Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature

We perform a multimodel detection and attribution study with climate model simulation output and satellite-based measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature change. We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This multimodel archive provides estimates of the signal pattern in response to combined anthropogenic and natural external forcing (the finger-print) and the noise of internally generated variability. Using these estimates, we calculate signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios to quantify the strength of the fingerprint in the observations relative to fingerprint strength in natural climate noise. For changes in lower stratospheric temperature between 1979 and 2011, S/N ratios vary from 26 to 36, depending on the choice of observational dataset. In the lower troposphere, the fingerprint strength in observations is smaller, but S/N ratios are still significant at the 1% level or better, and range from three to eight. We find no evidence that these ratios are spuriously inflated by model variability errors. After removing all global mean signals, model fingerprints remain identifiable in 70% of the tests involving tropospheric temperature changes. Despite such agreement in the large-scale features of model and observed geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change, most models do not replicate the size of the observed changes. On average, the models analyzed underestimate the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear, model biases in lower stratospheric temperature trends are likely to be reduced by more realistic treatment of stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosol forcing.

Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown

It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims.

Structural characterization of a new crystal form of the four-way Holliday junction formed by the DNA sequence d(CCGGTACCGG)2: sequence versus lattice?

DNA-strand exchange is a vital step in the recombination process, of which a key intermediate is the four-way DNA Holliday junction formed transiently in most living organisms. Here, the single-crystal structure at a resolution of 2.35 Å of such a DNA junction formed by d(CCGGTACCGG)2, which has crystallized in a more highly symmetrical packing mode to that previously observed for the same sequence, is presented. In this case, the structure is isomorphous to the mismatch sequence d(CCGGGACCGG)2, which reveals the roles of both lattice and DNA sequence in determining the junction geometry. The helices cross at the larger angle of 43.0° (the previously observed angle for this sequence was 41.4°) as a right-handed X. No metal cations were observed; the crystals were grown in the presence of only group I counter-cations.