A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.

A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.

Intercomparison of radiative forcing calculations of stratospheric water vapour and contrails

Seven groups have participated in an intercomparison study of calculations of radiative forcing (RF) due to stratospheric water vapour (SWV) and contrails. A combination of detailed radiative transfer schemes and codes for global-scale calculations have been used, as well as a combination of idealized simulations and more realistic global-scale changes in stratospheric water vapour and contrails. Detailed line-by-line codes agree within about 15 % for longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) RF, except in one case where the difference is 30 %. Since the LW and SW RF due to contrails and SWV changes are of opposite sign, the differences between the models seen in the individual LW and SW components can be either compensated or strengthened in the net RF, and thus in relative terms uncertainties are much larger for the net RF. Some of the models used for global-scale simulations of changes in SWV and contrails differ substantially in RF from the more detailed radiative transfer schemes. For the global-scale calculations we use a method of weighting the results to calculate a best estimate based on their performance compared to the more detailed radiative transfer schemes in the idealized simulations.

Rap1-Rac1 circuits potentiate platelet activation.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to investigate the potential crosstalk between Rap1 and Rac1, 2 small GTPases central to platelet activation, particularly downstream of the collagen receptor GPVI. METHODS AND RESULTS: We compared the activation response of platelets with impaired Rap signaling (double knock-out; deficient in both the guanine nucleotide exchange factor, CalDAG-GEFI, and the Gi-coupled receptor for ADP, P2Y12), to that of wild-type platelets treated with a small-molecule Rac inhibitor, EHT 1864 (wild-type /EHT). We found that Rac1 is sequentially activated downstream of Rap1 on stimulation via GPVI. In return, Rac1 provides important feedback for both CalDAG-GEFI- and P2Y12-dependent activation of Rap1. When analyzing platelet responses controlled by Rac1, we observed (1) impaired lamellipodia formation, clot retraction, and granule release in both double knock-out and EHT 1864-treated wild-type platelets; and (2) reduced calcium store release in EHT 1864-treated wild-type but not double knock-out platelets. Consistent with the latter finding, we identified 2 pools of Rac1, one activated immediately downstream of GPVI and 1 activated downstream of Rap1. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate important crosstalk between Rap1 and Rac1 downstream of GPVI. Whereas Rap1 signaling directly controls sustained Rac1 activation, Rac1 affects CalDAG-GEFI- and P2Y12-dependent Rap1 activation via its role in calcium mobilization and granule/ADP release, respectively.

A methodology for in-situ and remote sensing of microphysical and radiative properties of contrails as they evolve into cirrus

Contrails and especially their evolution into cirrus-like clouds are thought to have very important effects on local and global radiation budgets, though are generally not well represented in global climate models. Lack of contrail parameterisations is due to the limited availability of in situ contrail measurements which are difficult to obtain. Here we present a methodology for successful sampling and interpretation of contrail microphysical and radiative data using both in situ and remote sensing instrumentation on board the FAAM BAe146 UK research aircraft as part of the COntrails Spreading Into Cirrus (COSIC) study.

Parameterization of contrails in the UK Met Office Climate Model

Persistent contrails are believed to currently have a relatively small but significant positive radiative forcing on climate. With air travel predicted to continue its rapid growth over the coming years, the contrail warming effect on climate is expected to increase. Nevertheless, there remains a high level of uncertainty in the current estimates of contrail radiative forcing. Contrail formation depends mostly on the aircraft flying in cold and moist enough air masses. Most studies to date have relied on simple parameterizations using averaged meteorological conditions. In this paper we take into account the short‐term variability in background cloudiness by developing an on‐line contrail parameterization for the UK Met Office climate model. With this parameterization, we estimate that for the air traffic of year 2002 the global mean annual linear contrail coverage was approximately 0.11%. Assuming a global mean contrail optical depth of 0.2 or smaller and assuming hexagonal ice crystals, the corresponding contrail radiative forcing was calculated to be less than 10 mW m−2 in all‐sky conditions. We find that the natural cloud masking effect on contrails may be significantly higher than previously believed. This new result is explained by the fact that contrails seem to preferentially form in cloudy conditions, which ameliorates their overall climate impact by approximately 40%.

