Thresholds for irreversible decline of the Greenland ice sheet

The Greenland ice sheet will decline in volume in a warmer climate. If a sufficiently warm climate is maintained for a few thousand years, the ice sheet will be completely melted. This raises the question of whether the decline would be reversible: would the ice sheet regrow if the climate cooled down? To address this question, we conduct a number of experiments using a climate model and a high-resolution ice-sheet model. The experiments are initialised with ice sheet states obtained from various points during its decline as simulated in a high-CO2 scenario, and they are then forced with a climate simulated for pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations, to determine the possible trajectories of subsequent ice sheet evolution. These trajectories are not the reverse of the trajectory during decline. They converge on three different steady states. The original ice-sheet volume can be regained only if the volume has not fallen below a threshold of irreversibility, which lies between 80 and 90% of the original value. Depending on the degree of warming and the sensitivity of the climate and the ice-sheet, this point of no return could be reached within a few hundred years, sooner than CO2 and global climate could revert to a pre-industrial state, and in that case global sea level rise of at least 1.3 m would be irreversible. An even larger irreversible change to sea level rise of 5 m may occur if ice sheet volume drops below half of its current size. The set of steady states depends on the CO2 concentration. Since we expect the results to be quantitatively affected by resolution and other aspects of model formulation, we would encourage similar investigations with other models.

Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO2 Climate

Projections of future global sea level depend on reliable estimates of changes in the size of polar ice sheets. Calculating this directly from global general circulation models (GCMs) is unreliable because the coarse resolution of 100 km or more is unable to capture narrow ablation zones, and ice dynamics is not usually taken into account in GCMs. To overcome these problems a high-resolution (20 km) dynamic ice sheet model has been coupled to the third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). A novel feature is the use of two-way coupling, so that climate changes in the GCM drive ice mass changes in the ice sheet model that, in turn, can alter the future climate through changes in orography, surface albedo, and freshwater input to the model ocean. At the start of the main experiment the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was increased to 4 times the preindustrial level and held constant for 3000 yr. By the end of this period the Greenland ice sheet is almost completely ablated and has made a direct contribution of approximately 7 m to global average sea level, causing a peak rate of sea level rise of 5 mm yr-1 early in the simulation. The effect of ice sheet depletion on global and regional climate has been examined and it was found that apart from the sea level rise, the long-term effect on global climate is small. However, there are some significant regional climate changes that appear to have reduced the rate at which the ice sheet ablates.

Evaluation of the sea ice simulation in a new coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (HadGEM1)

[ 1] A rapid increase in the variety, quality, and quantity of observations in polar regions is leading to a significant improvement in the understanding of sea ice dynamic and thermodynamic processes and their representation in global climate models. We assess the simulation of sea ice in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) against the latest available observations. The HadGEM1 sea ice component uses elastic-viscous-plastic dynamics, multiple ice thickness categories, and zero-layer thermodynamics. The model evaluation is focused on the mean state of the key variables of ice concentration, thickness, velocity, and albedo. The model shows good agreement with observational data sets. The variability of the ice forced by the North Atlantic Oscillation is also found to agree with observations.

Farm-level risk factors for fluoroquinolone resistance in E-coli and thermophilic Campylobacter spp. on finisher pig farms

Logistic regression, supported by other statistical analyses was used to explore the possible association of risk factors with the fluoroquinolone (FQ)-resistance status of 108 pig finisher farms in Great Britain. The farms were classified as 'affected' or 'not affected' by FQ-resistant E. coli or Campylobacter spp. on the basis of isolation of organisms from faecal samples on media containing 1 mg/l FQ. The use of FQ was the most important factor associated with finding resistant E. coli and/or Campylobacter, which were found on 79% (FQ-resistant E. coli) and 86% (FQ-resistant Campylobacter) of farms with a history of FQ use. However, resistant bacteria were also found on 19% (FQ-resistant E. coli) and 54% (FQ-resistant Campylobacter) of farms with no history of FQ use. For FQ-resistant E. coli, biosecurity measures may be protective and there was strong seasonal variation, with more farms found affected when sampled in the summer. For FQ-resistant Campylobacter, the buying-in of grower stock may increase risk and good on-farm hygiene may be protective. The findings suggest that resistant organisms, particularly Campylobacter, may spread between pig farms.

A survey of fluoroquinolone resistance in Escherichia coli and thermophilic Campylobacter spp. on poultry and pig farms in Great Britain

Aims: To estimate the proportions of farms on which broilers, turkeys and pigs were shedding fluoroquinolone (FQ)-resistant Escherichia coli or Campylobacter spp. near to slaughter. Methods and Results: Freshly voided faeces were collected on 89 poultry and 108 pig farms and cultured with media containing 1.0 mg l(-1) ciprofloxacin. Studies demonstrated the specificity of this sensitive method, and both poultry and pig sampling yielded FQ-resistant E. coli on 60% of farms. FQ-resistant Campylobacter spp. were found on around 22% of poultry and 75% of pig farms. The majority of resistant isolates of Campylobacter (89%) and E. coli (96%) tested had minimum inhibitory concentrations for ciprofloxacin of >= 8 mg l(-1). The proportion of resistant E. coli and Campylobacter organisms within samples varied widely. Conclusions: FQ resistance is commonly present among two enteric bacterial genera prevalent on pig and poultry farms, although the low proportion of resistant organisms in many cases requires a sensitive detection technique. Significance and Impact of the Study: FQ-resistant bacteria with zoonotic potential appear to be present on a high proportion of UK pig and poultry farms. The risk this poses to consumers relative to other causes of FQ-resistant human infections remains to be clarified.

