Prediction leaching of potassium using the convective-dispersive and the convective log-normal transfer function models

There is increasing concern about soil enrichment with K+ and subsequent potential losses following long-term application of poor quality water to agricultural land. Different models are increasingly being used for predicting or analyzing water flow and chemical transport in soils and groundwater. The convective-dispersive equation (CDE) and the convective log-normal transfer function (CLT) models were fitted to the potassium (K+) leaching data. The CDE and CLT models produced equivalent goodness of fit. Simulated breakthrough curves for a range of CaCl2 concentration based on parameters of 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 were characterised by an early peak position associated with higher K+ concentration as the CaCl2 concentration used in leaching experiments decreased. In another method, the parameters estimated from 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 solution were used for all other CaCl2 concentrations, and the best value of retardation factor (R) was optimised for each data set. A better prediction was found. With decreasing CaCl2 concentration the value of R is required to be more than that measured (except for 10 mmol l(-1) CaCl2), if the estimated parameters of 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 are used. The two models suffer from the fact that they need to be calibrated against a data set, and some of their parameters are not measurable and cannot be determined independently.

Linkage disequilibrium assessment via log-linear modeling of SNP haplotype frequencies

Analyses of high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, such as genetic mapping and linkage disequilibrium (LD) studies, require phase-known haplotypes to allow for the correlation between tightly linked loci. However, current SNP genotyping technology cannot determine phase, which must be inferred statistically. In this paper, we present a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for population haplotype frequency estimation, particulary in the context of LD assessment. The novel feature of the method is the incorporation of a log-linear prior model for population haplotype frequencies. We present simulations to suggest that 1) the log-linear prior model is more appropriate than the standard coalescent process in the presence of recombination (>0.02cM between adjacent loci), and 2) there is substantial inflation in measures of LD obtained by a "two-stage" approach to the analysis by treating the "best" haplotype configuration as correct, without regard to uncertainty in the recombination process. Genet Epidemiol 25:106-114, 2003. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis, this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the original series are compared to forecasts based on logs. For a range of economic variables, substantial forecasting improvements from taking logs are found if the log transformation actually stabilizes the variance of the underlying series. Using logs can be damaging for the forecast precision if a stable variance is not achieved.

Linear vs. log-linear unit-root specification: an application of mis-specification encompassing

The objective of this paper is to apply the mis-specification (M-S) encompassing perspective to the problem of choosing between linear and log-linear unit-root models. A simple M-S encompassing test, based on an auxiliary regression stemming from the conditional second moment, is proposed and its empirical size and power are investigated using Monte Carlo simulations. It is shown that by focusing on the conditional process the sampling distributions of the relevant statistics are well behaved under both the null and alternative hypotheses. The proposed M-S encompassing test is illustrated using US total disposable income quarterly data.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones

The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been given to this important property. This study investigates and quantifies the seriality of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere using a point-process approach. A possible mechanism for serial clustering is the time-varying effect of the large-scale flow on individual cyclone tracks. Another mechanism is the generation by one parent cyclone of one or more offspring through secondary cyclogenesis. A long cyclone-track database was constructed for extended October March winters from 1950 to 2003 using 6-h analyses of 850-mb relative vorticity derived from the NCEP NCAR reanalysis. A dispersion statistic based on the varianceto- mean ratio of monthly cyclone counts was used as a measure of clustering. It reveals extensive regions of statistically significant clustering in the European exit region of the North Atlantic storm track and over the central North Pacific. Monthly cyclone counts were regressed on time-varying teleconnection indices with a log-linear Poisson model. Five independent teleconnection patterns were found to be significant factors over Europe: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the east Atlantic western Russian pattern, and the polar Eurasian pattern. The NAO alone is not sufficient for explaining the variability of cyclone counts in the North Atlantic region and western Europe. Rate dependence on time-varying teleconnection indices accounts for the variability in monthly cyclone counts, and a cluster process did not need to be invoked.

