Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

Web-based occupant feedback for building energy management systems using fuzzy logic

This paper describes the development and validation of a novel web-based interface for the gathering of feedback from building occupants about their environmental discomfort including signs of Sick Building Syndrome (SBS). The gathering of such feedback may enable better targeting of environmental discomfort down to the individual as well as the early detection and subsequently resolution by building services of more complex issues such as SBS. The occupant's discomfort is interpreted and converted to air-conditioning system set points using Fuzzy Logic. Experimental results from a multi-zone air-conditioning test rig have been included in this paper.

Evaluation of probabilistic occupancy map people detection for surveillance systems

In this paper, we evaluate the Probabilistic Occupancy Map (POM) pedestrian detection algorithm on the PETS 2009 benchmark dataset. POM is a multi-camera generative detection method, which estimates ground plane occupancy from multiple background subtraction views. Occupancy probabilities are iteratively estimated by fitting a synthetic model of the background subtraction to the binary foreground motion. Furthermore, we test the integration of this algorithm into a larger framework designed for understanding human activities in real environments. We demonstrate accurate detection and localization on the PETS dataset, despite suboptimal calibration and foreground motion segmentation input.

Visualizing a logic of dependability arguments

This paper offers general guidelines for the development of effective visual languages. That is, languages for constructing diagrams that can be easily and readily interpreted and manipulated by the human reader. We use these guidelines first to examine classical AND/OR trees as a representation of logical proofs, and second to design and evaluate a visual language for representing proofs in LofA: a Logic of Dependability Arguments, for which we provide a brief motivation and overview.

Autonomous intelligent cruise control using a novel multiple-controller framework incorporating fuzzy-logic-based switching and tuning

This paper presents a novel intelligent multiple-controller framework incorporating a fuzzy-logic-based switching and tuning supervisor along with a generalised learning model (GLM) for an autonomous cruise control application. The proposed methodology combines the benefits of a conventional proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller, and a PID structure-based (simultaneous) zero and pole placement controller. The switching decision between the two nonlinear fixed structure controllers is made on the basis of the required performance measure using a fuzzy-logic-based supervisor, operating at the highest level of the system. The supervisor is also employed to adaptively tune the parameters of the multiple controllers in order to achieve the desired closed-loop system performance. The intelligent multiple-controller framework is applied to the autonomous cruise control problem in order to maintain a desired vehicle speed by controlling the throttle plate angle in an electronic throttle control (ETC) system. Sample simulation results using a validated nonlinear vehicle model are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the multiple-controller with respect to adaptively tracking the desired vehicle speed changes and achieving the desired speed of response, whilst penalising excessive control action. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Classification-based probabilistic modeling of texture transition for fast line search tracking and delineation

We introduce a classification-based approach to finding occluding texture boundaries. The classifier is composed of a set of weak learners, which operate on image intensity discriminative features that are defined on small patches and are fast to compute. A database that is designed to simulate digitized occluding contours of textured objects in natural images is used to train the weak learners. The trained classifier score is then used to obtain a probabilistic model for the presence of texture transitions, which can readily be used for line search texture boundary detection in the direction normal to an initial boundary estimate. This method is fast and therefore suitable for real-time and interactive applications. It works as a robust estimator, which requires a ribbon-like search region and can handle complex texture structures without requiring a large number of observations. We demonstrate results both in the context of interactive 2D delineation and of fast 3D tracking and compare its performance with other existing methods for line search boundary detection.

A forward constrained selection algorithm for probabilistic neural network

A new probabilistic neural network (PNN) learning algorithm based on forward constrained selection (PNN-FCS) is proposed. An incremental learning scheme is adopted such that at each step, new neurons, one for each class, are selected from the training samples arid the weights of the neurons are estimated so as to minimize the overall misclassification error rate. In this manner, only the most significant training samples are used as the neurons. It is shown by simulation that the resultant networks of PNN-FCS have good classification performance compared to other types of classifiers, but much smaller model sizes than conventional PNN.

A multi-level probabilistic neural network

Based on the idea of an important cluster, a new multi-level probabilistic neural network (MLPNN) is introduced. The MLPNN uses an incremental constructive approach, i.e. it grows level by level. The construction algorithm of the MLPNN is proposed such that the classification accuracy monotonically increases to ensure that the classification accuracy of the MLPNN is higher than or equal to that of the traditional PNN. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed new approach.

The implications of service-dominant logic and integrated solutions on the sales function

This study explores the implications of an organization moving toward service-dominant logic (S-D logic) on the sales function. Driven by its customers’ needs, a service orientation by its nature requires personal interaction and sales personnel are in an ideal position to develop offerings with the customer. However, the development of S-D logic may require sales staff to develop additional skills. Employing a single case study, the study identified that sales personnel are quick to appreciate the advantages of S-D logic for customer satisfaction and six specific skills were highlighted and explored. Further, three propositions were identified: in an organization adopting S-D logic, the sales process needs to elicit needs at both embedded-value and value-in-use levels. In addition, the sales process needs to coproduce not just goods and service attributes but also attributes of the customer’s usage processes. Further, the sales process needs to coproduce not just goods and service attributes but also attributes of the customer’s usage processes.