Human exposure modelling for chemical risk assessment: a review of current approaches and research and policy implications

A wide variety of exposure models are currently employed for health risk assessments. Individual models have been developed to meet the chemical exposure assessment needs of Government, industry and academia. These existing exposure models can be broadly categorised according to the following types of exposure source: environmental, dietary, consumer product, occupational, and aggregate and cumulative. Aggregate exposure models consider multiple exposure pathways, while cumulative models consider multiple chemicals. In this paper each of these basic types of exposure model are briefly described, along with any inherent strengths or weaknesses, with the UK as a case study. Examples are given of specific exposure models that are currently used, or that have the potential for future use, and key differences in modelling approaches adopted are discussed. The use of exposure models is currently fragmentary in nature. Specific organisations with exposure assessment responsibilities tend to use a limited range of models. The modelling techniques adopted in current exposure models have evolved along distinct lines for the various types of source. In fact different organisations may be using different models for very similar exposure assessment situations. This lack of consistency between exposure modelling practices can make understanding the exposure assessment process more complex, can lead to inconsistency between organisations in how critical modelling issues are addressed (e.g. variability and uncertainty), and has the potential to communicate mixed messages to the general public. Further work should be conducted to integrate the various approaches and models, where possible and regulatory remits allow, to get a coherent and consistent exposure modelling process. We recommend the development of an overall framework for exposure and risk assessment with common approaches and methodology, a screening tool for exposure assessment, collection of better input data, probabilistic modelling, validation of model input and output and a closer working relationship between scientists and policy makers and staff from different Government departments. A much increased effort is required is required in the UK to address these issues. The result will be a more robust, transparent, valid and more comparable exposure and risk assessment process. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

N-nitroso compound exposure-associated transcriptomic profiles are indicative of an increased risk for colorectal cancer

Endogenous formation of N-nitroso compounds (NOCs), which are known animal carcinogens, could contribute to human carcinogenesis but definitive evidence is still lacking. To investigate the relevance of NOCs in human colorectal cancer (CRC) development, we analyzed whole genome gene expression modifications in human colon biopsies in relation to fecal NOC exposure. We had a particular interest in patients suffering from intestinal inflammation as this may stimulate endogenous NOC formation, and consequently predispose to CRC risk. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients diagnosed with ulcerative colitis and irritable bowel syndrome patients without inflammation, serving as controls, were therefore recruited. Fecal NOC were demonstrated in the majority of subjects. By associating gene expression levels of all subjects to fecal NOC levels, we identified a NOC exposure-associated transcriptomic response that suggests that physiological NOC concentrations may potentially induce genotoxic responses and chromatin modifications in human colon tissue, both of which are linked to carcinogenicity. In a network analysis, chromatin modifications were linked to 11 significantly modulated histone genes, pointing towards a possible epigenetic mechanism that may be relevant in comprehending NOC-induced carcinogenesis. In addition, pro-inflammatory transcriptomic modifications were identified in visually non-inflamed regions of the IBD colon. However, fecal NOC levels were slightly but not significantly increased in IBD patients, suggesting that inflammation did not strongly stimulate NOC formation. We conclude that NOC exposure is associated with gene expression modifications in the human colon that may suggest a potential role of these compounds in CRC development.

Very short delays prior to escape from potential predators may function efficiently as adaptive risk-assessment periods

Periods between predator detection and an escape response (escape delays) by prey upon attack by a predator often arise because animals trade-off the benefits such a delay gives for assessing risk accurately with the costs of not escaping as quickly as possible. We tested whether freezing behaviour (complete immobility in a previously foraging bird) observed in chaffinches before escaping from an approaching potential threat functions as a period of risk-assessment, and whether information on predator identity is gained even when time available is very short. We flew either a model of a sparrowhawk (predator) or a woodpigeon (no threat) at single chaffinches. Escape delays were significantly shorter with the hawk, except when a model first appeared close to the chaffinch. Chaffinches were significantly more vigilant when they resumed feeding after exposure to the sparrowhawk compared to the woodpigeon showing that they were able to distinguish between threats, and this applied even when time available for assessment was short (an average of 0.29 s). Our results show freezing in chaffinches functions as an effective economic risk assessment period, and that threat information is gained even when very short periods of time are available during an attack.

