Forecasting UK real estate cycle phases with leading indicators: a probit approach

This paper examines the significance of widely used leading indicators of the UK economy for predicting the cyclical pattern of commercial real estate performance. The analysis uses monthly capital value data for UK industrials, offices and retail from the Investment Property Databank (IPD). Prospective economic indicators are drawn from three sources namely, the series used by the US Conference Board to construct their UK leading indicator and the series deployed by two private organisations, Lombard Street Research and NTC Research, to predict UK economic activity. We first identify turning points in the capital value series adopting techniques employed in the classical business cycle literature. We then estimate probit models using the leading economic indicators as independent variables and forecast the probability of different phases of capital values, that is, periods of declining and rising capital values. The forecast performance of the models is tested and found to be satisfactory. The predictability of lasting directional changes in property performance represents a useful tool for real estate investment decision-making.

Sensitivity of radar backscatter to desert surface roughness

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data have proved useful in remote sensing studies of deserts, enabling different surfaces to be discriminated by differences in roughness properties. Roughness is characterized in SAR backscatter models using the standard deviation of surface heights (sigma), correlation length (L) and autocorrelation function (rho(xi)). Previous research has suggested that these parameters are of limited use for characterizing surface roughness, and are often unreliable due to the collection of too few roughness profiles, or under-sampling in terms of resolution or profile length (L-p). This paper reports on work aimed at establishing the effects of L-p and sampling resolution on SAR backscatter estimations and site discrimination. Results indicate significant relationships between the average roughness parameters and L-p, but large variability in roughness parameters prevents any clear understanding of these relationships. Integral equation model simulations demonstrate limited change with L-p and under-estimate backscatter relative to SAR observations. However, modelled and observed backscatter conform in pattern and magnitude for C-band systems but not for L-band data. Variation in surface roughness alone does not explain variability in site discrimination. Other factors (possibly sub-surface scattering) appear to play a significant role in controlling backscatter characteristics at lower frequencies.

Monitoring and modelling the three-dimensional flow of water under drip irrigation

The interpretation of soil water dynamics under drip irrigation systems is relevant for crop production as well as on water use and management. In this study a three-dimensional representation of the flow of water under drip irrigation is presented. The work includes analysis of the water balance at point scale as well as area-average, exploring uncertainties in water balance estimations depending on the number of locations sampled. The water flow was monitored by detailed profile water content measurements before irrigation, after irrigation and 24 h later with a dense array of soil moisture access tubes radially distributed around selected drippers. The objective was to develop a methodology that could be used on selected occasions to obtain 'snap shots' of the detailed three-dimensional patterns of soil moisture. Such patterns are likely to be very complex, as spatial variability will be induced for a number of reasons, such as strong horizontal gradients in soil moisture, variations between individual sources in the amount of water applied and spatial variability is soil hydraulic properties. Results are compared with a widely used numerical model, Hydrus-2D. The observed dynamic of the water content distribution is in good agreement with model simulations, although some discrepancies concerning the horizontal distribution of the irrigation bulb are noted due to soil heterogeneity. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dichotomous-choice contingent valuation with 'don't know' responses and misreporting

A new approach is presented that simultaneously deals with Misreporting and Don't Know (DK) responses within a dichotomous-choice contingent valuation framework. Utilising a modification of the standard Bayesian Probit framework, a Gibbs with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to estimate the posterior densities for the parameters of interest. Several model specifications are applied to two contingent valuation datasets: one on wolf management plans, and one on the US Fee Demonstration Program. We find that DKs are more likely to be from people who would be predicted to have positive utility for the bid. Therefore, a DK is more likely to be a YES than a NO. We also find evidence of misreporting, primarily in favour of the NO option. The inclusion of DK responses has an unpredictable impact on willingness-to-pay estimates, since it impacts differently on the results for the two datasets we examine. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An investigation into factors affecting the occupational choices of nominated farm heirs in Ireland

The resilience of family farming is an important feature of the structure of the farming industry in many countries, due largely to the 'smooth' succession of farms from one generation to the next. The stability of this structure is now threatened by the widening gap between the income expected from farming when compared with non-farming occupations in an economy like Ireland, operating at almost full employment. Nominated farm heirs are increasingly unlikely to choose full-time farming as their preferred occupation. To identify the factors that affect this occupational choice, a multinomial logit model is developed and applied to Irish data to examine the farm, economic and personal characteristics that influence a nominated heir's decision to enter farming as opposed to some non-farming occupation. The results show a significant negative relationship between higher education and the choice of full-time farming as an occupation. The interdependence between education and occupational choices is further explored using a bivariate probit model. The main findings are: the occupational choice and the decision to continue with higher education are made jointly; the nominated heirs on more profitable farms are less likely to pursue tertiary education and therefore more likely to enter full-time farming. The model developed is sufficiently general for studying the phenomenon of succession on farms.

