Dynamic scaling of bred vectors in spatially extended chaotic systems

We unfold a profound relationship between the dynamics of finite-size perturbations in spatially extended chaotic systems and the universality class of Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ). We show how this relationship can be exploited to obtain a complete theoretical description of the bred vectors dynamics. The existence of characteristic length/time scales, the spatial extent of spatial correlations and how to time it, and the role of the breeding amplitude are all analyzed in the light of our theory. Implications to weather forecasting based on ensembles of initial conditions are also discussed.

Moist singular vectors and the predictability of some high impact European cyclones

The ECMWF full-physics and dry singular vector (SV) packages, using a dry energy norm and a 1-day optimization time, are applied to four high impact European cyclones of recent years that were almost universally badly forecast in the short range. It is shown that these full-physics SVs are much more relevant to severe cyclonic development than those based on dry dynamics plus boundary layer alone. The crucial extra ingredient is the representation of large-scale latent heat release. The severe winter storms all have a long, nearly straight region of high baroclinicity stretching across the Atlantic towards Europe, with a tongue of very high moisture content on its equatorward flank. In each case some of the final-time top SV structures pick out the region of the actual storm. The initial structures were generally located in the mid- to low troposphere. Forecasts based on initial conditions perturbed by moist SVs with opposite signs and various amplitudes show the range of possible 1-day outcomes for reasonable magnitudes of forecast error. In each case one of the perturbation structures gave a forecast very much closer to the actual storm than the control forecast. Deductions are made about the predictability of high-impact extratropical cyclone events. Implications are drawn for the short-range forecast problem and suggestions made for one practicable way to approach short-range ensemble forecasting. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.

The influence of physical processes on extratropical singular vectors

An investigation is made of the impact of a full linearized physical (moist) parameterization package on extratropical singular vectors (SVs) using the ECMWF integrated forecasting system (IFS). Comparison is made for one particular period with a dry physical package including only vertical diffusion and surface drag. The crucial extra ingredient in the full package is found to be the large-scale latent heat release. Consistent with basic theory, its inclusion results in a shift to smaller horizontal scales and enhanced growth for the SVs. Whereas, for the dry SVs, T42 resolution is sufficient, the moist SVs require T63 to resolve their structure and growth. A 24-h optimization time appears to be appropriate for the moist SVs because of the larger growth of moist SVs compared with dry SVs. Like dry SVs, moist SVs tend to occur in regions of high baroclinicity, but their location is also influenced by the availability of moisture. The most rapidly growing SVs appear to enhance or reduce large-scale rain in regions ahead of major cold fronts. The enhancement occurs in and ahead of a cyclonic perturbation and the reduction in and ahead of an anticyclonic perturbation. Most of the moist SVs for this situation are slightly modified versions of the dry SVs. However, some occur in new locations and have particularly confined structures. The most rapidly growing SV is shown to exhibit quite linear behavior in the nonlinear model as it grows from 0.5 to 12 hPa in 1 day. For 5 times this amplitude the structure is similar but the growth is about half as the perturbation damps a potential vorticity (PV) trough or produces a cutoff, depending on its sign.

A suite of parallel vectors for baculovirus expression

The expression of proteins using recombinant baculoviruses is a mature and widely used technology. However, some aspects of the technology continue to detract from high throughput use and the basis of the final observed expression level is poorly understood. Here, we describe the design and use of a set of vectors developed around a unified cloning strategy that allow parallel expression of target proteins in the baculovirus system as N-terminal or C-terminal fusions. Using several protein kinases as tests we found that amino-terminal fusion to maltose binding protein rescued expression of the poorly expressed human kinase Cot but had only a marginal effect on expression of a well-expressed kinase IKK-2. In addition, MBP fusion proteins were found to be secreted from the expressing cell. Use of a carboxyl-terminal GFP tagging vector showed that fluorescence measurement paralleled expression level and was a convenient readout in the context of insect cell expression, an observation that was further supported with additional non-kinase targets. The expression of the target proteins using the same vectors in vitro showed that differences in expression level were wholly dependent on the environment of the expressing cell and an investigation of the time course of expression showed it could affect substantially the observed expression level for poorly but not well-expressed proteins. Our vector suite approach shows that rapid expression survey can be achieved within the baculovirus system and in addition, goes some way to identifying the underlying basis of the expression level obtained. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A family of promoter probe vectors incorporating autofluorescent and chromogenic reporter proteins for studying gene expression in Gram-negative bacteria

