Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.

Purification and molecular cloning of antimicrobial peptides from Scots pine seedlings

A novel protocol for rapid and efficient purification of antimicrobial peptides from plant seedlings has been developed. Two peptides with antimicrobial activity, designated p1 and p2, were purified nearly to homogeneity from Scots pine seedlings by a combination of sulfuric acid extraction, ammonium sulfate precipitation, heat-inactivation and ion-exchange chromatography on phosphocellulose. Purified proteins had molecular masses of 11 kDa (p1) and 5.8 kDa (p2) and were identified by mass spectrometry as defensin and lipid-transfer protein, respectively. We demonstrated their growth inhibitory effects against a group of phytopathogenic fungi. Furthermore, we report for the first time molecular cloning and characterization of defensin I cDNA from Scots pine. A cDNA expression library from 7 days Scots pine seedlings was generated and used to isolate a cDNA clone corresponding to Scots pine defensin, termed PsDef1. The full-length coding sequence of PsDef1 is 252 bp in length and has an open reading frame capable to encode a protein of 83 amino residues. The deduced sequence has the typical features of plant defensins, including an endoplasmic reticulum signal sequence of 33 aa, followed by a characteristic defensin domain of 50 amino acids representing its active form. The calculated molecular weight of the mature form of PsDef1 is 5601.6 Da, which correlates well with the results of SDS-PAGE analysis. Finally, the antimicrobial properties of PsDef1 against a panel of fungi and bacteria define it as a member of the morphogenic group of plant defensins. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting solar disturbance effects on navigation systems

A variety of operational systems are vulnerable to disruption by solar disturbances brought to the Earth by the solar wind. Of particular importance to navigation systems are energetic charged particles which can generate temporary malfunctions and permanent damage in satellites. Modern spacecraft technology may prove to be particularly at risk during the next maximum of the solar cycle. In addition, the associated ionospheric disturbances cause phase shifts of transionospheric and ionosphere-reflected signals, giving positioning errors and loss of signal for GPS and Loran-C positioning systems and for over-the-horizon radars. We now have sufficient understanding of the solar wind, and how it interacts with the Earth's magnetic field, to predict statistically the likely effects on operational systems over the next solar cycle. We also have a number of advanced ways of detecting and tracking these disturbances through space but we cannot, as yet, provide accurate forecasts of individual disturbances that could be used to protect satellites and to correct errors. In addition, we have recently discovered long-term changes in the Sun, which mean that the number and severity of the disturbances to operational systems are increasing.