Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

Differential susceptibilities of peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae (Homoptera: Aphididae) and its parasitoid, Aphidius matricariae (Hymenoptera: Aphidiidae) to foliar insecticides on partially resistant and susceptible potato cultivars

In a field experiment the effects of Sumicidin (super) 5EC (fenitrothion), Metasystox EC25 (oxydemeton-methyl) and Tamaron SL600 (methamidophos), applied at different dosages, were evaluated against peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae (Sulzer) and its parasitoid Aphidius matricariae Haliday on Cardinal and Desiree (respectively partially resistant and susceptible potato cultivars to M. persicae). Sumicidin (super) 5EC was found about 30% more effective in reducing aphid populations than the other insecticides tested. The highest doses of each insecticide caused maximum aphid mortality; in general aphid mortality appeared dose dependent. Almost all the higher and lower doses of the tested insecticides were about 19% more effective on Cardinal than on Desiree. The most significant result was the synergistic interaction at the lower doses with plant resistance, so that the same level of control was recorded with second highest dose on Cardinal as with the highest dose on Desiree. Also the same control level was achieved at the lowest dosage rate on Cardinal compared with the next higher dose on the Desiree. Sumicidin (super) 5EC was found least toxic to the parasitoid, A. matricariae in terms of percent parasitism, emergence of parasitoids and number of mature eggs in the emerging female parasitoids; increase of about 22, 67 and 47% respectively were found in parasitoid performance with Tamaron SL600 which was found comparatively highly toxic. The highest doses of all insecticides were found clearly toxic to the parasitoid. In general, effects on the parasitoid were dose dependent. Maximum yield was obtained from the second highest dose of Sumicidin (super) 5EC.

Selective toxicity of different granular insecticides to the peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae (Homoptera: Aphididae) and its parasitoid, Aphidius matricariae (Hymenoptera: Aphidiidae) in two differentially resistant potato cultivars

Field studies were conducted in Pakistan to examine the effects and the interaction of two differentially resistant potato cultivars i.e. Cardinal and Desiree (one partially resistant and one susceptible to Myzus persicae (Sulzer), respectively) with different dosage rates of granular insecticides, at different time intervals after application in relation to percent kill of M. persicae and effects on the parasitoid Aphidius matricariae Haliday (i.e. the third trophic level) within the aphid mummies, percent parasitism and Thimet 10G (phorate) was found about 30% more effective in reducing aphid population than the Furadan 3G (carbofuran). The highest doses of each insecticide caused maximum aphid mortality, in general aphid mortality appeared dose dependent. Mostly all the higher and lower doses of the tested insecticides were about 10% more effective on Cardinal than on Desiree. The most significant result was the synergistic interaction at the lower doses with plant resistance, so that the same level of control was recorded with the second highest dose on Cardinal as with the highest dose on Desiree. Also the same level of control was observed at the lowest dose on Cardinal as with the second last lowest dose on Desiree. Furadan 3G was found least toxic to the A. matricariae in terms of percent parasitism, emergence of parasitoids and number of mature eggs in the emerging females. Furadan 3G gave 13, 15 and 6% higher figures, respectively from the parasitoid characteristics than Thimet 10G. The highest doses of both insecticides were clearly toxic to the parasitoid. In general, the effects on the parasitoid were dose dependent. The second highest dose of Thimet 10G, gave the maximum yield

Effects of two potential pest management components, intercropping and yellow sticky plastic sheet traps in two differentially resistant potato cultivars for the management of myzus persicae (Sulzer)

Polyculture is traditionally a low-input agricultural system and is important in many developing countries. Polycultures of interplanted crops often support fewer pests at lower densities than monoculture and tend to increase number of natural enemies. Also Yellow Sticky Plastic Sheet Traps have proved useful for trapping aphids. A field study was conducted to study the effectiveness of these potential pest management techniques along with the partially resistant (Cardinal) and susceptible (Desiree) potato cultivars, by using their different combinations for the management of Myzus persicae (Sulzer). Berseem, Trifolium alexandrinum (L.) (family: Leguminosae) was used for intercropping with potatoes. The different combinations (treatments) used in this study were: 1) Cardinal-berseem mixed cropping+yellow sticky plastic sheet traps 2) Cardinal-berseem mixed cropping 3) Cardinal+yellow sticky plastic sheet traps 4) Cardinal separately+berseem (as land area equivalents in relation to the mixed cropping treatments) 5) Cardinal (sole crop). Treatments 6-10 were the same treatments, but with Desiree as the potato cultivar. All these treatments were used to evaluate their effects as management techniques for M. persicae, their percent parasitism, percent emergence rate of the parasitoid, Aphidius matricariae Haliday and yield of Cardinal and Desiree. Mixed cropping of Cardinal and berseem together with the yellow sticky plastic sheet traps reduced aphids by over 90% compared with numbers on the sole Cardinal crop. This combination proved in this experiment the most effective for reducing the aphid populations as compared with all other treatments. Maximum percent parasitism i.e. 6.97 and 6.94% (almost double that in the other treatments) was recorded in the potato berseem mixed cropping, with and without traps respectively. In the same two treatments, yield was increased significantly as compared with all other treatments. However no significant effects of any of the variable was evident on the percent emergence of A. matricariae.

