Computationally efficient expressions for the collision efficiency between electrically charged aerosol particles and cloud droplets

A multiple factor parametrization is described to permit the efficient calculation of collision efficiency (E) between electrically charged aerosol particles and neutral cloud droplets in numerical models of cloud and climate. The four-parameter representation summarizes the results obtained from a detailed microphysical model of E, which accounts for the different forces acting on the aerosol in the path of falling cloud droplets. The parametrization's range of validity is for aerosol particle radii of 0.4 to 10 mu m, aerosol particle densities of I to 2.0 g cm(-3), aerosol particle charges from neutral to 100 elementary charges and drop radii from 18.55 to 142 mu m. The parametrization yields values of E well within an order of magnitude of the detailed model's values, from a dataset of 3978 E values. Of these values 95% have modelled to parametrized ratios between 0.5 and 1.5 for aerosol particle sizes ranging between 0.4 and 2.0 mu m, and about 96% in the second size range. This parametrization speeds up the calculation of E by a factor of similar to 10(3) compared with the original microphysical model, permitting the inclusion of electric charge effects in numerical cloud and climate models.

Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change

Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20 km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5 +/- 0.9 K in Greenland and 3.1 +/- 0.8 K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7 m.

Estimation following selection of the largest of two normal means

This paper considers the problem of estimation when one of a number of populations, assumed normal with known common variance, is selected on the basis of it having the largest observed mean. Conditional on selection of the population, the observed mean is a biased estimate of the true mean. This problem arises in the analysis of clinical trials in which selection is made between a number of experimental treatments that are compared with each other either with or without an additional control treatment. Attempts to obtain approximately unbiased estimates in this setting have been proposed by Shen [2001. An improved method of evaluating drug effect in a multiple dose clinical trial. Statist. Medicine 20, 1913–1929] and Stallard and Todd [2005. Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 135, 402–419]. This paper explores the problem in the simple setting in which two experimental treatments are compared in a single analysis. It is shown that in this case the estimate of Stallard and Todd is the maximum-likelihood estimate (m.l.e.), and this is compared with the estimate proposed by Shen. In particular, it is shown that the m.l.e. has infinite expectation whatever the true value of the mean being estimated. We show that there is no conditionally unbiased estimator, and propose a new family of approximately conditionally unbiased estimators, comparing these with the estimators suggested by Shen.

A novel galactooligosaccharide mixture increases the bifidobacterial population numbers in a continuous in vitro fermentation system and in the proximal colonic contents of pigs in vivo

Prebiotics are nondigestible food ingredients that encourage proliferation of selected groups of the colonic microflora, thereby altering the composition toward a more beneficial community. In the present study, the prebiotic potential of a novel galactooligosaccharide (GOS) mixture, produced by the activity of galactosyltransferases from Bifidobacterium bifidum 41171 on lactose, was assessed in vitro and in a parallel continuous randomized pig trial. In situ fluorescent hybridization with 16S rRNA-targeted probes was used to investigate changes in total bacteria, bifidobacteria, lactobacilli, bacteroides, and Clostridium histolyticum group in response to supplementing the novel GOS mixture. In a 3-stage continuous culture system, the bifidobacterial numbers for the first 2 vessels, which represented the proximal and traverse colon, increased (P < 0.05) after the addition of the oligosaccharide mixture. In addition, the oligosaccharide mixture strongly inhibited the attachment of enterohepatic Escherichia coli (P < 0.01) and Salmonella enterica serotype Typhimurium (P < 0.01) to HT29 cells. Addition of the novel mixture at 4% (wt:wt) to a commercial diet increased the density of bificlobacteria (P < 0.001) and the acetate concentration (P < 0.001), and decreased the pH (P < 0.001) compared with the control diet and the control diet supplemented with inulin, suggesting a great prebiotic potential for the novel oligosaccharide mixture. J. Nutr. 135: 1726-1731, 2005.