Spatial and management factors associated with exposure of smallholder dairy cattle in Tanzania to tick-borne pathogens

A cross-sectional study of serum antibody responses of cattle to tick-borne pathogens (Theileria parva, Theileria mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Babesia bovis) was conducted on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania. Seroprevalence was highest for T. parva (48% in Iringa and 23% in Tanga) and B. bigemina (43% in Iringa and 27% in Tanga) and lowest for B. bovis (12% in Iringa and 6% in Tanga). We use spatial and non-spatial models, fitted using classical and Bayesian methods, to explore risk factors associated with seroprevalence. These include both fixed effects (age, grazing history and breeding status) and random effects (farm and local spatial effects). In both regions, seroprevalence for all tick-borne pathogens increased significantly with age. Animals pasture grazed in the 3 months prior to the start of the sampling period were significantly more likely to be seropositive for Theileria spp. and Babesia spp. Pasture grazed animals were more likely to be seropositive than zero-grazed animals for A. marginale, but the relationship was weaker than that observed for the other four pathogens. This study did not detect any significant differences in seroprevalence associated with other management-related variables, including the method or frequency of acaricide application. After adjusting for age, there was weak evidence of localised (< 5 km) spatial correlation in exposure to some of the tick borne diseases. However, this was small compared with the 'farm-effect', suggesting that risk factors specific to the farm were more important than those common to the local neighbourhood. Many animals were seropositive for more than one pathogen and the correlation between exposure to the different pathogens remained after adjusting for the identified risk factors. Identifying the determinants of exposure to multiple tick-borne pathogens and characterizing local variation in risk will assist in the development of more effective control strategies for smallholder dairy farms. (c) 2005 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 European case-control studies

Objective: To determine the risk of lung cancer associated with exposure at home to the radioactive disintegration products of naturally Occurring radon gas. Design: Collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 case-control studies of residential radon and lung cancer. Setting Nine European countries. Subjects 7148 cases Of lung cancer and 14 208 controls. Main outcome measures: Relative risks of lung cancer and radon gas concentrations in homes inhabited during the previous 5-34 years measured in becquerels (radon disintegrations per second) per cubic incite (Bq/m(3)) Of household air. Results: The mean measured radon concentration in homes of people in tire control group was 97 Bq/m(3), with 11% measuring > 200 and 4% measuring > 400 Bq/m(3). For cases of lung cancer the mean concentration was 104 Bq/m(3). The risk of lung cancer increased by 8.4% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 15.8%) per 100 Bq/m(3) increase in measured radon (P = 0.0007). This corresponds to an increase of 16% (5% to 31%) per 100 Bq/m(3) increase in usual radon-that is, after correction for the dilution caused by random uncertainties in measuring radon concentrations. The dose-response relation seemed to be linear with no threshold and remained significant (P=0.04) in analyses limited to individuals from homes with measured radon < 200 Bq/m(3). The proportionate excess risk did not differ significantly with study, age, sex, or smoking. In the absence of other causes of death, the absolute risks of lung cancer by age 75 years at usual radon concentrations of 0, 100, and 400 Bq/m(3) would be about 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.7%, respectively, for lifelong non-smokers, and about 25 times greater (10%, 12%, and 16%) for cigarette smokers. Conclusions: Collectively, though not separately, these studies show appreciable hazards from residential radon, particularly for smokers and recent ex-smokers, and indicate that it is responsible for about 2% of all deaths from cancer in Europe.

Repeated challenge with prion disease: The risk of infection and impact on incubation period

Natural exposure to prion disease is likely to occur throughout successive challenges, yet most experiments focus on single large doses of infectious material. We analyze the results from an experiment in which rodents were exposed to multiple doses of feed contaminated with the scrapie agent. We formally define hypotheses for how the doses combine in terms of statistical models. The competing hypotheses are that only the total dose of infectivity is important (cumulative model), doses act independently, or a general alternative that interaction between successive doses occurs (to raise or lower the risk of infection). We provide sample size calculations to distinguish these hypotheses. In the experiment, a fixed total dose has a significantly reduced probability of causing infection if the material is presented as multiple challenges, and as the time between challenges lengthens. Incubation periods are shorter and less variable if all material is consumed on one occasion. We show that the probability of infection is inconsistent with the hypothesis that each dose acts as a cumulative or independent challenge. The incubation periods are inconsistent with the independence hypothesis. Thus, although a trend exists for the risk of infection with prion disease to increase with repeated doses, it does so to a lesser degree than is expected if challenges combine independently or in a cumulative manner.

