Recent glacier retreat in the Caucasus Mountains, Russia, and associated increase in supraglacial debris cover and supra-/proglacial lake development

This paper reports changes in supraglacial debris cover and supra-/proglacial lake development associated with recent glacier retreat (1985-2000) in the central Caucasus Mountains, Russia. Satellite imagery (Landsat TM and ETM+) was used to map the surface area and supraglacial debris cover on six neighbouring glaciers in the Adylsu valley through a process of manual digitizing on a false-colour composite of bands 5, 4, 3 (red, green, blue). The distribution and surface area of supraglacial and proglacial lakes was digitized for a larger area, which extended to the whole Landsat scene. We also compare our satellite interpretations to field observations in the Adylsu valley. Supraglacial debris cover ranges from < 5% to > 25% on individual glaciers, but glacier retreat between 1985 and 2000 resulted in a 3-6% increase in the proportion of each glacier covered by debris. The only exception to this trend was a very small glacier where debris cover did not change significantly and remote mapping proved more difficult. The increase in debris cover is characterized by a progressive upglacier migration, which we suggest is being driven by focused ablation (and therefore glacier thinning) at the up-glacier limit of the debris cover, resulting in the progressive exposure of englacial debris. Glacier retreat has also been accompanied by an increase in the number of proglacial and supraglacial lakes in our study area, from 16 in 1985 to 24 in 2000, representing a 57% increase in their cumulative surface area. These lakes appear to be impounded by relatively recently lateral and terminal moraines and by debris deposits on the surface of the glacier. The changes in glacier surface characteristics reported here are likely to exert a profound influence on glacier mass balance and their future response to climate change. They may also increase the likelihood of glacier-related hazards (lake outbursts, debris slides), and future monitoring is recommended.

Complexation of lanthanides, actinides and transition metal cations with a 6-(1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)-2,2′:6′,2′′-terpyridine ligand: implications for actinide(III)/lanthanide(III) partitioning

The quadridentate N-heterocyclic ligand 6-(5,5,8,8-tetramethyl-5,6,7,8-tetrahydro-1,2,4-benzotriazin- 3-yl)-2,2′ : 6′,2′′-terpyridine (CyMe4-hemi-BTBP) has been synthesized and its interactions with Am(III),U(VI), Ln(III) and some transition metal cations have been evaluated by X-ray crystallographic analysis, Am(III)/Eu(III) solvent extraction experiments, UVabsorption spectrophotometry, NMR studies and ESI-MS. Structures of 1 : 1 complexes with Eu(III), Ce(III) and the linear uranyl (UO2 2+) ion were obtained by X-ray crystallographic analysis, and they showed similar coordination behavior to related BTBP complexes. In methanol, the stability constants of the Ln(III) complexes are slightly lower than those of the analogous quadridentate bis-triazine BTBP ligands, while the stability constant for the Yb(III)complex is higher. 1H NMR titrations and ESI-MS with lanthanide nitrates showed that the ligand forms only 1 : 1 complexes with Eu(III), Ce(III) and Yb(III), while both 1 : 1 and 1 : 2 complexes were formed with La(III) and Y(III) in acetonitrile. A mixture of isomeric chiral 2 : 2 helical complexes was formed with Cu(I), with a slight preference (1.4 : 1) for a single directional isomer. In contrast, a 1 : 1 complex was observed with the larger Ag(I) ion. The ligand was unable to extract Am(III) or Eu(III) from nitric acid solutions into 1-octanol, except in the presence of a synergist at low acidity. The results show that the presence of two outer 1,2,4-triazine rings is required for the efficient extraction and separation of An(III)from Ln(III) by quadridentate N-donor ligands.

Briefing: re-engineering the city 2020–2050 – urban foresight and transition management

Cities may be responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption and by 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population could live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city regions systemically to re-engineer their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. Re-Engineering the City 2020–2050: Urban Foresight and Transition Management (Retrofit 2050) is a major new interdisciplinary project funded under the Engineering and Physical Science Research Council's (EPSRC) Sustainable Urban Environments Programme which seeks to address this challenge. This briefing describes the background and conceptual framing of Retrofit 2050 project, its aims and objectives and research approach.

Concessionary nature of public-private partnerships in Russia and Kazakhstan: a critical review

This article provides a critical overview of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Russia and Kazakhstan and examines the rationale underpinning such partnerships. The analysis discusses the reasons why governments in Russia and Kazakhstan focus principally on concessions as a form of PPP and goes on to provide a critical assessment of the key approaches and situational factors relating to concessions in these two countries. The article finds that external globalization impulses pressed Russia and Kazakhstan to align their policies and institutions with western orthodoxy and perceived international best practice. An ever-increasing emphasis on use of PPPs has been a key feature of this alignment. However, the governments of Russia and Kazakhstan have increasingly resorted to concessions as progress with the development and implementation of Western style PPP models has stalled. This article concludes that the governments of Russia and Kazakhstan have demonstrated an overly optimistic approach to PPP and as a result may have substantially understated their overall concessional risks and costs. Features of Russian and Kazakhstani PPP arrangements such as ambiguity in output specification and extensive reliance on government subsidies, combined with lack of expertise of private partners, may significantly decrease concession benefits.

