The heliospheric Hale cycle over the last 300 years and its implications for a “lost” late 18th century solar cycle

A Hale cycle, one complete magnetic cycle of the Sun, spans two complete Schwabe cycles (also referred to as sunspot and, more generally, solar cycles). The approximately 22-year Hale cycle is seen in magnetic polarities of both sunspots and polar fields, as well as in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth, with odd- and even-numbered solar cycles displaying qualitatively different waveforms. Correct numbering of solar cycles also underpins empirical cycle-to-cycle relations which are used as first-order tests of stellar dynamo models. There has been much debate about whether the unusually long solar cycle 4 (SC4), spanning- 1784–1799, was actually two shorter solar cycles combined as a result of poor data coverage in the original Wolf sunspot number record. Indeed, the group sunspot number does show a small increase around 1794–1799 and there is evidence of an increase in the mean latitude of sunspots at this time, suggesting the existence of a cycle ‘‘4b’’. In this study, we use cosmogenic radionuclide data and associated reconstructions of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) to show that the Hale cycle has persisted over the last 300 years and that data prior to 1800 are more consistent with cycle 4 being a single long cycle (the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario). We also investigate the effect of cycle 4b on the HMF using an open solar flux (OSF) continuity model, in which the OSF source term is related to sunspot number and the OSF loss term is determined by the heliospheric current sheet tilt, assumed to be a simple function of solar cycle phase. The results are surprising; Without SC4b, the HMF shows two distinct peaks in the 1784–1799 interval, while the addition of SC4b removes the secondary peak, as the OSF loss term acts in opposition to the later rise in sunspot number. The timing and magnitude of the main SC4 HMF peak is also significantly changed by the addition of SC4b. These results are compared with the cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of HMF and historical aurora records. These data marginally favour the existence of SC4b (the ‘‘SC4b’’ scenario), though the result is less certain than that based on the persistence of the Hale cycle. Thus while the current uncertainties in the observations preclude any definitive conclusions, the data favour the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario. Future improvements to cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of the HMF, through either improved modelling or additional ice cores from well-separated geographic locations, may enable questions of the existence of SC4b and the phase of Hale cycle prior to the Maunder minimum to be settled conclusively.

Retrieval of effective ice crystal size in the infrared: sensitivity study and global measurements from TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder

The difference between cirrus emissivities at 8 and 11 μm is sensitive to the mean effective ice crystal size of the cirrus cloud, De. By using single scattering properties of ice crystals shaped as planar polycrystals, diameters of up to about 70 μm can be retrieved, instead of up to 45 μm assuming spheres or hexagonal columns. The method described in this article is used for a global determination of mean effective ice crystal sizes of cirrus clouds from TOVS satellite observations. A sensitivity study of the De retrieval to uncertainties in hypotheses on ice crystal shape, size distributions, and temperature profiles, as well as in vertical and horizontal cloud heterogeneities shows that uncertainties can be as large as 30%. However, the TOVS data set is one of few data sets which provides global and long-term coverage. Having analyzed the years 1987–1991, it was found that measured effective ice crystal diameters De are stable from year to year. For 1990 a global median De of 53.5 μm was determined. Averages distinguishing ocean/land, season, and latitude lie between 23 μm in winter over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land and 64 μm in the tropics. In general, larger Des are found in regions with higher atmospheric water vapor and for cirrus with a smaller effective emissivity.

Century-of-Information Research (CIR): a strategy for research and innovation in the century of information

