On the natural variability of the pre-industrial European climate

We suggest that climate variability in Europe for the “pre-industrial” period 1500–1900 is fundamentally a consequence of internal fluctuations of the climate system. This is because a model simulation, using fixed pre-industrial forcing, in several important aspects is consistent with recent observational reconstructions at high temporal resolution. This includes extreme warm and cold seasonal events as well as different measures of the decadal to multi-decadal variance. Significant trends of 50-year duration can be seen in the model simulation. While the global temperature is highly correlated with ENSO (El Nino- Southern Oscillation), European seasonal temperature is only weakly correlated with the global temperature broadly consistent with data from ERA-40 reanalyses. Seasonal temperature anomalies of the European land area are largely controlled by the position of the North Atlantic storm tracks. We believe the result is highly relevant for the interpretation of past observational records suggesting that the effect of external forcing appears to be of secondary importance. That variations in the solar irradiation could have been a credible cause of climate variations during the last centuries, as suggested in some previous studies, is presumably due to the fact that the models used in these studies may have underestimated the internal variability of the climate. The general interpretation from this study is that the past climate is just one of many possible realizations and thus in many respects not reproducible in its time evolution with a general circulation model but only reproducible in a statistical sense.

Use of fibrolytic enzymes to improve the nutritive value of ruminant diets - A biochemical and in vitro rumen degradation assessment

Two commercial enzyme products, Depol 40 (D) and Liquicell 2500 (L), were characterised from a biochemical standpoint and their potential to improve rumen degradation of forages was evaluated in vitro. Enzyme activities were determined at pH 5.5 and 39 degreesC. Analysis of the enzyme activities indicated that L contained higher xylanase and endoglucanase, but lower exoglucanase, pectinase and alpha-amylase activities than D. The Reading Pressure Technique (RPT) was used to investigate the effect of enzyme addition on the in vitro gas production (GP) and organic matter degradation (OMD) of alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) stems and leaves. A completely randomised design with factorial arrangement of treatments was used. Both alfalfa fractions were untreated or treated with each enzyme at four levels, 20 h before incubation with rumen fluid. Each level of enzyme provided similar amounts of filter paper (D1, L1), endoglucanase (D2, L2), alpha-L-arabinofuranosidase (D3, L3) and xylanase units (D4, L4) per gram forage DM. Enzymes increased the initial OMD in both fractions, with improvements of up to 15% in leaves (D4) and 8% in stems (L2) after 12 h incubation. All enzyme treatments increased the extent of degradation (96 h incubation) in the leaf fractions, but only L2 increased final OMD in the stems. Direct hydrolysis of forage fractions during the pre-treatment period did not fully account for the magnitude of the increases in OMD, suggesting that the increase in rate of degradation was achieved through a combined effect of direct enzyme hydrolysis and synergistic action between the exogenous (applied) and endogenous (rumen) enzymes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of exogenous fibrolytic enzyme level and incubation pH on the in vitro ruminal fermentation of alfalfa stems

A series of in vitro experiments was carried out to examine the impact of enzyme application rate and incubation medium pH on the rate and extent of fermentation of alfalfa stems. In Experiment 1, a commercial enzyme product (Liquicell 2500, Specialty Enzyme and Biochemicals, Fresno, CA, USA) was added to alfalfa stems at six levels: 0, 0.51, 1.02, 2.55, 5.1, and 25.5 mu l/g (control and L1-L5, respectively) to forage DM in a completely randomized design, with a factorial arrangement of treatments. Rate and extent of fermentation and apparent organic matter degradation (OMD) were determined in vitro, using a gas production technique. Addition of enzyme linearly increased (P < 0.01) gas production for up to 12 h (68.9, 70.9, 67.6, 67.9, 71.9, and 74.9 ml/g OM for control, L1-L5, respectively) and OMD for up to 19 h incubation (0.425, 0.444, 0.433, 0.446, 0.443, and 0.451 for control, L1-L5, respectively), but no increases (P > 0.05) were detected thereafter. In Experiment 2, the effect of the same enzyme as used previously (added at 0.51 mu l/g forage DM, directly into the incubation medium), and buffer pH were examined using the ANKOM system, in a completely randomized design. Incubation medium pH was altered using 1 M citric acid, in order to obtain target initial pH values of 6.8 (control, no citric acid added), 6.2, 5.8, and 5.4. Actual initial pH values achieved were 6.72, 6.50, 6.20, and 5.72. Lowering the pH decreased (P < 0.01) dry matter disappearance (DMD) at 18 h incubation (0.339, 0.341, 0.314, and 0.291 for 6.72, 6.50, 6.20, and 5.72, respectively), whereas enzyme addition increased (P < 0.05) DMD at 24 h (0.363 versus 0.387 for control and enzyme-treated, respectively). Addition of enzyme increased (P < 0.05) neutral detergent fibre (NDF), acid detergent fibre (ADF), and hemicellulose (HC) degradation at pH 6.50 (0.077 versus 0.117; 0.020 versus 0.051; 0.217 versus 0.270 for control and enzyme-treated NDF, ADF and hemicellulose degradation, respectively) and 6.72 (0.091 versus 0.134; 0.041 versus 0.079; 0.205 versus 0.261 for control and enzyme-treated NDF, ADF and HC degradation, respectively). It is concluded that the positive effects of this enzyme product were independent of the pre-treatment period, but pH influenced the responses to enzyme supplementation. Under the conditions of this experiment, exogenous fibrolytic enzymes seemed to work better at close to neutrality ruminal pH conditions. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Metabolic profiles and progesterone cycles in first lactation dairy cows

