Non-normal real estate return distributions by property type in the UK

Investment risk models with infinite variance provide a better description of distributions of individual property returns in the IPD UK database over the period 1981 to 2003 than normally distributed risk models. This finding mirrors results in the US and Australia using identical methodology. Real estate investment risk is heteroskedastic, but the characteristic exponent of the investment risk function is constant across time – yet it may vary by property type. Asset diversification is far less effective at reducing the impact of non‐systematic investment risk on real estate portfolios than in the case of assets with normally distributed investment risk. The results, therefore, indicate that multi‐risk factor portfolio allocation models based on measures of investment codependence from finite‐variance statistics are ineffective in the real estate context

Non-normal real estate return distributions by property type in the U.K.

Investment risk models with infinite variance provide a better description of distributions of individual property returns in the IPD database over the period 1981 to 2003 than Normally distributed risk models, which mirrors results in the U.S. and Australia using identical methodology. Real estate investment risk is heteroscedastic, but the Characteristic Exponent of the investment risk function is constant across time yet may vary by property type. Asset diversification is far less effective at reducing the impact of non-systematic investment risk on real estate portfolios than in the case of assets with Normally distributed investment risk. Multi-risk factor portfolio allocation models based on measures of investment codependence from finite-variance statistics are ineffectual in the real estate context.

Very short delays prior to escape from potential predators may function efficiently as adaptive risk-assessment periods

Periods between predator detection and an escape response (escape delays) by prey upon attack by a predator often arise because animals trade-off the benefits such a delay gives for assessing risk accurately with the costs of not escaping as quickly as possible. We tested whether freezing behaviour (complete immobility in a previously foraging bird) observed in chaffinches before escaping from an approaching potential threat functions as a period of risk-assessment, and whether information on predator identity is gained even when time available is very short. We flew either a model of a sparrowhawk (predator) or a woodpigeon (no threat) at single chaffinches. Escape delays were significantly shorter with the hawk, except when a model first appeared close to the chaffinch. Chaffinches were significantly more vigilant when they resumed feeding after exposure to the sparrowhawk compared to the woodpigeon showing that they were able to distinguish between threats, and this applied even when time available for assessment was short (an average of 0.29 s). Our results show freezing in chaffinches functions as an effective economic risk assessment period, and that threat information is gained even when very short periods of time are available during an attack.

Daily consumption of an aqueous green tea extract supplement does not impair liver function or alter cardiovascular disease risk biomarkers in healthy men

Regular consumption of green tea polyphenols (GTP) is thought to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but has also been associated with liver toxicity. The present trial aimed to assess the safety and potential CVD health beneficial effects of daily GTP consumption. We conducted a placebo-controlled parallel study to evaluate the chronic effects of GTP on liver function and CVD risk biomarkers in healthy men. Volunteers (treatment: n = 17, BMI 26.7 +/- 3.3 kg/m(2), age 41 +/- 9 y; placebo, n = 16, BMI 25.4 +/- 3.3 kg/m(2), age 40 +/- 10 y) consumed for 3 wk 6 capsules per day (2 before each principal meal) containing green tea extracts (equivalent to 714 mg/d GTP) or placebo. At the beginning and end of the intervention period, we collected blood samples from fasting subjects and measured vascular tone using Laser Doppler lontophoresis. Biomarkers of liver function and CVD risk (including blood pressure, plasma lipids, and asymmetric dimethylarginine) were unaffected by GTP consumption. After treatment, the ratio of total:HDL cholesterol was significantly reduced in participants taking GTP capsules compared with baseline. Endothelial-dependent and -independent vascular reactivity did not significantly differ between treatments. In conclusion, the present data suggests that the daily consumption of high doses of GTP by healthy men for 3 wk is safe but without effects on CVD risk biomarkers other than the total:HDL cholesterol ratio. J. Nutr. 139: 58-62, 2009.

