Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: toward weather-resolving climate modeling

Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) activity is investigated in multiyear global climate simulations with theECMWFIntegrated Forecast System (IFS) at 10-km resolution forced by the observed records of sea surface temperature and sea ice. The results are compared to analogous simulationswith the 16-, 39-, and 125-km versions of the model as well as observations. In the North Atlantic, mean TC frequency in the 10-km model is comparable to the observed frequency, whereas it is too low in the other versions. While spatial distributions of the genesis and track densities improve systematically with increasing resolution, the 10-km model displays qualitatively more realistic simulation of the track density in the western subtropical North Atlantic. In the North Pacific, the TC count tends to be too high in thewest and too low in the east for all resolutions. These model errors appear to be associated with the errors in the large-scale environmental conditions that are fairly similar in this region for all model versions. The largest benefits of the 10-km simulation are the dramatically more accurate representation of the TC intensity distribution and the structure of the most intense storms. The model can generate a supertyphoon with a maximum surface wind speed of 68.4 m s21. The life cycle of an intense TC comprises intensity fluctuations that occur in apparent connection with the variations of the eyewall/rainband structure. These findings suggest that a hydrostatic model with cumulus parameterization and of high enough resolution could be efficiently used to simulate the TC intensity response (and the associated structural changes) to future climate change.

Mixed layer lateral eddy fluxes mediated by air-sea interaction

The modulation of air–sea heat fluxes by geostrophic eddies due to the stirring of temperature at the sea surface is discussed and quantified. It is argued that the damping of eddy temperature variance by such air–sea fluxes enhances the dissipation of surface temperature fields. Depending on the time scale of damping relative to that of the eddying motions, surface eddy diffusivities can be significantly enhanced over interior values. The issues are explored and quantified in a controlled setting by driving a tracer field, a proxy for sea surface temperature, with surface altimetric observations in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) of the Southern Ocean. A new, tracer-based diagnostic of eddy diffusivity is introduced, which is related to the Nakamura effective diffusivity. Using this, the mixed layer lateral eddy diffusivities associated with (i) eddy stirring and small-scale mixing and (ii) surface damping by air–sea interaction is quantified. In the ACC, a diffusivity associated with surface damping of a comparable magnitude to that associated with eddy stirring (;500 m2 s21) is found. In frontal regions prevalent in the ACC, an augmentation of surface lateral eddy diffusivities of this magnitude is equivalent to an air–sea flux of 100 W m22 acting over a mixed layer depth of 100 m, a very significant effect. Finally, the implications for other tracer fields such as salinity, dissolved gases, and chlorophyll are discussed. Different tracers are found to have surface eddy diffusivities that differ significantly in magnitude.