The effects of environmental perturbation and measurement error on estimates of the shape parameter in the theta-logistic model of population regulation

The theta-logistic is a widely used generalisation of the logistic model of regulated biological processes which is used in particular to model population regulation. Then the parameter theta gives the shape of the relationship between per-capita population growth rate and population size. Estimation of theta from population counts is however subject to bias, particularly when there are measurement errors. Here we identify factors disposing towards accurate estimation of theta by simulation of populations regulated according to the theta-logistic model. Factors investigated were measurement error, environmental perturbation and length of time series. Large measurement errors bias estimates of theta towards zero. Where estimated theta is close to zero, the estimated annual return rate may help resolve whether this is due to bias. Environmental perturbations help yield unbiased estimates of theta. Where environmental perturbations are large, estimates of theta are likely to be reliable even when measurement errors are also large. By contrast where the environment is relatively constant, unbiased estimates of theta can only be obtained if populations are counted precisely Our results have practical conclusions for the design of long-term population surveys. Estimation of the precision of population counts would be valuable, and could be achieved in practice by repeating counts in at least some years. Increasing the length of time series beyond ten or 20 years yields only small benefits. if populations are measured with appropriate accuracy, given the level of environmental perturbation, unbiased estimates can be obtained from relatively short censuses. These conclusions are optimistic for estimation of theta. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Restricted dispersal reduces the strength of spatial density dependence in a tropical bird population

Spatial processes could play an important role in density-dependent population regulation because the disproportionate use of poor quality habitats as population size increases is widespread in animal populations-the so-called buffer effect. While the buffer effect patterns and their demographic consequences have been described in a number of wild populations, much less is known about how dispersal affects distribution patterns and ultimately density dependence. Here, we investigated the role of dispersal in spatial density dependence using an extraordinarily detailed dataset from a reintroduced Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) population with a territorial (despotic) breeding system. We show that recruitment rates varied significantly between territories, and that territory occupancy was related to its recruitment rate, both of which are consistent with the buffer effect theory. However, we also show that restricted dispersal affects the patterns of territory occupancy with the territories close to release sites being occupied sooner and for longer as the population has grown than the territories further away. As a result of these dispersal patterns, the strength of spatial density dependence is significantly reduced. We conclude that restricted dispersal can modify spatial density dependence in the wild, which has implications for the way population dynamics are likely to be impacted by environmental change.

Graeme Caughley and the fundamentals of population ecology: a personal view

Caughley's contributions to single-species population ecology are here discussed in the light of some of the ideas and studies his work elicited, with particular reference to influences on my own work and that of my collaborators. Major themes are the manner and extent of population regulation; the alternate perspectives on population regulation that are obtained by density-dependence analyses and mechanistic analyses in terms of food availability and other causal factors; and ways in which mechanistic analyses can be elaborated to characterise a species' ecological niche and relate it to the species' geographic range.

Effects of plant pathogens on population dynamics and community composition in grassland ecosystems: two case studies

Grassland ecosystems comprise a major portion of the earth’s terrestrial surface, ranging from high-input cultivated monocultures or simple species mixtures to relatively unmanaged but dynamic systems. Plant pathogens are a component of these systems with their impact dependent on many interacting factors, including grassland species population dynamics and community composition, the topics covered in this paper. Plant pathogens are affected by these interactions and also act reciprocally by modifying their nature. We review these features of disease in grasslands and then introduce the 150-year long-term Park Grass Experiment (PGE) at Rothamsted Research in the UK. We then consider in detail two plant-pathogen systems present in the PGE, Tragopogon pratensis-Puccinia hysterium and Holcus lanata-Puccinia coronata. These two systems have very different life history characteristics: the first, a biennial member of the Asteraceae infected by its host-specific, systemic rust; the second, a perennial grass infected by a host-non-specific rust. We illustrate how observational, experimental and modelling studies can contribute to a better understanding of population dynamics, competitive interactions and evolutionary outcomes. With Tragopogon pratensis-Puccinia hysterium, characterised as an “outbreak” species in the PGE, we show that pathogen-induced mortality is unlikely to be involved in host population regulation; and that the presence of even a short-lived seed-bank can affect the qualitative outcomes of the host-pathogen dynamics. With Holcus lanata-Puccinia coronata, we show how nutrient conditions can affect adaptation in terms of host defence mechanisms, and that co-existence of competing species affected by a common generalist pathogen is unlikely.

