The impact of real estate on the terminal wealth of the UK mixed-asset portfolio

The argument for the inclusion of real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio has concentrated on examining its effect in reducing the portfolio risk - the time series standard deviation (TSSD), mainly using ex-post time series data. However, the past as such is not really relevant to the long-term institutional investors, such as the insurance companies and pension funds, who are more concerned the terminal wealth (TW) of their investments and the variability of this wealth, the terminal wealth standard deviation (TWSD), since it is from the TW of their investment portfolio that policyholders and pensioners will derive their benefits. These kinds of investors with particular holding period requirements will be less concerned about the within period volatility of their portfolios and more by the possibility that their portfolio returns will fail to finance their liabilities. This variability in TW will be closely linked to the risk of shortfall in the quantity of assets needed to match the institution’s liabilities. The question remains therefore can real estate enhance the TW of the mixed-asset portfolio and/or reduce the variability of the TW. This paper uses annual data from the United Kingdom (UK) for the period 1972-2001 to test whether real estate is an asset class that not only reduces ex-post portfolio risk but also enhances portfolio TW and/or reduces the variability of TW.

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Innovative implementation of iLearn e-Portfolio for Personal Development Planning

iLearn is a Web 2.0 tool developed in Blackboard to help students with Personal Development Planning (PDP). This paper describes a case study on how the innovative use of mobile digital technology in iLearn e-Portfolio for developing reflective portfolios for PDP benefits the students. The e-Portfolio tool benefits students as it enables them to create and share portfolios, record achievements and reflections that support future job applications and promotion. Students find it beneficial because they can make use of iLearn e-Portfolio to keep academic records and achievements, activities and interests, work experience, reflective practice, employer information and some other useful resources, and also to tailor their CV and covering letters including evidence to support their CV, transferable skills and selling points. Useful information for preparing for an interview, reflecting after an event and any thoughts and evaluation can be kept in iLearn e-Portfolio. Keeping assessment and feedback records in iLearn e-Portfolio enables students to know their progress, to identify any gaps they need to fill to develop their study practices and areas for development. The key points from the feedback on the assignments and assessments are beneficial for future improvement. The reflections on the assignments and how students make use of the advice are particularly useful to improve their overall performance. In terms of pedagogical benefits, the “Individual Learner Profile” records and reviews evidence in verbal communication, basic and higher academic skills, time management, numeracy skill and IT skills, students become increasingly aware of their own strengths and any weaker areas that may require development. The e-Portfolio also provides opportunity for students to reflect on the experience and skills they have gained whilst participating in activities outside their studies. As the iLearn e-Portfolio is a reflective practice tool, it is consistent with the principle of Schon's reflective practitioner to reframe problems and to explore the consequences of actions. From the students’ feedback, for those who engage regularly in iLearn, they are better able to set agendas for their Personal Tutorial meetings and provide their Personal Tutor with a unique record of their achievements, skills and attributes which help them writing effective references for them. They make the most of their student experience in general. They also enhance their transferable skills and employability overall. The iLearn e-Portfolio prepares for the workplace and life beyond University including continuing professional development. Students are aware of their transferable skills, evidence of the skills and skill level, including award or accreditation, and their personal reflection on their transferable skills. It is beneficial for students to be aware of their transferable skills, to produce evidence of the skills and skills level such as award and accreditation, and to record their personal reflection on their transferable skills. Finally, the innovative use of mobile digital technology in iLearn e-Portfolio for developing reflective portfolios for PDP will improve their employability.

Innovative use of e-portfolio for personal development

iLearn is a quasi-Web 2.0 tool developed in Blackboard to help users with Personal Development Planning (PDP). This paper describes a case study on how the innovative use of mobile digital technology in iLearn e-Portfolio for developing reflective portfolios for PDP benefits the users, who are training to be professionals in construction management and surveying, The e-Portfolio tool benefits users as it enables them to create and share portfolios, record achievements and reflections that support future job applications and promotion. Users find it beneficial because they can make use of iLearn e-Portfolio to keep academic records and achievements, activities and interests, work experience, reflective practice, employer information and some other useful resources, and also to tailor their CV and covering letters including evidence to support their CV, transferable skills and selling points. Useful information for preparing for an interview, reflecting after an event and any thoughts and evaluation can be kept in iLearn e-Portfolio. Keeping assessment and feedback records in iLearn e-Portfolio enables learners to know their progress, to identify any gaps they need to fill to develop their study practices and areas for development. The key points from the feedback on the assignments and assessments are beneficial for future improvement. The reflections on the tasks and how they make use of the advice are particularly useful to improve their overall performance. In terms of pedagogical benefits, the “Individual Learner Profile” records and reviews evidence in verbal communication, basic and higher academic skills, time management, numeracy skill and IT skills, learners become increasingly aware of their own strengths and any weaker areas that may require development. The e-Portfolio also provides opportunity for them to reflect on the experience and skills they have gained whilst participating in activities outside their studies. As the iLearn e-Portfolio is a reflective practice tool, it is consistent with the principle of Schon's reflective practitioner to reframe problems and to explore the consequences of actions. From the users’ feedback, for those who engage regularly in iLearn, they are better able to set agendas for their supervision meetings and provide their supervisor with a unique record of their achievements, skills and attributes which help them writing effective references for them. They make the most of their learning experience in general. They also enhance their transferable skills and employability overall. The iLearn e-Portfolio prepares them for the workplace including continuing professional development. Users are aware of their transferable skills, evidence of the skills and skill level, including award or accreditation, and their personal reflection on their transferable skills. It is beneficial for them to be aware of their transferable skills, to produce evidence of the skills and skills level such as award and accreditation, and to record their personal reflection on their transferable skills. Finally, the innovative use of mobile digital technology in iLearn e-Portfolio for developing reflective portfolios for PDP will improve their employability.

Risk pricing practices in finance, insurance and construction

A review of current risk pricing practices in the financial, insurance and construction sectors is conducted through a comprehensive literature review. The purpose was to inform a study on risk and price in the tendering processes of contractors: specifically, how contractors take account of risk when they are calculating their bids for construction work. The reference to mainstream literature was in view of construction management research as a field of application rather than a fundamental academic discipline. Analytical models are used for risk pricing in the financial sector. Certain mathematical laws and principles of insurance are used to price risk in the insurance sector. construction contractors and practitioners are described to traditionally price allowances for project risk using mechanisms such as intuition and experience. Project risk analysis models have proliferated in recent years. However, they are rarely used because of problems practitioners face when confronted with them. A discussion of practices across the three sectors shows that the construction industry does not approach risk according to the sophisticated mechanisms of the two other sectors. This is not a poor situation in itself. However, knowledge transfer from finance and insurance can help construction practitioners. But also, formal risk models for contractors should be informed by the commercial exigencies and unique characteristics of the construction sector.

The impact of exchanges rates on international real estate portfolio allocation

This paper, examines whether the asset holdings and weights of an international real estate portfolio using exchange rate adjusted returns are essentially the same or radically different from those based on unadjusted returns. The results indicate that the portfolio compositions produced by exchange rate adjusted returns are markedly different from those based on unadjusted returns. However following the introduction of the single currency the differences in portfolio composition are much less pronounced. The findings have a practical consequence for the investor because they suggest that following the introduction of the single currency international investors can concentrate on the real estate fundamentals when making their portfolio choices, rather than worry about the implications of exchange rate risk.