Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

Land use for England and Wales: evaluation of management options to support 'good ecological status' in surface freshwaters

This paper analyses historic records of agricultural land use and management for England and Wales from 1931 and 1991 and uses export coefficient modelling to hindcast the impact of these practices on the rates of diffuse nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export to water bodies for each of the major geo-climatic regions of England and Wales. Key trends indicate the importance of animal agriculture as a contributor to the total diffuse agricultural nutrient loading on waters, and the need to bring these sources under control if conditions suitable for sustaining 'Good Ecological Status' under the Water Framework Directive are to be generated. The analysis highlights the importance of measuring changes in nutrient loading in relation to the catchment-specific baseline state for different water bodies. The approach is also used to forecast the likely impact of broad regional scale scenarios on nutrient export to waters and highlights the need to take sensitive land out of production, introduce ceilings on fertilizer use and stocking densities, and controls on agricultural practice in higher risk areas where intensive agriculture is combined with a low intrinsic nutrient retention capacity, although the uncertainties associated with the modelling applied at this scale should be taken into account in the interpretation of model output. The paper advocates the need for a two-tiered approach to nutrient management, combining broad regional policies with targeted management in high risk areas at the catchment and farm scale.

The risk-taking and self-harm inventory for adolescents: Development and psychometric evaluation

In this study, we report on the development and psychometric evaluation of the Risk-Taking (RT) and Self-Harm (SH) Inventory for Adolescents (RTSHIA), a self-report measure designed to assess adolescent RT and SH in community and clinical settings. 651 young people from secondary schools in England ranging in age from 11.6 years to 18.7 years and 71 young people referred to mental health services for SH behavior in London between the ages of 11.9 years and 17.5 years completed the RTSHIA along with standardized measures of adolescent psychopathology. Two factors emerged from the principal axis factoring, and RT and SH were further validated by a confirmatory factor analysis as related, but different, constructs, rather than elements of a single continuum. Inter-item and test–retest reliabilities were high for both components (Cronbach's α = .85, rtt = .90; Cronbach's α .93, rtt = .87), and considerable evidence emerged in support of the measure's convergent, concurrent, and divergent validity. The findings are discussed with regard to potential usefulness of the RTSHIA for research and clinical purposes with adolescents.

A data collection case study supporting requirements oriented prediction and management in software developments

Consider the statement "this project should cost X and has risk of Y". Such statements are used daily in industry as the basis for making decisions. The work reported here is part of a study aimed at providing a rational and pragmatic basis for such statements. Of particular interest are predictions made in the requirements and early phases of projects. A preliminary model has been constructed using Bayesian Belief Networks and in support of this, a programme to collect and study data during the execution of various software development projects commenced in May 2002. The data collection programme is undertaken under the constraints of a commercial industrial regime of multiple concurrent small to medium scale software development projects. Guided by pragmatism, the work is predicated on the use of data that can be collected readily by project managers; including expert judgements, effort, elapsed times and metrics collected within each project.

Clinical and subclinical mastitis in smallholder dairy farms in Tanzania: Risk, intervention and knowledge transfer

In a cross-sectional study of 400 randomly selected smallholder dairy farms in the Tanga and Iringa regions of Tanzania, 14.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 11.6-17.3) of cows had developed clinical mastitis during the previous year. The point prevalence of subclinical mastitis, defined as a quarter positive by the California Mastitis Test (CMT) or by bacteriological culture, was 46.2% (95% Cl = 43.6-48.8) and 24.3% (95% Cl = 22.2-26.6), respectively. In a longitudinal disease study in Iringa, the incidence of clinical mastitis was 31.7 cases per 100 cow-years. A randomised intervention trial indicated that intramammary antibiotics significantly reduced the proportion of bacteriologically positive quarters in the short-term (14 days post-infusion) but teat dipping had no detectable effect on bacteriological infection and CMT positive quarters. Other risk and protective factors were identified from both the cross-sectional and longitudinal included animals with Boran breeding (odds ratio (OR) = 3,40, 95% CI = 1.00-11.57, P < 0.05 for clinical mastitis, and OR = 3.51, 95% CI = 1.299.55, P < 0.01 for a CMT positive quarter), while the practice of residual calf suckling was protective for a bacteriologically positive quarter (OR = 0.63, 95% Cl = 0.48-0.81, P <= 0.001) and for a CMT positive quarter (OR = 0.69, 95% Cl = 0.63-0.75, P < 0.001). A mastitis training course for farmers and extension officers was held, and the knowledge gained and use of different methods of dissemination were assessed over time. In a subsequent randomised controlled trial, there were strong associations between knowledge gained and both the individual question asked and the combination of dissemination methods (village meeting, video and handout) used. This study demonstrated that both clinical and subclinical mastitis is common in smallholder dairying in Tanzania, and that some of the risk and protective factors for mastitis can be addressed by practical management of dairy cows following effective knowledge transfer. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical and subclinical mastitis in smallholder dairy farms in Tanzania: Risk, intervention and knowledge transfer