Dietary synbiotics reduce cancer risk factors in polypectomized and colon cancer patients

Background: Animal studies suggest that prebiotics and probiotics exert protective effects against tumor development in the colon, but human data supporting this suggestion are weak. Objective: The objective was to verify whether the prebiotic concept (selective interaction with colonic flora of nondigested carbohydrates) as induced by a synbiotic preparation-oligofructose-enriched inulin (SYN1) + Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (LGG) and Bifidobacterium lactis Bb12 (BB12)-is able to reduce the risk of colon cancer in humans. Design: The 12-wk randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of a synbiotic food composed of the prebiotic SYN1 and probiotics LGG and BB12 was conducted in 37 colon cancer patients and 43 polypectomized patients. Fecal and blood samples were obtained before, during, and after the intervention, and colorectal biopsy samples were obtained before and after the intervention. The effect of synbiotic consumption on a battery of intermediate biomarkers for colon cancer was examined. Results: Synbiotic intervention resulted in significant changes in fecal flora: Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus increased and Clostridium perfringens decreased. The intervention significantly reduced colorectal proliferation and the capacity of fecal water to induce necrosis in colonic cells and improve epithelial barrier function in polypectomized patients. Genotoxicity assays of colonic biopsy samples indicated a decreased exposure to genotoxins in polypectomized patients at the end of the intervention period. Synbiotic consumption prevented an increased secretion of interleukin 2 by peripheral blood mononuclear cells in the polypectomized patients and increased the production of interferon gamma in the cancer patients. Conclusions: Several colorectal cancer biomarkers can be altered favorably by synbiotic intervention.

The effects of pre- and postnatal depression in fathers: a natural experiment comparing the effects of exposure to depression on offspring

Background: Depression in fathers in the postnatal period is associated with an increased risk of behavioural problems in their offspring, particularly for boys. The aim of this study was to examine for differential effects of depression in fathers on children's subsequent psychological functioning via a natural experiment comparing prenatal and postnatal exposure. Methods:In a longitudinal population cohort study (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)) we examined the associations between depression in fathers measured in the prenatal and postnatal period (measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale), and later behavioural/emotional and psychiatric problems in their children, assessed at ages 31/2 and 7 years. Results: Children whose fathers were depressed in both the prenatal and postnatal periods had the highest risks of subsequent psychopathology, measured by total problems at age 31/2 years (Odds Ratio 3.55; 95% confidence interval 2.07, 6.08) and psychiatric diagnosis at age 7 years (OR 2.54; 1.19, 5.41). Few differences emerged when prenatal and postnatal depression exposure were directly compared, but when compared to fathers who were not depressed, boys whose fathers had postnatal depression only had higher rates of conduct problems aged 31/2 years (OR 2.14; 1.22, 3.72) whereas sons of the prenatal group did not (OR 1.41; .75, 2.65). These associations changed little when controlling for maternal depression and other potential confounding factors. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that the increased risk of later conduct problems, seen particularly in the sons of depressed fathers, maybe partly mediated through environmental means. In addition, children whose fathers are more chronically depressed appear to be at a higher risk of emotional and behavioural problems. Efforts to identify the precise mechanisms by which transmission of risk may occur should be encouraged to enable the development of focused interventions to mitigate risks for young children.

Socioemotional development in adolescents at risk for depression: the role of maternal depression and attachment style

We examined the impact on adolescent socioemotional functioning of maternal postnatal depression (PND) and attachment style. We also investigated the role of earlier aspects of the child's development-attachment in infancy, and 5-year representations of family relationships. Ninety-one mother-child pairs, recruited in the postnatal period, were followed tip at 13 years. Adolescents were interviewed about their friendships, and their level of emotional sensitivity and maturity were rated. Emotional sensitivity was heightened in girls whose mothers experienced PND; notably, its occurrence was also linked to insecure attachment in infancy and raised awareness of emotional components of family relationships at 5 years. High emotional sensitivity was also associated with adolescent depressed mood. Raised social maturity was predicted by a secure maternal attachment style and, for girls, by exposure to maternal PND. Precursors of adolescent social maturity were evident in the narrative coherence of 5-year family representations. Higher social maturity in the friendship interview was also associated with overall good adjustment.