Dynamic simulation studies of structural formation and transition in electro-magneto-rheological fluids

The computer simulation method has been used to study the structural formation and transition of electro-magneto-rheological (EMR) fluids under compatible electric and magnetic fields. When the fields are applied simultaneously and perpendicularly to each other, the particles rapidly arrange into two-dimensional close-packed layer structures parallel to both fields. The layers then combine together to form thicker sheet-like structures, which finally relax into three-dimensional close-packed structures with the help of the thermal fluctuations. On the other hand, if the electric field is applied firstly to induce the body-centered tetragonal (BCT) columns in the system, and then the magnetic field is applied in the perpendicular direction. the BCT to face-centered cubic (FCC) structure transition is observed in very short time. Following that. the structure keeps on evolving due to the demagnetization effect and finally form the three-dimensional close-packed structures.

Simulation of field-induced structural formation and transition in electromagnetorheological suspensions

A computer simulation method has been used to study the three-dimensional structural formation and transition of eleetromagnetorheological (EMR) suspensions under compatible electric and magnetic fields. When the fields are applied simultaneously and perpendicularly to each other, the particles rapidly arrange into single layer structures parallel to both fields. In each layer, there is a two-dimensional hexagonal lattice. The single layers then combine together to form thicker sheetlike structures. With the help of the thermal fluctuations, the thicker structures relax into three-dimensional close-packed structures, which may be face-centered cubic (fcc), hexagonal close-packed (hup) lattices, or, more probably, the mixture of them, depending on the initial configurations and the thermal fluctuations. On the other hand, if the electric field is applied first to induce the body-centered tetragonal (bct) columns in the system, and then the magnetic field is applied in the perpendicular direction, the bet to fee structure transition is observed in a very short time. Following that, the structure keeps on evolving due to the demagnetization effect and finally forms close-packed structures with fee and hcp lattice character. The simulation results are in agreement with the theoretical and experimental results.

Mode-specificity and transition state-specific energy redistribution in the chemisorption of CH4 on Ni{100}

We have investigated methane (CH4) dissociative chemisorption on the Ni{100} surface by first-principles molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Our results show that this reaction is mode-specific, with the n1 state being the most strongly coupled to efficient energy flow into the reaction coordinate when the molecule reaches the transition state. By performing MD simulations for two different transition state (TS) structures we provide evidence of TS structure-specific energy redistribution in methane chemisorption. Our results are compared with recently reported state-resolved measurement of methane adsorption probability on nickel surfaces, and we find that a strong correlation exists between the highest vibrational efficacy measured on Ni{100} for the n1 state and the calculated highest fractional vibrational energy content in this mode.

Civilian casualties – do we really care? The failure of the revolution in military affairs of non-lethal weapons in the U.S., Russia and Israel

Causing civilian casualties during military operations has become a much politicised topic in international relations since the Second World War. Since the last decade of the 20th century, different scholars and political analysts have claimed that human life is valued more and more among the general international community. This argument has led many researchers to assume that democratic culture and traditions, modern ethical and moral issues have created a desire for a world without war or, at least, a demand that contemporary armed conflicts, if unavoidable, at least have to be far less lethal forcing the military to seek new technologies that can minimise civilian casualties and collateral damage. Non-Lethal Weapons (NLW) – weapons that are intended to minimise civilian casualties and collateral damage – are based on the technology that, during the 1990s, was expected to revolutionise the conduct of warfare making it significantly less deadly. The rapid rise of interest in NLW, ignited by the American military twenty five years ago, sparked off an entirely new military, as well as an academic, discourse concerning their potential contribution to military success on the 21st century battlefields. It seems, however, that except for this debate, very little has been done within the military forces themselves. This research suggests that the roots of this situation are much deeper than the simple professional misconduct of the military establishment, or the poor political behaviour of political leaders, who had sent them to fight. Following the story of NLW in the U.S., Russia and Israel this research focuses on the political and cultural aspects that have been supposed to force the military organisations of these countries to adopt new technologies and operational and organisational concepts regarding NLW in an attempt to minimise enemy civilian casualties during their military operations. This research finds that while American, Russian and Israeli national characters are, undoubtedly, products of the unique historical experience of each one of these nations, all of three pay very little regard to foreigners’ lives. Moreover, while it is generally argued that the international political pressure is a crucial factor that leads to the significant reduction of harmed civilians and destroyed civilian infrastructure, the findings of this research suggest that the American, Russian and Israeli governments are well prepared and politically equipped to fend off international criticism. As the analyses of the American, Russian and Israeli cases reveal, the political-military leaderships of these countries have very little external or domestic reasons to minimise enemy civilian casualties through fundamental-revolutionary change in their conduct of war. In other words, this research finds that employment of NLW have failed because the political leadership asks the militaries to reduce the enemy civilian casualties to a politically acceptable level, rather than to the technologically possible minimum; as in the socio-cultural-political context of each country, support for the former appears to be significantly higher than for the latter.