Interference competition and high temperature reduce the ‘virulence’ of fig wasps and contribute to stability of a fig-wasp mutualism

Fig trees are pollinated by fig wasps, which also oviposit in female flowers. The wasp larvae gall and eat developing seeds. Although fig trees benefit from allowing wasps to oviposit, because the wasp offspring disperse pollen, figs must prevent wasps from ovipositing in all flowers, or seed production would cease, and the mutualism would go extinct. In Ficus racemosa, we find that syconia (‘figs’) that have few foundresses (ovipositing wasps) are underexploited in the summer (few seeds, few galls, many empty ovules) and are overexploited in the winter (few seeds, many galls, few empty ovules). Conversely, syconia with many foundresses produce intermediate numbers of galls and seeds, regardless of season. We use experiments to explain these patterns, and thus, to explain how this mutualism is maintained. In the hot summer, wasps suffer short lifespans and therefore fail to oviposit in many flowers. In contrast, cooler temperatures in the winter permit longer wasp lifespans, which in turn allows most flowers to be exploited by the wasps. However, even in winter, only in syconia that happen to have few foundresses are most flowers turned into galls. In syconia with higher numbers of foundresses, interference competition reduces foundress lifespans, which reduces the proportion of flowers that are galled. We further show that syconia encourage the entry of multiple foundresses by delaying ostiole closure. Taken together, these factors allow fig trees to reduce galling in the wasp-benign winter and boost galling (and pollination) in the wasp-stressing summer. Interference competition has been shown to reduce virulence in pathogenic bacteria. Our results show that interference also maintains cooperation in a classic, cooperative symbiosis, thus linking theories of virulence and mutualism. More generally, our results reveal how frequency-dependent population regulation can occur in the fig-wasp mutualism, and how a host species can ‘set the rules of the game’ to ensure mutualistic behavior in its symbionts.

Longevity, early emergence and body size in a pollinating fig wasp - implications for stability in a fig-pollinator mutualism

1. Fig trees (Ficus) are pollinated only by agaonid wasps, whose larvae also gall fig ovules. Each ovule develops into either a seed (when pollinated) or a wasp (when an egg is also laid inside) but not both. 2. Ovipositing wasps (foundresses) favour ovules near the centre of the enclosed inflorescence (syconium or 'fig'), leaving ovules near the outer wall to develop into seeds. This spatial stratification of wasps and seeds ensures reproduction in both partners, and thereby enables mutualism persistence. However, the mechanism(s) responsible remain(s) unknown. 3. Theory shows that foundresses will search for increasingly rare inner ovules and ignore outer ovules, as long as ovipositing in outer ovules is sufficiently slow and/or if inner ovules confer greater fitness to wasps. The fig-pollinator mutualism can therefore be stabilized by strong time constraints on foundresses and by offspring fitness gradients over variation in ovule position. 4. Female fig wasps cannot leave their galls without male assistance. We found that females in outer ovules were unlikely to be released. Inner ovules thus have added value to foundresses, because their female offspring are more likely to mate and disperse. 5. For those offspring that did emerge, gall position (inner/outer) and body size did not influence the order in which female pollinators exited syconia, nor did early emerging wasps enjoy increased life spans. 6. We also found that the life spans of female wasps nearly doubled when given access to moisture. We suggest that conflict resolution in the fig-pollinator mutualism may thus be influenced by tropical seasonality, because wasps may be less able to over-exploit ovules in dry periods due to time constraints.

A role for parasites in stabilising the fig-pollinator mutualism

Mutualisms are interspecific interactions in which both players benefit. Explaining their maintenance is problematic, because cheaters should outcompete cooperative conspecifics, leading to mutualism instability. Monoecious figs (Ficus) are pollinated by host-specific wasps (Agaonidae), whose larvae gall ovules in their "fruits'' (syconia). Female pollinating wasps oviposit directly into Ficus ovules from inside the receptive syconium. Across Ficus species, there is a widely documented segregation of pollinator galls in inner ovules and seeds in outer ovules. This pattern suggests that wasps avoid, or are prevented from ovipositing into, outer ovules, and this results in mutualism stability. However, the mechanisms preventing wasps from exploiting outer ovules remain unknown. We report that in Ficus rubiginosa, offspring in outer ovules are vulnerable to attack by parasitic wasps that oviposit from outside the syconium. Parasitism risk decreases towards the centre of the syconium, where inner ovules provide enemy-free space for pollinator offspring. We suggest that the resulting gradient in offspring viability is likely to contribute to selection on pollinators to avoid outer ovules, and by forcing wasps to focus on a subset of ovules, reduces their galling rates. This previously unidentified mechanism may therefore contribute to mutualism persistence independent of additional factors that invoke plant defences against pollinator oviposition, or physiological constraints on pollinators that prevent oviposition in all available ovules.

