Bridging the Faraoni and Selli oceanic anoxic events: late Hauterivian to early Aptian dysaerobic to anaerobic phases in the Tethys.

A detailed geochemical analysis was performed on the upper part of the Maiolica Formation in the Breggia (southern Switzerland) and Capriolo sections (northern Italy). The analysed sediments consist of well-bedded, partly siliceous, pelagic carbonate, which lodges numerous thin, dark and organic-rich layers. Stable-isotope, phosphorus, organic-carbon and a suite of redox-sensitive trace-element contents (RSTE: Mo, U, Co, V and As) were measured. The RSTE pattern and Corg:Ptot ratios indicate that most organic-rich layers were deposited under dysaerobic rather than anaerobic conditions and that latter conditions were likely restricted to short intervals in the latest Hauterivian, the early Barremian and the pre-Selli early Aptian. Correlations are both possible with organic-rich intervals in central Italy (the Gorgo a Cerbara section) and the Boreal Lower Saxony Basin, as well as with the facies and drowning pattern in the Helvetic segment of the northern Tethyan carbonate platform. Our data and correlations suggest that the latest Hauterivian witnessed the progressive installation of dysaerobic conditions in the Tethys, which went along with the onset in sediment condensation, phosphogenesis and platform drowning on the northern Tethyan margin, and which culminated in the Faraoni anoxic episode. This episode is followed by further episodes of dysaerobic conditions in the Tethys and the Lower Saxony Basin, which became more frequent and progressively stronger in the late early Barremian. Platform drowning persisted and did not halt before the latest early Barremian. The late Barremian witnessed diminishing frequencies and intensities in dysaerobic conditions, which went along with the progressive installation of the Urgonian carbonate platform. Near the Barremian-Aptian boundary, the increasing density in dysaerobic episodes in the Tethyan and Lower Saxony Basins is paralleled by a change towards heterozoan carbonate production on the northern Tethyan shelf. The following return to more oxygenated conditions is correlated with the second phase of Urgonian platform growth and the period immediately preceding and corresponding to the Selli anoxic episode is characterised by renewed platform drowning and the change to heterozoan carbonate production. Changes towards more humid climate conditions were the likely cause for the repetitive installation of dys- to anaerobic conditions in the Tethyan and Boreal basins and the accompanying changes in the evolution of the carbonate platform towards heterozoan carbonate-producing ecosystems and platform drowning.

Geoarchaeological investigations of midden-formation processes in the early to late Neolithic levels at Catalhoyuk, Turkey ca. 8550-8370 cal BP.

Anthropogenic midden deposits are remarkably well preserved at the Neolithic settlement of atalhöyük and provide significant archaeological information on the types and nature of activities occurring at the site. To decipher their complex stratigraphy and to investigate formation processes, a combination of geoarchaeological techniques was used. Deposits were investigated from the early ceramic to late Neolithic levels, targeting continuous sequences to examine high resolution and broader scale changes in deposition. Thin-section micromorphology combined with targeted phytolith and geochemical analyses indicates they are composed of a diverse range of ashes and other charred and siliceous plant materials, with inputs of decayed plants and organic matter, fecal waste, and sedimentary aggregates, each with diverse depositional pathways. Activities identified include in situ burning, with a range of different fuel types that may be associated with different activities. The complexity and heterogeneity of the midden deposits, and thus the necessity of employing an integrated microstratigraphic approach is demonstrated, as a prerequisite for cultural and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.

Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate. We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns.

Extinction processes in hotspots of avian biodiversity and the targeting of pre-emptive conservation action