Interactions between mass balance, atmospheric circulation, and recent climate change on the Djankuat Glacier, Caucasus Mountains, Russia

This paper reports recent changes in the mass balance record from the Djankuat Glacier, central greater Caucasus, Russia, and investigates possible relationships between the components of mass balance, local climate, and distant atmospheric forcing. The results clearly show that a strong warming signal has emerged in the central greater Caucasus, particularly since the 1993/1994 mass balance year, and this has led to a significant increase in the summer ablation of Djankuat. At the same time, there has been no compensating consistent increase in winter precipitation and accumulation leading to the strong net loss of mass and increase in glacier runoff. Interannual variability in ablation and accumulation is partly associated with certain major patterns of Northern Hemisphere climatic variability. The positive phase of the North Pacific (NP) teleconnection pattern forces negative geopotential height and temperature anomalies over the Caucasus in summer and results in reduced summer melt, such as in the early 1990s, when positive NP extremes resulted in a temporary decline in ablation rates. The positive phase of the NP is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and it is possible that a teleconnection between the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and summer air temperatures in the Caucasus is bridged through the NP pattern. More recently, the NP pattern was predominantly negative, and this distant moderating forcing on summer ablation in the Caucasus was absent. Statistically significant correlations are observed between accumulation and the Scandinavian (SCA) teleconnection pattern. The frequent occurrence of the positive SCA phase at the beginning of accumulation season results in lower than average snowfall and reduced accumulation. The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation, and accumulation is weak, although positive precipitation anomalies in the winter months are associated with the negative phase of the NAO. A stronger positive correlation is observed between accumulation on Djankuat and geopotential height over the Bay of Biscay unrelated to the established modes of the Northern Hemisphere climatic variability. These results imply that the mass balance of Djankuat is sensitive to the natural variability in the climate system. Distant forcing, however, explains only 16% of the variance in the ablation record and cannot fully explain the recent increase in ablation and negative mass balance.

Deglaciation of the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia, in the 21st century observed with ASTER satellite imagery and aerial photograpy

Changes in the map area of 498 glaciers located on the Main Caucasus ridge (MCR) and on Mt. Elbrus in the Greater Caucasus Mountains (Russia and Georgia) were assessed using multispectral ASTER and panchromatic Landsat imagery with 15 m spatial resolution in 1999/2001 and 2010/2012. Changes in recession rates of glacier snouts between 1987–2001 and 2001–2010 were investigated using aerial photography and ASTER imagery for a sub-sample of 44 glaciers. In total, glacier area decreased by 4.7 ± 2.1% or 19.2 ± 8.7 km2 from 407.3 ± 5.4 km2 to 388.1 ± 5.2 km2. Glaciers located in the central and western MCR lost 13.4 ± 7.3 km2 (4.7 ± 2.5%) in total or 8.5 km2 (5.0 ± 2.4%) and 4.9 km2 (4.1 ± 2.7%) respectively. Glaciers on Mt. Elbrus, although located at higher elevations, lost 5.8 ± 1.4 km2 (4.9 ± 1.2%) of their total area. The recession rates of valley glacier termini increased between 1987–2000/01 and 2000/01–2010 (2000 for the western MCR and 2001 for the central MCR and Mt.~Elbrus) from 3.8 ± 0.8, 3.2 ± 0.9 and 8.3 ± 0.8 m yr−1 to 11.9 ± 1.1, 8.7 ± 1.1 and 14.1 ± 1.1 m yr−1 in the central and western MCR and on Mt. Elbrus respectively. The highest rate of increase in glacier termini retreat was registered on the southern slope of the central MCR where it has tripled. A positive trend in summer temperatures forced glacier recession, and strong positive temperature anomalies in 1998, 2006, and 2010 contributed to the enhanced loss of ice. An increase in accumulation season precipitation observed in the northern MCR since the mid-1980s has not compensated for the effects of summer warming while the negative precipitation anomalies, observed on the southern slope of the central MCR in the 1990s, resulted in stronger glacier wastage.