A new method for the determination of Holocene palaeohydrology

This paper describes a new method for the assessment of palaeohydrology through the Holocene. A palaeoclimate model was linked with a hydrological model, using a weather generator to correct bias in the rainfall estimates, to simulate the changes in the flood frequency and the groundwater response through the late Pleistocene and Holocene for the Wadi Faynan in southern Jordan, a site considered internationally important due to its rich archaeological heritage spanning the Pleistocene and Holocene. This is the first study to describe the hydrological functioning of the Wadi Faynan, a meso-scale (241 km2) semi-arid catchment, setting this description within the framework of contemporary archaeological investigations. Historic meteorological records were collated and supplemented with new hydrological and water quality data. The modelled outcomes indicate that environmental changes, such as deforestation, had a major impact on the local water cycle and this amplified the effect of the prevailing climate on the flow regime. The results also show that increased rainfall alone does not necessarily imply better conditions for farming and highlight the importance of groundwater. The discussion focuses on the utility of the method and the importance of the local hydrology to the sustained settlement of the Wadi Faynan through pre-history and history.

Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels

Climate change projections are usually presented as 'snapshots' of change at a particular time in the future. Instead, we consider the key question 'when will specific temperature thresholds will be exceeded?'. Framing the question as "when might something happen (either permanently or temporarily)?" rather than "what might happen?" demonstrates that lowering future emissions will delay the crossing of temperature thresholds and buy valuable time for planning adaptation. For example, in higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios, a global average 2°C warming threshold is likely to be crossed by 2060, whereas in a lower emissions scenario, the crossing of this threshold is delayed up to several decades. On regional scales, however, the 2°C threshold will probably be exceeded over large parts of Eurasia, North Africa and Canada by 2040 if emissions continue to increase- well within the lifetime of many people living now.

Pedosedimentary, cultural and environmental significance of palaeosols within Pre-Hispanic agricultural terraces in the southern Peruvian Andes

Paleosols were exposed in sections through four abandoned pre-Hispanic agricultural terraces surrounding an infilled mire basin in the southern Peruvian Andes. The two paleosols beneath the Tocotoccasa terrace represent the original ‘natural’ solum and a later soil formed after construction of the agricultural terrace, probably during the early Middle Horizon cultural period (615–695 AD). The soil at the current surface developed subsequent to the building up and reconstruction of the terrace, possibly during the late Late Intermediate period (1200–1400 AD). Micromorphology revealed an unexpected abundance of clay coatings within the upper terrace paleosol and surface terrace soil, a phenonemon attributed to the migration and/or accumulation of neoformed clay produced from the weathering of very unstable volcanic clasts, perhaps fuelled by arid/humid climatic oscillations and/or seasonal input of irrigation waters. The paleosols at Tocotoccasa could not be correlated with any degree of confidence with those beneath the other three terraces due to differences in pedosedimentary properties and uncertainties over chronological controls. Thus, it seems likely that either the terraces were (re)constructed and utilised over different cultural periods or that there is significant variation in the extent of weathering of material used for reconstruction of the terraces. Unfortunately, it cannot be ascertained from the data available whether the terraces were abandoned for any significant period of time prior to reconstruction and, if so, whether this was a regional phenomenon related to climate, social, or economic changes.

Prizes for modernity in the provinces: The Arts Council’s 1950-1951 regional playwriting competition

