Parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in a new water quality model, Q(2)

A new dynamic model of water quality, Q(2), has recently been developed, capable of simulating large branched river systems. This paper describes the application of a generalized sensitivity analysis (GSA) to Q(2) for single reaches of the River Thames in southern England. Focusing on the simulation of dissolved oxygen (DO) (since this may be regarded as a proxy for the overall health of a river); the GSA is used to identify key parameters controlling model behavior and provide a probabilistic procedure for model calibration. It is shown that, in the River Thames at least, it is more important to obtain high quality forcing functions than to obtain improved parameter estimates once approximate values have been estimated. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure reasonable simulation of a range of water quality determinands, since a focus only on DO increases predictive uncertainty in the DO simulations. The Q(2) model has been applied here to the River Thames, but it has a broad utility for evaluating other systems in Europe and around the world.

Modeling the observed proton aurora and ionospheric convection responses to changes in the IMF clock angle: 2. Persistence of ionospheric convection

We apply a numerical model of time-dependent ionospheric convection to two directly driven reconnection pulses during a 15-min interval of southward IMF on 26 November 2000. The model requires an input magnetopause reconnection rate variation, which is here derived from the observed variation in the upstream IMF clock angle, q. The reconnection rate is mapped to an ionospheric merging gap, the MLT extent of which is inferred from the Doppler-shifted Lyman-a emission on newly opened field lines, as observed by the FUV instrument on the IMAGE spacecraft. The model is used to reproduce a variety of features observed during this event: SuperDARN observations of the ionospheric convection pattern and transpolar voltage; FUV observations of the growth of patches of newly opened flux; FUVand in situ observations of the location of the Open-Closed field line Boundary (OCB) and a cusp ion step. We adopt a clock angle dependence of the magnetopause reconnection electric field, mapped to the ionosphere, of the form Enosin4(q/2) and estimate the peak value, Eno, by matching observed and modeled variations of both the latitude, LOCB, of the dayside OCB (as inferred from the equatorward edge of cusp proton emissions seen by FUV) and the transpolar voltage FPC (as derived using the mapped potential technique from SuperDARN HF radar data). This analysis also yields the time constant tOCB with which the open-closed boundary relaxes back toward its equilibrium configuration. For the case studied here, we find tOCB = 9.7 ± 1.3 min, consistent with previous inferences from the observed response of ionospheric flow to southward turnings of the IMF. The analysis confirms quantitatively the concepts of ionospheric flow excitation on which the model is based and explains some otherwise anomalous features of the cusp precipitation morphology.

AT(1) receptor ligands: virtual-screening-based design with TOPP descriptors, synthesis, and biological evaluation of pyrrolidine derivatives

As a continuing effort to establish the structure-activity relationships (SARs) within the series of the angiotensin II antagonists (sartans), a pharmacophoric model was built by using novel TOPP 3D descriptors. Statistical values were satisfactory (PC4: r(2)=0.96, q(2) ((5) (random) (groups))=0.84; SDEP=0.26) and encouraged the synthesis and consequent biological evaluation of a series of new pyrrolidine derivatives. SAR together with a combined 3D quantitative SAR and high-throughput virtual screening showed that the newly synthesized 1-acyl-N-(biphenyl-4-ylmethyl)pyrrolidine-2-carboxamides may represent an interesting starting point for the design of new antihypertensive agents. In particular, biological tests performed on CHO-hAT(1) cells stably expressing the human AT(1) receptor showed that the length of the acyl chain is crucial for the receptor interaction and that the valeric chain is the optimal one.

Oxovanadium(V) complexes of bis(phenolate) ligands with acetylacetone as co-ligand: synthesis, crystal structure, electrochemical and kinetics studies on the oxidation of ascorbic acid

Two vanadium(V) complexes, [VO(L-1)]acac)] (1) and [VO(L-2)(acac)] (2), where H2L1 = N,N-bis(2-hydroxy-3-5-di-tert-butyl-benzyl)propylamine and H2L2 = 2,2'-selenobis(4,6-di-tert-butylphenol), have been synthesized and characterized by elemental analyses, IR, V-51 NMR, both in the solid and in solution, and cyclic voltammetric studies. Single crystal X-ray studies reveal that in complex 1 the vanadium atom is octahedrally coordinated with an O5N donor environment, where the oxygen atom of the V-V=O moiety and the N atom of the ONO ligand occupy the axial sites while two oxygen atoms (O1 and O2) from the bisphenolate ligand and two oxygen atoms (O3 and O4) from the acac ligand occupy the equatorial plane. A similar bonding pattern has also been encountered for 2 with the exception that a Se atom instead of N is involved in weak bonding to the metal center. Both complexes showed reversible cyclic voltammeric responses and E-1/2 appears at -0.18 and 0.10 V versus NHE for complexes 1 and 2, respectively. The kinetics of oxidation of ascorbic acid by complex 1 were carried out in 50% MeCN-50% HO (v/v) at 25 degrees C. The high formation constant value, Q = 63 +/- 7 M-1, reveals that the reaction proceeds through the rapid formation of a H-bonded intermediate. The low k(2)Q(2)/k(1)Q(1) ratio (13.4) for 1 points out that there is extensive H-bonding between the oxygen atom of the V-V=O group and the OH group of ascorbic acid. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The vibrations and tunnelling of malonaldehyde on a Moller-Plesset surface