In a cross-sectional study of 400 randomly selected smallholder dairy farms in the Tanga and Iringa regions of Tanzania, 14.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 11.6-17.3) of cows had developed clinical mastitis during the previous year. The point prevalence of subclinical mastitis, defined as a quarter positive by the California Mastitis Test (CMT) or by bacteriological culture, was 46.2% (95% Cl = 43.6-48.8) and 24.3% (95% Cl = 22.2-26.6), respectively. In a longitudinal disease study in Iringa, the incidence of clinical mastitis was 31.7 cases per 100 cow-years. A randomised intervention trial indicated that intramammary antibiotics significantly reduced the proportion of bacteriologically positive quarters in the short-term (14 days post-infusion) but teat dipping had no detectable effect on bacteriological infection and CMT positive quarters. Other risk and protective factors were identified from both the cross-sectional and longitudinal included animals with Boran breeding (odds ratio (OR) = 3,40, 95% CI = 1.00-11.57, P < 0.05 for clinical mastitis, and OR = 3.51, 95% CI = 1.299.55, P < 0.01 for a CMT positive quarter), while the practice of residual calf suckling was protective for a bacteriologically positive quarter (OR = 0.63, 95% Cl = 0.48-0.81, P <= 0.001) and for a CMT positive quarter (OR = 0.69, 95% Cl = 0.63-0.75, P < 0.001). A mastitis training course for farmers and extension officers was held, and the knowledge gained and use of different methods of dissemination were assessed over time. In a subsequent randomised controlled trial, there were strong associations between knowledge gained and both the individual question asked and the combination of dissemination methods (village meeting, video and handout) used. This study demonstrated that both clinical and subclinical mastitis is common in smallholder dairying in Tanzania, and that some of the risk and protective factors for mastitis can be addressed by practical management of dairy cows following effective knowledge transfer. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and management factors associated with exposure of smallholder dairy cattle in Tanzania to tick-borne pathogens

A cross-sectional study of serum antibody responses of cattle to tick-borne pathogens (Theileria parva, Theileria mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Babesia bovis) was conducted on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania. Seroprevalence was highest for T. parva (48% in Iringa and 23% in Tanga) and B. bigemina (43% in Iringa and 27% in Tanga) and lowest for B. bovis (12% in Iringa and 6% in Tanga). We use spatial and non-spatial models, fitted using classical and Bayesian methods, to explore risk factors associated with seroprevalence. These include both fixed effects (age, grazing history and breeding status) and random effects (farm and local spatial effects). In both regions, seroprevalence for all tick-borne pathogens increased significantly with age. Animals pasture grazed in the 3 months prior to the start of the sampling period were significantly more likely to be seropositive for Theileria spp. and Babesia spp. Pasture grazed animals were more likely to be seropositive than zero-grazed animals for A. marginale, but the relationship was weaker than that observed for the other four pathogens. This study did not detect any significant differences in seroprevalence associated with other management-related variables, including the method or frequency of acaricide application. After adjusting for age, there was weak evidence of localised (< 5 km) spatial correlation in exposure to some of the tick borne diseases. However, this was small compared with the 'farm-effect', suggesting that risk factors specific to the farm were more important than those common to the local neighbourhood. Many animals were seropositive for more than one pathogen and the correlation between exposure to the different pathogens remained after adjusting for the identified risk factors. Identifying the determinants of exposure to multiple tick-borne pathogens and characterizing local variation in risk will assist in the development of more effective control strategies for smallholder dairy farms. (c) 2005 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gene flow, risk assessment and the environmental release of transgenic plants

