Modelling the hydraulics of the Carlisle 2005 flood event

The performance of a 2D numerical model of flood hydraulics is tested for a major event in Carlisle, UK, in 2005. This event is associated with a unique data set, with GPS surveyed wrack lines and flood extent surveyed 3 weeks after the flood. The Simple Finite Volume (SFV) model is used to solve the 2D Saint-Venant equations over an unstructured mesh of 30000 elements representing channel and floodplain, and allowing detailed hydraulics of flow around bridge piers and other influential features to be represented. The SFV model is also used to corroborate flows recorded for the event at two gauging stations. Calibration of Manning's n is performed with a two stage strategy, with channel values determined by calibration of the gauging station models, and floodplain values determined by optimising the fit between model results and observed water levels and flood extent for the 2005 event. RMS error for the calibrated model compared with surveyed water levels is ~±0.4m, the same order of magnitude as the estimated error in the survey data. The study demonstrates the ability of unstructured mesh hydraulic models to represent important hydraulic processes across a range of scales, with potential applications to flood risk management.

Characterising errors in airborne laser altimetry data to extract soil roughness

Airborne laser altimetry has the potential to make frequent detailed observations that are important for many aspects of studying land surface processes. However, the uncertainties inherent in airborne laser altimetry data have rarely been well measured. Uncertainty is often specified as generally as 20cm in elevation, and 40cm planimetric. To better constrain these uncertainties, we present an analysis of several datasets acquired specifically to study the temporal consistency of laser altimetry data, and thus assess its operational value. The error budget has three main components, each with a time regime. For measurements acquired less than 50ms apart, elevations have a local standard deviation in height of 3.5cm, enabling the local measurement of surface roughness of the order of 5cm. Points acquired seconds apart acquire an additional random error due to Differential Geographic Positioning System (DGPS) fluctuation. Measurements made up to an hour apart show an elevation drift of 7cm over a half hour. Over months, this drift gives rise to a random elevation offset between swathes, with an average of 6.4cm. The RMS planimetric error in point location was derived as 37.4cm. We conclude by considering the consequences of these uncertainties on the principle application of laser altimetry in the UK, intertidal zone monitoring.

Consistent approximate models of the global atmosphere: shallow, deep, hydrostatic, quasi-hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic

We study global atmosphere models that are at least as accurate as the hydrostatic primitive equations (HPEs), reviewing known results and reporting some new ones. The HPEs make spherical geopotential and shallow atmosphere approximations in addition to the hydrostatic approximation. As is well known, a consistent application of the shallow atmosphere approximation requires omission of those Coriolis terms that vary as the cosine of latitude and of certain other terms in the components of the momentum equation. An approximate model is here regarded as consistent if it formally preserves conservation principles for axial angular momentum, energy and potential vorticity, and (following R. Müller) if its momentum component equations have Lagrange's form. Within these criteria, four consistent approximate global models, including the HPEs themselves, are identified in a height-coordinate framework. The four models, each of which includes the spherical geopotential approximation, correspond to whether the shallow atmosphere and hydrostatic (or quasi-hydrostatic) approximations are individually made or not made. Restrictions on representing the spatial variation of apparent gravity occur. Solution methods and the situation in a pressure-coordinate framework are discussed. © Crown copyright 2005.

A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s−1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s−1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Niño can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.

Vibrational energy levels of water

Several quartic force fields and a full sextic anharmonic force field for H,O have been determined from high-quality ab initio calculations, the highest at the aug-cc-pVQZ CCSD(T) level of theory. These force fields have been used to determine vibrational excited state band origins up to 15 000 cm - ’ above the zero-point level, using both a perturbation-resonancea pproach and a variational approach. An optimisedq uartic force field hasb eeno btained by least squares refinement of our best ab initio results to fit the observed overtone levels of 5 symmetrically substituted isotopomers of water (Hi60, Hi70, HisO, D,O, and T,O) with an rms error of less than 10 cm-‘, using the perturbation-resonancem odel for the vibrational calculation. Predicatel east squaresr efinement was usedt o provide a loose constraint of the refined force field to the ab initio results. The results obtained prove the viability of the perturbation-resonancem odel for usei n larger molecular systemsa nd also highlight someo f its weaknesse

A refined quartic forcefield for acetylene: accurate calculation of the vibrational spectrum