Ethnic differences in beta-cell function, dietary intake and expression of the metabolic syndrome among UK adults of south Asian, black African-Caribbean and white-European origin at high risk of metabolic syndrome

A cross-sectional analysis of ethnic differences in dietary intake, insulin sensitivity and beta-cell function, using the intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT), was conducted on 497 healthy adult participants of the ‘Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, and Kings’ (RISCK) study. Insulin sensitivity (Si) was significantly lower in African-Caribbean (AC) and South Asian (SA) participants [IVGTT-Si; AC: 2.13 vs SA: 2.25 vs white-European (WE): 2.84 (×10−4 mL µU min)2, p < 0.001]. AC participants had a higher prevalence of anti-hypertensive therapy (AC: 19.7% vs SA: 7.5%), the most cardioprotective lipid profile [total:high-density lipoprotein (HDL); AC: 3.52 vs SA: 4.08 vs WE: 3.83, p = 0.03] and more pronounced hyperinsulinaemia [IVGTT–acute insulin response (AIR)] [AC: 575 vs SA: 428 vs WE: 344 mL/µU/min)2, p = 0.002], specifically in female participants. Intake of saturated fat and carbohydrate was lower and higher in AC (10.9% and 50.4%) and SA (11.1% and 52.3%), respectively, compared to WE (13.6% and 43.8%, p < 0.001). Insulin resistance in ACs is characterised by ‘normal’ lipid profiles but high rates of hypertension and pronounced hyperinsulinaemia.

Cocoa flavanol intake improves endothelial function and Framingham Risk Score in healthy men and women: a randomised, controlled, double-masked trial: the Flaviola Health Study

Cocoa flavanol (CF) intake improves endothelial function in patients with cardiovascular risk factors and disease. We investigated the effects of CF on surrogate markers of cardiovascular health in low risk, healthy, middle-aged individuals without history, signs or symptoms of CVD. In a 1-month, open-label, one-armed pilot study, bi-daily ingestion of 450 mg of CF led to a time-dependent increase in endothelial function (measured as flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD)) that plateaued after 2 weeks. Subsequently, in a randomised, controlled, double-masked, parallel-group dietary intervention trial (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01799005), 100 healthy, middle-aged (35–60 years) men and women consumed either the CF-containing drink (450 mg) or a nutrient-matched CF-free control bi-daily for 1 month. The primary end point was FMD. Secondary end points included plasma lipids and blood pressure, thus enabling the calculation of Framingham Risk Scores and pulse wave velocity. At 1 month, CF increased FMD over control by 1·2 % (95 % CI 1·0, 1·4 %). CF decreased systolic and diastolic blood pressure by 4·4 mmHg (95 % CI 7·9, 0·9 mmHg) and 3·9 mmHg (95 % CI 6·7, 0·9 mmHg), pulse wave velocity by 0·4 m/s (95 % CI 0·8, 0·04 m/s), total cholesterol by 0·20 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·39, 0·01 mmol/l) and LDL-cholesterol by 0·17 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·32, 0·02 mmol/l), whereas HDL-cholesterol increased by 0·10 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·04, 0·17 mmol/l). By applying the Framingham Risk Score, CF predicted a significant lowering of 10-year risk for CHD, myocardial infarction, CVD, death from CHD and CVD. In healthy individuals, regular CF intake improved accredited cardiovascular surrogates of cardiovascular risk, demonstrating that dietary flavanols have the potential to maintain cardiovascular health even in low-risk subjects.

Production risk, pesticide use and GM crop technology in South Africa

Technology involving genetic modification of crops has the potential to make a contribution to rural poverty reduction in many developing countries. Thus far, pesticide-producing Bacillus thuringensis (Bt) varieties of cotton have been the main GM crops under cultivation in developing nations. Several studies have evaluated the farm-level performance of Bt varieties in comparison to conventional ones by estimating production technology, and have mostly found Bt technology to be very successful in raising output and/or reducing pesticide input. However, the production risk properties of this technology have not been studied, although they are likely to be important to risk-averse smallholders. This study investigates the output risk aspects of Bt technology by estimating two 'flexible risk' production function models allowing technology to independently affect the mean and higher moments of output. The first is the popular Just-Pope model and the second is a more general 'damage control' flexible risk model. The models are applied to cross-sectional data on South African smallholders, some of whom used Bt varieties. The results show no evidence that a 'risk-reduction' claim can be made for Bt technology. Indeed, there is some evidence to support the notion that the technology increases output risk, implying that simple (expected) profit computations used in past evaluations may overstate true benefits.