This study investigated the ovarian function, metabolic profiles and fertility in first lactation Holstein-Friesian dairy cows (mean 305 day milk yield: 7417 +/- 191 kg, n = 37). Reproductive profiles obtained from milk progesterone analysis were categorized into normal (n = 17) and four abnormal profiles (delayed ovulation, DOV1, n = 9; DOV2, n = 2; persistent corpus luteum, PCL1, n = 6; PCL2, n = 4; 1: immediately post-calving, 2: subsequent cycles). Fifty-five percent of cows had abnormal profiles with half of these being categorized as DOV1. Fertility of DOV1 and DOV2 cows was reduced whereas PCL1 and PCL2 cows had similar reproductive competence to normal profile cows. DOV1 animals had higher milk energy values, lower energy balances, lower dry matter intakes (DMI) and greater body weight and body condition score (BCS) losses post-calving than normal profile animals. DOV1 animals also had lower insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and higher betahydroxybutyrate (BHB) concentrations and tended to have the lower insulin and glucose concentrations in the pre-service period than normal profile cows. All PCL animals had vulval discharges postpartum. Despite this, the DMI, body weight and BCS changes, IGF-I concentrations and fertility of PCL1 animals was similar to normal profile cows. In conclusion, the high prevalence of delayed ovulation post-calving (DOV1) in primiparous high yielding cows lasted long enough (71 +/- 8.3 days) to have a detrimental impact on fertility and was associated with significant physiological changes. This study did not establish any detrimental effects of PCL profiles on fertility or production parameters. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Artificial diet for aphids - thirty years' experience

Myzus persicae (Sulzer) was reared continuously for over thirty years (until it died out in December 2008) on a totally defined synthetic artificial diet, the procedure for which is described. Development time was extended on diet compared with rearing on Brussels sprout plants (Brassica oleracea L. var. gemmifera L.), and generation time was further increased by an added pre-reproductive period of 4 days. Fecundity was reduced by about two-thirds, and mean relative growth rate in weight (MRGR) was only 60% in comparison with plant-reared aphids. Applying 2 kg/cm(2) pressure to a 10% sucrose solution extended the adult longevity of Aphis fabae Scopoli by less than I day. In contrast, a short experience of half-strength diet Caused a sharp rise in honeydew excretion by A. fabae for several hours, and alternating full-strength diet with diluted diets (including water) Caused a greater weight increase. The poor performance of aphids on diet thus seems to have a behavioural rather than a mechanical explanation. The diet, designed to give optimal performance of the aphids, has proved not to be useful for nutritional studies, as any change is deleterious. Areas of aphid research where the diet has been useful, however, are studies on repellents/attractants/toxins, role of symbionts, maintenance of genotype collections, work on parasitoid behaviour in relation to plant chemistry, and collection of aphid saliva.