Exposure to postnatal depression predicts elevated cortisol in adolescent offspring

Background. Animal research shows that early adverse experience results in altered glucocorticoid levels in adulthood, either raised basal levels or accentuated responses to stress. If a similar phenomenon operates in humans, this suggests a biological mechanism whereby early adversity might transmit risk for major depression, glucocorticoid elevations being associated with the development of this disorder. Methods. We measured salivary cortisol at 8:00 Am and 8:00 Pm over 10 days in 13-year-old adolescents who had (n = 48) or bad not (n = 39) been exposed to postnatal maternal depression. Results: Maternal postnatal depression was associated with higher, more variable morning cortisol in offspring, a pattern previously found to predict major depression. Conclusions. Early adverse experiences might alter later steroid levels in humans. Because maternal depression confers added risk for depression to children, these alterations might provide a link between early events and later psychopathology.

Gene transcription in Daphnia magna: effects of acute exposure to a carbamate insecticide and an acetanilide herbicide.

Daphnia magna is a key invertebrate in the freshwater environment and is used widely as a model in ecotoxicological measurements and risk assessment. Understanding the genomic responses of D. magna to chemical challenges will be of value to regulatory authorities worldwide. Here we exposed D. magna to the insecticide methomyl and the herbicide propanil to compare phenotypic effects with changes in mRNA expression levels. Both pesticides are found in drainage ditches and surface water bodies standing adjacent to crops. Methomyl, a carbamate insecticide widely used in agriculture, inhibits acetylcholinesterase, a key enzyme in nerve transmission. Propanil, an acetanilide herbicide, is used to control grass and broad-leaf weeds. The phenotypic effects of single doses of each chemical were evaluated using a standard immobilisation assay. Immobilisation was linked to global mRNA expression levels using the previously estimated 48h-EC(1)s, followed by hybridization to a cDNA microarray with more than 13,000 redundant cDNA clones representing >5000 unique genes. Following exposure to methomyl and propanil, differential expression was found for 624 and 551 cDNAs, respectively (one-way ANOVA with Bonferroni correction, P

The price of risk in construction projects: contingency approximation model (CAM)

Little attention has been focussed on a precise definition and evaluation mechanism for project management risk specifically related to contractors. When bidding, contractors traditionally price risks using unsystematic approaches. The high business failure rate our industry records may indicate that the current unsystematic mechanisms contractors use for building up contingencies may be inadequate. The reluctance of some contractors to include a price for risk in their tenders when bidding for work competitively may also not be a useful approach. Here, instead, we first define the meaning of contractor contingency, and then we develop a facile quantitative technique that contractors can use to estimate a price for project risk. This model will help contractors analyse their exposure to project risks; and help them express the risk in monetary terms for management action. When bidding for work, they can decide how to allocate contingencies strategically in a way that balances risk and reward.

Exposure to environmental oestrogenic chemicals and breast cancer.

The human population is now exposed on a daily basis to a multitude of environmental pollutant chemicals that would not have been present a century ago, and many of these chemicals have been detected in the human breast. The fatty nature of human breast tissue makes it a particular target for lipophilic as well as hydrophilic pollutant chemicals, which may enter the human body through oral, respiratory, or dermal routes. These chemicals possess a range of endocrine-disrupting properties and genotoxic activity, but from a breast cancer perspective the greatest concern has centered around their ability to mimic or interfere with the action of estrogen. The breast is an endocrine target organ and exposure to estrogen is a known risk factor for breast cancer.

A value chain approach to animal diseases risk management: technical foundations and practical framework for field application

Classical risk assessment approaches for animal diseases are influenced by the probability of release, exposure and consequences of a hazard affecting a livestock population. Once a pathogen enters into domestic livestock, potential risks of exposure and infection both to animals and people extend through a chain of economic activities related to producing, buying and selling of animals and products. Therefore, in order to understand economic drivers of animal diseases in different ecosystems and to come up with effective and efficient measures to manage disease risks from a country or region, the entire value chain and related markets for animal and product needs to be analysed to come out with practical and cost effective risk management options agreed by actors and players on those value chains. Value chain analysis enriches disease risk assessment providing a framework for interdisciplinary collaboration, which seems to be in increasing demand for problems concerning infectious livestock diseases. The best way to achieve this is to ensure that veterinary epidemiologists and social scientists work together throughout the process at all levels.