Trading death: the implications of annuity replication for the annuity puzzle, arbitrage, speculation and portfolios

Annuities are perceived as being illiquid financial instruments, and this has limited their attractiveness to consumers and their inclusion in financial models. However, short positions in annuities can be replicated using life insurance and debt, permitting long positions in annuities to be offset, or short annuity positions to be created. The implications of this result for the annuity puzzle, arbitrage between the annuity and life insurance markets, and speculation on expected longevity are investigated. It is argued that annuity replication could help reduce the annuity puzzle, improve the price efficiency of annuity markets and promote the inclusion of annuities in household portfolios.

Interactions between herbal and conventional medicines

Herb-drug interactions are subject to much interest at present, but for various reasons reports may be unreliable or unsubstantiated. Herbal medicines are variable in composition and quality, which may affect their interaction profile as well as the reliability of reports concerning them. In this review, clinical and experimental reports have been collated, evaluated and summarised, and the theoretical and clinical evidence presented. There is an explanation of the particular issues involved with herbal medicines as compared with conventional drugs, and reasons why comparisons may or may not be valid, which is intended for those without specialist experience in herbal products. It has become apparent that only a few herbal drugs have so far been cited in interaction reports, for example St John's Wort, Ginkgo biloba, Dan Shen, liquorice, Ma huang and garlic, and that the main drugs involved are those which are already susceptible to interactions with many other conventional drugs, such as warfarin, protease inhibitors and anti-cancer drugs. An attempt has been made to put the matter into perspective and recommendations have been given for health professionals to advise or develop strategies to safeguard patients, without resorting to speculation or scaremongering.

Means, motive and opportunity? Disentangling client influence on performance measurement appraisals

This paper investigates the extent to which clients were able to influence performance measurement appraisals during the downturn in commercial property markets that began in the UK during the second half of 2007. The sharp change in market sentiment produced speculation that different client categories were attempting to influence their appraisers in different ways. In particular, it was recognised that the requirement for open‐ended funds to meet redemptions gave them strong incentives to ensure that their asset values were marked down to market. Using data supplied by Investment Property Databank, we demonstrate that, indeed, unlisted open‐ended funds experienced sharper drops in capital values than other fund types in the last quarter of 2007, after the market turning point and at the time when redemptions were at their highest. These differences are statistically significant and cannot simply be explained by differences in portfolio composition. Client influence on appraisal forms one possible explanation of the results observed: the different pressures on fund managers resulting in different appraisal outcomes.

Means, motive and opportunity? Disentangling client influence on performance measurement appraisals

This paper investigates the extent to which clients were able to influence performance measurement appraisals during the downturn in commercial property markets that began in the UK during the second half of 2007. The sharp change in market sentiment produced speculation that different client categories were attempting to influence their appraisers in different ways. In particular, it was recognised that the requirement for open-ended funds to meet redemptions gave them strong incentives to ensure that their asset values were marked down to market. Using data supplied by Investment Property Databank, we demonstrate that, indeed, unlisted open ended funds experienced sharper drops in capital values than other fund types in the second half of 2007, after the market turning point. These differences are statistically significant and cannot simply be explained by differences in portfolio composition. Client influence on appraisal forms one possible explanation of the results observed: the different pressures on fund managers resulting in different appraisal outcomes.

Do designers show categorical perception of typefaces?

Readers need to easily discriminate between different letters, so typefaces are designed to make these differences distinctive. But there is also a uniformity of style within a typeface. These styles are recognised by typographic designers and may be categorised to enable more efficient discrimination among typefaces. The manner in which designers perceive typefaces is explored using the paradigm of Categorical Perception (CP). A continuum of fonts is created by interpolating between two typefaces and two tasks (identification and discrimination) are used to test for CP. As the application of CP to typefaces is a new approach, various methodological issues are pursued. The experiments reveal that the conditions required to demonstrate CP are quite specific and CP was only evident in Times and Helvetica and not Garamond and Bodoni. Possible reasons for this difference are the characteristics of the two typefaces and their context of use. Speculation as to the purpose of CP in non-designers raises the under-researched question of how we identify letters in different typefaces when reading.

