US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968-2010

Recent literature has suggested that macroeconomic forecasters may have asymmetric loss functions, and that there may be heterogeneity across forecasters in the degree to which they weigh under- and over-predictions. Using an individual-level analysis that exploits the Survey of Professional Forecasters respondents’ histogram forecasts, we find little evidence of asymmetric loss for the inflation forecasters

ApoE genotype, cardiovascular risk and responsiveness to dietary fat manipulation

Cardiovascular risk is determined by the complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors. The apoE genotype represents the most-widely-studied single nucleotide polymorphism in relation to CVD risk, with >3600 publications cited in PubMed. Although originally described as a mediator of lipoprotein metabolism, the lipoprotein-independent functions of apoE are being increasingly recognised, with limited data available on the potential impact of genotype on these metabolic processes. Furthermore, although meta-analyses suggest that apoE4 carriers may have a 40-50% increased CVD risk, the associations reported in individual studies are highly heterogeneous and it is recognised that environmental factors such as smoking status and dietary fat composition influence genotype-phenotype associations. However, information is often derived from observational studies or small intervention trials in which retrospective genotyping of the cohort results in small group sizes in the rarer E2 and E4 subgroups. Either larger well-standardised intervention trials or smaller trials with prospective recruitment according to apoE genotype are needed to fully establish the impact of diet on genotype-CVD associations and to establish the potential of dietary strategies such as reduced total fat, saturated fat, or increased antioxidant intakes to counteract the increased CVD burden in apoE4 carriers.

Effect of polydextrose on intestinal microbes and immune functions in pigs

Dietary fibre has been proposed to decrease risk for colon cancer by altering the composition of intestinal microbes or their activity. In the present study, the changes in intestinal microbiota and its activity, and immunological characteristics, such as cyclo-oxygenase (COX)-2 gene expression in mucosa, in pigs fed with a high-energy-density diet, with and without supplementation of a soluble fibre (polydextrose; PDX) (30 g/d) were assessed in different intestinal compartments. PDX was gradually fermented throughout the intestine, and was still present in the distal colon. Irrespective of the diet throughout the intestine, of the four microbial groups determined by fluorescent in situ hybridisation, lactobacilli were found to be dominating, followed by clostridia and Bacteroides. Bifidobacteria represented a minority of the total intestinal microbiota. The numbers of bacteria increased approximately ten-fold from the distal small intestine to the distal colon. Concomitantly, also concentrations of SCFA and biogenic amines increased in the large intestine. In contrast, concentrations of luminal IgA decreased distally but the expression of mucosal COX-2 had a tendency to increase in the mucosa towards the distal colon. Addition of PDX to the diet significantly changed the fermentation endproducts, especially in the distal colon, whereas effects on bacteria] composition were rather minor. There was a reduction in concentrations of SCFA and tryptamine, and an increase in concentrations of spermidine in the colon upon PDX supplementation. Furthermore, PDX tended to decrease the expression of mucosal COX-2, therefore possibly reducing the risk of developing colon cancer-promoting conditions in the distal intestine.

The impact of corporate social performance on financial risk and utility: a longitudinal analysis

This study focuses on the wealth-protective effects of socially responsible firm behavior by examining the association between corporate social performance (CSP) and financial risk for an extensive panel data sample of S&P 500 companies between the years 1992 and 2009. In addition, the link between CSP and investor utility is investigated. The main findings are that corporate social responsibility is negatively but weakly related to systematic firm risk and that corporate social irresponsibility is positively and strongly related to financial risk. The fact that both conventional and downside risk measures lead to the same conclusions adds convergent validity to the analysis. However, the risk-return trade-off appears to be such that no clear utility gain or loss can be realized by investing in firms characterized by different levels of social and environmental performance. Overall volatility conditions of the financial markets are shown to play a moderating role in the nature and strength of the CSP-risk relationship.

Managing governance, risk and compliance for post-crisis regulatory change: a model of IS capabilities for financial organizations

The 2008-2009 financial crisis and related organizational and economic failures have meant that financial organizations are faced with a ‘tsunami’ of new regulatory obligations. This environment provides new managerial challenges as organizations are forced to engage in complex and costly remediation projects with short deadlines. Drawing from a longitudinal study conducted with nine financial institutions over twelve years, this paper identifies nine IS capabilities which underpin activities for managing regulatory themed governance, risk and compliance efforts. The research shows that many firms are now focused on meeting the Regulators’ deadlines at the expense of developing a strategic, enterprise-wide connected approach to compliance. Consequently, executives are in danger of implementing siloed compliance solutions within business functions. By evaluating the maturity of their IS capabilities which underpin regulatory adherence, managers have an opportunity to develop robust operational architectures and so are better positioned to face the challenges derived from shifting regulatory landscapes.

Loss of Dictyostelium HSPC300 causes a scar-like phenotype and loss of SCAR protein.

HSPC300 is essential for most SCAR complex functions. The phenotype of HSPC300 knockouts is most similar to mutants in scar, not the other members of the SCAR complex, suggesting that HSPC300 acts most directly on SCAR itself.

Moderate stake variations for risk and uncertainty, gains and losses: methodological implications for comparative studies

Risk attitudes are known to be sensitive to large stake variations. However, little is known on the sensitivity to moderate variations in stakes. This is important for studies that want to compare risk attitudes between countries or over time. I find that variations of ±20% affect only utility, while larger variations may affect also probability weighting. Surprisingly, the effect on weighting functions is larger for losses than for gains. It is also more pronounced for risk than for uncertainty.

