Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

Stress-induced changes in the Schizosaccharomyces pombe proteome using two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis, mass spectrometry and a novel integrated robotics platform

Robotic and manual methods have been used to obtain identification of significantly changing proteins regulated when Schizosaccharomyces pombe is exposed to oxidative stress. Differently treated S. pombe cells were lysed, labelled with CyDye and analysed by two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis. Gel images analysed off-line, using the DeCyder image analysis software [GE Healthcare, Amersham, UK] allowed selection of significantly regulated proteins. Proteins displaying differential expression were excised robotically for manual digestion and identified by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation - mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS). Additionally the same set of proteins displaying differential expression were automatically cut and digested using a prototype robotic platform. Automated MALDI-MS, peak label assignment and database searching were utilised to identify as many proteins as possible. The results achieved by the robotic system were compared to manual methods. The identification of all significantly altered proteins provides an annotated peroxide stress-related proteome that can be used as a base resource against which other stress-induced proteomic changes can be compared.

Stress-induced changes in the Schizosaccharomyces pombe proteome using two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis, mass spectrometry and a novel integrated robotics platform

Robotic and manual methods have been used to obtain identification of significantly changing proteins regulated when Schizosaccharomyces pombe is exposed to oxidative stress. Differently treated S. pombe cells were lysed, labelled with CyDye (TM) and analysed by two-dimensional difference gel. electrophoresis. Gel images analysed off-line, using the DeCyder (TM) image analysis software [GE Healthcare, Amersham, UK] allowed selection of significantly regulated proteins. Proteins displaying differential expression were excised robotically for manual digestion and identified by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation - mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS). Additionally the same set of proteins displaying differential expression were automatically cut and digested using a prototype robotic platform. Automated MALDI-MS, peak label assignment and database searching were utilised to identify as many proteins as possible. The results achieved by the robotic system were compared to manual methods. The identification of all significantly altered proteins provides an annotated peroxide stress-related proteome that can be used as a base resource against which other stress-induced proteomic changes can be compared.

What is networked robotics?

Networked Robotics is an area that straddles robotics and network technology. A robot system controlled via the WWW exploits the Internet network and hence is one realisation of networked robotics. A set of field robots that exploit wireless networks to share and distribute tasks might also be considered an exemplar of networked robotics. But isn't this just an exemplar of distributed robotics? And if so, what does networked robotics bring to the 'robotics' table? These are questions and issues addressed in this paper. The paper will propose that networks are at once both enabling and constraining to robotics. They enlarge the scope of the robotics discipline yet introduce challenges that must be overcome if that potential is to be fully realized. In short, when the network becomes a design issue - normally when performance of the system is at a premium - networked robotics is at play.

Evaluation of probabilistic occupancy map people detection for surveillance systems

In this paper, we evaluate the Probabilistic Occupancy Map (POM) pedestrian detection algorithm on the PETS 2009 benchmark dataset. POM is a multi-camera generative detection method, which estimates ground plane occupancy from multiple background subtraction views. Occupancy probabilities are iteratively estimated by fitting a synthetic model of the background subtraction to the binary foreground motion. Furthermore, we test the integration of this algorithm into a larger framework designed for understanding human activities in real environments. We demonstrate accurate detection and localization on the PETS dataset, despite suboptimal calibration and foreground motion segmentation input.