More data will be produced in the next five years than in the entire history of human kind, a digital deluge that marks the beginning of the Century of Information. Through a year-long consultation with UK researchers, a coherent strategy has been developed, which will nurture Century-of-Information Research (CIR); it crystallises the ideas developed by the e-Science Directors' Forum Strategy Working Group. This paper is an abridged version of their latest report which can be found at: http://wikis.nesc.ac.uk/escienvoy/Century_of_Information_Research_Strategy which also records the consultation process and the affiliations of the authors. This document is derived from a paper presented at the Oxford e-Research Conference 2008 and takes into account suggestions made in the ensuing panel discussion. The goals of the CIR Strategy are to facilitate the growth of UK research and innovation that is data and computationally intensive and to develop a new culture of 'digital-systems judgement' that will equip research communities, businesses, government and society as a whole, with the skills essential to compete and prosper in the Century of Information. The CIR Strategy identifies a national requirement for a balanced programme of coordination, research, infrastructure, translational investment and education to empower UK researchers, industry, government and society. The Strategy is designed to deliver an environment which meets the needs of UK researchers so that they can respond agilely to challenges, can create knowledge and skills, and can lead new kinds of research. It is a call to action for those engaged in research, those providing data and computational facilities, those governing research and those shaping education policies. The ultimate aim is to help researchers strengthen the international competitiveness of the UK research base and increase its contribution to the economy. The objectives of the Strategy are to better enable UK researchers across all disciplines to contribute world-leading fundamental research; to accelerate the translation of research into practice; and to develop improved capabilities, facilities and context for research and innovation. It envisages a culture that is better able to grasp the opportunities provided by the growing wealth of digital information. Computing has, of course, already become a fundamental tool in all research disciplines. The UK e-Science programme (2001-06)—since emulated internationally—pioneered the invention and use of new research methods, and a new wave of innovations in digital-information technologies which have enabled them. The Strategy argues that the UK must now harness and leverage its own, plus the now global, investment in digital-information technology in order to spread the benefits as widely as possible in research, education, industry and government. Implementing the Strategy would deliver the computational infrastructure and its benefits as envisaged in the Science & Innovation Investment Framework 2004-2014 (July 2004), and in the reports developing those proposals. To achieve this, the Strategy proposes the following actions: support the continuous innovation of digital-information research methods; provide easily used, pervasive and sustained e-Infrastructure for all research; enlarge the productive research community which exploits the new methods efficiently; generate capacity, propagate knowledge and develop skills via new curricula; and develop coordination mechanisms to improve the opportunities for interdisciplinary research and to make digital-infrastructure provision more cost effective. To gain the best value for money strategic coordination is required across a broad spectrum of stakeholders. A coherent strategy is essential in order to establish and sustain the UK as an international leader of well-curated national data assets and computational infrastructure, which is expertly used to shape policy, support decisions, empower researchers and to roll out the results to the wider benefit of society. The value of data as a foundation for wellbeing and a sustainable society must be appreciated; national resources must be more wisely directed to the collection, curation, discovery, widening access, analysis and exploitation of these data. Every researcher must be able to draw on skills, tools and computational resources to develop insights, test hypotheses and translate inventions into productive use, or to extract knowledge in support of governmental decision making. This foundation plus the skills developed will launch significant advances in research, in business, in professional practice and in government with many consequent benefits for UK citizens. The Strategy presented here addresses these complex and interlocking requirements.

A study of students' metacognitive beliefs about foreign language study and their impact on learning

This article reports on an investigation into the language learning beliefs of students of French in England, aged 16 to 18. It focuses on qualitative data from two groups of learners (10 in total). While both groups had broadly similar levels of achievement in French in terns of examination success, they dffered greatly in the self-image they had of themselves as language learners, with one group displaying low levels of self-eficacy beliefs regarding the possibility of future success. The implica tions of such beliefs for students' levels of motivation and persistence are discussed, together with their possible causes. The article concludes by suggesting changes in classroom practice that might help students develop a more positive image of them selves as language learners.

Safety evaluation of oligofructose: 13 Week rat study and in vitro mutagenicity

Oligofructose (OF), comprised of fructose oligomers with a terminal glucose unit, is a family Of oligosaccharides derived from the hydrolysis of inulin. Consumption of OF in animals and humans increases colonic bifidobacteria levels. The present study evaluates the safety of OF in both a 13 week rat feeding Study and Using in Vitro mutagenicity tests. Fecal bifidobacteria levels were also determined by in situ hybridization to assess a biological function of OF. Rats received either a control diet OF diets containing one of four doses of OF. Total, HDL, and LDL-cholesterol levels were significantly lower at several time points during the study in groups receiving OF compared to controls with the largest effects Occurring in the high dose male animals. Weight gain in the male high dose group was significantly lower at early time points compared to controls but]lot Significantly different at the end of study. As expected, cecal weights increased in a dose-related manner and fecal bifidobacteria levels also demonstrated a dose-related increase. There were no consistent differences in gross pathology or histopathology related to dietary OF. OF did not induce a positive response in the Ames test or chromosomal aberration test with CHO cells. These results demonstrate no adverse effects of OF. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.