The vibrations and tunnelling motion of malonaldehyde have been studied in their full dimensionality using an internal coordinate path Hamiltonian. In this representation there is one large amplitude internal coordinate s and 3N - 7 (=20) normal coordinates Q which are orthogonal to the large amplitude motion at all points. It is crucial that a high accuracy potential energy surface is used in order to obtain a good representation for the tunneling motion; we use a Moller-Plesset (MP2) surface. Our methodology is variational, that is we diagonalize a sufficiently large matrix in order to obtain the required vibrational levels, so an exact representation for the kinetic energy operator is used. In a harmonic valley representation (s, Q) complete convergence of the normal coordinate motions and the internal coordinate motions has been obtained; for the anharmonic valley in which we use two- and three-body terms in the surface (s, Q(1), Q(2)), we also obtain complete convergence. Our final computed stretching fundamentals are deficient because our potential energy surface is truncated at quartic terms in the normal coordinates, but our lower fundamentals are good.

Impact of geographical region on urinary metabolomic and plasma fatty acid profiles in subjects with the metabolic syndrome across Europe: the LIPGENE study

The application of metabolomics in multi-centre studies is increasing. The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of geographical location on the metabolic profiles of individuals with the metabolic syndrome. Blood and urine samples were collected from 219 adults from seven European centres participating in the LIPGENE project (Diet, genomics and the metabolic syndrome: an integrated nutrition, agro-food, social and economic analysis). Nutrient intakes, BMI, waist:hip ratio, blood pressure, and plasma glucose, insulin and blood lipid levels were assessed. Plasma fatty acid levels and urine were assessed using a metabolomic technique. The separation of three European geographical groups (NW, northwest; NE, northeast; SW, southwest) was identified using partial least-squares discriminant analysis models for urine (R 2 X: 0•33, Q 2: 0•39) and plasma fatty acid (R 2 X: 0•32, Q 2: 0•60) data. The NW group was characterised by higher levels of urinary hippurate and N-methylnicotinate. The NE group was characterised by higher levels of urinary creatine and citrate and plasma EPA (20 : 5 n-3). The SW group was characterised by higher levels of urinary trimethylamine oxide and lower levels of plasma EPA. The indicators of metabolic health appeared to be consistent across the groups. The SW group had higher intakes of total fat and MUFA compared with both the NW and NE groups (P≤ 0•001). The NE group had higher intakes of fibre and n-3 and n-6 fatty acids compared with both the NW and SW groups (all P< 0•001). It is likely that differences in dietary intakes contributed to the separation of the three groups. Evaluation of geographical factors including diet should be considered in the interpretation of metabolomic data from multi-centre studies.

The gas-phase reaction between silylene and 2-butyne: kinetics, isotope studies, pressure dependence studies and quantum chemical calculations

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reactions of silylene, SiH2, and dideutero-silylene, SiD2, generated by laser. ash photolysis of phenylsilane and phenylsilane-d(3), respectively, have been carried out to obtain rate coefficients for their bimolecular reactions with 2-butyne, CH3C CCH3. The reactions were studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas at five temperatures in the range 294-612 K. The second-order rate coefficients, obtained by extrapolation to the high pressure limits at each temperature, fitted the Arrhenius equations where the error limits are single standard deviations: log(k(H)(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-9.67 +/- 0.04) + (1.71 +/- 0.33) kJ mol(-1)/RTln10 log(k(D)(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-9.65 +/- 0.01) + (1.92 +/- 0.13) kJ mol(-1)/RTln10 Additionally, pressure-dependent rate coefficients for the reaction of SiH2 with 2-butyne in the presence of He (1-100 Torr) were obtained at 301, 429 and 613 K. Quantum chemical (ab initio) calculations of the SiC4H8 reaction system at the G3 level support the formation of 2,3-dimethylsilirene [cyclo-SiH2C(CH3)=C(CH3)-] as the sole end product. However, reversible formation of 2,3-dimethylvinylsilylene [CH3CH=C(CH3)SiH] is also an important process. The calculations also indicate the probable involvement of several other intermediates, and possible products. RRKM calculations are in reasonable agreement with the pressure dependences at an enthalpy value for 2,3-dimethylsilirene fairly close to that suggested by the ab initio calculations. The experimental isotope effects deviate significantly from those predicted by RRKM theory. The differences can be explained by an isotopic scrambling mechanism, involving H - D exchange between the hydrogens of the methyl groups and the D-atoms in the ring in 2,3-dimethylsilirene-1,1-d(2). A detailed mechanism involving several intermediate species, which is consistent with the G3 energy surface, is proposed to account for this.

