Assessing the date of the global oil peak: the need to use 2P reserves

Combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable ('2P') oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited peak of conventional oil production. The data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close. Many analysts who rely only on proved ('1P') oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion. But proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries, being variously under-reported, over-reported and not reported. Reliance on 1P data has led to a number of misconceptions, including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect, that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain, and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to 'turn resources into reserves'. These misconceptions have been widely held, including within academia, governments, some oil companies, and organisations such as the IEA. In addition to conventional oil, the world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil. Most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non-conventional oils are unlikely to come on-stream fast enough to offset conventional's decline. To determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non-conventional oils, as well as oil from gas, coal and biomass, and of oil substitution. Such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead-times, as well as rate constraints on investment, pollution, and net-energy return. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and application of a novel algorithm for steady-state optimising control using dynamic information

A novel optimising controller is designed that leads a slow process from a sub-optimal operational condition to the steady-state optimum in a continuous way based on dynamic information. Using standard results from optimisation theory and discrete optimal control, the solution of a steady-state optimisation problem is achieved by solving a receding-horizon optimal control problem which uses derivative and state information from the plant via a shadow model and a state-space identifier. The paper analyzes the steady-state optimality of the procedure, develops algorithms with and without control rate constraints and applies the procedure to a high fidelity simulation study of a distillation column optimisation.

Periodic time series modeling of environmental proxy records with guaranteed positive growth rate estimation

Identifying a periodic time-series model from environmental records, without imposing the positivity of the growth rate, does not necessarily respect the time order of the data observations. Consequently, subsequent observations, sampled in the environmental archive, can be inversed on the time axis, resulting in a non-physical signal model. In this paper an optimization technique with linear constraints on the signal model parameters is proposed that prevents time inversions. The activation conditions for this constrained optimization are based upon the physical constraint of the growth rate, namely, that it cannot take values smaller than zero. The actual constraints are defined for polynomials and first-order splines as basis functions for the nonlinear contribution in the distance-time relationship. The method is compared with an existing method that eliminates the time inversions, and its noise sensitivity is tested by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the usefulness of the method is demonstrated on the measurements of the vessel density, in a mangrove tree, Rhizophora mucronata, and the measurement of Mg/Ca ratios, in a bivalve, Mytilus trossulus.

The maximum rate of mammal evolution

How fast can a mammal evolve from the size of a mouse to the size of an elephant? Achieving such a large transformation calls for major biological reorganization. Thus, the speed at which this occurs has important implications for extensive faunal changes, including adaptive radiations and recovery from mass extinctions. To quantify the pace of large-scale evolution we developed a metric, clade maximum rate, which represents the maximum evolutionary rate of a trait within a clade. We applied this metric to body mass evolution in mammals over the last 70 million years, during which multiple large evolutionary transitions occurred in oceans and on continents and islands. Our computations suggest that it took a minimum of 1.6, 5.1, and 10 million generations for terrestrial mammal mass to increase 100-, and 1,000-, and 5,000- fold, respectively. Values for whales were down to half the length (i.e., 1.1, 3, and 5 million generations), perhaps due to the reduced mechanical constraints of living in an aquatic environment. When differences in generation time are considered, we find an exponential increase in maximum mammal body mass during the 35 million years following the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event. Our results also indicate a basic asymmetry in macroevolution: very large decreases (such as extreme insular dwarfism) can happen at more than 10 times the rate of increases. Our findings allow more rigorous comparisons of microevolutionary and macroevolutionary patterns and processes. Keywords: haldanes, biological time, scaling, pedomorphosis

Constraints on the spectral distribution of energy and enstrophy dissipation in forced two-dimensional turbulence