Antixenosis to the peach/potato aphid, myzus persicae (SuIzer) in potato cultivars

Field studies were conducted to determine the antixenotic resistance against the peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae (Sulzer) in different potato cultivars i.e. Cardinal, Ultimus and Desiree. These cultivars were studied in the paired tests as Cardinal vs. Desiree and Cardinal vs. Desiree for antixenosis (systemic insecticide-based test). In Desiree vs. Ultimus, no significant difference was found for the preference of M. persicae, while in case of Cardinal vs. Desiree, there was a significant preference for Desiree. Cardinal clearly showed antixenosis to M. persicae.

Anticipatory activation in the amygdala and anterior cingulate in generalized anxiety disorder and prediction of treatment response

OBJECTIVE: The anticipation of adverse outcomes, or worry, is a cardinal symptom of generalized anxiety disorder. Prior work with healthy subjects has shown that anticipating aversive events recruits a network of brain regions, including the amygdala and anterior cingulate cortex. This study tested whether patients with generalized anxiety disorder have alterations in anticipatory amygdala function and whether anticipatory activity in the anterior cingulate cortex predicts treatment response. METHOD: Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was employed with 14 generalized anxiety disorder patients and 12 healthy comparison subjects matched for age, sex, and education. The event-related fMRI paradigm was composed of one warning cue that preceded aversive pictures and a second cue that preceded neutral pictures. Following the fMRI session, patients received 8 weeks of treatment with extended-release venlafaxine. RESULTS: Patients with generalized anxiety disorder showed greater anticipatory activity than healthy comparison subjects in the bilateral dorsal amygdala preceding both aversive and neutral pictures. Building on prior reports of pretreatment anterior cingulate cortex activity predicting treatment response, anticipatory activity in that area was associated with clinical outcome 8 weeks later following treatment with venlafaxine. Higher levels of pretreatment anterior cingulate cortex activity in anticipation of both aversive and neutral pictures were associated with greater reductions in anxiety and worry symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: These findings of heightened and indiscriminate amygdala responses to anticipatory signals in generalized anxiety disorder and of anterior cingulate cortex associations with treatment response provide neurobiological support for the role of anticipatory processes in the pathophysiology of generalized anxiety disorder.

Features for detection of Parkinson's disease tremor from local field potentials of the subthalamic nucleus

Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS) is a treatment routinely used to alleviate the symptoms of Parkinson's disease (PD). In this type of treatment, electrical pulses are applied through electrodes implanted into the basal ganglia of the patient. As the symptoms are not permanent in most patients, it is desirable to develop an on-demand stimulator, applying pulses only when onset of the symptoms is detected. This study evaluates a feature set created for the detection of tremor - a cardinal symptom of PD. The designed feature set was based on standard signal features and researched properties of the electrical signals recorded from subthalamic nucleus (STN) within the basal ganglia, which together included temporal, spectral, statistical, autocorrelation and fractal properties. The most characterized tremor related features were selected using statistical testing and backward algorithms then used for classification on unseen patient signals. The spectral features were among the most efficient at detecting tremor, notably spectral bands 3.5-5.5 Hz and 0-1 Hz proved to be highly significant. The classification results for determination of tremor achieved 94% sensitivity with specificity equaling one.

Broadly speaking: vocabulary in semantic dementia shifts towards general, semantically diverse words

One of the cardinal features of semantic dementia (SD) is a steady reduction in expressive vocabulary. We investigated the nature of this breakdown by assessing the psycholinguistic characteristics of words produced spontaneously by SD patients during an autobiographical memory interview. Speech was analysed with respect to frequency and imageability, and a recently-developed measure called semantic diversity. This measure quantifies the degree to which a word can be used in a broad range of different linguistic contexts. We used this measure in a formal exploration of the tendency for SD patients to replace specific terms with more vague and general words, on the assumption that more specific words are used in a more constrained set of contexts. Relative to healthy controls, patients were less likely to produce low-frequency, high-imageability words, and more likely to produce highly frequent, abstract words. These changes in the lexical-semantic landscape were related to semantic diversity: the highly frequent and abstract words most prevalent in the patients' speech were also the most semantically diverse. In fact, when the speech samples of healthy controls were artificially engineered such that low semantic diversity words (e.g., garage, spanner) were replaced with broader terms (e.g., place, thing), the characteristics of their speech production came to closely resemble that of SD patients. A similar simulation in which low-frequency words were replaced was less successful in replicating the patient data. These findings indicate systematic biases in the deterioration of lexical-semantic space in SD. As conceptual knowledge degrades, speech increasingly consists of general terms that can be applied in a broad range of linguistic contexts and convey less specific information.

An epigenetic signature of developmental potential in neural stem cells and early neurons.