Hot spots of endemism are regarded as important global sites for conservation as they are rich in threatened endemic species and currently experiencing extensive habitat loss. Targeting pre-emptive conservation action to sites that are currently relatively intact but which would be vulnerable to particular human activities if they occurred in the future is, however, also valuable but has received less attention. Here, we address this issue by using data on Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs). First, we identify the ecological factors that affect extinction risk in the face of particular human activities, and then use these insights to identify EBAs that should be priorities for pre-emptive conservation action. Threatened endemic species in EBAs are significantly more likely to be habitat specialists or relatively large-bodied than non-threatened species, when compared across avian families. Increasing habitat loss causes a significant increase in extinction risk among habitat specialists, but we found no evidence to suggest that the presence of alien species/human exploitation causes a significant increase in extinction risk among large-bodied species. This suggests that these particular human activities are contributing to high extinction risk among habitat specialists, but not among large-bodied species. Based on these analyses, we identify 39 EBAs containing 570 species (24% of the total in EBAs) that are not currently threatened with severe habitat loss, but would be ecologically vulnerable to future habitat loss should it occur. We show that these sites tend to be poorly represented in existing priority setting exercises involving hot spots, suggesting that vulnerability must be explicitly included within these exercises if such sites are to be adequately protected.

A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

Disease-weather relationships influencing Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) preceding growth stage (GS) 31 were identified using data from 12 sites in the UK covering 8 years. Based on these relationships, an early-warning predictive model for SLB on winter wheat was formulated to predict the occurrence of a damaging epidemic (defined as disease severity of 5% or > 5% on the top three leaf layers). The final model was based on accumulated rain > 3 mm in the 80-day period preceding GS 31 (roughly from early-February to the end of April) and accumulated minimum temperature with a 0A degrees C base in the 50-day period starting from 120 days preceding GS 31 (approximately January and February). The model was validated on an independent data set on which the prediction accuracy was influenced by cultivar resistance. Over all observations, the model had a true positive proportion of 0.61, a true negative proportion of 0.73, a sensitivity of 0.83, and a specificity of 0.18. True negative proportion increased to 0.85 for resistant cultivars and decreased to 0.50 for susceptible cultivars. Potential fungicide savings are most likely to be made with resistant cultivars, but such benefits would need to be identified with an in-depth evaluation.

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to he stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase H and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Extinction processes in hot spots of avian biodiversity and the targeting of pre-emptive conservation action

Hot spots of endemism are regarded as important global sites for conservation as they are rich in threatened endemic species and currently experiencing extensive habitat loss. Targeting pre-emptive conservation action to sites that are currently relatively intact but which would be vulnerable to particular human activities if they occurred in the future is, however, also valuable but has received less attention. Here, we address this issue by using data on Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs). First, we identify the ecological factors that affect extinction risk in the face of particular human activities, and then use these insights to identify EBAs that should be priorities for pre-emptive conservation action. Threatened endemic species in EBAs are significantly more likely to be habitat specialists or relatively large-bodied than non-threatened species, when compared across avian families. Increasing habitat loss causes a significant increase in extinction risk among habitat specialists, but we found no evidence to suggest that the presence of alien species/human exploitation causes a significant increase in extinction risk among large-bodied species. This suggests that these particular human activities are contributing to high extinction risk among habitat specialists, but not among large-bodied species. Based on these analyses, we identify 39 EBAs containing 570 species (24% of the total in EBAs) that are not currently threatened with severe habitat loss, but would be ecologically vulnerable to future habitat loss should it occur. We show that these sites tend to be poorly represented in existing priority setting exercises involving hot spots, suggesting that vulnerability must be explicitly included within these exercises if such sites are to be adequately protected.

'Thou glorious kingdome, thou chiefe of empires': Persia in seventeenth-century travel literature

Bringing together a range of little-considered materials, this article assesses the portrayal of Persia in seventeenth-century travel literature and drama. In particular it argues that such texts use their awareness of Islamic sectarian division to portray Persia as a good potential trading partner in preference to the Ottoman Empire. A close reading of John Day, William Rowley and George Wilkins’ The Travailes of the Three English Brothers (1607) demonstrates how the play develops a fantasy model of how relations between Persia and England might function. The potential unity between England and Persia, imagined in terms of both religion and trade, demonstrates how Persia figured as a model ‘other England’ in early modern literature.