We study two-dimensional (2D) turbulence in a doubly periodic domain driven by a monoscale-like forcing and damped by various dissipation mechanisms of the form νμ(−Δ)μ. By “monoscale-like” we mean that the forcing is applied over a finite range of wavenumbers kmin≤k≤kmax, and that the ratio of enstrophy injection η≥0 to energy injection ε≥0 is bounded by kmin2ε≤η≤kmax2ε. Such a forcing is frequently considered in theoretical and numerical studies of 2D turbulence. It is shown that for μ≥0 the asymptotic behaviour satisfies ∥u∥12≤kmax2∥u∥2, where ∥u∥2 and ∥u∥12 are the energy and enstrophy, respectively. If the condition of monoscale-like forcing holds only in a time-mean sense, then the inequality holds in the time mean. It is also shown that for Navier–Stokes turbulence (μ=1), the time-mean enstrophy dissipation rate is bounded from above by 2ν1kmax2. These results place strong constraints on the spectral distribution of energy and enstrophy and of their dissipation, and thereby on the existence of energy and enstrophy cascades, in such systems. In particular, the classical dual cascade picture is shown to be invalid for forced 2D Navier–Stokes turbulence (μ=1) when it is forced in this manner. Inclusion of Ekman drag (μ=0) along with molecular viscosity permits a dual cascade, but is incompatible with the log-modified −3 power law for the energy spectrum in the enstrophy-cascading inertial range. In order to achieve the latter, it is necessary to invoke an inverse viscosity (μ<0). These constraints on permissible power laws apply for any spectrally localized forcing, not just for monoscale-like forcing.

Cross-layer design for multiuser MIMO MRC systems with feedback constraints

Cross-layer techniques represent efficient means to enhance throughput and increase the transmission reliability of wireless communication systems. In this paper, a cross-layer design of aggressive adaptive modulation and coding (A-AMC), truncated automatic repeat request (T-ARQ), and user scheduling is proposed for multiuser multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) maximal ratio combining (MRC) systems, where the impacts of feedback delay (FD) and limited feedback (LF) on channel state information (CSI) are also considered. The A-AMC and T-ARQ mechanism selects the appropriate modulation and coding schemes (MCSs) to achieve higher spectral efficiency while satisfying the service requirement on the packet loss rate (PLR), profiting from the feasibility of using different MCSs to retransmit a packet, which is destined to a scheduled user selected to exploit multiuser diversity and enhance the system's performance in terms of both transmission efficiency and fairness. The system's performance is evaluated in terms of the average PLR, average spectral efficiency (ASE), outage probability, and average packet delay, which are derived in closed form, considering transmissions over Rayleigh-fading channels. Numerical results and comparisons are provided and show that A-AMC combined with T-ARQ yields higher spectral efficiency than the conventional scheme based on adaptive modulation and coding (AMC), while keeping the achieved PLR closer to the system's requirement and reducing delay. Furthermore, the effects of the number of ARQ retransmissions, numbers of transmit and receive antennas, normalized FD, and cardinality of the beamforming weight vector codebook are studied and discussed.

Experimental evolution for generalists and specialists reveals multivariate genetic constraints on thermal reaction norms

Theory predicts the emergence of generalists in variable environments and antagonistic pleiotropy to favour specialists in constant environments, but empirical data seldom support such generalist–specialist trade-offs. We selected for generalists and specialists in the dung fly Sepsis punctum (Diptera: Sepsidae) under conditions that we predicted would reveal antagonistic pleiotropy and multivariate trade-offs underlying thermal reaction norms for juvenile development. We performed replicated laboratory evolution using four treatments: adaptation at a hot (31 °C) or a cold (15 °C) temperature, or under regimes fluctuating between these temperatures, either within or between generations. After 20 generations, we assessed parental effects and genetic responses of thermal reaction norms for three correlated life-history traits: size at maturity, juvenile growth rate and juvenile survival. We find evidence for antagonistic pleiotropy for performance at hot and cold temperatures, and a temperature-mediated trade-off between juvenile survival and size at maturity, suggesting that trade-offs associated with environmental tolerance can arise via intensified evolutionary compromises between genetically correlated traits. However, despite this antagonistic pleiotropy, we found no support for the evolution of increased thermal tolerance breadth at the expense of reduced maximal performance, suggesting low genetic variance in the generalist–specialist dimension.