How well does the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System predict blocking?

Forecasting atmospheric blocking is one of the main problems facing medium-range weather forecasters in the extratropics. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provides an excellent basis for medium-range forecasting as it provides a number of different possible realizations of the meteorological future. This ensemble of forecasts attempts to account for uncertainties in both the initial conditions and the model formulation. Since 18 July 2000, routine output from the EPS has included the field of potential temperature on the potential vorticity (PV) D 2 PV units (PVU) surface, the dynamical tropopause. This has enabled the objective identification of blocking using an index based on the reversal of the meridional potential-temperature gradient. A year of EPS probability forecasts of Euro-Atlantic and Pacific blocking have been produced and are assessed in this paper, concentrating on the Euro-Atlantic sector. Standard verification techniques such as Brier scores, Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and reliability diagrams are used. It is shown that Euro-Atlantic sector-blocking forecasts are skilful relative to climatology out to 10 days, and are more skilful than the deterministic control forecast at all lead times. The EPS is also more skilful than a probabilistic version of this deterministic forecast, though the difference is smaller. In addition, it is shown that the onset of a sector-blocking episode is less well predicted than its decay. As the lead time increases, the probability forecasts tend towards a model climatology with slightly less blocking than is seen in the real atmosphere. This small under-forecasting bias in the blocking forecasts is possibly related to a westerly bias in the ECMWF model. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

Evaluation of peak-picking algorithms for protein mass spectrometry

Peak picking is an early key step in MS data analysis. We compare three commonly used approaches to peak picking and discuss their merits by means of statistical analysis. Methods investigated encompass signal-to-noise ratio, continuous wavelet transform, and a correlation-based approach using a Gaussian template. Functionality of the three methods is illustrated and discussed in a practical context using a mass spectral data set created with MALDI-TOF technology. Sensitivity and specificity are investigated using a manually defined reference set of peaks. As an additional criterion, the robustness of the three methods is assessed by a perturbation analysis and illustrated using ROC curves.

Planning rigid body motions using elastic curves

This paper tackles the problem of computing smooth, optimal trajectories on the Euclidean group of motions SE(3). The problem is formulated as an optimal control problem where the cost function to be minimized is equal to the integral of the classical curvature squared. This problem is analogous to the elastic problem from differential geometry and thus the resulting rigid body motions will trace elastic curves. An application of the Maximum Principle to this optimal control problem shifts the emphasis to the language of symplectic geometry and to the associated Hamiltonian formalism. This results in a system of first order differential equations that yield coordinate free necessary conditions for optimality for these curves. From these necessary conditions we identify an integrable case and these particular set of curves are solved analytically. These analytic solutions provide interpolating curves between an initial given position and orientation and a desired position and orientation that would be useful in motion planning for systems such as robotic manipulators and autonomous-oriented vehicles.

Finding the point on Bezier Curves with the normal vector passing an external point

Two algorithms for finding the point on non-rational/rational Bezier curves of which the normal vector passes through a given external point are presented. The algorithms are based on Bezier curves generation algorithms of de Casteljau's algorithm for non-rational Bezier curve or Farin's recursion for rational Bezier curve, respectively. Orthogonal projections from the external point are used to guide the directional search used in the proposed iterative algorithms. Using Lyapunov's method, it is shown that each algorithm is able to converge to a local minimum for each case of non-rational/rational Bezier curves. It is also shown that on convergence the distance between the point on curves to the external point reaches a local minimum for both approaches. Illustrative examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

The elasticity of demand is about occupancy, not prices: building European demand curves based on occupancy elasticity

The peak congestion of the European grid may create significant impacts on system costs because of the need for higher marginal cost generation, higher cost system balancing and increasing grid reinforcement investment. The use of time of use rates, incentives, real time pricing and other programmes, usually defined as Demand Side Management (DSM), could bring about significant reductions in prices, limit carbon emissions from dirty power plants, and improve the integration of renewable sources of energy. Unlike previous studies on elasticity of residential electricity demand under flat tariffs, the aim of this study is not to investigate the known relatively inelastic relationship between demand and prices. Rather, the aim is to assess how occupancy levels vary in different European countries. This reflects the reality of demand loads, which are predominantly determined by the timing of human activities (e.g. travelling to work, taking children to school) rather than prices. To this end, two types of occupancy elasticity are estimated: baseline occupancy elasticity and peak occupancy elasticity. These represent the intrinsic elasticity associated with human activities of single residential end-users in 15 European countries. This study makes use of occupancy time-series data from the Harmonised European Time Use Survey database to build European occupancy curves; identify peak occupancy periods; draw time use demand curves for video and TV watching activity; and estimate national occupancy elasticity levels of single-occupant households. Findings on occupancy elasticities provide an indication of possible DSM strategies based on occupancy levels and not prices.

