Bayesian estimation of the spatial Durbin error model with an application to voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election

The potential for spatial dependence in models of voter turnout, although plausible from a theoretical perspective, has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Using recent advances in Bayesian computation, we formulate and estimate the previously unutilized spatial Durbin error model and apply this model to the question of whether spillovers and unobserved spatial dependence in voter turnout matters from an empirical perspective. Formal Bayesian model comparison techniques are employed to compare the normal linear model, the spatially lagged X model (SLX), the spatial Durbin model, and the spatial Durbin error model. The results overwhelmingly support the spatial Durbin error model as the appropriate empirical model.

Bilingual 'tagging' of financial accounts in Demotic and Greek

‘Bilingual’ documents, with text in both Demotic and Greek, can be of several sorts, ranging from complete translations of the same information (e.g. Ptolemaic decrees) to those where the information presented in the two languages is complementary (e.g. mummy labels). The texts discussed in this paper consist of a number of examples of financial records where a full account in one language (L1) is annotated with brief pieces of information in a second language (L2). These L2 ‘tags’ are designed to facilitate extraction of summary data at another level of the administration, functioning in a different language, and probably also to make the document accessible to those who are not literate in the L1.

A paradoxical presidency: Nicolas Sarkozy, 2007-2012

The Sarkozy presidency is shot through with paradox and contrast: between a well-elected president swiftly loathed by most voters; a ‘hyper-president’ who probably weakened the office; a talented party leader who lost effective control of his party; a right-wing president who was readily compared to Tony Blair; and an ambitious reformer who promised a clean break with the indecision of his two predecessors but whose record was more timid than his rhetoric. This article interprets Sarkozy’s record in the context of the presidential office, the specific circumstances of his presidency, and of the president’s own personality, skills and shortcomings.

Surviving without leading: Jacques Chirac

The presidency of Jacques Chirac in France (1995-2007) was scarred by two crushing defeats: the parliamentary elections of 25 May and 1 June 1997, and the referendum on the European Constitution of 29 May 2005. As both were highly personal setbacks, since both votes were taken at Chirac’s initiative they suggest that a dominant presidential position, twice won, was twice squandered owing to a failure of leadership. This chapter argues, firstly, that the weaknesses of the presidency arose chiefly from the three decades of Chirac’s career before the 1995 election – and, secondly, that Chirac’s record of presidential leadership, though limited, is more substantial than these two major failures suggest.

Echoes of 1992: the NAFTA negotiations and North America now

Two decades ago, Canada, Mexico, and the United States created a continental economy. The road to integration from the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement has not been a smooth one. Along the way, Mexico lived through a currency crisis, a democratic transition, and the rising challenge of Asian manufacturing. Canada stayed united despite surging Quebecois nationalism during the 1990s; since then, it has seen dramatic economic changes with the explosion of hydrocarbon production and a much stronger currency. The United States saw a stock-market bust, the shock of 9/11, and the near-collapse of its financial system. All of these events have transformed the relationships that emerged after NAFTA entered into force in 1994. Given the tremendous changes, one might be skeptical that the circumstances and details of the negotiation and ratification of NAFTA hold lessons for the future of North America. However, the road to NAFTA had its own difficulties, and many of the issues involved in the negotiations underpin today's challenges. NAFTA was conceived at a time of profound change in the international system. When Mexican leaders surveyed the world two decades ago, they saw emerging regional groupings in Europe, Asia, and South America. Faced with a lack of interest or compatibility, they instead doubled down on North America. How did Mexican leaders reconsider their national interests and redefine Mexico's role in the world in light of those transformations? Unpublished Mexican documents from SECOFI, the secretariate most involved in negotiating NAFTA, help illustrate Mexican thinking about its interests and role at that time. Combining those insights with analysis of newly available evidence from U.S. presidential archives, this paper sheds light on the negotiations that concluded two decades ago.