Structure of turbulent flow over arrays of cubical roughness

The structure of turbulent flow over large roughness consisting of regular arrays of cubical obstacles is investigated numerically under constant pressure gradient conditions. Results are analysed in terms of first- and second-order statistics, by visualization of instantaneous flow fields and by conditional averaging. The accuracy of the simulations is established by detailed comparisons of first- and second-order statistics with wind-tunnel measurements. Coherent structures in the log region are investigated. Structure angles are computed from two-point correlations, and quadrant analysis is performed to determine the relative importance of Q2 and Q4 events (ejections and sweeps) as a function of height above the roughness. Flow visualization shows the existence of low-momentum regions (LMRs) as well as vortical structures throughout the log layer. Filtering techniques are used to reveal instantaneous examples of the association of the vortices with the LMRs, and linear stochastic estimation and conditional averaging are employed to deduce their statistical properties. The conditional averaging results reveal the presence of LMRs and regions of Q2 and Q4 events that appear to be associated with hairpin-like vortices, but a quantitative correspondence between the sizes of the vortices and those of the LMRs is difficult to establish; a simple estimate of the ratio of the vortex width to the LMR width gives a value that is several times larger than the corresponding ratio over smooth walls. The shape and inclination of the vortices and their spatial organization are compared to recent findings over smooth walls. Characteristic length scales are shown to scale linearly with height in the log region. Whilst there are striking qualitative similarities with smooth walls, there are also important differences in detail regarding: (i) structure angles and sizes and their dependence on distance from the rough surface; (ii) the flow structure close to the roughness; (iii) the roles of inflows into and outflows from cavities within the roughness; (iv) larger vortices on the rough wall compared to the smooth wall; (v) the effect of the different generation mechanism at the wall in setting the scales of structures.

Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of the British Association for Biological Anthropology and Osteoarchaeology, Department of Archaeology, University of Reading

The Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of the British Association for Biological Anthropology and Osteoarchaeology (BABAO) held at the University of Reading in 2007. Contents: 1) A life course perspective of growing up in medieval London: evidence of sub-adult health from St Mary Spital (London) (Rebecca Redfern and Don Walker); 2) Preservation of non-adult long bones from an almshouse cemetery in the United States dating to the late nineteenth to the early twentieth centuries (Colleen Milligan, Jessica Zotcavage and Norman Sullivan); 3) Childhood oral health: dental palaeopathology of Kellis 2, Dakhleh, Egypt. A preliminary investigation (Stephanie Shukrum and JE Molto); 4) Skeletal manifestation of non-adult scurvy from early medieval Northumbria: the Black Gate cemetery, Newcastle-upon-Tyne (Diana Mahoney-Swales and Pia Nystrom); 5) Infantile cortical hyperostosis: cases, causes and contradictions (Mary Lewis and Rebecca Gowland); 6) Biological Anthropology Tuberculosis of the hip in the Victorian Britain (Benjamin Clarke and Piers Mitchell); 7) The re-analysis of Iron Age human skeletal material from Winnall Down (Justine Tracey); 8) Can we estimate post-mortem interval from an individual body part? A field study using sus scrofa (Branka Franicevec and Robert Pastor); 9) The expression of asymmetry in hand bones from the medieval cemetery at Écija, Spain (Lisa Cashmore and Sonia Zakrezewski); 10) Returning remains: a curator’s view (Quinton Carroll); 11) Authority and decision making over British human remains: issues and challenges (Piotr Bienkowski and Malcolm Chapman); 12) Ethical dimensions of reburial, retention and repatriation of archaeological human remains: a British perspective (Simon Mays and Martin Smith); 13) The problem of provenace: inaccuracies, changes and misconceptions (Margaret Clegg); 14) Native American human remains in UK collections: implications of NAGPRA to consultation, repatriation, and policy development (Myra J Giesen); 15) Repatriation – a view from the receiving end: New Zealand (Nancy Tayles).

A preliminary investigation into the use of ochre as a remedial amendment in arsenic-contaminated soils

Ochre is an unwanted waste product that accumulates in wetlands and streams draining abandoned coal and metal mines. A potential commercial use for ochre is to remediate As contaminated soil. Arsenic contaminated soil (605 mg kg(-1)) was mixed with different ochres (A, B and C) in a mass ratio of 1:1 and shaken in 20 mL of deionised water. After 72 h As concentration in solution was ca. 500 mu g kg(-1) in the control and 1-2.5 mu g kg(-1) in the ochre treated experiments. In a second experiment soil:ochre mixtures of 0.05-1:1 were shaken in 20 mL of deionised water for 24 h. For Ochres A and C, as Solution concentration was reduced to ca. 1 mu gkg(-1) by 0.2-1:1 ochre:soil mixtures. For Ochre B, as concentration only reached ca. 1 mu g kg(-1) in the 1:1 ochre:soil inix. Sorption of As was best modelled by a Freundlich isotherm using As sorption per mass of goethite in the ochre (log K= 1.64, n = 0.79, R-2 = 0.76, p <= 0.001). Efficiency of ochre in removing As from solution increased with increasing total Fe, goethite, citrate dithionite extractable Fe and surface area. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uptake Pathways of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in White Clover