Interference competition and high temperature reduce the ‘virulence’ of fig wasps and contribute to stability of a fig-wasp mutualism

Fig trees are pollinated by fig wasps, which also oviposit in female flowers. The wasp larvae gall and eat developing seeds. Although fig trees benefit from allowing wasps to oviposit, because the wasp offspring disperse pollen, figs must prevent wasps from ovipositing in all flowers, or seed production would cease, and the mutualism would go extinct. In Ficus racemosa, we find that syconia (‘figs’) that have few foundresses (ovipositing wasps) are underexploited in the summer (few seeds, few galls, many empty ovules) and are overexploited in the winter (few seeds, many galls, few empty ovules). Conversely, syconia with many foundresses produce intermediate numbers of galls and seeds, regardless of season. We use experiments to explain these patterns, and thus, to explain how this mutualism is maintained. In the hot summer, wasps suffer short lifespans and therefore fail to oviposit in many flowers. In contrast, cooler temperatures in the winter permit longer wasp lifespans, which in turn allows most flowers to be exploited by the wasps. However, even in winter, only in syconia that happen to have few foundresses are most flowers turned into galls. In syconia with higher numbers of foundresses, interference competition reduces foundress lifespans, which reduces the proportion of flowers that are galled. We further show that syconia encourage the entry of multiple foundresses by delaying ostiole closure. Taken together, these factors allow fig trees to reduce galling in the wasp-benign winter and boost galling (and pollination) in the wasp-stressing summer. Interference competition has been shown to reduce virulence in pathogenic bacteria. Our results show that interference also maintains cooperation in a classic, cooperative symbiosis, thus linking theories of virulence and mutualism. More generally, our results reveal how frequency-dependent population regulation can occur in the fig-wasp mutualism, and how a host species can ‘set the rules of the game’ to ensure mutualistic behavior in its symbionts.

Behavioral and spatial analysis of extraterritorial movements in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes)

Abstract: Movements away from the natal or home territory are important to many ecological processes, including gene flow, population regulation, and disease epidemiology, yet quantitative data on these behaviors are lacking. Red foxes exhibit 2 periods of extraterritorial movements: when an individual disperses and when males search neighboring territories for extrapair copulations during the breeding season. Using radiotracking data collected at 5-min interfix intervals, we compared movement parameters, including distance moved, speed of movement, and turning angles, of dispersal and reproductive movements to those made during normal territorial movements; the instantaneous separation distances of dispersing and extraterritorial movements to the movements of resident adults; and the frequency of locations of 95%, 60%, and 30% harmonic mean isopleths of adult fox home territories to randomly generated fox movements. Foxes making reproductive movements traveled farther than when undertaking other types of movement, and dispersal movements were straighter. Reproductive and dispersal movements were faster than territorial movements and also differed in intensity of search and thoroughness. Foxes making dispersal movements avoided direct contact with territorial adults and moved through peripheral areas of territories. The converse was true for reproductive movements. Although similar in some basic characteristics, dispersal and reproductive movements are fundamentally different both behaviorally and spatially and are likely to have different ultimate purposes and contrasting effects on spatial processes such as disease transmission

Cognitive emotion regulation as a mediator between posttraumatic stress symptoms and hypomanic personality within a non-clinical population

Background: There is a high prevalence of traumatic life events within individuals diagnosed with bipolar disorder. However, currently there is limited theoretical understanding of this relationship. Aims: To explore whether non-clinical symptoms of posttraumatic stress have a direct effect on the non-clinical symptoms of bipolar disorder, or whether this relationship is mediated by cognitive emotion regulation strategies. Method: A cross-sectional design within non-clinical participants completing an online survey including the Impact of Events Scale, Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire and the Hypomanic Personality Scale. Results: Posttraumatic stress symptoms were associated with hypomanic personality. Intrusive memories contributed a small but significant proportion of the variance between these two measures. Rumination of negative emotions mediated the relationship between posttraumatic stress and hypomanic personality. Conclusions: The relationship between traumatic events and an increased prevalence of bipolar disorder remains poorly understood. Further research should explore rumination as a potential target for treatment within those suffering from both posttraumatic stress and bipolar disorder.