An investigation of the effect of eco-labeling on office occupancy rates

This paper investigates the extent to which clients were able to influence performance measurement appraisals during the downturn in commercial property markets that began in the UK during the second half of 2007. The sharp change in market sentiment produced speculation that different client categories were attempting to influence their appraisers in different ways. In particular, it was recognised that the requirement for open-ended funds to meet redemptions gave them strong incentives to ensure that their asset values were marked down to market. Using data supplied by Investment Property Databank, we demonstrate that, indeed, unlisted open ended funds experienced sharper drops in capital values than other fund types in the second half of 2007, after the market turning point. These differences are statistically significant and cannot simply be explained by differences in portfolio composition. Client influence on appraisal forms one possible explanation of the results observed: the different pressures on fund managers resulting in different appraisal outcomes.

Climate change and the current 'food crisis'

Many reasons are being advanced for the current ‘food crisis’ including financial speculation,increased demand for grains, export bans on selected foodstuffs, inadequate grain stocks, higher oil prices, poor harvests and the use of crop lands for the production of biofuels. This paper reviews the present knowledge of recorded impacts of climate change and variability on crop production, in order to estimate its contribution to the current situation. Many studies demonstrate increased regional temperatures over the last 40 years (often through greater increases in minimum rather than maximum temperatures), but effects on crop yields are mixed. Distinguishing climate effects from changes in yield resulting from improved crop management and genotypes is difficult, but phenological changes affecting sowing, maturity and disease incidence are emerging. Anthropogenic factors appear to be a significant contributory factor to the observed decline in rainfall in southwestern and southeastern Australia, which reduced tradable wheat grain during 2007. Indirect effects of climate change through actions to mitigate or adapt to anticipated changes in climate are also evident. The amount of land diverted from crop production to biofuel production is small but has had a disproportionate effect on tradable grains from the USA. Adaptation of crop production practices and other components of the food system contributing to food security in response to variable and changing climates have occurred, but those households without adequate livelihoods are most in danger of becoming food insecure. Overall, we conclude that changing climate is a small contributor to the current food crisis but cannot be ignored.

Does managerial turnover affect football club share prices?

This paper analyses the 53 managerial sackings and resignations from 16 stock exchange listed English football clubs during the nine seasons between 2000/01 and 2008/09. The results demonstrate that, on average, a managerial sacking results in a post-announcement day market-adjusted share price rise of 0.3%, whilst a resignation leads to a drop in share price of 1% that continues for a trading month thereafter, cumulating in a negative abnormal return of over 8% from a trading day before the event. These findings are intuitive, and suggest that sacking a poorly performing manager may be welcomed by the markets as a possible route to better future match performance, while losing a capable manager through resignation, who typically progresses to a superior job, will result in a drop in a club’s share price. The paper also reveals that while the impact of managerial departures on stock price volatilities is less clear-cut, speculation in the newspapers is rife in the build-up to such an event.

How the double spherules of infectious bronchitis virus impact our understanding of RNA virus replicative organelles

Powered by advances in electron tomography, recent studies have extended our understanding of how viruses construct "replication factories" inside infected cells. Their function, however, remains an area of speculation with important implications for human health. It is clear from these studies that whatever their purpose, organelle structure is dynamic (M. Ulasli, M. H. Verheije, C. A. de Haan, and F. Reggiori, Cell. Microbiol. 12:844-861, 2010) and intricate (K. Knoops, M. Kikkert, S. H. Worm, J. C. Zevenhoven-Dobbe, Y. van der Meer, et al., PLOS Biol. 6:e226, 2008). But by concentrating on medically important viruses, these studies have failed to take advantage of the genetic variation inherent in a family of viruses that is as diverse as the archaea, bacteria, and eukaryotes combined (C. Lauber, J. J. Goeman, M. del Carmen Parquet, P. T. Nga, E. J. Snijder, et al., PLOS Pathog. 9:e1003500, 2013). In this climate, Maier et al. (H. J. Maier, P. C. Hawes, E. M. Cottam, J. Mantell, P. Verkade, et al., mBio 4:e00801-13, 2013) explored the replicative structures formed by an avian coronavirus that appears to have diverged at an early point in coronavirus evolution and shed light on controversial aspects of viral biology.