As part of its contribution to the 1951 Festival of Britain, the Arts Council ran what can be seen in retrospect to be an important playwriting competition. Disregarding the London stage entirely, it invited regional theatres throughout the UK to put forward nominations for new plays within their repertoire for 1950-1951. Each of the five winning plays would receive, what was then, the substantial sum of £100. Originality and innovation featured highly amongst the selection criteria, with 40 per cent of the judges’ marks being awarded for “interest of subject matter and inventiveness of treatment”. This article will assess some of the surprising outcomes of the competition and argue that it served as an important nexus point in British theatrical historiography between two key moments in post-war Britain: the first being the inauguration of the Festival of Britain in 1951, the other being the debut of John Osborne’s Look Back in Anger in May 1956. The article will also argue that the Arts Council’s play competition was significant for two other reasons. By circumventing the London stage, it provides a useful tool by which to reassess the state of new writing in regional theatre at the beginning of the 1950s and to question how far received views of parochialism and conservatism held true. The paper will also put forward a case for the competition significantly anticipating the work of George Devine at the English Stage Company, which during its early years established a reputation for itself by heavily exploiting the repertoire of new plays originally commissioned by regional theatres. This article forms part of a five year funded Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) project, ‘Giving Voice to the Nation: The Arts Council of Great Britain and the Development of Theatre and Performance in Britain 1945-1994’. Details of the Arts Council’s archvie, which is housed at the Victoria & Albert Museum in London can be found at http://www.vam.ac.uk/vastatic/wid/ead/acgb/acgbf.html Keywords: Arts Council of Great Britain, regional theatre, playwriting, Festival of Britain, English Stage Company (Royal Court) , Yvonne Mitchell

Risk assessment of UK skylark populations using life-history and individual-based landscape models

Abstract: Following a workshop exercise, two models, an individual-based landscape model (IBLM) and a non-spatial life-history model were used to assess the impact of a fictitious insecticide on populations of skylarks in the UK. The chosen population endpoints were abundance, population growth rate, and the chances of population persistence. Both models used the same life-history descriptors and toxicity profiles as the basis for their parameter inputs. The models differed in that exposure was a pre-determined parameter in the life-history model, but an emergent property of the IBLM, and the IBLM required a landscape structure as an input. The model outputs were qualitatively similar between the two models. Under conditions dominated by winter wheat, both models predicted a population decline that was worsened by the use of the insecticide. Under broader habitat conditions, population declines were only predicted for the scenarios where the insecticide was added. Inputs to the models are very different, with the IBLM requiring a large volume of data in order to achieve the flexibility of being able to integrate a range of environmental and behavioural factors. The life-history model has very few explicit data inputs, but some of these relied on extensive prior modelling needing additional data as described in Roelofs et al.(2005, this volume). Both models have strengths and weaknesses; hence the ideal approach is that of combining the use of both simple and comprehensive modeling tools.

Pre-Columbian raised-field agriculture and land use in the Bolivian Amazon

We present an integrated palaeoecological and archaeobotanical study of pre-Columbian raised-field agriculture in the Llanos de Moxos, a vast seasonally inundated forest–savanna mosaic in the Bolivian Amazon. Phytoliths from excavated raised-field soil units, together with pollen and charcoal in sediment cores from two oxbow lakes, were analysed to provide a history of land use and agriculture at the El Cerro raised-field site. The construction of raised fields involved the removal of savanna trees, and gallery forest was cleared from the area by AD 310. Despite the low fertility of Llanos de Moxos soils, we determined that pre-Columbian raised-field agriculture sufficiently improved soil conditions for maize cultivation. Fire was used as a common management practice until AD 1300, at which point, the land-use strategy shifted towards less frequent burning of savannas and raised fields. Alongside a reduction in the use of fire, sweet potato cultivation and the exploitation of Inga fruits formed part of a mixed resource strategy from AD 1300 to 1450. The pre-Columbian impact on the landscape began to lessen around AD 1450, as shown by an increase in savanna trees and gallery forest. Although agriculture at the site began to decline prior to European arrival, the abandonment of raised fields was protracted, with evidence of sweet potato cultivation occurring as late as AD 1800.

Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: a new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration

Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database is now available for regional fire history reconstructions, data exploration, hypothesis testing, and evaluation of coupled climate–vegetation–fire model simulations. The charcoal database contains over 400 radiocarbon-dated records that document changes in charcoal abundance during the Late Quaternary. The aim of this public database is to stimulate cross-disciplinary research in fire sciences targeted at an increased understanding of the controls and impacts of natural and anthropogenic fire regimes on centennial-to-orbital timescales. We describe here the data standardization techniques for comparing multiple types of sedimentary charcoal records. Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database has been used to characterize global and regional patterns in fire activity since the last glacial maximum. Recent studies using the charcoal database have explored the relation between climate and fire during periods of rapid climate change, including evidence of fire activity during the Younger Dryas Chronozone, and during the past two millennia.