An understanding of the primary pathways of plant uptake of organic pollutants is important to enable the risks from crops grown on contaminated soils to be assessed. A series of experiments were undertaken to quantify the importance of the pathways of contamination and the Subsequent transport within the plant using white clover plants grown in solution culture. Root uptake was primarily an absorption process, but a component of the contamination was a result of the transpiration flux to the shoot for higher Solubility compounds. The root contamination can be easily predicted using a simple relationship with K-OW, although if a composition model was used based on lipid content, a significant under prediction of the contamination was observed. Shoot uptake was driven by the transpiration stream flux which was related to the solubility of the individual PAH rather than the K-OW. However, the experiment was over a short duration, 6 days, and models based on K-OW may be better for crops grown in the field where the vegetation will approach equilibrium and transpiration cannot easily be measured, A significant fraction of the shoot contamination resulted from aerial deposition derived from volatilized PAH. This pathway was more significant for compounds approaching log K-OA > 9 and log K-AW < -3. The shoot uptake pathways need further investigation to enable them to be modeled separately, There was no evidence of significant systemic transport of the PAR so transfer outside the transpiration stream is likely to be limited.

Zinc sorption in selected soils

The adsorption of nutrient elements is one of the most important solid- and liquid-phase interactions determining the retention and release of applied plant nutrients and the efficiency of fertilization. The study showed that the soils with high cation exchange capacity (CEC), CaCO3 , organic matter contents, and heavy texture adsorbed more zinc (Zn). The alkaline soils from Pakistan adsorbed more Zn than English acidic soils. Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm fit was excellent, and r(2) values for the Langmuir isotherm were highly significant (r(2) =0.84 to 0.99). The Langmuir b values, representing the adsorptive capacity of a soil, increased as the texture fineness increased in the soil, with increases in the concentration of adsorptive material (such as organic matter and CaCO3) and with increases in CEC and pH. The alkaline soils from Pakistan had higher bonding energy constant and higher log Kf values than the acidic English soils. Sequential extraction of Zn in these soils showed that most of the Zn was held in CaCO3 pool in the alkaline soils, whereas in acidic soils adsorbed Zn was in exchangeable form.

Sonic to ultrasonic Q of sandstones and limestones: Laboratory measurements at in situ pressures

Laboratory measurements of the attenuation and velocity dispersion of compressional and shear waves at appropriate frequencies, pressures, and temperatures can aid interpretation of seismic and well-log surveys as well as indicate absorption mechanisms in rocks. Construction and calibration of resonant-bar equipment was used to measure velocities and attenuations of standing shear and extensional waves in copper-jacketed right cylinders of rocks (30 cm in length, 2.54 cm in diameter) in the sonic frequency range and at differential pressures up to 65 MPa. We also measured ultrasonic velocities and attenuations of compressional and shear waves in 50-mm-diameter samples of the rocks at identical pressures. Extensional-mode velocities determined from the resonant bar are systematically too low, yielding unreliable Poisson's ratios. Poisson's ratios determined from the ultrasonic data are frequency corrected and used to calculate the sonic-frequency compressional-wave velocities and attenuations from the shear- and extensional-mode data. We calculate the bulk-modulus loss. The accuracies of attenuation data (expressed as 1000/Q, where Q is the quality factor) are +/- 1 for compressional and shear waves at ultrasonic frequency, +/- 1 for shear waves, and +/- 3 for compressional waves at sonic frequency. Example sonic-frequency data show that the energy absorption in a limestone is small (Q(P) greater than 200 and stress independent) and is primarily due to poroelasticity, whereas that in the two sandstones is variable in magnitude (Q(P) ranges from less than 50 to greater than 300, at reservoir pressures) and arises from a combination of poroelasticity and viscoelasticity. A graph of compressional-wave attenuation versus compressional-wave velocity at reservoir pressures differentiates high-permeability (> 100 mD, 9.87 X 10(-14) m(2)) brine-saturated sandstones from low-permeability (< 100 mD, 9.87 X 10 (14) m(2)) sandstones and shales.