An empirical investigation of the effects of rounding on the SPF probabilities of decine and output growth histograms

I consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future, as well as their reported output growth probability distributions. I make various plausible assumptions about respondents’ rounding practices, and show how these impinge upon the apparent mismatch between probability forecasts of a decline in output and the probabilities of this event implied by the annual output growth histograms. I find that rounding accounts for about a quarter of the inconsistent pairs of forecasts.

Interaction with avian cells and colonisation of specific pathogen free chicks by Shiga-toxin negative Escherichia coli O157:H7 (NCTC 12900)

The prevalence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection in birds is low but several deliberate inoculation studies show that poultry are readily and persistently infected by this organism indicating a possible threat to public health. The mechanisms of colonisation of poultry are not understood and the aim is to establish models to study the interaction of E. coli O157:H7, at the cellular and whole animal levels. A non-toxigenic E. coli O157:H7 (NCTC 12900) was used in adherence assays with an avian epithelial cell line (Div-1) and used to inoculate 1-day-old SPF chicks. In vitro, NCTC 12900 induced micro-colonies associated with cytoskeletal arrangements and pedestal formation with intimate bacterial attachment. In the 1-day-old SPF chick, a dose of 1 x 10(5) cfu resulted in rapid and extensive colonisation of the gastrointestinal tract and transient colonisation of the liver and spleen. The number of E. coli O157:H7 organisms attained approximately 10(8) cfu/ml caecal homogenate 24 h after inoculation and approximately 10(7) cfu/ml caecal homogenate was still present at day 92. Faecal shedding persisted for 169 days, ceasing 9 days after the birds came into lay and 6% of eggs were contaminated on the eggshell. Histological analysis of tissue samples from birds dosed with 1 x 10(7) cfu gave evidence for E coli O157:H7 NCTC 12900 induced micro-colonies on the caecal mucosa, although evidence for attaching effacing lesions was equivocal. These models may be suitable to study those factors of E. coli O157:H7 that mediate persistent colonisation in avian species.

Competitive exclusion by Bacillus subtilis spores of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis and Clostridium perfringens in young chickens

Cost effective control of avian diseases and food borne pathogens remains a high priority for all sectors of the poultry industry with cleansing and disinfection, vaccination and competitive exclusion approaches being used widely. Previous studies showed that Bacillus subtilis PY79(hr) was an effective competitive exclusion agent for use in poultry to control avian pathogenic Escherichia coli serotype O78:K80. Here we report experiments that were undertaken to test the efficacy of B. subtilis PY79(hr) in the control of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis and Clostridium perfringens in young chickens. To do this, 1-day-old and 20-day-old specific pathogen free (SPF) chicks were dosed with a suspension of B. subtilis spores prior to challenge with S. Enteritidis (S1400) and C. perfringens, respectively. For both challenge models, a single oral inoculum of 1 x 10(9) spores given 24 h prior to challenge was sufficient to suppress colonisation and persistence of both S. Enteritidis and C perfringens. In particular, the faecal shedding of S. Enteritidis, as measured by a semi-quantitative cloacal swabbing technique, was reduced significantly for the 36 days duration of the experiment. B. subtilis persisted in the intestine although with decreasing numbers over the same period. These data add further evidence that B. subtilis spores may be effective agents in the control of avian diseases and food borne pathogens.

Role for flagella but not intimin in the persistent infection of the gastrointestinal tissues of specific-pathogen-free chicks by Shiga toxin-negative Escherichia coli O157:H7

Shiga toxin (Stx)-positive Escherichia coli O157:117 readily colonize and persist in specific-pathogen-free (SPF) chicks, and we have shown that an Stx-negative E. coli O157:117 isolate (NCTC12900) readily colonizes SPF chicks for up to 169 days after oral inoculation at 1 day of age. However, the role of intimin in the persistent colonization of poultry remains unclear. Thus, to investigate the role of intimin and flagella, which is a known factor in the persistence of non-O157 E. coli in poultry, isogenic single- and double-intimin and aflagellar mutants were constructed in E. coli O157:117 isolate NCTC12900. These mutants were used to inoculate (10(5) CFU) 1-day-old SPF chicks. In general, significant attenuation of the aflagellate and intiminaflagellate mutants, but not the intimin mutant, was noted at similar time points between 22 and 92 days after inoculation. The intimin-deficient mutant was still being shed at the end of the experiment, which was 211 days after inoculation, 84 days more than the wild type. Shedding of the aflagellar and intimin-aflagellar mutants ceased 99 and 113 days after inoculation, respectively. Histological analysis of gastrointestinal tissues from inoculated birds gave no evidence for true microcolony formation by NCTC12900 or intimin and aflagellar mutants to epithelial cells. However, NCTC12900 mutant derivatives associated with the mucosa were observed as individual cells and/or as large aggregates. Association with luminal contents was also noted. These data suggest that O157 organisms do not require intimin for the persistent colonization of chickens, whereas flagella do play a role in this process.

Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

Consensus and uncertainty: using forecast probabilities of output declines

A number of studies have addressed the relationship between intra-personal uncertainty and inter-personal disagreement about the future values of economic variables such as output growth and inflation using the SPF. By making use of the SPF respondents' probability forecasts of declines in output, we are able to construct a quarterly series of output growth uncertainty to supplement the annual series that are often used in such analyses. We also consider the relationship between disagreement and uncertainty for probability forecasts of declines in output.