Sonic to ultrasonic Q of sandstones and limestones: Laboratory measurements at in situ pressures

Laboratory measurements of the attenuation and velocity dispersion of compressional and shear waves at appropriate frequencies, pressures, and temperatures can aid interpretation of seismic and well-log surveys as well as indicate absorption mechanisms in rocks. Construction and calibration of resonant-bar equipment was used to measure velocities and attenuations of standing shear and extensional waves in copper-jacketed right cylinders of rocks (30 cm in length, 2.54 cm in diameter) in the sonic frequency range and at differential pressures up to 65 MPa. We also measured ultrasonic velocities and attenuations of compressional and shear waves in 50-mm-diameter samples of the rocks at identical pressures. Extensional-mode velocities determined from the resonant bar are systematically too low, yielding unreliable Poisson's ratios. Poisson's ratios determined from the ultrasonic data are frequency corrected and used to calculate the sonic-frequency compressional-wave velocities and attenuations from the shear- and extensional-mode data. We calculate the bulk-modulus loss. The accuracies of attenuation data (expressed as 1000/Q, where Q is the quality factor) are +/- 1 for compressional and shear waves at ultrasonic frequency, +/- 1 for shear waves, and +/- 3 for compressional waves at sonic frequency. Example sonic-frequency data show that the energy absorption in a limestone is small (Q(P) greater than 200 and stress independent) and is primarily due to poroelasticity, whereas that in the two sandstones is variable in magnitude (Q(P) ranges from less than 50 to greater than 300, at reservoir pressures) and arises from a combination of poroelasticity and viscoelasticity. A graph of compressional-wave attenuation versus compressional-wave velocity at reservoir pressures differentiates high-permeability (> 100 mD, 9.87 X 10(-14) m(2)) brine-saturated sandstones from low-permeability (< 100 mD, 9.87 X 10 (14) m(2)) sandstones and shales.

Overview of observations from the RADAGAST experiment in Niamey, Niger: 2. Radiative fluxes and divergences

Broadband shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes observed both at the surface and from space during the Radiative Atmospheric Divergence using ARM Mobile Facility, GERB data and AMMA Stations (RADAGAST) experiment in Niamey, Niger, in 2006 are presented. The surface fluxes were measured by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Mobile Facility (AMF) at Niamey airport, while the fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) are from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on the Meteosat-8 satellite. The data are analyzed as daily averages, in order to minimize sampling differences between the surface and top of atmosphere instruments, while retaining the synoptic and seasonal changes that are the main focus of this study. A cloud mask is used to identify days with cloud versus those with predominantly clear skies. The influence of temperature, water vapor, aerosols, and clouds is investigated. Aerosols are ubiquitous throughout the year and have a significant impact on both the shortwave and longwave fluxes. The large and systematic seasonal changes in temperature and column integrated water vapor (CWV) through the dry and wet seasons are found to exert strong influences on the longwave fluxes. These influences are often in opposition to each other, because the highest temperatures occur at the end of the dry season when the CWV is lowest, while in the wet season the lowest temperatures are associated with the highest values of CWV. Apart from aerosols, the shortwave fluxes are also affected by clouds and by the seasonal changes in CWV. The fluxes are combined to provide estimates of the divergence of radiation across the atmosphere throughout 2006. The longwave divergence shows a relatively small variation through the year, because of a partial compensation between the seasonal variations in the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and surface net longwave radiation. A simple model of the greenhouse effect is used to interpret this result in terms of the dependence of the normalized greenhouse effect at the TOA and of the effective emissivity of the atmosphere at the surface on the CWV. It is shown that, as the CWV increases, the atmosphere loses longwave energy to the surface with about the same increasing efficiency with which it traps the OLR. When combined with the changes in temperature, this maintains the atmospheric longwave divergence within the narrow range that is observed. The shortwave divergence is mainly determined by the CWV and aerosol loadings and the effect of clouds is much smaller than on the component fluxes.

