Making robust policy decision using global biodiversity indicators

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

Conservation assessments and Red Listing of the endemic Moroccan flora (monocotyledons)

Morocco constitutes an important centre of plant diversity and speciation in the Mediterranean Basin. However, numerous species are threatened by issues ranging from human activities to global climatic change. In this study, we present the conservation assessments and Red Listing of the endemic Moroccan monocotyledons according to International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) criteria and categories. For each species, we include basic taxonomic information, local names and synonyms, uses, a distribution map, extent of occurrence, area of occupancy, population size and trend, a description of habitats and ecological requirements, and a discussion of the threats affecting the species and habitats. We assessed the threatened status of the endemic Moroccan monocotyledons at the species level (59 species) using the IUCN Red List criteria and categories (Version 3.1). This study shows the high extinction risk to the Moroccan monocotyledon flora, with 95% of threatened species (20% Critically Endangered, 50% Endangered, 25% Vulnerable) and only 5% not threatened (2% Near Threatened and 3% Least Concern). The flora is thus of conservation concern, which is poorly recognized, both nationally and internationally. The study presents the first part and so far the only national IUCN Red Data List for a large group of Moroccan plants, and thus provides an overview of the threatened Moroccan flora. This IUCN Red List is an important first step towards the recognition of the danger to Moroccan biodiversity hotspots, conservation of threatened species and the raising of public awareness at national and international levels.

PGR forum: serving the crop wild relative user community

The Euro-Mediterranean region is an important centre for the diversity of crop wild relatives. Crops, such as oats (Avena sativa), sugar beet (Beta vulgaris), apple (Malus domestica), annual meadow grass (Festuca pratensis), white clover (Trifolium repens), arnica (Arnica montana), asparagus (Asparagus officinalis), lettuce (Lactuca sativa), and sage (Salvia officinalis) etc., all have wild relatives in the region. The European Community funded project, PGR Forum (www.pgrforum.org) is building an online information system to provide access to crop wild relative data to a broad user community; including plant breeders, protected area managers, policy-makers, conservationists, taxonomists and the wider public. The system will include data on uses, geographical distribution, biology, population and habitat information, threats (including IUCN Red List assessments) and conservation actions. This information is vital for the continued sustainable utilisation and conservation of crop wild relatives. Two major databases have been utilised as the backbone to a Euro-Mediterranean crop wild relative catalogue, which forms the core of the information system: Euro+Med PlantBase (www.euromed.org.uk) and Mansfeld’s World Database of Agricultural and Horticultural Crops (http://mansfeld.ipk-gatersleben.de). By matching the genera found within the two databases, a preliminary list of crop wild relatives has been produced. Around 20,000 of the 30,000+ species listed in Euro+Med PlantBase can be considered crop wild relatives, i.e. those species found within the same genus as a crop. The list is currently being refined by implementing a priority ranking system based on the degree of relatedness of taxa to the associated crop.

Which intrinsic traits predict vulnerability to extinction depends on the actual threatening processes

Understanding what makes some species more vulnerable to extinction than others is an important challenge for conservation. Many comparative analyses have addressed this issue exploring how intrinsic and extrinsic traits associate with general estimates of vulnerability. However, these general estimates do not consider the actual threats that drive species to extinction and hence, are more difficult to translate into effective management. We provide an updated description of the types and spatial distribution of threats that affect mammals globally using data from the IUCN for 5941 species of mammals. Using these data we explore the links between intrinsic species traits and specific threats in order to identify key intrinsic features associated with particular drivers of extinction. We find that families formed by small-size habitat specialists are more likely to be threatened by habitat-modifying processes; whereas, families formed by larger mammals with small litter sizes are more likely to be threatened by processes that directly affect survival. These results highlight the importance of considering the actual threatening process in comparative studies. We also discuss the need to standardize and rank threat importance in global assessments such as the IUCN Red List to improve our ability to understand what makes some species more vulnerable to extinction than others.

Can the frequency of blocking be described by a red noise process?

The frequency of persistent atmospheric blocking events in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is compared with the blocking frequency produced by a simple first-order Markov model designed to predict the time evolution of a blocking index [defined by the meridional contrast of potential temperature on the 2-PVU surface (1 PVU ≡ 1 × 10−6 K m2 kg−1 s−1)]. With the observed spatial coherence built into the model, it is able to reproduce the main regions of blocking occurrence and the frequencies of sector blocking very well. This underlines the importance of the climatological background flow in determining the locations of high blocking occurrence as being the regions where the mean midlatitude meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient is weak. However, when only persistent blocking episodes are considered, the model is unable to simulate the observed frequencies. It is proposed that this persistence beyond that given by a red noise model is due to the self-sustaining nature of the blocking phenomenon.