Microglial activation correlates with severity in Huntington disease: a clinical and PET study

Background: Huntington disease ( HD) is characterized by the progressive death of medium spiny dopamine receptor bearing striatal GABAergic neurons. In addition, microglial activation in the areas of neuronal loss has recently been described in postmortem studies. Activated microglia are known to release neurotoxic cytokines, and these may contribute to the pathologic process. Methods: To evaluate in vivo the involvement of microglia activation in HD, the authors studied patients at different stages of the disease using [ C-11]( R)-PK11195 PET, a marker of microglia activation, and [ C-11] raclopride PET, a marker of dopamine D2 receptor binding and hence striatal GABAergic cell function. Results: In HD patients, a significant increase in striatal [ C-11]( R)-PK11195 binding was observed, which significantly correlated with disease severity as reflected by the striatal reduction in [ C-11] raclopride binding, the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale score, and the patients' CAG index. Also detected were significant increases in microglia activation in cortical regions including prefrontal cortex and anterior cingulate. Conclusions: These [ C-11]( R)-PK11195 PET findings show that the level of microglial activation correlates with Huntington disease ( HD) severity. They lend support to the view that microglia contribute to the ongoing neuronal degeneration in HD and indicate that [ C-11]( R)-PK11195 PET provides a valuable marker when monitoring the efficacy of putative neuroprotecting agents in this relentlessly progressive genetic disorder.

Achieving or exceeding maximum available feedback

A feedback system for control or electronics should have high loop gain, so that its output is close to its desired state, and the effects of changes in the system and of disturbances are minimised. Bode proposed a method for single loop feedback systems to obtain the maximum available feedback, defined as the largest possible loop gain over a bandwidth pertinent to the system, with appropriate gain and phase margins. The method uses asymptotic approximations, and this paper describes some novel adjustments to the asymptotes, so that the final system often exceeds the maximum available feedback. The implementation of the method requires the cascading of a series of lead-lag element. This paper describes a new way to determine how many elements should be used.

Synthesis and properties of tetra-μ-acetatodiruthenium(II,III) phenylphosphinate and phenylphosphonate complexes: X-ray crystal structures of [Ru2(μ-O2CCH3)4(HPhPO2)2]H and [Ru2(μ-O2CCH3)4(PhPO3H)2]H·H2O

Phenylphosphinic acid (HPhPO2H) and phenylphosphonic acid (PhPO3H2) react with a methanolic solution of [Ru2(μ-O2CCH3)4(O2CCH3)2]H·0.7H2O at room temperature to give [Ru2(μ-O2CCH3)4(HPhPO2)2H (1) and [Ru2(μ-O2CCH3)4 (PhPO3H)2]H·H2O (2), respectively. The X-ray crystal structures of 1 and 2 each show the RuRu core to be ligated by four bridging bidentate acetate ligands [RuRu distances: 1 = 2.272(1) Å; 2 = 2.267(2) Å] and two axial phenylphosphinate and phenylphosphonate ligands, respectively. In each complex the individual bimetallic molecules are linked together by a hydrogen ion which bridges the oxygen atoms of neighbouring axial ligands. In 2 the water molecule is also hydrogen-bonded to one of the axial phenylphosphonate groups. Spectroscopic, magnetic and cyclic voltammetric data for the complexes are given.

Space heating and hot water demand analysis of dwellings connected to district heating scheme in UK

To achieve CO2 emissions reductions the UK Building Regulations require developers of new residential buildings to calculate expected CO2 emissions arising from their energy consumption using a methodology such as Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP 2005) or, more recently SAP 2009. SAP encompasses all domestic heat consumption and a limited proportion of the electricity consumption. However, these calculations are rarely verified with real energy consumption and related CO2 emissions. This paper presents the results of an analysis based on weekly head demand data for more than 200 individual flats. The data is collected from recently built residential development connected to a district heating network. A methodology for separating out the domestic hot water use (DHW) and space heating demand (SH) has been developed and compares measured values to the demand calculated using SAP 2005 and 2009 methodologies. The analysis shows also the variance in DHW and SH consumption between both size of the flats and tenure (privately owned or housing association). Evaluation of the space heating consumption includes also an estimation of the heating degree day (HDD) base temperature for each block of flats and its comparison to the average base temperature calculated using the SAP 2005 methodology.