Accurate analysis of noble gas concentrations in small water samples and its application to fluid inclusions in stalagmites

The concentrations of dissolved noble gases in water are widely used as a climate proxy to determine noble gas temperatures (NGTs); i.e., the temperature of the water when gas exchange last occurred. In this paper we make a step forward to apply this principle to fluid inclusions in stalagmites in order to reconstruct the cave temperature prevailing at the time when the inclusion was formed. We present an analytical protocol that allows us accurately to determine noble gas concentrations and isotope ratios in stalagmites, and which includes a precise manometrical determination of the mass of water liberated from fluid inclusions. Most important for NGT determination is to reduce the amount of noble gases liberated from air inclusions, as they mask the temperature-dependent noble gas signal from the water inclusions. We demonstrate that offline pre-crushing in air to subsequently extract noble gases and water from the samples by heating is appropriate to separate gases released from air and water inclusions. Although a large fraction of recent samples analysed by this technique yields NGTs close to present-day cave temperatures, the interpretation of measured noble gas concentrations in terms of NGTs is not yet feasible using the available least squares fitting models. This is because the noble gas concentrations in stalagmites are not only composed of the two components air and air saturated water (ASW), which these models are able to account for. The observed enrichments in heavy noble gases are interpreted as being due to adsorption during sample preparation in air, whereas the excess in He and Ne is interpreted as an additional noble gas component that is bound in voids in the crystallographic structure of the calcite crystals. As a consequence of our study's findings, NGTs will have to be determined in the future using the concentrations of Ar, Kr and Xe only. This needs to be achieved by further optimizing the sample preparation to minimize atmospheric contamination and to further reduce the amount of noble gases released from air inclusions.

'Thou glorious kingdome, thou chiefe of empires': Persia in seventeenth-century travel literature

This article discusses a series of texts by or about travellers to Safavid Persia in the early seventeenth century, and in particular the literature surrounding the Sherley brothers. It looks at the ways in which, in order to encourage support for the voyages they described, English travel writers emphasised the potential for closer Anglo-Persian relations. In doing so, such narratives took advantage of a developing awareness of sectarian division within Islam in order to differentiate Persia from the Ottoman Empire. The article then examines how The Travailes of the Three English Brothers (1607) by Day, Rowley and Wilkins, built on the possibilities suggested by the travel writings, and specifically their recognition of Islamic sectarian division, to develop an idealised model of how relations between Persia and England might function. More broadly, these texts demonstrate travellers’ interest in looking for potential correlation between Christian and Muslim identities during this period.

Absence of association between the INSIG2 gene polymorphism (rs7566605) and obesity in the European Youth Heart Study (EYHS)

The first genome-wide association study for BMI identified a polymorphism, rs7566605, 10 kb upstream of the insulin-induced gene 2 (INSIG2) transcription start site, as the most significantly associated variant in children and adults. Subsequent studies, however, showed inconsistent association of this polymorphism with obesity traits. This polymorphism has been hypothesized to alter INSIG2 expression leading to inhibition of fatty acid and cholesterol synthesis. Hence, we investigated the association of the INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism with obesity- and lipid-related traits in Danish and Estonian children (930 boys and 1,073 girls) from the European Youth Heart Study (EYHS), a school-based, cross-sectional study of pre- and early pubertal children. The association between the polymorphism and obesity traits was tested using additive and recessive models adjusted for age, age-group, gender, maturity and country. Interactions were tested by including the interaction terms in the model. Despite having sufficient power (98%) to detect the previously reported effect size for association with BMI, we did not find significant effects of rs7566605 on BMI (additive, P = 0.68; recessive, P = 0.24). Accordingly, the polymorphism was not associated with overweight (P = 0.87) or obesity (P = 0.34). We also did not find association with waist circumference (WC), sum of four skinfolds, or with total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein, or high-density lipoprotein. There were no gender-specific (P = 0.55), age-group-specific (P = 0.63) or country-specific (P = 0.56) effects. There was also no evidence of interaction between genotype and physical activity (P = 0.95). Despite an adequately powered study, our findings suggest that rs7566605 is not associated with obesity-related traits and lipids in the EYHS.