The release of genetically modified plants is governed by regulations that aim to provide an assessment of potential impact on the environment. One of the most important components of this risk assessment is an evaluation of the probability of gene flow. In this review, we provide an overview of the current literature on gene flow from transgenic plants, providing a framework of issues for those considering the release of a transgenic plant into the environment. For some plants gene flow from transgenic crops is well documented, and this information is discussed in detail in this review. Mechanisms of gene flow vary from plant species to plant species and range from the possibility of asexual propagation, short- or long-distance pollen dispersal mediated by insects or wind and seed dispersal. Volunteer populations of transgenic plants may occur where seed is inadvertently spread during harvest or commercial distribution. If there are wild populations related to the transgenic crop then hybridization and eventually introgression in the wild may occur, as it has for herbicide resistant transgenic oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Tools to measure the amount of gene flow, experimental data measuring the distance of pollen dispersal, and experiments measuring hybridization and seed survivability are discussed in this review. The various methods that have been proposed to prevent gene flow from genetically modified plants are also described. The current "transgenic traits'! in the major crops confer resistance to herbicides and certain insects. Such traits could confer a selective advantage (an increase in fitness) in wild plant populations in some circumstances, were gene flow to occur. However, there is ample evidence that gene flow from crops to related wild species occurred before the development of transgenic crops and this should be taken into account in the risk assessment process.

An experimental approach to project risk identification and prioritization

One of the aims of a broad ethnographic study into how the apportionment of risk influences pricing levels of contactors was to ascertain the significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana, and their impact on prices. To do this, in the context of contractors, the difference between expected and realized return on a project is the key dependent variable examined using documentary analyses and semi-structured interviews. Most work in this has focused on identifying and prioritising risks using relative importance indices generated from the analysis of questionnaire survey responses. However, this approach may be argued to constitute perceptions rather than direct measures of the project risk. Here, instead, project risk is investigated by examining two measures of the same quantity; one ‘before’ and one ‘after’ construction of a project has taken place. Risks events are identified by ascertaining the independent variables causing deviations between expected and actual rates of return. Risk impact is then measured by ascertaining additions or reductions to expected costs due to the occurrence of risk events. So far, data from eight substantially complete building projects indicates that consultants’ inefficiency, payment delays, subcontractor-related problems and changes in macroeconomic factors are significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana.

Interventions to promote healthy eating habits: evaluation and recommendations

Although in several EU Member States many public interventions have been running for the prevention and/or management of obesity and other nutrition-related health conditions, few have yet been formally evaluated. The multidisciplinary team of the EATWELL project will gather benchmark data on healthy eating interventions in EU Member States and review existing information on the effectiveness of interventions using a three-stage procedure (i) Assessment of the intervention's impact on consumer attitudes, consumer behaviour and diets; (ii) The impact of the change in diets on obesity and health and (iii) The value attached by society to these changes, measured in life years gained, cost savings and quality-adjusted life years. Where evaluations have been inadequate, EATWELL will gather secondary data and analyse them with a multidisciplinary approach incorporating models from the psychology and economics disciplines. Particular attention will be paid to lessons that can be learned from private sector that are transferable to the healthy eating campaigns in the public sector. Through consumer surveys and workshops with other stakeholders, EATWELL will assess the acceptability of the range of potential interventions. Armed with scientific quantitative evaluations of policy interventions and their acceptability to stakeholders, EATWELL expects to recommend more appropriate interventions for Member States and the EU, providing a one-stop guide to methods and measures in interventions evaluation, and outline data collection priorities for the future.

Risk reduction and real estate portfolio size

Despite a number of papers that discuss the advantages of increased size on risk levels in real estate portfolios there is remarkably little empirical evidence based on actual portfolios. The objective of this paper is to remedy this deficiency by examining the portfolio risk of a large sample of actual property data over the period 1981 to 1996. The results show that all that can be said is that portfolios of properties of a large size, on the average, tend to have lower risks than small sized portfolios. More importantly portfolios of a few properties can have very high or very low risk.