Carbon suboxide: the vibrational dependence of the v7 bending potential function

Data on the vibrational energy levels and rotational constants of carbon suboxide for the low-wavenumber bending mode ν7 are reviewed, in the ground-state manifold, and in the ν2-, ν3-, ν4-, and ν2 + ν4-state manifolds. Following the procedure developed by Duckett, Mills, and Robiette [J. Mol. Spectrosc. 63, 249 (1976)] the data have been inverted to give the effective bending potential in ν7 for each of these five states. Values are obtained for various other parameters in the effective vibration-rotation Hamiltonian. The potential and rotational constants in ν2 + ν4 are given to a close approximation by linear extrapolation from the ground state through the ν2 and ν4 states.

Atmospheric chemistry of C4F9OC2H5 (HFE-7200), C4F9OCH3 (HFE-7100), C3F7OCH3 (HFE-7000) and C3F7CH2OH: temperature dependence of the kinetics of their reactions with OH radicals, atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials

The atmospheric chemistry of several gases used in industrial applications, C4F9OC2H5 (HFE-7200), C4F9OCH3 (HFE-7100), C3F7OCH3 (HFE-7000) and C3F7CH2OH, has been studied. The discharge flow technique coupled with mass-spectrometric detection has been used to study the kinetics of their reactions with OH radicals as a function of temperature. The infrared spectra of the compounds have also been measured. The following Arrhenius expressions for the reactions were determined (in units of cm3 molecule-1 s-1): k(OH + HFE-7200) = (6.9+2.3-1.7) × 10-11 exp(-(2030 ± 190)/T); k(OH + HFE-7100) = (2.8+3.2-1.5) × 10-11 exp(-(2200 ± 490)/T); k(OH + HFE-7000) = (2.0+1.2-0.7) × 10-11 exp(-(2130 ± 290)/T); and k(OH + C3F7CH2OH) = (1.4+0.3-0.2) × 10-11 exp(-(1460 ± 120)/T). From the infrared spectra, radiative forcing efficiencies were determined and compared with earlier estimates in the literature. These were combined with the kinetic data to estimate 100-year time horizon global warming potentials relative to CO2 of 69, 337, 499 and 36 for HFE-7200, HFE-7100, HFE-7000 and CF3CF2CF2CH2OH, respectively.

CCL3, acting via the chemokine receptor CCR5, leads to independent activation of Janus kinase 2 (JAK2) and G(i) proteins

The interaction of the chemokine receptor, CCR5, expressed in recombinant cells, with different G proteins was investigated and CCR5 was found to interact with G(i), G(o) and G(q) species. Interaction with Gi leads to G protein activation, whereas G. does not seem to be activated. Additionally, CCR5 activation also leads to phosphorylation of Janus kinase 2 (JAK2). Activation of JAK2 is independent of Gi or Gq activation. Gi protein activation was not prevented by inhibition of JAK, showing that heterotrimeric G protein activation and activation of the JAK/signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT) pathway are independent of each other. (C) 2004 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms of agonist action at D-2 dopamine receptors

In this study, we investigated the biochemical mechanisms of agonist action at the G protein-coupled D-2 dopamine receptor expressed in Chinese hamster ovary cells. Stimulation of guanosine 5'-O-(3-[S-35]thio) triphosphate ([S-35]GTPgammaS) binding by full and partial agonists was determined at different concentrations of [S-35]GTPgammaS (0.1 and 10 nM) and in the presence of different concentrations of GDP. At both concentrations of [S-35]GTPgammaS, increasing GDP decreased the [S-35]GTPgammaS binding observed with maximally stimulating concentrations of agonist, with partial agonists exhibiting greater sensitivity to the effects of GDP than full agonists. The relative efficacy of partial agonists was greater at the lower GDP concentrations. Concentration-response experiments were performed for a range of agonists at the two [S-35]GTPgammaS concentrations and with different concentrations of GDP. At 0.1 nM [S-35]GTPgammaS, the potency of both full and partial agonists was dependent on the GDP concentration in the assays. At 10 nM [S-35]GTPgammaS, the potency of full agonists exhibited a greater dependence on the GDP concentration, whereas the potency of partial agonists was virtually independent of GDP. We concluded that at the lower [S-35]GTPgammaS concentration, the rate-determining step in G protein activation is the binding of [S-35]GTPgammaS to the G protein. At the higher [S-35]GTPgammaS concentration, for full agonists, [S-35]GTPgammaS binding remains the slowest step, whereas for partial agonists, another (GDP-independent) step, probably ternary complex breakdown, becomes rate-determining.

Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.