Natural aerosol direct and indirect radiative effects

Natural aerosol plays a significant role in the Earth’s system due to its ability to alter the radiative balance of the Earth. Here we use a global aerosol microphysics model together with a radiative transfer model to estimate radiative effects for five natural aerosol sources in the present-day atmosphere: dimethyl sulfide (DMS), sea-salt, volcanoes, monoterpenes, and wildfires. We calculate large annual global mean aerosol direct and cloud albedo effects especially for DMS-derived sulfate (–0.23 Wm–2 and –0.76 Wm–2, respectively), volcanic sulfate (–0.21 Wm–2 and –0.61 Wm–2) and sea-salt (–0.44 Wm–2 and –0.04 Wm–2). The cloud albedo effect responds nonlinearly to changes in emission source strengths. The natural sources have both markedly different radiative efficiencies and indirect/direct radiative effect ratios. Aerosol sources that contribute a large number of small particles (DMS-derived and volcanic sulfate) are highly effective at influencing cloud albedo per unit of aerosol mass burden.

Expression of the Rap1 guanine nucleotide exchange factor, MR-GEF, is altered in individuals with bipolar disorder

In the rodent forebrain GABAergic neurons are generated from progenitor cells that express the transcription factors Dlx1 and Dlx2. The Rap-1 guanine nucleotide exchange factor, MR-GEF, is turned on by many of these developing GABAergic neurons. Expression of both Dlx1/2 and MR-GEF is retained in both adult mouse and human forebrain where, in human, decreased Dlx1 expression has been associated with psychosis. Using in situ hybridization studies we show that MR-GEF expression is significantly down-regulated in the forebrain of Dlx1/2 double mutant mice suggesting that MR-GEF and Dlx1/2 form part of a common signalling pathway during GABAergic neuronal development. We therefore compared MR-GEF expression by in situ hybridization in individuals with major psychiatric disorders (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, major depression) and control individuals. We observed a significant positive correlation between layers II and IV of the dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) in the percentage of MR-GEF expressing neurons in individuals with bipolar disorder, but not in individuals with schizophrenia, major depressive disorder or in controls. Since MR-GEF encodes a Rap1 GEF able to activate G-protein signalling, we suggest that changes in MR-GEF expression could potentially influence neurotransmission.

How is the balance of a forecast ensemble affected by adaptive and non-adaptive localization schemes?

This paper investigates the effect on balance of a number of Schur product-type localization schemes which have been designed with the primary function of reducing spurious far-field correlations in forecast error statistics. The localization schemes studied comprise a non-adaptive scheme (where the moderation matrix is decomposed in a spectral basis), and two adaptive schemes, namely a simplified version of SENCORP (Smoothed ENsemble COrrelations Raised to a Power) and ECO-RAP (Ensemble COrrelations Raised to A Power). The paper shows, we believe for the first time, how the degree of balance (geostrophic and hydrostatic) implied by the error covariance matrices localized by these schemes can be diagnosed. Here it is considered that an effective localization scheme is one that reduces spurious correlations adequately but also minimizes disruption of balance (where the 'correct' degree of balance or imbalance is assumed to be possessed by the unlocalized ensemble). By varying free parameters that describe each scheme (e.g. the degree of truncation in the schemes that use the spectral basis, the 'order' of each scheme, and the degree of ensemble smoothing), it is found that a particular configuration of the ECO-RAP scheme is best suited to the convective-scale system studied. According to our diagnostics this ECO-RAP configuration still weakens geostrophic and hydrostatic balance, but overall this is less so than for other schemes.

Selective environmental stress caused by magmatic sulfur emissions from continental flood basalt eruptions

Several biotic crises during the past 300 million years have been linked to episodes of continental flood basalt volcanism, and in particular to the release of massive quantities of magmatic sulphur gas species. Flood basalt provinces were typically formed by numerous individual eruptions, each lasting years to decades. However, the environmental impact of these eruptions may have been limited by the occurrence of quiescent periods that lasted hundreds to thousands of years. Here we use a global aerosol model to quantify the sulphur-induced environmental effects of individual, decade-long flood basalt eruptions representative of the Columbia River Basalt Group, 16.5–14.5 million years ago, and the Deccan Traps, 65 million years ago. For a decade-long eruption of Deccan scale, we calculate a decadal-mean reduction in global surface temperature of 4.5 K, which would recover within 50 years after an eruption ceased unless climate feedbacks were very different in deep-time climates. Acid mists and fogs could have caused immediate damage to vegetation in some regions, but acid-sensitive land and marine ecosystems were well-buffered against volcanic sulphur deposition effects even during century-long eruptions. We conclude that magmatic sulphur from flood basalt eruptions would have caused a biotic crisis only if eruption frequencies and lava discharge rates had been high and sustained for several centuries at a time.