Risk and price in the bidding process of contractors

Formal and analytical risk models prescribe how risk should be incorporated in construction bids. However, the actual process of how contractors and their clients negotiate and agree on price is complex, and not clearly articulated in the literature. Using participant observation, the entire tender process was shadowed in two leading UK construction firms. This was compared to propositions in analytical models and significant differences were found. 670 hours of work observed in both firms revealed three stages of the bidding process. Bidding activities were categorized and their extent estimated as deskwork (32%), calculations (19%), meetings (14%), documents (13%), off-days (11%), conversations (7%), correspondence (3%) and travel (1%). Risk allowances of 1-2% were priced in some bids and three tiers of risk apportionment in bids were identified. However, priced risks may sometimes be excluded from the final bidding price to enhance competitiveness. Thus, although risk apportionment affects a contractor’s pricing strategy, other complex, microeconomic factors also affect price. Instead of pricing in contingencies, risk was priced mostly through contractual rather than price mechanisms, to reflect commercial imperatives. The findings explain why some assumptions underpinning analytical models may not be sustainable in practice and why what actually happens in practice is important for those who seek to model the pricing of construction bids.

Inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in a reintroduced population of Mauritius Kestrel

Many populations have recovered from severe bottlenecks either naturally or through intensive conservation management. In the past, however, few conservation programs have monitored the genetic health of recovering populations. We conducted a conservation genetic assessment of a small, reintroduced population of Mauritius Kestrel (Falco punctatus) to determine whether genetic deterioration has occurred since its reintroduction. We used pedigree analysis that partially accounted for individuals of unknown origin to document that (1) inbreeding occurred frequently (2.6% increase per generation; N-el = 18.9), (2) 25% of breeding pairs were composed of either closely or moderately related individuals, (3) genetic diversity has been lost from the population (1,6% loss per generation; N-ev = 32.1) less rapidly than the corresponding increase in inbreeding, and (4) ignoring the contribution of unknown individuals to a pedigree will bias the metrics derived from that pedigree, ultimately obscuring the prevailing genetic dynamics. The rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in the subpopulation of Mauritius Kestrel we examined were extreme and among the highest yet documented in a wild vertebrate population. Thus, genetic deterioration may affect this population's long-term viability. Remedial conservation strategies are needed to reduce the impact of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in this species, We suggest that schemes to monitor genetic variation after reintroduction should be an integral component of endangered species recovery programs

Consumer trust, risk and food safety: a review

Consumers' attitudes to trust and risk are key issues in food safety research and attention needs to be focused on clearly defining a framework for analysing consumer behaviour in these terms. In order to achieve this, a detailed review of the recent literature surrounding risk, trust and the relationship between the two must be conducted. This paper aims to collate the current social sciences literature in the fields of food safety, trust and risk. It provides an insight into the economic and other modelling procedures available to measure consumers' attitudes to risk and trust in food safety and specifically notes the need for future research to concentrate on examining risk and trust as inter-related variables rather than two distinct, mutually exclusive concepts. A framework is proposed which it is hoped will assist in devising more effective research to support risk communication to consumers.

Constrained models of evolution lead to improved prediction of functional linkage from correlated gain and loss of genes

Motivation: We compare phylogenetic approaches for inferring functional gene links. The approaches detect independent instances of the correlated gain and loss of pairs of genes from species' genomes. We investigate the effect on results of basing evidence of correlations on two phylogenetic approaches, Dollo parsminony and maximum likelihood (ML). We further examine the effect of constraining the ML model by fixing the rate of gene gain at a low value, rather than estimating it from the data. Results: We detect correlated evolution among a test set of pairs of yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) genes, with a case study of 21 eukaryotic genomes and test data derived from known yeast protein complexes. If the rate at which genes are gained is constrained to be low, ML achieves by far the best results at detecting known functional links. The model then has fewer parameters but it is more realistic by preventing genes from being gained more than once. Availability: BayesTraits by M. Pagel and A. Meade, and a script to configure and repeatedly launch it by D. Barker and M. Pagel, are available at http://www.evolution.reading.ac.uk .

A novel trinuclear nickel(II) complex of an unsymmetrical tetradentate ligand involving bridging oxime and acetylacetone functions

A novel trinuclear nickel(II) complex, [Ni-3(L)(2)(H2O)(2)](ClO4)(2), where L is a bridging unsymmetrical tetradentate ligand, involving o-phenylenediamine, diacetyl monoxime and acetylacetone (H2L = 4-[2-(3-hydroxy-1-methyl-but-2-enylideneamino)-phenylimino]-pentan-2- one oxime) has been synthesized and characterized structurally. In the complex, an octahedral Ni( II) centre is held in the middle by two square planar units with the aid of oxime and ketonic bridges. (c) 2007 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Techno-economic modelling and cost functions of CO2 capture processes

The paper presents the techno-economic modelling of CO2 capture process in coal-fired power plants. An overall model is being developed to compare carbon capture and sequestration options at locations within the UK, and for studies of the sensitivity of the cost of disposal to changes in the major parameters of the most promising solutions identified. Technological options of CO2 capture have been studied and cost estimation relationships (CERs) for the chosen options calculated. Created models are related to the capital, operation and maintenance cost. A total annualised cost of plant electricity output and amount of CO2 avoided have been developed. The influence of interest rates and plant life has been analysed as well. The CERs are included as an integral part of the overall model.