GTP binding and intramolecular regulation by the ROC domain of Death Associated Protein Kinase 1

The ROCO proteins are a family of large, multidomain proteins characterised by the presence of a Ras of complex proteins (ROC) domain followed by a COR, or C-terminal of ROC, domain. It has previously been shown that the ROC domain of the human ROCO protein Leucine Rich Repeat Kinase 2 (LRRK2) controls its kinase activity. Here, the ability of the ROC domain of another human ROCO protein, Death Associated Protein Kinase 1 (DAPK1), to bind GTP and control its kinase activity has been evaluated. In contrast to LRRK2, loss of GTP binding by DAPK1 does not result in loss of kinase activity, instead acting to modulate this activity. These data highlight the ROC domain of DAPK1 as a target for modifiers of this proteins function, and casts light on the role of ROC domains as intramolecular regulators in complex proteins with implications for a broad range of human diseases.

Structure of the ROC domain from the Parkinson's disease-associated leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 reveals a dimeric GTPase

Mutations in leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) are the most common cause of Parkinson's disease (PD). LRRK2 contains a Ras of complex proteins (ROC) domain that may act as a GTPase to regulate its protein kinase activity. The structure of ROC and the mechanism(s) by which it regulates kinase activity are not known. Here, we report the crystal structure of the LRRK2 ROC domain in complex with GDP-Mg2+ at 2.0-Å resolution. The structure displays a dimeric fold generated by extensive domain-swapping, resulting in a pair of active sites constructed with essential functional groups contributed from both monomers. Two PD-associated pathogenic residues, R1441 and I1371, are located at the interface of two monomers and provide exquisite interactions to stabilize the ROC dimer. The structure demonstrates that loss of stabilizing forces in the ROC dimer is likely related to decreased GTPase activity resulting from mutations at these sites. Our data suggest that the ROC domain may regulate LRRK2 kinase activity as a dimer, possibly via the C-terminal of ROC (COR) domain as a molecular hinge. The structure of the LRRK2 ROC domain also represents a signature from a previously undescribed class of GTPases from complex proteins and results may provide a unique molecular target for therapeutics in PD.

The R1441C mutation alters the folding properties of the ROC domain of LRRK2

LRRK2 is a 250 kDa multidomain protein, mutations in which cause familial Parkinson's disease. Previously, we have demonstrated that the R1441C mutation in the ROC domain decreases GTPase activity. Here we show that the R1441C alters the folding properties of the ROC domain, lowering its thermodynamic stability. Similar to small GTPases, binding of different guanosine nucleotides alters the stability of the ROC domain, suggesting that there is an alteration in conformation dependent on GDP or GTP occupying the active site. GTP/GDP bound state also alters the self-interaction of the ROC domain, accentuating the impact of the R1441C mutation on this property. These data suggest a mechanism whereby the R1441C mutation can reduce the GTPase activity of LRRK2, and highlights the possibility of targeting the stability of the ROC domain as a therapeutic avenue in LRRK2 disease.

Anodic polarization curves revisited

An experiment published in this Journal has been revisited and it is found that the curve pattern of the anodic polarization curve for iron repeats itself successively when the potential scan is repeated. It is surprising that this observation has not been reported previously in the literature because it immediately brings into question the long accepted and well-known explanations involving a passive film. A qualitative and plausible explanation is provided from surprisingly simple principles for this new finding. Some important pedagogic conclusions have been derived from this work. It is noteworthy that the somewhat complicated phenomenon can be simply explained, thus providing two important lessons to students. First, even well-accepted scientific work studying simple processes may be incomplete and worthy of further study, and second, such processes may be explained simply at the undergraduate level. The contents of the paper also confirm that presenting curricular contents in a new and more correct manner is beneficial, interesting, and that research in curricular contents represents one of the important forms of educational research.