Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition.

Local versus organic: a turn in consumer preferences and willingness-to-pay

Demand for local food in the United States has significantly increased over the last decade. In an attempt to understand the drivers of this demand and how they have changed over time, we investigate the literature on organic and local foods over the last few decades. We focus our review on studies that allow comparison of characteristics now associated with both local and organic food. We summarize the major findings of these studies and their implications for understanding drivers of local food demand. Prior to the late 1990s, most studies failed to consider factors now associated with local food, and the few that included these factors found very little support for them. In many cases, the lines between local and organic were blurred. Coincident with the development of federal organic food standards, studies began to find comparatively more support for local food as distinct and separate from organic food. Our review uncovers a distinct turn in the demand for local and organic food. Before the federal organic standards, organic food was linked to small farms, animal welfare, deep sustainability, community support, and many other factors that are not associated with most organic foods today. Based on our review, we argue that demand for local food arose largely in response to corporate cooptation of the organic food market and the arrival of “organic lite.” This important shift in consumer preferences away from organic and toward local food has broad implications for the environment and society. If these patterns of consumer preferences prove to be sustainable, producers, activists, and others should be aware of the implications that these trends have for the food system at large.

Integration and segmentation in European investment services markets: assessing the implications for international real estate investment

This paper analyses developments in the growth and configuration of the institutional savings markets within the European Union. The paper discusses the changing socio-economic context in which investment services within the EU are being delivered. The is followed by an examination of drivers of market integration such as the growth and consolidation of the fund management industry, the demographic and fiscal pressures for reform of pensions markets and the process and effects of the deregulation of investment services markets. There is a review of outstanding sources of market segmentation. The projections for future growth in pensions are outlined and implications for real estate investment assessed. It is concluded that, although numerous imponderables render reliable quantitative projections problematic, growth and restructuring of the institutional savings market is likely to increase cross-border capital flows to real estate markets.

Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Self-construals, Symbolic and Hedonic Preferences, and Actual Purchase Behavior

The study explores the influence of the independent and interdependent self-construals on actual purchase behavior and the mediating role of consumer preferences for symbolic and hedonic meanings. Data were collected through a survey of about 1,000 respondents. Results indicate that independent consumers draw on the self/hedonic- and status-symbolic resources of clothing in the construction and expression of their identities. Regarding the interdependent consumers, they show no interest in clothing affiliation and status symbolism. The degree of preference for status-symbolic meaning mediates all effects of the independent and interdependent self-construals on actual purchase behavior; self-expressive/hedonic preferences mediate two of the three effects of the independent self on actual purchase behavior when accounting for suppression effects, whereas the expected mediation of preference for affiliation meaning is not supported.

Optimization algorithms in FMRF model-based segmentation for LIDAR data and co-registered bands

In this paper, a fuzzy Markov random field (FMRF) model is used to segment land-objects into free, grass, building, and road regions by fusing remotely, sensed LIDAR data and co-registered color bands, i.e. scanned aerial color (RGB) photo and near infra-red (NIR) photo. An FMRF model is defined as a Markov random field (MRF) model in a fuzzy domain. Three optimization algorithms in the FMRF model, i.e. Lagrange multiplier (LM), iterated conditional mode (ICM), and simulated annealing (SA), are compared with respect to the computational cost and segmentation accuracy. The results have shown that the FMRF model-based ICM algorithm balances the computational cost and segmentation accuracy in land-cover segmentation from LIDAR data and co-registered bands.

Bis(calix[4]diquinone) receptors: cesium- and rubidium-selective redox-active ionophores

A new class of redox-active ionophore comprised of two calix[4]diquinone moieties connected through either alkylene or pyridylene linkages has been developed. Spectroscopic and electrochemical investigations, X-ray crystal structure analyses, and molecular modeling studies show butylene- and propylene-linked members of this family of redox-active receptors exhibit remarkable selectivity preferences and substantial electrochemical recognition effects toward cesium and rubidium cations.

The British state and the Irish rebellion of 1916: an intelligence failure or an failure of response

The teleological narrative that has dominated the handling of intelligence by the British state in the events that led up to the 1916 Irish Rebellion in Dublin has been characterised as a cocktail of incompetence and mendacity. Using new and existing archive material this article argues that both the cabinet in London and key members of the Irish Executive in Dublin were supplied with accurate and timely intelligence by the Admiralty's signals intelligence unit, the Royal Irish Constabulary and the Dublin Metropolitan Police with respect to this event. Far from being a failure of intelligence here is evidence to show that there occurred a failure of response on behalf of key decision-makers. The warnings that were given by intelligence organisations were filtered through the existing policy preferences and assumptions. As a result of these factors accurate evaluations and sound judgement were not exercised by key officials, such as Sir Matthew Nathan, in Dublin Castle.