The 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa in ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal forecast products

This study evaluates the use of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in monitoring and forecasting drought conditions during the recent 2010–2011 drought in the Horn of Africa (HoA). The region was affected by a precipitation deficit in both the October–December 2010 and March–May 2011 rainy seasons. These anomalies were captured by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), despite its limitations in representing the March–May interannual variability. Soil moisture anomalies of ERAI also identified the onset of the drought condition early in October 2010 with a persistent drought still present in September 2011. This signal was also evident in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) remote sensing data. The precipitation deficit in October–December 2010 was associated with a strong La Niña event. The ECMWF seasonal forecasts for the October–December 2010 season predicted the La Niña event from June 2010 onwards. The forecasts also predicted a below-average October–December rainfall, from July 2010 onwards. The subsequent March–May rainfall anomaly was only captured by the new ECWMF seasonal forecast system in the forecasts starting in March 2011. Our analysis shows that a recent (since 1999) drying in the region during the March–May season is captured by the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system and is consistent with recently published results. The HoA region and its population are highly vulnerable to future droughts, thus global monitoring and forecasting of drought, such as that presented here, will become increasingly important in the future. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Second tier professionals: English teachers in England

The policy context for mother-tongue educators at all levels in England has been dominated by a matrix with four key elements,running along two spectra, one of learning (content↘assessment) and one of teaching (autonomy↘accountability). In each case the trend has been towards increasing external control and decreasing professional autonomy. Whilst some imposed changes have been recognised as intrinsically valuable, the majority are viewed as detrimental to teachers' status and obstructive for students. The research community has been largely marginalised and has had little scope to influence proceedings. A rapidly developing crisis in teacher retention may yet reverse these trends as the government is forced to recognise the long-term implications of their treatment of the profession.

Redox-active, dinuclear sandwich compounds [Cp*Fe(μ-L)FeCp*] (L = naphthalene and anthracene)

Although there has been much interest in the chemistry of bimetallic transition metal complexes, compounds with naphthalene or anthracene as bridging ligands are still rare. In this article, we describe the synthesis of the homodinuclear iron complexes [Cp*Fe(μ-η4:η4-L)FeCp*] (1: L = C10H8, 2: L = C14H10; Cp* = η5-C5Me5). The complexes were characterized by 1H and 13C{1H} NMR, UV/Vis, and 57Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy, and their molecular structures were determined by X-ray crystallography. Both complexes are diamagnetic as a result of the strong magnetic coupling of the 17e FeI centers mediated by the polyarene bridge. An analysisof the redox behavior of 1 and 2 by cyclic voltammetry andUV/Vis spectroelectrochemistry shows that the complexes can be oxidized reversibly in two well-separated one-electron steps to the monocation [Cp*Fe(μ-L)FeCp*]+ and the dication [Cp*Fe(μ-L)FeCp*]2+. The reduction to the monoanion [Cp*Fe(μ-L)FeCp*]– was also observed.

Departures from convective equilibrium with a rapidly-varying surface forcing

Convective equilibrium is a long-standing and useful concept for understanding many aspects of the behaviour of deep moist convection. For example, it is often invoked in developing parameterizations for large-scale models. However, the equilibrium assumption may begin to break down as models are increasingly used with shorter timesteps and finer resolutions. Here we perform idealized cloud-system resolving model simulations of deep convection with imposed time variations in the surface forcing. A range of rapid forcing timescales from 1 − 36hr are used, in order to induce systematic departures from equilibrium. For the longer forcing timescales, the equilibrium assumption remains valid, in at least the limited sense that cycle-integrated measures of convective activity are very similar from cycle to cycle. For shorter forcing timescales, cycle-integrated convection becomes more variable, with enhanced activity on one cycle being correlated with reduced activity on the next, suggesting a role for convective memory. Further investigation shows that the memory does not appear to be carried by the domain-mean thermodynamic fields but rather by structures on horizontal scales of 5 − 20km. Such structures are produced by the convective clouds and can persist beyond the lifetime of the cloud, even through to the next forcing cycle.