The impact of sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei on the British fox Vulpes vulpes population

1. Disease epizootics can significantly influence host population dynamics and the structure and functioning of ecological communities. Sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei has dramatically reduced red fox populations Vulpes vulpes in several countries, including Britain, although impacts on demographic processes are poorly understood. We review the literature on the impact of mange on red fox populations, assess its current distribution in Britain through a questionnaire survey and present new data on resultant demographic changes in foxes in Bristol, UK. 2. A mange epizootic in Sweden spread across the entire country in < 10 years resulting in a decline in fox density of up to 95%; density remained lowered for 15–20 years. In Spain, mange has been enzootic for > 75 years and is widely distributed; mange presence was negatively correlated with habitat quality. 3. Localized outbreaks have occurred sporadically in Britain during the last 100 years. The most recent large-scale outbreak arose in the 1990s, although mange has been present in south London and surrounding environs since the 1940s. The questionnaire survey indicated that mange was broadly distributed across Britain, but areas of perceived high prevalence (> 50% affected) were mainly in central and southern England. Habitat type did not significantly affect the presence/absence of mange or perceived prevalence rates. Subjective assessments suggested that populations take 15–20 years to recover. 4. Mange appeared in Bristol's foxes in 1994. During the epizootic phase (1994–95), mange spread through the city at a rate of 0.6–0.9 km/month, with a rise in infection in domestic dogs Canis familiaris c. 1–2 months later. Juvenile and adult fox mortality increased and the proportion of females that reproduced declined but litter size was unaffected. Population density declined by > 95%. 5. In the enzootic phase (1996–present), mange was the most significant mortality factor. Juvenile mortality was significantly higher than in the pre-mange period, and the number of juveniles classified as dispersers declined. Mange infection reduced the reproductive potential of males and females: females with advanced mange did not breed; severely infected males failed to undergo spermatogenesis. In 2004, Bristol fox population density was only 15% of that in 1994.

Verb retrieval in fluent aphasia: a clinical study

Background: Problems with lexical retrieval are common across all types of aphasia but certain word classes are thought to be more vulnerable in some aphasia types. Traditionally, verb retrieval problems have been considered characteristic of non-fluent aphasias but there is growing evidence that verb retrieval problems are also found in fluent aphasia. As verbs are retrieved from the mental lexicon with syntactic as well as phonological and semantic information, it is speculated that an improvement in verb retrieval should enhance communicative abilities in this population as in others. We report on an investigation into the effectiveness of verb treatment for three individuals with fluent aphasia. Methods & Procedures: Multiple pre-treatment baselines were established over 3 months in order to monitor language change before treatment. The three participants then received twice-weekly verb treatment over approximately 4 months. All pre-treatment assessments were administered immediately after treatment and 3 months post-treatment. Outcome & Results: Scores fluctuated in the pre-treatment period. Following treatment, there was a significant improvement in verb retrieval for two of the three participants on the treated items. The increase in scores for the third participant was statistically nonsignificant but post-treatment scores moved from below the normal range to within the normal range. All participants were significantly quicker in the verb retrieval task following treatment. There was an increase in well-formed sentences in the sentence construction test and in some samples of connected speech. Conclusions: Repeated systematic treatment can produce a significant improvement in verb retrieval of practised items and generalise to unpractised items for some participants. An increase in well-formed sentences is seen for some speakers. The theoretical and clinical implications of the results are discussed.

A double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized human study assessing the capacity of a novel galacto-oligosaccharide mixture in reducing travellers' diarrhoea.

Background/Objectives: Prebiotics have attracted interest for their ability to positively affect the colonic microbiota composition, thus increasing resistance to infection and diarrhoeal disease. This study assessed the effectiveness of a prebiotic galacto-oligosaccharide mixture (B-GOS) on the severity and/or incidence of travellers' diarrhoea (TD) in healthy subjects. Subjects/Methods: The study was a placebo-controlled, randomized, double blind of parallel design in 159 healthy volunteers, who travelled for minimum of 2 weeks to a country of low or high risk for TD. The investigational product was the B-GOS and the placebo was maltodextrin. Volunteers were randomized into groups with an equal probability of receiving either the prebiotic or placebo. The protocol comprised of a 1 week pre-holiday period recording bowel habit, while receiving intervention and the holiday period. Bowel habit included the number of bowel movements and average consistency of the stools as well as occurrence of abdominal discomfort, flatulence, bloating or vomiting. A clinical report was completed in the case of diarrhoeal incidence. A post-study questionnaire was also completed by all subjects on their return. Results: Results showed significant differences between the B-GOS and the placebo group in the incidence (P<0.05) and duration (P<0.05) of TD. Similar findings occurred on abdominal pain (P<0.05) and the overall quality of life assessment (P<0.05). Conclusions: Consumption of the tested galacto-oligosaccharide mixture showed significant potential in preventing the incidence and symptoms of TD.