Modelling risk perception and trust in food safety information within the theory of planned behaviour

This study suggests a statistical strategy for explaining how food purchasing intentions are influenced by different levels of risk perception and trust in food safety information. The modelling process is based on Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behaviour and includes trust and risk perception as additional explanatory factors. Interaction and endogeneity across these determinants is explored through a system of simultaneous equations, while the SPARTA equation is estimated through an ordered probit model. Furthermore, parameters are allowed to vary as a function of socio-demographic variables. The application explores chicken purchasing intentions both in a standard situation and conditional to an hypothetical salmonella scare. Data were collected through a nationally representative UK wide survey of 533 UK respondents in face-to-face, in-home interviews. Empirical findings show that interactions exist among the determinants of planned behaviour and socio-demographic variables improve the model's performance. Attitudes emerge as the key determinant of intention to purchase chicken, while trust in food safety information provided by media reduces the likelihood to purchase. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Output risk aspects of genetically modified crop technology in South Africa

Technology involving genetic modification of crops has the potential to make a contribution to rural poverty reduction in many developing countries. Thus far, insecticide-producing 'Bt' varieties of cotton have been the main GM crops under cultivation in developing nations. Several studies have evaluated the farm-level performance of Bt varieties in comparison to conventional ones by estimating production technology, and have mostly found Bt technology to be very successful in raising output and/or reducing insecticide input. However, the production risk properties of this technology have not been studied, although they are likely to be important to risk-averse smallholders. This study investigates the output risk aspects of Bt technology using a three-year farm-level dataset on smallholder cotton production in Makhathini flats, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa. Stochastic dominance and stochastic production function estimation methods are used to examine the risk properties of the two technologies. Results indicate that Bt technology increases output risk by being most effective when crop growth conditions are good, but being less effective when conditions are less favourable. However, in spite of its risk increasing effect, the mean output performance of Bt cotton is good enough to make it preferable to conventional technology even for risk-averse smallholders.

Production risk, pesticide use and GM crop technology in South Africa

Technology involving genetic modification of crops has the potential to make a contribution to rural poverty reduction in many developing countries. Thus far, pesticide-producing Bacillus thuringensis (Bt) varieties of cotton have been the main GM crops under cultivation in developing nations. Several studies have evaluated the farm-level performance of Bt varieties in comparison to conventional ones by estimating production technology, and have mostly found Bt technology to be very successful in raising output and/or reducing pesticide input. However, the production risk properties of this technology have not been studied, although they are likely to be important to risk-averse smallholders. This study investigates the output risk aspects of Bt technology by estimating two 'flexible risk' production function models allowing technology to independently affect the mean and higher moments of output. The first is the popular Just-Pope model and the second is a more general 'damage control' flexible risk model. The models are applied to cross-sectional data on South African smallholders, some of whom used Bt varieties. The results show no evidence that a 'risk-reduction' claim can be made for Bt technology. Indeed, there is some evidence to support the notion that the technology increases output risk, implying that simple (expected) profit computations used in past evaluations may overstate true benefits.

Action following the discovery of a global association between the whole genome and adverse event risk in a clinical drug-development programme

Observation of adverse drug reactions during drug development can cause closure of the whole programme. However, if association between the genotype and the risk of an adverse event is discovered, then it might suffice to exclude patients of certain genotypes from future recruitment. Various sequential and non-sequential procedures are available to identify an association between the whole genome, or at least a portion of it, and the incidence of adverse events. In this paper we start with a suspected association between the genotype and the risk of an adverse event and suppose that the genetic subgroups with elevated risk can be identified. Our focus is determination of whether the patients identified as being at risk should be excluded from further studies of the drug. We propose using a utility function to? determine the appropriate action, taking into account the relative costs of suffering an adverse reaction and of failing to alleviate the patient's disease. Two illustrative examples are presented, one comparing patients who suffer from an adverse event with contemporary patients who do not, and the other making use of a reference control group. We also illustrate two classification methods, LASSO and CART, for identifying patients at risk, but we stress that any appropriate classification method could be used in conjunction with the proposed utility function. Our emphasis is on determining the action to take rather than on providing definitive evidence of an association. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Increased apoptosis in first trimester extravillous trophoblasts from pregnancies at higher risk of developing preeclampsia

Preeclampsia complicates 5 to 10% of pregnancies and is a leading cause of maternal and fetal mortality and morbidity. Although the cause is unknown, inadequate invasion and remodeling of maternal uterine arteries by extravillous trophoblasts (EVTs) in the first trimester is a common feature. Uterine spiral artery resistance as detected by Doppler ultrasound is commonly used in the second trimester to identify pregnancies destined to develop preeclampsia. Correlation between high uterine resistance and the failure of trophoblast invasion has been reported as early as 12 weeks. However, the reason for this failure has not been established. Understanding the processes involved would significantly improve our diagnostic potential. In this study, we correlated increased first trimester uterine artery resistance with a biological abnormality in trophoblast function. EVTs derived from high-resistance pregnancies were more sensitive to apoptotic stimuli than those from normal-resistance pregnancies. Survival of EVTs from high-resistance pregnancies could be increased by nitric oxide, whereas inhibition of nitric oxide in cells from normal-resistance pregnancies increased apoptotic sensitivity. This predates the onset of symptoms by several weeks and provides evidence for a mechanism responsible for the incomplete uterine vessel remodeling and the differences in artery resistance between preeclamptic and normal pregnancies.