Islamic mutual funds' financial performance and international investment style: evidence from 20 countries

We pursue the first large-scale investigation of a strongly growing mutual fund type: Islamic funds. Based on an unexplored, survivorship bias-adjusted data set, we analyse the financial performance and investment style of 265 Islamic equity funds from 20 countries. As Islamic funds often have diverse investment regions, we develop a (conditional) three-level Carhart model to simultaneously control for exposure to different national, regional and global equity markets and investment styles. Consistent with recent evidence for conventional funds, we find Islamic funds to display superior learning in more developed Islamic financial markets. While Islamic funds from these markets are competitive to international equity benchmarks, funds from especially Western nations with less Islamic assets tend to significantly underperform. Islamic funds’ investment style is somewhat tilted towards growth stocks. Funds from predominantly Muslim economies also show a clear small cap preference. These results are consistent over time and robust to time varying market exposures and capital market restrictions.

The role of context in forming young learners' attitudes and motivation to learning French

Despite the wealth of valuable information that has been generated by motivation studies to date, there are certain limitations in the common approaches. Quantitative and psychometric approaches to motivation research that have dominated in recent decades provided epiphenomenal descriptions of learner motivation within different contexts. However, these approaches assume homogeneity within a given group and often mask the variation between learners within the same, and different, contexts. Although these studies have provided empirical data to form and validate theoretical constructs, they have failed to recognise learners as individual ‘people’ that interact with their context. Learning context has become increasingly explicit in motivation studies, (see Coleman et al. 2007 and Housen et al. 2011), however it is generally considered as a background variable which is pre-existing and external to the individual. Stemming from the recent ‘social turn’ (Block 2003) in SLA research from a more cognitive-linguistic perspective to a more context-specific view of language learning, there has been an upsurge in demand for a greater focus on the ‘person in context’ in motivation research (Ushioda 2011). This paper reports on the findings of a longitudinal study of young English learners of French as they transition from primary to secondary school. Over 12 months, the study employed a mixed-method approach in order to gain an in-depth understanding of how the learners’ context influenced attitudes to language learning. The questionnaire results show that whilst the learners displayed some consistent and stable motivational traits over the 12 months, there were significant differences for learners within different contexts in terms of their attitudes to the language classroom and their levels of self-confidence. A subsequent examination of the qualitative focus group data provided an insight into how and why these attitudes were formed and emphasised the dynamic and complex interplay between learners and their context.

The effect of simulated flooding post-anthesis on pre-harvest sprouting and subsequent seed longevity in contrasting rice cultivars

Unpredictable flooding is a major constraint to rice production. It can occur at any growth stage. The effect of simulated flooding post-anthesis on yield and subsequent seed quality of pot-grown rice (Oryza sativa L.) plants was investigated in glasshouses and controlled-environment growth cabinets. Submergence post-anthesis (9-40 DAA) for 3 or 5 days reduced seed weight of japonica rice cv. Gleva, with considerable pre-harvest sprouting (up to 53%). The latter was greater the later in seed development and maturation that flooding occurred. Sprouted seed had poor ability to survive desiccation or germinate normally upon rehydration, whereas the effects of flooding on the subsequent air-dry seed storage longevity (p50) of the non-sprouted seed fraction was negligible. The indica rice cvs IR64 and IR64Sub1 (introgression of submergence tolerance gene Submergence1A-1) were both far more tolerant to flooding post-anthesis than cv. Gleva: four days’ submergence of these two near-isogenic cultivars at 10-40 DAA resulted less than 1% sprouted seeds. The presence of the Sub1A-1 allele in cv. IR64Sub1 was verified by gel electrophoresis and DNA sequencing. It had no harmful effect on loss in seed viability during storage compared with IR64 in both control and flooded environments. Moreover, the germinability and changes in dormancy during seed development and maturation were very similar to IR64. The efficiency of using chemical spray to increase seed dormancy was investigated in the pre-harvest sprouting susceptible rice cv. Gleva. Foliar application of molybdenum at 100 mg L-1 reduced sprouted seeds by 15-21% following 4 days’ submergence at 20-30 DAA. Analyses confirmed that the treatment did result in molybdenum uptake by the plants, and also tended to increase seed abscisic acid concentration. The latter was reduced by submergence and declined exponentially during grain ripening. The selection of submergence-tolerant varieties was more successful than application of molybdenum in reducing pre-harvest sprouting.