Hypothesis about mechanisms through which nicotine might exert its effect on the interdependence of inflammation and gut barrier function in ulcerative colitis

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is characterized by impairment of the epithelial barrier and the formation of ulcer-type lesions, which result in local leaks and generalized alterations of mucosal tight junctions. Ultimately, this results in increased basal permeability. Although disruption of the epithelial barrier in the gut is a hallmark of inflammatory bowel disease and intestinal infections, it remains unclear whether barrier breakdown is an initiating event of UC or rather a consequence of an underlying inflammation, evidenced by increased production of proinflammatory cytokines. UC is less common in smokers, suggesting that the nicotine in cigarettes may ameliorate disease severity. The mechanism behind this therapeutic effect is still not fully understood, and indeed it remains unclear if nicotine is the true protective agent in cigarettes. Nicotine is metabolized in the body into a variety of metabolites and can also be degraded to form various breakdown products. It is possible these metabolites or degradation products may be the true protective or curative agents. A greater understanding of the pharmacodynamics and kinetics of nicotine in relation to the immune system and enhanced knowledge of out permeability defects in UC are required to establish the exact protective nature of nicotine and its metabolites in UC. This review suggests possible hypotheses for the protective mechanism of nicotine in UC, highlighting the relationship between gut permeability and inflammation, and indicates where in the pathogenesis of the disease nicotine may mediate its effect.

The effect of nicotine in vitro on the integrity of tight junctions in Caco-2 cell monolayers

Ulcerative colitis is characterised by impairment of the epithelial barrier and tight junction alterations resulting in increased intestinal permeability. UC is less common in smokers with smoking reported to decrease paracellular permeability. The aim of this study was thus to determine the effect of nicotine, the major constituent in cigarettes and its metabolites on the integrity of tight junctions in Caco-2 cell monolayers. The integrity of Caco-2 tight junctions was analysed by measuring the transepithelial electrical resistance (TER) and by tracing the flux of the fluorescent marker fluorescein, after treatment with various concentrations of nicotine or nicotine metabolites over 48 h. TER was significantly higher compared to the control for all concentrations of nicotine 0.01-10 M at 48 h (p < 0.001), and for 0.01 mu M (p < 0.001) and 0.1 mu M and 10 M nicotine (p < 0.01) at 12 and 24 h. The fluorescein flux results supported those of the TER assay. TER readings for all nicotine metabolites tested were also higher at 24 and 48 h only (p <= 0.01). Western blot analysis demonstrated that nicotine up-regulated the expression of the tight junction proteins occludin and claudin-l (p < 0.01). Overall, it appears that nicotine and its metabolites, at concentrations corresponding to those reported in the blood of smokers, can significantly improve tight junction integrity, and thus, decrease epithelial gut permeability. We have shown that in vitro, nicotine appears more potent than its metabolites in decreasing epithelial gut permeability. We speculate that this enhanced gut barrier may be the result of increased expression of claudin-l and occludin proteins, which are associated with the formation of tight junctions. These findings may help explain the mechanism of action of nicotine treatment and indeed smoking in reducing epithelial gut permeability. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thinking skills in the early years: a literature review

Since 1999, thinking skills have been included in the National Curriculum alongside ‘key skills’ such as those to do with communication and information and communications technology (ICT). Thinking skills are expected to be developed at all key stages and centre on: information-processing skills, reasoning skills, enquiry skills, creative thinking skills and evaluation skills. This literature review consisted of three phases based on the following research questions: 1. What pedagogical approaches to developing generic thinking skills currently exist for children between the ages of three and seven? 2. What are the generic thinking skills that children are able to demonstrate at this age? 3. What is the relationship between these thinking capabilities and those that the pedagogical approaches aim to develop? The review covered post-2000 literature in the area of thinking skills in the early years. It provides an update of the evidence base upon which thinking skills approaches have been established, suggests areas where more evidence is needed and makes some practical recommendations for researchers, policy makers and practitioners.

Queer sex in the metropolis? Place, subjectivity and the Second World War

The strong links between cities and queer culture and its expression have occupied numerous scholars, including Henning Bech and Matt Houlbrook. Indeed, London has been viewed as a focal point of British queer urban culture for over 200 years and, as this article demonstrates, the advent of the Second World War did not preclude this centrality but ensured that the city became a focal point for service personnel on leave. Yet, the emphasis placed on the metropolises in analysing space and queer expression has rendered invisible the use of more transient spaces outside of the city. This article seeks to examine these ‘alternative’ or opportunistic sites of expression, using oral testimony from queer men who served with the British Armed Forces during the Second World War. The memories of these servicemen and the significance they place on space/locations demonstrate the need to engage with subjective sites or ‘geographies’ of queerness both inside and outside of the city between 1939 and 1945.