It is now possible to calculate the nine-dimensional rovibrational wavefunctions of sequentially bonded four-atom molecules variationally without dynamical approximation. In the case of HCCH, the simplest such molecule, many hundreds of rovibrational (J = 0, 1, 2) levels can be converged to better than 1.5 cm −1. Variational calculations of this kind are used here systematically to refine the well-known quartic valence-coordinate forcefleld of Strey and Mills [J.Mol. Spectrosc.59, 103-115 (1976)] against experimental term values up to three C-H stretch quanta for the principal and two deuterated isotopomers, yielding a new surface that reproduces the energies of all the known Σ, Π, and Δ states of these species up to the energy of two C-H stretch quanta with an rms error of 3 cm−1 . The refined forcefield is used to study the resonances associated with the accidental degeneracies (ν2 + ν4 + ν5, ν3) and (ν2 + 2ν5, ν1) in the principal isotopomer, leading to a clarification of the assignment of she experimentally detected states in the 2ν3 and 3ν3, polyads, and to the finding that vibrational Coriolis (kinetic energy) terms, rather than quartic anharmonicities in the potential, are the primary cause of the resonant interactions. Using a new cubic ab initio electric dipole field to calculate IR absorption coefficients, 24 undetected Σ and Π states of 1H12C12C1H and 5 undetected Σ states of D12C12CD are identified as candidates for experimental study, and their calculated energies and assignments are given.

Use of a novel Hill-climbing genetic algorithm in protein folding simulations

We have developed a novel Hill-climbing genetic algorithm (GA) for simulation of protein folding. The program (written in C) builds a set of Cartesian points to represent an unfolded polypeptide's backbone. The dihedral angles determining the chain's configuration are stored in an array of chromosome structures that is copied and then mutated. The fitness of the mutated chain's configuration is determined by its radius of gyration. A four-helix bundle was used to optimise simulation conditions, and the program was compared with other, larger, genetic algorithms on a variety of structures. The program ran 50% faster than other GA programs. Overall, tests on 100 non-redundant structures gave comparable results to other genetic algorithms, with the Hill-climbing program running from between 20 and 50% faster. Examples including crambin, cytochrome c, cytochrome B and hemerythrin gave good secondary structure fits with overall alpha carbon atom rms deviations of between 5 and 5.6 Angstrom with an optimised hydrophobic term in the fitness function. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in continuously profiling the thermodynamic state of the boundary layer: integration of measurements and methods

This paper describes advances in ground-based thermodynamic profiling of the lower troposphere through sensor synergy. The well-documented integrated profiling technique (IPT), which uses a microwave profiler, a cloud radar, and a ceilometer to simultaneously retrieve vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and liquid water content (LWC) of nonprecipitating clouds, is further developed toward an enhanced performance in the boundary layer and lower troposphere. For a more accurate temperature profile, this is accomplished by including an elevation scanning measurement modus of the microwave profiler. Height-dependent RMS accuracies of temperature (humidity) ranging from 0.3 to 0.9 K (0.5–0.8 g m−3) in the boundary layer are derived from retrieval simulations and confirmed experimentally with measurements at distinct heights taken during the 2005 International Lindenberg Campaign for Assessment of Humidity and Cloud Profiling Systems and its Impact on High-Resolution Modeling (LAUNCH) of the German Weather Service. Temperature inversions, especially of the lower boundary layer, are captured in a very satisfactory way by using the elevation scanning mode. To improve the quality of liquid water content measurements in clouds the authors incorporate a sophisticated target classification scheme developed within the European cloud observing network CloudNet. It allows the detailed discrimination between different types of backscatterers detected by cloud radar and ceilometer. Finally, to allow IPT application also to drizzling cases, an LWC profiling method is integrated. This technique classifies the detected hydrometeors into three different size classes using certain thresholds determined by radar reflectivity and/or ceilometer extinction profiles. By inclusion into IPT, the retrieved profiles are made consistent with the measurements of the microwave profiler and an LWC a priori profile. Results of IPT application to 13 days of the LAUNCH campaign are analyzed, and the importance of integrated profiling for model evaluation is underlined.