Policy options promoting market participation among smallholder livestock producers: a case study from the Phillipines

We investigate the factors precipitating market entry where smallholders make decisions about participation (a discrete choice about whether to sell quantities of products) and supply (a continuous-valued choice about how much quantity to sell) in a cross-section of smallholders in Northern Luzon, Philippines, in a model that combines basic probit and Tobit ideas, is implemented using Bayesian methods, and generates precise estimates of the inputs required in order to effect entry among the non-participants. We estimate the total amounts of (cattle, buffalo, pig and chicken) livestock input required to effect entry and compare and contrast the alternative input requirements. To the extent that our smallholder sample may be representative of a wide and broader set of circumstances, our findings shed light on offsetting impacts of conflicting factors that complicate the roles for policy in the context of expanding the density of participation.

Domestically produced food: Consumer perceptions of origin, safety and the issue of trust

It is becoming increasingly difficult for the public to attempt to assess risks using traditional methods such as smell, taste or other physical attributes of food. The existence of extrinsic cues such as the country of origin (COO) of food can help to make food purchase decisions easier for consumers. However, the use of extrinsic cues depends heavily on the extent to which consumers trust such signals to be indicative of quality or safety, which in turn depends on the credibility behind that cue. This paper aims to examine consumers association of domestically produced food with increased food safety standards and the association of COO and food safety information with socio-demographics and other aspects of consumer psychology such as attitudes, risk perception and trust. Using an ordered probit model, domestic production is examined as an extrinsic cue for food safety by looking at the relationship with trust in food safety information provided by national food standards agencies (NFSAs) and other socio-demographic characteristics, based on nationally representative data from 2725 face-to-face interviews across five European countries. Results suggest that domestic production of food is an extrinsic cue for food safety and as consumers place increasing importance on food safety they are more interested in food produced in their own country. This, coupled with consumer trust in a strong, and independent national food standards agency, suggests the potential exists for the increased consumption of domestically produced foods.

Modelling risk perception and trust in food safety information within the theory of planned behaviour

This study suggests a statistical strategy for explaining how food purchasing intentions are influenced by different levels of risk perception and trust in food safety information. The modelling process is based on Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behaviour and includes trust and risk perception as additional explanatory factors. Interaction and endogeneity across these determinants is explored through a system of simultaneous equations, while the SPARTA equation is estimated through an ordered probit model. Furthermore, parameters are allowed to vary as a function of socio-demographic variables. The application explores chicken purchasing intentions both in a standard situation and conditional to an hypothetical salmonella scare. Data were collected through a nationally representative UK wide survey of 533 UK respondents in face-to-face, in-home interviews. Empirical findings show that interactions exist among the determinants of planned behaviour and socio-demographic variables improve the model's performance. Attitudes emerge as the key determinant of intention to purchase chicken, while trust in food safety information provided by media reduces the likelihood to purchase. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consumer attitudes towards and willingness to pay for pesticide residue limit compliant 'safe' vegetables in Northeast Thailand

Pesticide residue in vegetables is a major food safety issue in Thailand. A range of vegetable products (organic/pesticide-free/ hydroponic) has emerged in Thai markets that guarantee compliance with maximum residue limits. The Government of Thailand is eager to extend the benefits of this suite of alternative vegetables to the entire population, particularly the semi-urban/rural segments that are often bypassed by such speciality products. However, little information is available to guide such an effort, particularly with regard to up-country consumer attitudes, shopping and consumption habits and willingness to pay premiums for such produce. This research aims to fill this gap in knowledge. It reports the results of a survey of vegetable consumption and shopping habits and attitudes of 608 consumers in northeast Thailand. Willingness to pay premiums for pesticide residue limit compliant vegetables is also assessed by using a contingent valuation method, and determinants of willingness to pay are examined using an ordered probit empirical model. Results indicate that, given adequate awareness of relative risks, even up-country consumers are willing to pay market premium levels for these products, and that inadequate availability, rather than lack of demand is the constraining factor. Willingness to pay is found to increase with income, age and supermarket sourcing of vegetables. We also discuss the challenge of improving availability at mainstream outlets.

