factors?

In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European Union (EU) member countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005) for small open economies (SOE). Employing the generalized method of moments (GMM), we find that the SOE NKPC is well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in the larger countries of our sample, whereas external variables are mostly relevant in the smaller countries.

The inflation hedging characteristics of US and UK investments: a multi-factor error correction approach

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks produced anomalous results, with equities often appearing to offer a perverse hedge against inflation. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns (from both private and public markets) and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalisation stock returns in both markets is carried out. Inflation is subdivided into expected and unexpected components using different estimation techniques. The analyses are undertaken using long-run error correction techniques. In the long-run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly direct market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from equities.

Preliminary observations on the presence of sustained tendon strain and eccentric contractions of the wrist extensors during a common manual task: implications for lateral epicondylitis

Lateral epicondylitis (LE) is hypothesized to occur as a result of repetitive, strenuous and abnormal postural activities of the elbow and wrist. There is still a lack of understanding of how wrist and forearm positions contribute to this condition during common manual tasks. In this study the wrist kinematics and the wrist extensors’ musculotendon patterns were investigated during a manual task believed to elicit LE symptoms in susceptible subjects. A 42-year-old right-handed male, with no history of LE, performed a repetitive movement involving pushing and turning a spring-loaded mechanism. Motion capture data were acquired for the upper limb and an inverse kinematic and dynamic analysis was subsequently carried out. Results illustrated the presence of eccentric contractions sustained by the extensor carpi radialis longus (ECRL), together with an almost constant level of tendon strain of both extensor carpi radialis brevis (ECRB) and extensor digitorum communis lateral (EDCL) branch. It is believed that these factors may partly contribute to the onset of LE as they are both responsible for the creation of microtears at the tendons’ origins. The methodology of this study can be used to explore muscle actions during movements that might cause or exacerbate LE.

Sustained monitoring of the Southern Ocean at Drake Passage: past achievements and future priorities

Drake Passage is the narrowest constriction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in the Southern Ocean, with implications for global ocean circulation and climate. We review the long-term sustained monitoring programmes that have been conducted at Drake Passage, dating back to the early part of the twentieth century. Attention is drawn to numerous breakthroughs that have been made from these programmes, including (a) the first determinations of the complex ACC structure and early quantifications of its transport; (b) realization that the ACC transport is remarkably steady over interannual and longer periods, and a growing understanding of the processes responsible for this; (c) recognition of the role of coupled climate modes in dictating the horizontal transport, and the role of anthropogenic processes in this; (d) understanding of mechanisms driving changes in both the upper and lower limbs of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, and their impacts. It is argued that monitoring of this passage remains a high priority for oceanographic and climate research, but that strategic improvements could be made concerning how this is conducted. In particular, long-term programmes should concentrate on delivering quantifications of key variables of direct relevance to large-scale environmental issues: in this context, the time-varying overturning circulation is, if anything, even more compelling a target than the ACC flow. Further, there is a need for better international resource-sharing, and improved spatio-temporal coordination of the measurements. If achieved, the improvements in understanding of important climatic issues deriving from Drake Passage monitoring can be sustained into the future.

Disorder-specific functional abnormalities during sustained attention in youth with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and with Autism

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) are often comorbid and share behavioural-cognitive abnormalities in sustained attention. A key question is whether this shared cognitive phenotype is based on common or different underlying pathophysiologies. To elucidate this question, we compared 20 boys with ADHD to 20 age and IQ matched ASD and 20 healthy boys using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during a parametrically modulated vigilance task with a progressively increasing load of sustained attention. ADHD and ASD boys had significantly reduced activation relative to controls in bilateral striato–thalamic regions, left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and superior parietal cortex. Both groups also displayed significantly increased precuneus activation relative to controls. Precuneus was negatively correlated with the DLPFC activation, and progressively more deactivated with increasing attention load in controls, but not patients, suggesting problems with deactivation of a task-related default mode network in both disorders. However, left DLPFC underactivation was significantly more pronounced in ADHD relative to ASD boys, which furthermore was associated with sustained performance measures that were only impaired in ADHD patients. ASD boys, on the other hand, had disorder-specific enhanced cerebellar activation relative to both ADHD and control boys, presumably reflecting compensation. The findings show that ADHD and ASD boys have both shared and disorder-specific abnormalities in brain function during sustained attention. Shared deficits were in fronto–striato–parietal activation and default mode suppression. Differences were a more severe DLPFC dysfunction in ADHD and a disorder-specific fronto–striato–cerebellar dysregulation in ASD.

Forecasting annual inflation with seasonal monthly data: using levels versus logs of the underlying price index

This paper investigates whether using natural logarithms (logs) of price indices for forecasting inflation rates is preferable to employing the original series. Univariate forecasts for annual inflation rates for a number of European countries and the USA based on monthly seasonal consumer price indices are considered. Stochastic seasonality and deterministic seasonality models are used. In many cases, the forecasts based on the original variables result in substantially smaller root mean squared errors than models based on logs. In turn, if forecasts based on logs are superior, the gains are typically small. This outcome sheds doubt on the common practice in the academic literature to forecast inflation rates based on differences of logs.

Sustained polymeric delivery of gene silencing antisense ODNs, siRNA, DNAzymes and ribozymes: in vitro and in vivo studies

Small interfering RNA (siRNA), antisense oligonucleotides (ODNs), ribozymes and DNAzymes have emerged as sequence-specific inhibitors of gene expression that may have therapeutic potential in the treatment of a wide range of diseases. Due to their rapid degradation in vivo, the efficacy of naked gene silencing nucleic acids is relatively short lived. The entrapment of these nucleic acids within biodegradable sustained-release delivery systems may improve their stability and reduce the doses required for efficacy. In this study, we have evaluated the potential in vitro and in vivo use of biodegradable poly (d,l-lactide-co-glycolide) copolymer (PLGA) microspheres as sustained delivery devices for ODNs, ribozyme, siRNA and DNA enzymes. In addition, we investigated the release of ODN conjugates bearing 5′-end lipophilic groups. The in vitro sustained release profiles of microsphere-entrapped nucleic acids were dependent on variables such as the type of nucleic acid used, the nature of the lipophilic group, and whether the nucleic acid used was single or double stranded. For in vivo studies, whole body autoradiography was used to monitor the bio-distribution of either free tritium-labelled ODN or that entrapped within PLGA microspheres following subcutaneous administration in Balb-c mice. The majority of the radioactivity associated with free ODN was eliminated within 24 h whereas polymer-released ODN persisted in organs and at the site of administration even after seven days post-administration. Polymer microsphere released ODN exhibited a similar tissue and cellular tropism to the free ODN. Micro-autoradiography analyses of the liver and kidneys showed similar bio-distribution for polymer-released and free ODNs with the majority of radioactivity being concentrated in the proximal convoluted tubules of the kidney and in the Kupffer cells of the liver. These findings suggest that biodegradable PLGA microspheres offer a method for improving the in vivo sustained delivery of gene silencing nucleic acids, and hence are worthy of further investigation as delivery systems for these macromolecules.