Assembling spatially explicit landscape models of pollen and spore dispersal by wind for risk assessment

Models of windblown pollen or spore movement are required to predict gene flow from genetically modified (GM) crops and the spread of fungal diseases. We suggest a simple form for a function describing the distance moved by a pollen grain or fungal spore, for use in generic models of dispersal. The function has power-law behaviour over sub-continental distances. We show that air-borne dispersal of rapeseed pollen in two experiments was inconsistent with an exponential model, but was fitted by power-law models, implying a large contribution from distant fields to the catches observed. After allowance for this 'background' by applying Fourier transforms to deconvolve the mixture of distant and local sources, the data were best fit by power-laws with exponents between 1.5 and 2. We also demonstrate that for a simple model of area sources, the median dispersal distance is a function of field radius and that measurement from the source edge can be misleading. Using an inverse-square dispersal distribution deduced from the experimental data and the distribution of rapeseed fields deduced by remote sensing, we successfully predict observed rapeseed pollen density in the city centres of Derby and Leicester (UK).

The role of polyphenolic compounds in the diet as inhibitors of platelet function

Platelets play a substantial role in cardiovascular disease, and for many years there has been a search for dietary components that are able to inhibit platelet function and therefore decrease the risk of cardiovascular disease. Platelets can be inhibited by alcohol, dietary fats and some antioxidants, including a group of compounds, the polyphenols, found in fruits and vegetables. A number of these compounds have been shown to inhibit platelet function both in vitro and in vivo. In the present study the effects of the hydroxycinnamates and the flavonoid quercetin on platelet activation and cell signalling in vitro were investigated. The hydroxycinnamates inhibited platelet function, although not at levels that can be achieved in human plasma by dietary intervention. However, quercetin inhibited platelet aggregation at levels lower than those previously reported. Quercetin was also found to inhibit intracellular Ca mobilisation and whole-cell tyrosine protein phosphorylation in platelets, which are both processes essential for platelet activation. The effect of polyphenols on platelet aggregation in vivo was also investigated. Twenty subjects followed a low-polyphenol diet for 3 d before and also during supplementation. All subjects were supplemented with a polyphenol-rich meal every lunchtime for 5 d. Platelet aggregation and plasma flavonols were measured at baseline and after 5 d of dietary supplementation. Total plasma flavonoids increased significantly after the dietary intervention period (P = 0.001). However, no significant changes in ex vivo platelet aggregation were observed. Further investigation of the effects of individual polyphenolic compounds on platelet function, both in vitro and in vivo, is required in order to elucidate their role in the relationship between diet and the risk of cardiovascular disease.

Dietary synbiotics reduce cancer risk factors in polypectomized and colon cancer patients

Background: Animal studies suggest that prebiotics and probiotics exert protective effects against tumor development in the colon, but human data supporting this suggestion are weak. Objective: The objective was to verify whether the prebiotic concept (selective interaction with colonic flora of nondigested carbohydrates) as induced by a synbiotic preparation-oligofructose-enriched inulin (SYN1) + Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (LGG) and Bifidobacterium lactis Bb12 (BB12)-is able to reduce the risk of colon cancer in humans. Design: The 12-wk randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of a synbiotic food composed of the prebiotic SYN1 and probiotics LGG and BB12 was conducted in 37 colon cancer patients and 43 polypectomized patients. Fecal and blood samples were obtained before, during, and after the intervention, and colorectal biopsy samples were obtained before and after the intervention. The effect of synbiotic consumption on a battery of intermediate biomarkers for colon cancer was examined. Results: Synbiotic intervention resulted in significant changes in fecal flora: Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus increased and Clostridium perfringens decreased. The intervention significantly reduced colorectal proliferation and the capacity of fecal water to induce necrosis in colonic cells and improve epithelial barrier function in polypectomized patients. Genotoxicity assays of colonic biopsy samples indicated a decreased exposure to genotoxins in polypectomized patients at the end of the intervention period. Synbiotic consumption prevented an increased secretion of interleukin 2 by peripheral blood mononuclear cells in the polypectomized patients and increased the production of interferon gamma in the cancer patients. Conclusions: Several colorectal cancer biomarkers can be altered favorably by synbiotic intervention.