Culture and food: a model of yoghurt consumption in the EU

The completion of the Single European Market was expected to create a large market that would enable firms to capture economies of scale that would in turn result in lower prices to European consumers. These benefits are only likely to be realised if consumers in the various countries of the EU wish to consume the same products and respond to similar marketing strategies (with respect to promotion, distribution etc). This study examines, through a model of yoghurt consumption, whether cultural differences continue to determine food-related behaviour in the EU. The model is derived from the marketing literature and views the consumption decision as the outcome of a multi-stage process in which yoghurt knowledge, attitudes to different yoghurt attributes (such as bio-bifidus, low-fat, organic) and overall attitude towards yoghurt as a product all feed into the frequency with which yoghurt is consumed at breakfast, as a snack and as a dessert. The model uses data collected from a consumer survey in I I European countries and is estimated using probit and ordinal probit methods. The results suggest that important cultural differences continue to determine food-related behaviour in the I I countries of the study. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Megnin re-analysed: the case of the newborn baby girl, Paris, 1878

This paper analyses acarological evidence from a 130-year-old forensic investigation. It was the first case in forensic acarology, i.e., the first case where mites provided substantial information to estimate the post-mortem interval (PMI). In 1878, the mites found in the mummified body of a newborn baby girl in Paris, France, were studied by acarologist and forensic entomologist Jean Pierre M,gnin. M,gnin estimated around 2.4 million mites in the skull and identified them as Tyroglyphus longior (Gervais), a junior synonym of Tyrophagus longior. He suggested that the arrival of these mites at the corpse would have occurred by phoresy on carrier insects, roughly 5 months before the autopsy. There is no doubt about the identification of the mites, M,gnin was a highly respected acarologist. However, two main factors affecting the biology of Tyrophagus mites were not included in the original analysis. First, M,gnin stated that the mites were phoretic. However, he probably did not have access to information about the natural history of the species, because as a rule Tyrophagus mites are non-phoretic. Considering the omnipresence of Tyrophagus mites in soil, most likely the mites will have arrived almost immediately after death. Second, temperature was not taken into account during the estimations of the mite population growth rate. The new analysis is based on current knowledge of Tyrophagus biology and includes temperature, estimated following a handful of weather reports of the years 1877 and 1878. The new projections indicate that non-phoretic mites may have colonised the body just after death and the colony would have built up over 8 months, contrary to the 5 months proposed by M,gnin. This new lapse of time agrees with the PMI proposed by Brouardel: on 15 January 1878 he postulated the death of the newborn to have occurred some 8 months before the autopsy.

An experimental analysis of body checking

The relationship between repeated body checking and its impact on body size estimation and body dissatisfaction is of interest for two reasons. First, it has importance in theoretical accounts of the maintenance of eating disorders and, second, body checking is targeted in cognitive-behavioural treatment. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of manipulating body checking on body size estimation and body dissatisfaction. Sixty women were randomly assigned either to repeatedly scrutinize their bodies in a critical way in the mirror ("high body checking") or to refrain from body checking but to examine the whole of their bodies in a neutral way ("low body checking"). Body dissatisfaction, feelings of fatness and the strength of a particular self-critical thought increased immediately after the manipulation among those in the high body checking condition. Feelings of fatness decreased among those in the low body checking condition. These changes were short-lived. The manipulation did not effect estimations of body size or the discrepancy between estimations of body size and desired body size. The implications of these findings for understanding the influence of body checking on the maintenance of body dissatisfaction are considered. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hemispace differences in the visual perception of size in left hemi-Parkinson's disease

The visual perception of size in different regions of external space was studied in Parkinson's disease (PD). A group of patients with worse left-sided symptoms (LPD) was compared with a group with worse right-sided symptoms (RPD) and with a group of age-matched controls on judgements of the relative height or width of two rectangles presented in different regions of external space. The relevant dimension of one rectangle (the 'standard') was held constant, while that of the other (the 'variable') was varied in a method of constant stimuli. The point of subjective equality (PSE) of rectangle width or height was obtained by probit analysis as the mean of the resulting psychometric function. When the standard was in left space, the PSE of the LPD group occurred when the variable was smaller, and when the standard was in right space, when the variable was larger. Similarly, when the standard rectangle was presented in upper space, and the variable in lower space, the PSE occurred when the variable was smaller, an effect which was similar in both left and right spaces. In all these experiments, the PSEs for both the controls and the RPD group did not differ significantly, and were close to a physical match, and the slopes of the psychometric functions were steeper in the controls than the patients, though not significantly so. The data suggest that objects appear smaller in the left and upper visual spaces in LPD, probably because of right hemisphere impairment. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.