Design and management of sustainable built environments

The United Nation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes it clear that climate change is due to human activities and it recognises buildings as a distinct sector among the seven analysed in its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report. Global concerns have escalated regarding carbon emissions and sustainability in the built environment. The built environment is a human-made setting to accommodate human activities, including building and transport, which covers an interdisciplinary field addressing design, construction, operation and management. Specifically, Sustainable Buildings are expected to achieve high performance throughout the life-cycle of siting, design, construction, operation, maintenance and demolition, in the following areas: • energy and resource efficiency; • cost effectiveness; • minimisation of emissions that negatively impact global warming, indoor air quality and acid rain; • minimisation of waste discharges; and • maximisation of fulfilling the requirements of occupants’ health and wellbeing. Professionals in the built environment sector, for example, urban planners, architects, building scientists, engineers, facilities managers, performance assessors and policy makers, will play a significant role in delivering a sustainable built environment. Delivering a sustainable built environment needs an integrated approach and so it is essential for built environment professionals to have interdisciplinary knowledge in building design and management . Building and urban designers need to have a good understanding of the planning, design and management of the buildings in terms of low carbon and energy efficiency. There are a limited number of traditional engineers who know how to design environmental systems (services engineer) in great detail. Yet there is a very large market for technologists with multi-disciplinary skills who are able to identify the need for, envision and manage the deployment of a wide range of sustainable technologies, both passive (architectural) and active (engineering system),, and select the appropriate approach. Employers seek applicants with skills in analysis, decision-making/assessment, computer simulation and project implementation. An integrated approach is expected in practice, which encourages built environment professionals to think ‘out of the box’ and learn to analyse real problems using the most relevant approach, irrespective of discipline. The Design and Management of Sustainable Built Environment book aims to produce readers able to apply fundamental scientific research to solve real-world problems in the general area of sustainability in the built environment. The book contains twenty chapters covering climate change and sustainability, urban design and assessment (planning, travel systems, urban environment), urban management (drainage and waste), buildings (indoor environment, architectural design and renewable energy), simulation techniques (energy and airflow), management (end-user behaviour, facilities and information), assessment (materials and tools), procurement, and cases studies ( BRE Science Park). Chapters one and two present general global issues of climate change and sustainability in the built environment. Chapter one illustrates that applying the concepts of sustainability to the urban environment (buildings, infrastructure, transport) raises some key issues for tackling climate change, resource depletion and energy supply. Buildings, and the way we operate them, play a vital role in tackling global greenhouse gas emissions. Holistic thinking and an integrated approach in delivering a sustainable built environment is highlighted. Chapter two demonstrates the important role that buildings (their services and appliances) and building energy policies play in this area. Substantial investment is required to implement such policies, much of which will earn a good return. Chapters three and four discuss urban planning and transport. Chapter three stresses the importance of using modelling techniques at the early stage for strategic master-planning of a new development and a retrofit programme. A general framework for sustainable urban-scale master planning is introduced. This chapter also addressed the needs for the development of a more holistic and pragmatic view of how the built environment performs, , in order to produce tools to help design for a higher level of sustainability and, in particular, how people plan, design and use it. Chapter four discusses microcirculation, which is an emerging and challenging area which relates to changing travel behaviour in the quest for urban sustainability. The chapter outlines the main drivers for travel behaviour and choices, the workings of the transport system and its interaction with urban land use. It also covers the new approach to managing urban traffic to maximise economic, social and environmental benefits. Chapters five and six present topics related to urban microclimates including thermal and acoustic issues. Chapter five discusses urban microclimates and urban heat island, as well as the interrelationship of urban design (urban forms and textures) with energy consumption and urban thermal comfort. It introduces models that can be used to analyse microclimates for a careful and considered approach for planning sustainable cities. Chapter six discusses urban acoustics, focusing on urban noise evaluation and mitigation. Various prediction and simulation methods for sound propagation in micro-scale urban areas, as well as techniques for large scale urban noise-mapping, are presented. Chapters seven and eight discuss urban drainage and waste management. The growing demand for housing and commercial developments in the 21st century, as well as the environmental pressure caused by climate change, has increased the focus on sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS). Chapter seven discusses the SUDS concept which is an integrated approach to surface water management. It takes into consideration quality, quantity and amenity aspects to provide a more pleasant habitat for people as well as increasing the biodiversity value of the local environment. Chapter eight discusses the main issues in urban waste management. It points out that population increases, land use pressures, technical and socio-economic influences have become inextricably interwoven and how ensuring a safe means of dealing with humanity’s waste becomes more challenging. Sustainable building design needs to consider healthy indoor environments, minimising energy for heating, cooling and lighting, and maximising the utilisation of renewable energy. Chapter nine considers how people respond to the physical environment and how that is used in the design of indoor environments. It considers environmental components such as thermal, acoustic, visual, air quality and vibration and their interaction and integration. Chapter ten introduces the concept of passive building design and its relevant strategies, including passive solar heating, shading, natural ventilation, daylighting and thermal mass, in order to minimise heating and cooling load as well as energy consumption for artificial lighting. Chapter eleven discusses the growing importance of integrating Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) into buildings, the range of technologies currently available and what to consider during technology selection processes in order to minimise carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels. The chapter draws to a close by highlighting the issues concerning system design and the need for careful integration and management of RETs once installed; and for home owners and operators to understand the characteristics of the technology in their building. Computer simulation tools play a significant role in sustainable building design because, as the modern built environment design (building and systems) becomes more complex, it requires tools to assist in the design process. Chapter twelve gives an overview of the primary benefits and users of simulation programs, the role of simulation in the construction process and examines the validity and interpretation of simulation results. Chapter thirteen particularly focuses on the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation method used for optimisation and performance assessment of technologies and solutions for sustainable building design and its application through a series of cases studies. People and building performance are intimately linked. A better understanding of occupants’ interaction with the indoor environment is essential to building energy and facilities management. Chapter fourteen focuses on the issue of occupant behaviour; principally, its impact, and the influence of building performance on them. Chapter fifteen explores the discipline of facilities management and the contribution that this emerging profession makes to securing sustainable building performance. The chapter highlights a much greater diversity of opportunities in sustainable building design that extends well into the operational life. Chapter sixteen reviews the concepts of modelling information flows and the use of Building Information Modelling (BIM), describing these techniques and how these aspects of information management can help drive sustainability. An explanation is offered concerning why information management is the key to ‘life-cycle’ thinking in sustainable building and construction. Measurement of building performance and sustainability is a key issue in delivering a sustainable built environment. Chapter seventeen identifies the means by which construction materials can be evaluated with respect to their sustainability. It identifies the key issues that impact the sustainability of construction materials and the methodologies commonly used to assess them. Chapter eighteen focuses on the topics of green building assessment, green building materials, sustainable construction and operation. Commonly-used assessment tools such as BRE Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM), Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design ( LEED) and others are introduced. Chapter nineteen discusses sustainable procurement which is one of the areas to have naturally emerged from the overall sustainable development agenda. It aims to ensure that current use of resources does not compromise the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Chapter twenty is a best-practice exemplar - the BRE Innovation Park which features a number of demonstration buildings that have been built to the UK Government’s Code for Sustainable Homes. It showcases the very latest innovative methods of construction, and cutting edge technology for sustainable buildings. In summary, Design and Management of Sustainable Built Environment book is the result of co-operation and dedication of individual chapter authors. We hope readers benefit from gaining a broad interdisciplinary knowledge of design and management in the built environment in the context of sustainability. We believe that the knowledge and insights of our academics and professional colleagues from different institutions and disciplines illuminate a way of delivering sustainable built environment through holistic integrated design and management approaches. Last, but not least, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all the chapter authors for their contribution. I would like to thank David Lim for his assistance in the editorial work and proofreading.