Late-Holocene changes in character and behaviour of land-terminating glaciers on James Ross Island, Antarctica

Virtually no information is available on the response of land-terminating Antarctic Peninsula glaciers to climate change on a centennial timescale. This paper analyses the topography, geomorphology and sedimentology of prominent moraines on James Ross Island, Antarctica, to determine geometric changes and to interpret glacier behaviour. The moraines are very likely due to a late-Holocene phase of advance and featured (1) shearing and thrusting within the snout, (2) shearing and deformation of basal sediment, (3) more supraglacial debris than at present and (4) short distances of sediment transport. Retreat of ∼100 m and thinning of 15–20 m has produced a loss of 0.1 km3 of ice. The pattern of surface lowering is asymmetric. These geometrical changes are suggested most simply to be due to a net negative mass balance caused by a drier climate. Comparisons of the moraines with the current glaciological surface structure of the glaciers permits speculation of a transition from a polythermal to a cold-based thermal regime. Small land-terminating glaciers in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region could be cooling despite a warming climate.

Writers' rooms: theories of contemporary authorship in portraits of creative spaces

This article analyzes two series of photographs and essays on writers’ rooms published in England and Canada in 2007 and 2008. The Guardian’s Writers Rooms series, with photographs by Eamon McCabe, ran in 2007. In the summer of 2008, The Vancouver International Writers and Readers Festival began to post its own version of The Guardian column on its website by displaying, each week leading up to the Festival in September, a different writer’s “writing space” and an accompanying paragraph. I argue that these images of writers’ rooms, which suggest a cultural fascination with authors’ private compositional practices and materials, reveal a great deal about theoretical constructions of authorship implicit in contemporary literary culture. Far from possessing the museum quality of dead authors’ spaces, rooms that are still being used, incorporating new forms of writing technology, and having drafts of manuscripts scattered around them, can offer insight into such well-worn and ineffable areas of speculation as inspiration, singular authorial genius, and literary productivity.

Booms and busts in commodity markets: bubbles or fundamentals?

This paper considers whether there were periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in commodity prices over a 40-year period from the late 1960s. We apply a switching regression approach to a broad range of commodities using two different measures of fundamental values—estimated from convenience yields and from a set of macroeconomic factors believed to affect commodity demand. We find reliable evidence for bubbles only among crude oil and feeder cattle, showing the popular belief that the extreme price movements observed in commodity markets were caused by pure speculation to be unsustainable

Acute benefits of the microbial-derived isoflavone metabolite equol on arterial stiffness in men prospectively recruited according to equol producer phenotype: a double-blind randomized controlled trial

There is much speculation with regard to the potential cardioprotective benefits of equol, a microbial-derived metabolite of the isoflavone daidzein, which is produced in the large intestine after soy intake in 30% of Western populations. Although cross-sectional and retrospective data support favorable associations between the equol producer (EP) phenotype and cardiometabolic health, few studies have prospectively recruited EPs to confirm this association. The aim was to determine whether the acute vascular benefits of isoflavones differ according to EP phenotype and subsequently investigate the effect of providing commercially produced S-(–)equol to non-EPs. We prospectively recruited male EPs and non-EPs (n = 14/ group) at moderate cardiovascular risk into a double-blind, placebocontrolled crossover study to examine the acute effects of soy isoflavones (80-mg aglycone equivalents) on arterial stiffness [carotid-femoral pulse-wave velocity (cfPWV)], blood pressure, endothelial function (measured by using the EndoPAT 2000; Itamar Medical), and nitric oxide at baseline (0 h) and 6 and 24 h after intake. In a separate assessment, non-EPs consumed 40 mg S-(–)equol with identical vascular measurements performed 2 h after intake. After soy intake, cfPWV significantly improved in EPs at 24 h (cfPWV change from 0 h: isoflavone, 20.2 6 0.2 m/s; placebo, 0.6 6 0.2 m/s; P , 0.01), which was significantly associated with plasma equol concentrations (R = 20.36, P = 0.01). No vascular effects were observed in EPs at 6 h or in non-EPs at any time point. Similarly, no benefit of commercially produced S-(–)equol was observed in non-EPs despite mean plasma equol concentrations reaching 3.2 mmol/L. Acute soy intake improved cfPWV in EPs, equating to an 11–12% reduced risk of cardiovascular disease if sustained. However, a single dose of commercially produced equol had no cardiovascular benefits in non-EPs. These data suggest that the EP phenotype is critical in unlocking the vascular benefits of equol in men, and long-term trials should focus on confirming the implications of EP phenotype on cardiovascular health. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01530893. Am J Clin Nutr doi: 10.3945/ajcn.115.125690.