Environmental impact of geometric earthwork construction in pre-Columbian Amazonia

There is considerable controversy over whether pre-Columbian (pre-A.D. 1492) Amazonia was largely “pristine” and sparsely populated by slash-and-burn agriculturists, or instead a densely populated, domesticated landscape, heavily altered by extensive deforestation and anthropogenic burning. The discovery of hundreds of large geometric earthworks beneath intact rainforest across southern Amazonia challenges its status as a pristine landscape, and has been assumed to indicate extensive pre-Columbian deforestation by large populations. We tested these assumptions using coupled local- and regional-scale paleoecological records to reconstruct land use on an earthwork site in northeast Bolivia within the context of regional, climate-driven biome changes. This approach revealed evidence for an alternative scenario of Amazonian land use, which did not necessitate labor-intensive rainforest clearance for earthwork construction. Instead, we show that the inhabitants exploited a naturally open savanna landscape that they maintained around their settlement despite the climatically driven rainforest expansion that began ∼2,000 y ago across the region. Earthwork construction and agriculture on terra firme landscapes currently occupied by the seasonal rainforests of southern Amazonia may therefore not have necessitated large-scale deforestation using stone tools. This finding implies far less labor—and potentially lower population density—than previously supposed. Our findings demonstrate that current debates over the magnitude and nature of pre-Columbian Amazonian land use, and its impact on global biogeochemical cycling, are potentially flawed because they do not consider this land use in the context of climate-driven forest–savanna biome shifts through the mid-to-late Holocene.

Pre-Raphaelitism, science and the arts in 'The Germ'

This article demonstrates for the first time how dense the references to science are within the Pre-Raphaelite periodical 'The Germ' (1850). By reading the essays from this magazine together, as they were first published, it is possible to see how thoroughly the Pre-Raphaelites theorised their artistic project in terms of a particular mid-Victorian ideal of science. At the same time, the magazine became a forum in which the question of how far the arts ought to take account of science could be debated. In this debate, the competing visions of Pre-Raphaelitism discussed in Holman Hunt’s later accounts of the movement can be seen emerging at a very early stage in its history.

Regional and monthly and clear-sky aerosol direct radiative effect (and forcing) derived from the GlobAEROSOL-AATSR satellite aerosol product

Using the GlobAEROSOL-AATSR dataset, estimates of the instantaneous, clear-sky, direct aerosol radiative effect and radiative forcing have been produced for the year 2006. Aerosol Robotic Network sun-photometer measurements have been used to characterise the random and systematic error in the GlobAEROSOL product for 22 regions covering the globe. Representative aerosol properties for each region were derived from the results of a wide range of literature sources and, along with the de-biased GlobAEROSOL AODs, were used to drive an offline version of the Met Office unified model radiation scheme. In addition to the mean AOD, best-estimate run of the radiation scheme, a range of additional calculations were done to propagate uncertainty estimates in the AOD, optical properties, surface albedo and errors due to the temporal and spatial averaging of the AOD fields. This analysis produced monthly, regional estimates of the clear-sky aerosol radiative effect and its uncertainty, which were combined to produce annual, global mean values of (−6.7±3.9)Wm−2 at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and (−12±6)Wm−2 at the surface. These results were then used to give estimates of regional, clear-sky aerosol direct radiative forcing, using modelled pre-industrial AOD fields for the year 1750 calculated for the AEROCOM PRE experiment. However, as it was not possible to quantify the uncertainty in the pre-industrial aerosol loading, these figures can only be taken as indicative and their uncertainties as lower bounds on the likely errors. Although the uncertainty on aerosol radiative effect presented here is considerably larger than most previous estimates, the explicit inclusion of the major sources of error in the calculations suggest that they are closer to the true constraint on this figure from similar methodologies, and point to the need for more, improved estimates of both global aerosol loading and aerosol optical properties.