Europe’s biocidal products directive: benefits and costs in urban pest management

The European Commission’s Biocidal Products Directive (Council Directive 98/8 EC), known as the BPD, is the largest regulatory exercise ever to affect the urban pest control industry. Although focussed in the European Union its impact is global because any company selling pest control products in the EU must follow its principles. All active substances, belonging to 23 different biocidal product types, come within the Directive’s scope of regulatory control. This will eventually involve re-registration of all existing products, as well as affecting any new product that comes to the market. Some active substances, such as the rodenticides and insecticides, are already highly regulated in Europe but others, such as embalming fluids, masonry preservatives, disinfectants and repellents/attractants will come under intensive regulatory scrutiny for the first time. One of the purposes of the Directive is to offer enhanced protection for human health and the environment. The potential benefit for suppliers of pest control products is mutual recognition of regulatory product dossiers across 25 Member States of the European Union. This process, requiring harmonisation of all regulatory decision-making processes, should reduce duplicated effort and, potentially, allow manufacturers speedier access to European markets. However, the cost to industry is enormous, both in terms of the regulatory resources required to assemble BPD dossiers and the development budgets required to conduct studies to meet its new standards. The cost to regulatory authorities is also tremendous, in terms of the need to upgrade staff capabilities to meet new challenges and the volume of the work expected by the Commission when they are appointed the Rapporteur Member State (RMS) for an active substance. Users of pest control products will pay a price too. The increased regulatory costs of maintaining products in the European market are likely to be passed on, at least in part, to users. Furthermore, where the costs of meeting new regulatory requirements cannot be recouped from product sales, many well-known products may leave the market. For example, it seems that in future few rodenticides that are not anticoagulants will be available within the EU. An understanding of the BPD is essential to those who intend to place urban pest control products on the European market and may be useful to those considering the harmonisation of regulatory processes elsewhere. This paper reviews the operation of the first stages of the BPD for rodenticides, examines the potential benefits and costs of the legislation to the urban pest control industry and looks forward to the next stages of implementation involving all insecticides used in urban pest management.

Quantitative precipitation estimation over ocean using Bayesian approach from microwave observations during the typhoon season

We have developed a new Bayesian approach to retrieve oceanic rain rate from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), with an emphasis on typhoon cases in the West Pacific. Retrieved rain rates are validated with measurements of rain gauges located on Japanese islands. To demonstrate improvement, retrievals are also compared with those from the TRMM/Precipitation Radar (PR), the Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF), and a multi-channel linear regression statistical method (MLRS). We have found that qualitatively, all methods retrieved similar horizontal distributions in terms of locations of eyes and rain bands of typhoons. Quantitatively, our new Bayesian retrievals have the best linearity and the smallest root mean square (RMS) error against rain gauge data for 16 typhoon overpasses in 2004. The correlation coefficient and RMS of our retrievals are 0.95 and ~2 mm hr-1, respectively. In particular, at heavy rain rates, our Bayesian retrievals outperform those retrieved from GPROF and MLRS. Overall, the new Bayesian approach accurately retrieves surface rain rate for typhoon cases. Accurate rain rate estimates from this method can be assimilated in models to improve forecast and prevent potential damages in Taiwan during typhoon seasons.

Boundary-layer friction in midlatitude cyclone

Results from an idealized three-dimensional baroclinic life-cycle model are interpreted in a potential vorticity (PV) framework to identify the physical mechanisms by which frictional processes acting in the atmospheric boundary layer modify and reduce the baroclinic development of a midlatitude storm. Considering a life cycle where the only non-conservative process acting is boundary-layer friction, the rate of change of depth-averaged PV within the boundary layer is governed by frictional generation of PV and the flux of PV into the free troposphere. Frictional generation of PV has two contributions: Ekman generation, which is directly analogous to the well-known Ekman-pumping mechanism for barotropic vortices, and baroclinic generation, which depends on the turning of the wind in the boundary layer and low-level horizontal temperature gradients. It is usually assumed, at least implicitly, that an Ekman process of negative PV generation is the mechanism whereby friction reduces the strength and growth rates of baroclinic systems. Although there is evidence for this mechanism, it is shown that baroclinic generation of PV dominates, producing positive PV anomalies downstream of the low centre, close to developing warm and cold fronts. These PV anomalies are advected by the large-scale warm conveyor belt flow upwards and polewards, fluxed into the troposphere near the warm front, and then advected westwards relative to the system. The result is a thin band of positive PV in the lower troposphere above the surface low centre. This PV is shown to be associated with a positive static stability anomaly, which Rossby edge wave theory suggests reduces the strength of the coupling between the upper- and lower-level PV anomalies, thereby reducing the rate of baroclinic development. This mechanism, which is a result of the baroclinic dynamics in the frontal regions, is in marked contrast with simple barotropic spin-down ideas. Finally we note the implications of these frictionally generated PV anomalies for cyclone forecasting.