Empirical test of an agricultural landscape model: the importance of farmer preference for risk aversion and crop complexity

Developing models to predict the effects of social and economic change on agricultural landscapes is an important challenge. Model development often involves making decisions about which aspects of the system require detailed description and which are reasonably insensitive to the assumptions. However, important components of the system are often left out because parameter estimates are unavailable. In particular, measurements of the relative influence of different objectives, such as risk, environmental management, on farmer decision making, have proven difficult to quantify. We describe a model that can make predictions of land use on the basis of profit alone or with the inclusion of explicit additional objectives. Importantly, our model is specifically designed to use parameter estimates for additional objectives obtained via farmer interviews. By statistically comparing the outputs of this model with a large farm-level land-use data set, we show that cropping patterns in the United Kingdom contain a significant contribution from farmer’s preference for objectives other than profit. In particular, we found that risk aversion had an effect on the accuracy of model predictions, whereas preference for a particular number of crops grown was less important. While nonprofit objectives have frequently been identified as factors in farmers’ decision making, our results take this analysis further by demonstrating the relationship between these preferences and actual cropping patterns.

The mediating effect of environmental and ethical behaviour on supply chain partnership decisions and management appreciation of supplier partnership risks

Green supply chain management and environmental and ethical behaviour (EEB), a major component of corporate responsibility (CR), are rapidly developing fields in research and practice. The influence and effect of EEB at the functional level, however, is under-researched. Similarly, the management of risk in the supply chain has become a practical concern for many firms. It is important that managers have a good understanding of the risks associated with supplier partnerships. This paper examines the effect of firms’ investment in EEB as part of corporate social responsibility in mediating the relationship between supply chain partnership (SCP) and management appreciation of the risk of partnering. We hypothesise that simply entering into a SCP does not facilitate an appreciation of the risk of partnering and may even hamper such awareness. However, such an appreciation of the risk is facilitated through CR’s environmental and stakeholder management ethos. The study contributes further by separating risk into distinct relational and performance components. The results of a firm-level survey confirm the mediation effect, highlighting the value to supply chain strategy and design of investing in EEB on three fronts: building internal awareness, monitoring and sharing best practice.