Liquidity in commercial property markets: deconstructing the transaction process

This paper draws from a wider research programme in the UK undertaken for the Investment Property Forum examining liquidity in commercial property. One aspect of liquidity is the process by which transactions occur including both how properties are selected for sale and the time taken to transact. The paper analyses data from three organisations; a property company, a major financial institution and an asset management company, formally a major public sector pension fund. The data covers three market states and includes sales completed in 1995, 2000 and 2002 in the UK. The research interviewed key individuals within the three organisations to identify any common patterns of activity within the sale process and also identified the timing of 187 actual transactions from inception of the sale to completion. The research developed a taxonomy of the transaction process. Interviews with vendors indicated that decisions to sell were a product of a combination of portfolio, specific property and market based issues. Properties were generally not kept in a “readiness for sale” state. The average time from first decision to sell the actual property to completion had a mean time of 298 days and a median of 190 days. It is concluded that this study may underestimate the true length of the time to transact for two reasons. Firstly, the pre-marketing period is rarely recorded in transaction files. Secondly, and more fundamentally, studies of sold properties may contain selection bias. The research indicated that vendors tended to sell properties which it was perceived could be sold at a ‘fair’ price in a reasonable period of time.

Past and recent changes in the North Atlantic oscillation

The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is under current climate conditions the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability over the North Atlantic region. While the pattern is present during the entire year, it is most important during winter, explaining a large part of the variability of the large-scale pressure field, being thus largely determinant for the weather conditions over the North Atlantic basin and over Western Europe. In this study, a review of recent literature on the basic understanding of the NAO, its variability on different time scales and driving physical mechanisms is presented. In particular, the observed NAO variations and long-term trends are put into a long term perspective by considering paleo-proxy evidence. A representative number of recently released NAO reconstructions are discussed. While the reconstructions agree reasonably well with observations during the instrumental overlapping period, there is a rather high uncertainty between the different reconstructions for the pre-instrumental period, which leads to partially incoherent results, that is, periods where the NAO reconstructions do not agree even in sign. Finally, we highlight the future need of a broader definition of the NAO, the assessment of the stability of the teleconnection centers over time, the analysis of the relations to other relevant variables like temperature and precipitation, as well as on the relevant processes involved

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Price discovery of credit spreads in tranquil and crisis periods

In this paper we investigate the price discovery process in single-name credit spreads obtained from bond, credit default swap (CDS), equity and equity option prices. We analyse short term price discovery by modelling daily changes in credit spreads in the four markets with a vector autoregressive model (VAR). We also look at price discovery in the long run with a vector error correction model (VECM). We find that in the short term the option market clearly leads the other markets in the sub-prime crisis (2007-2009). During the less severe sovereign debt crisis (2009-2012) and the pre-crisis period, options are still important but CDSs become more prominent. In the long run, deviations from the equilibrium relationship with the option market still lead to adjustments in the credit spreads observed or implied from other markets. However, options no longer dominate price discovery in any of the periods considered. Our findings have implications for traders, credit risk managers and financial regulators.

Celtic censure: representing Wales in eighteenth-century Germany

Drawing on Pierre Bourdieu's notion of regionalist discourse as the performative legitimation of specific frontiers, this article examines how the English traveller Samuel Jackson Pratt mediated a picture of the Welsh to late eighteenth-century readers in his Gleanings Through Wales, Holland and Westphalia (1795). This process of mediation was further complicated by the translation of this work into German as the Aehrenlese auf einer Reise durch Wallis, which appeared with the Leipzig publisher Lincke in 1798. While this work made an important contribution to German Celtophilia in the Romantic period, the German translator was careful to omit its more Sternean passages, in favour of factual narrative. Pratt's account of his travel through Wales, mediated in turn to a German audience through its Leipzig translator, therefore embodies several layers of cultural transfer that generate a complex and multifaceted image of Wales at the close of the eighteenth century.

Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.