A series of promoter probe vectors for use in Gram-negative bacteria has been made in two broad-host-range vectors, pOT (pBBR replicon) and pJP2 (incP replicon). Reporter fusions can be made to gfpUV, gfprnut3.1, unstable gfpmut3.1 variants (LAA, LVA, AAV and ASV), gfp+, dsRed2, dsRedT3, dsRedT4, mRFP1, gusA or lacZ. The two vector families, pOT and pJP2, are compatible with one another and share the same polylinker for facile interchange of promoter regions. Vectors based on pJP2 have the advantage of being ultra-stable in the environment due to the presence of the parABCDE genes. As a confirmation of their usefulness, the dicarboxylic acid transport system promoter (dctA(p)) was cloned into a pOT (pRU1097)- and a pJP2 (pRU1156)-based vector and shown to be expressed by Rhizobium leguminosarum in infection threads of vetch. This indicates the presence of dicarboxylates at the earliest stages of nodule formation.

Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean

A key aspect in designing an ecient decadal prediction system is ensuring that the uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions is sampled optimally. Here, we consider one strategy to address this issue by investigating the growth of optimal perturbations in the HadCM3 global climate model (GCM). More specically, climatically relevant singular vectors (CSVs) - the small perturbations which grow most rapidly for a specic initial condition - are estimated for decadal timescales in the Atlantic Ocean. It is found that reliable CSVs can be estimated by running a large ensemble of integrations of the GCM. Amplication of the optimal perturbations occurs for more than 10 years, and possibly up to 40 years. The identi ed regions for growing perturbations are found to be in the far North Atlantic, and these perturbations cause amplication through an anomalous meridional overturning circulation response. Additionally, this type of analysis potentially informs the design of future ocean observing systems by identifying the sensitive regions where small uncertainties in the ocean state can grow maximally. Although these CSVs are expensive to compute, we identify ways in which the process could be made more ecient in the future.

Riemann solvers with primitive parameter vectors for two-dimensional compressible flows of a real gas

An analysis of averaging procedures is presented for an approximate Riemann solver for the equations governing the compressible flow of a real gas. This study extends earlier work for the Euler equations with ideal gases.

Properties of singular vectors using convective available potential energy as final time norm

We study the feasibility of using the singular vector technique to create initial condition perturbations for short-range ensemble prediction systems (SREPS) focussing on predictability of severe local storms and in particular deep convection. For this a new final time semi-norm based on the convective available potential energy (CAPE) is introduced. We compare singular vectors using the CAPE-norm with SVs using the more common total energy (TE) norm for a 2-week summer period in 2007, which includes a case of mesoscale extreme rainfall in the south west of Finland. The CAPE singular vectors perturb the CAPE field by increasing the specific humidity and temperature of the parcel and increase the lapse rate above the parcel in the lower troposphere consistent with physical considerations. The CAPE-SVs are situated in the lower troposphere. This in contrast to TE-SVs with short optimization times which predominantly remain in the high troposphere. By examining the time evolution of the CAPE singular values we observe that the convective event in the south west of Finland is clearly associated with high CAPE singular values.

The effect of rapid changes in ionospheric flow on velocity vectors deduced from radar beam-swinging experiments

The effects on the horizontal ionospheric velocity vectors deduced from radar beam-swinging experiments, which occur when changes in the flow take place on short time scales compared with the experiment cycle time, are analysed in detail. The further complications which arise in the interpretation of beam-swinging data, due to longitudinal gradients in the flow and to field-aligned flows, are also considered. It is concluded that these effects are unlikely to seriously compromise statistical determinations of the response time of the flow, e.g. to changes in the north-south component of the IMF, such as have been recently reported by Etemadiet al. (1988, Planet. Space Sci.36, 471), using EISCAT ‘Polar’ data.

A proof of van Aubel's theorem using orthogonal vectors

We show how two linearly independent vectors can be used to construct two orthogonal vectors of equal magnitude in a simple way. The proof that the constructed vectors are orthogonal and of equal magnitude is a good exercise for students studying properties of scalar and vector triple products. We then show how this result can be used to prove van Aubel's theorem that relates the two line segments joining the centres of squares on opposite sides of a plane quadrilateral.