An overview of domestic energy models and a new approach with agent based modelling

Government targets for CO2 reductions are being progressively tightened, the Climate Change Act set the UK target as an 80% reduction by 2050 on 1990 figures. The residential sector accounts for about 30% of emissions. This paper discusses current modelling techniques in the residential sector: principally top-down and bottom-up. Top-down models work on a macro-economic basis and can be used to consider large scale economic changes; bottom-up models are detail rich to model technological changes. Bottom-up models demonstrate what is technically possible. However, there are differences between the technical potential and what is likely given the limited economic rationality of the typical householder. This paper recommends research to better understand individuals’ behaviour. Such research needs to include actual choices, stated preferences and opinion research to allow a detailed understanding of the individual end user. This increased understanding can then be used in an agent based model (ABM). In an ABM, agents are used to model real world actors and can be given a rule set intended to emulate the actions and behaviours of real people. This can help in understanding how new technologies diffuse. In this way a degree of micro-economic realism can be added to domestic carbon modelling. Such a model should then be of use for both forward projections of CO2 and to analyse the cost effectiveness of various policy measures.

Social consensus, moral intensity and willingness to pay to address a farm animal welfare issue

An experimental contingent valuation (CV) survey of university students was undertaken to explore the impact of social consensus information on people's stated willingness to pay (wtp) to address a farm animal welfare issue. The survey found that additional information presented to respondents on social consensus concerning the moral dimensions of the issue led to a greater perception of social consensus by respondents. This greater perception of social consensus appeared to result in a higher level of moral intensity associated with the issue and a higher stated wtp by respondents for policy to address the issue. However, as for many CV studies of public goods, a question remains as to whether the estimated wtp is a true measure of people's preferences and relative values or merely a measure of attitudes on an arbitrary monetary scale.

Do national cultural differences affect the nature and characteristics of HRM practices? Evidence from Australian and Hong Kong construction firms on remuneration and job autonomy

Human resource management (HRM) plays a pivotal role in attracting and retaining talents. However, there is growing recognition in international HRM literature that the adoption of the widely accepted US/Harvard-inspired HRM model ignores the influences of cultural contexts on HRM practices in different countries. This notion has not been empirically investigated in the construction industry. Based on survey responses from 604 construction professionals from Australia and Hong Kong, this study examines whether: (i) national cultural differences influence individuals’ preference for types of remuneration and job autonomy, (ii) actual organizational HRM practices reflect such preferences and (iii) gaps between individuals’ preferences and actual organizational HRM practices affect job satisfaction. Results showed significant difference in HRM preferences between Australian and Hong Kong respondents and these are reflected in the distinct types of HRM practices adopted by construction firms in the two countries. Findings further indicated that the gap between individuals’ preferences and actual organizational HRM practices is associated with job satisfaction. The results support existing mainstream research and highlight the deficiency of the acultural treatment of HRM that is still apparent in construction management literature. An uncritical literature in the area not only hinders theory development but also potentially undermines the ability of construction firms to attract, recruit, and retain scarce talents.

Customer service 140 characters at a time: the users’ perspective

Electronic word of mouth (eWoM) has been adopted by Internet users as a way of communicating their consumption preferences and experiences. Consumers are able to reach out to others, unknown to them, and have online conversations that can influence their behaviour. Organisations need to understand how to respond to these brand-related conversations conducted via social media. By looking through the lens of social capital, this paper contributes to social media and social capital research by studying the perceptions that 44 social media users have of companies that interact with them online. The users value social networks and support as part of their online relationships. However, several new value categories are identified when compared to previous research. Further research is required to investigate possible segmentation approaches and alternative methodological choices.

Empirical test of an agricultural landscape model: the importance of farmer preference for risk aversion and crop complexity

Developing models to predict the effects of social and economic change on agricultural landscapes is an important challenge. Model development often involves making decisions about which aspects of the system require detailed description and which are reasonably insensitive to the assumptions. However, important components of the system are often left out because parameter estimates are unavailable. In particular, measurements of the relative influence of different objectives, such as risk, environmental management, on farmer decision making, have proven difficult to quantify. We describe a model that can make predictions of land use on the basis of profit alone or with the inclusion of explicit additional objectives. Importantly, our model is specifically designed to use parameter estimates for additional objectives obtained via farmer interviews. By statistically comparing the outputs of this model with a large farm-level land-use data set, we show that cropping patterns in the United Kingdom contain a significant contribution from farmer’s preference for objectives other than profit. In particular, we found that risk aversion had an effect on the accuracy of model predictions, whereas preference for a particular number of crops grown was less important. While nonprofit objectives have frequently been identified as factors in farmers’ decision making, our results take this analysis further by demonstrating the relationship between these preferences and actual cropping patterns.

Fashion magazines: design implications of focus and perception variance between Chinese and UK females

A growing segment of Chinese women are willing to spend a high percentage of their income on fashion related products, however there appears to be concern over the quality of Chinese fashion magazines. Concern can be focused in two major issues: i) fashion magazine design, and ii) pictorial and textual distribution of content. This paper investigates how human factors (i.e. social norms and individual differences) influence fashion magazine design/format preferences, and investigates the difference in readership patterns between British and Chinese Women. Our study identifies significant differences between UK and Chinese readership; which has an impact on magazine viewing patterns and content preference.