A cardinal property of neural stem cells (NSCs) is their ability to adopt multiple fates upon differentiation. The epigenome is widely seen as a read-out of cellular potential and a manifestation of this can be seen in embryonic stem cells (ESCs), where promoters of many lineage-specific regulators are marked by a bivalent epigenetic signature comprising trimethylation of both lysine 4 and lysine 27 of histone H3 (H3K4me3 and H3K27me3, respectively). Bivalency has subsequently emerged as a powerful epigenetic indicator of stem cell potential. Here, we have interrogated the epigenome during differentiation of ESC-derived NSCs to immature GABAergic interneurons. We show that developmental transitions are accompanied by loss of bivalency at many promoters in line with their increasing developmental restriction from pluripotent ESC through multipotent NSC to committed GABAergic interneuron. At the NSC stage, the promoters of genes encoding many transcriptional regulators required for differentiation of multiple neuronal subtypes and neural crest appear to be bivalent, consistent with the broad developmental potential of NSCs. Upon differentiation to GABAergic neurons, all non-GABAergic promoters resolve to H3K27me3 monovalency, whereas GABAergic promoters resolve to H3K4me3 monovalency or retain bivalency. Importantly, many of these epigenetic changes occur before any corresponding changes in gene expression. Intriguingly, another group of gene promoters gain bivalency as NSCs differentiate toward neurons, the majority of which are associated with functions connected with maturation and establishment and maintenance of connectivity. These data show that bivalency provides a dynamic epigenetic signature of developmental potential in both NSCs and in early neurons. Stem Cells 2013;31:1868-1880.

Transient receptor potential ion channels V4 and A1 contribute to pancreatitis pain in mice.

The mechanisms of pancreatic pain, a cardinal symptom of pancreatitis, are unknown. Proinflammatory agents that activate transient receptor potential (TRP) channels in nociceptive neurons can cause neurogenic inflammation and pain. We report a major role for TRPV4, which detects osmotic pressure and arachidonic acid metabolites, and TRPA1, which responds to 4-hydroxynonenal and cyclopentenone prostaglandins, in pancreatic inflammation and pain in mice. Immunoreactive TRPV4 and TRPA1 were detected in pancreatic nerve fibers and in dorsal root ganglia neurons innervating the pancreas, which were identified by retrograde tracing. Agonists of TRPV4 and TRPA1 increased intracellular Ca(2+) concentration ([Ca(2+)](i)) in these neurons in culture, and neurons also responded to the TRPV1 agonist capsaicin and are thus nociceptors. Intraductal injection of TRPV4 and TRPA1 agonists increased c-Fos expression in spinal neurons, indicative of nociceptor activation, and intraductal TRPA1 agonists also caused pancreatic inflammation. The effects of TRPV4 and TRPA1 agonists on [Ca(2+)](i), pain and inflammation were markedly diminished or abolished in trpv4 and trpa1 knockout mice. The secretagogue cerulein induced pancreatitis, c-Fos expression in spinal neurons, and pain behavior in wild-type mice. Deletion of trpv4 or trpa1 suppressed c-Fos expression and pain behavior, and deletion of trpa1 attenuated pancreatitis. Thus TRPV4 and TRPA1 contribute to pancreatic pain, and TRPA1 also mediates pancreatic inflammation. Our results provide new information about the contributions of TRPV4 and TRPA1 to inflammatory pain and suggest that channel antagonists are an effective therapy for pancreatitis, when multiple proinflammatory agents are generated that can activate and sensitize these channels.

Resilience of rice (Oryzaspp.) pollen germination and tube growth to temperature stress

Resilience of rice cropping systems to potential global climate change will partly depend on temperature tolerance of pollen germination (PG) and tube growth (PTG). Germination of pollen of high temperature susceptible Oryza glaberrima Steud. (cv. CG14) and O. sativa L. ssp. indica (cv. IR64) and high temperature tolerant O. sativa ssp. aus (cv. N22), was assessed on a 5.6-45.4°C temperature gradient system. Mean maximum PG was 85% at 27°C with 1488 μm PTG at 25°C. The hypothesis that in each pollen grain, minimum temperature requirements (Tn) and maximum temperature limits (Tx) for germination operate independently was accepted by comparing multiplicative and subtractive probability models. The maximum temperature limit for PG in 50% of grains (Tx(50)) was lowest (29.8°C) in IR64 compared with CG14 (34.3°C) and N22 (35.6°C). Standard deviation (sx) of Tx was also low in IR64 (2.3°C) suggesting that the mechanism of IR64's susceptibility to high temperatures may relate to PG. Optimum germination temperatures and thermal times for 1mm PTG were not linked to tolerating high temperatures at anthesis. However, the parameters Tx(50) and sx in the germination model define new pragmatic criteria for successful and resilient PG, preferable to the more traditional cardinal (maximum and minimum) temperatures.

Civilian casualties and nuclear weapons: the application of the rule of distinction

This chapter considers the possible use in armed conflict of low-yield (also known as tactical) nuclear weapons. The Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons Advisory Opinion maintained that it is a cardinal principle that a State must never make civilians an object of attack and must consequently never use weapons that are incapable of distinguishing between civilian and military targets. As international humanitarian law applies equally to any use of nuclear weapons, it is argued that there is no use of nuclear weapons that could spare civilian casualties particularly if you view the long-term health and environmental effects of the use of such weaponry.