The origin, molecular regulation and therapeutic potential of myogenic stem cell populations

Satellite cells, originating in the embryonic dermamyotome, reside beneath the myofibre of mature adult skeletal muscle and constitute the tissue-specific stem cell population. Recent advances following the identification of markers for these cells (including Pax7, Myf5, c-Met and CD34) (CD, cluster of differentiation; c-Met, mesenchymal epithelial transition factor) have led to a greater understanding of the role played by satellite cells in the regeneration of new skeletal muscle during growth and following injury. In response to muscle damage, satellite cells harbour the ability both to form myogenic precursors and to self-renew to repopulate the stem cell niche following myofibre damage. More recently, other stem cell populations including bone marrow stem cells, skeletal muscle side population cells and mesoangioblasts have also been shown to have myogenic potential in culture, and to be able to form skeletal muscle myofibres in vivo and engraft into the satellite cell niche. These cell types, along with satellite cells, have shown potential when used as a therapy for skeletal muscle wasting disorders where the intrinsic stem cell population is genetically unable to repair non-functioning muscle tissue. Accurate understanding of the mechanisms controlling satellite cell lineage progression and self-renewal as well as the recruitment of other stem cell types towards the myogenic lineage is crucial if we are to exploit the power of these cells in combating myopathic conditions. Here we highlight the origin, molecular regulation and therapeutic potential of all the major cell types capable of undergoing myogenic differentiation and discuss their potential therapeutic application.

Response to comment on "On the regulation of populations of mammals, birds, fish, and insects"

Our conclusions are unaffected by removal of the time series identified by Peacock and Garshelis as harvest data. The relationship between a population's growth rate and its size is generally concave in mammals, irrespective of their body sizes. However, our data set includes quality data for only five mammals larger than 20 kilograms, so strong conclusions cannot be made about these animals.

Response to comments on "On the regulation of populations of mammals, birds, fish, and insects"

The technical comments by Getz and Lloyd-Smith, Ross, and Doncaster focus on specific aspects of our analysis and estimation and do not demonstrate any results opposing our key conclusion-that, contrary to what was previously believed, the relation between a population's growth rate (pgr) and its density is generally concave.

On the regulation of populations of mammals, birds, fish, and insects

A key unresolved question in population ecology concerns the relationship between a population's size and its growth rate. We estimated this relationship for 1780 time series of mammals, birds, fish, and insects. We found that rates of population growth are high at low population densities but, contrary to previous predictions, decline rapidly with increasing population size and then flatten out, for all four taxa. This produces a strongly concave relationship between a population's growth rate and its size. These findings have fundamental implications for our understanding of animals' lives, suggesting in particular that many animals in these taxa will be found living at densities above the carrying capacity of their environments.

Characterisation of cyclin D1 down-regulation in coronavirus infected cells

The positive strand RNA coronavirus, infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), induces a G2/M phase arrest and reduction in the G1 and G1/S phase transition regulator cyclin D1. Quantitative real-time RT-PCR and Western blot analysis demonstrated that cyclin D1 was reduced post-transcriptionally within infected cells independently of the cell-cycle stage at the time of infection. Confocal microscopy revealed that cyclin D1 decreased in IBV-infected cells as infection progressed and inhibition studies indicated that a population of cyclin D1 could be targeted for degradation by a virus mediated pathway. In contrast to the SARS-coronavirus, IBV nucleocapsid protein did not interact with cyclin D1. (c) 2007 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Direct experimental evidence that early-life farm environment influences regulation of immune responses

Background: In mammals, early-life environmental variations appear to affect microbial colonization and therefore competent immune development, and exposure to farm environments in infants has been inversely correlated with allergy development. Modelling these effects using manipulation of neonatal rodents is difficult due to their dependency on the mother, but the relatively independent piglet is increasingly identified as a valuable translational model for humans. This study was designed to correlate immune regulation in piglets with early-life environment. Methods: Piglets were nursed by their mother on a commercial farm, while isolatorreared siblings were formula fed. Fluorescence immunohistology was used to quantify T-reg and effector T-cell populations in the intestinal lamina propria and the systemic response to food proteins was quantified by capture ELISA. Results: There was more CD4+ and CD4+CD25+ effector T-cell staining in the intestinal mucosa of the isolator-reared piglets compared with their farm-reared counterparts. In contrast, these isolator-reared piglets had a significantly reduced CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ regulatory T-cell population compared to farm-reared littermates, resulting in a significantly higher T-reg-to-effector ratio in the farm animals. Consistent with these findings, isolator-reared piglets had an increased serum IgG anti-soya response to novel dietary soya protein relative to farm-reared piglets. Conclusion: Here, we provide the first direct evidence, derived from intervention, that components of the early-life environment present on farms profoundly affects both local development of regulatory components of the mucosal immune system and immune responses to food proteins at weaning. We propose that neonatal piglets provide a tractable model which allows maternal and treatment effects to be statistically separated.

Regulation of early steps of GPVI signal transduction by phosphatases: a systems biology approach

We present a data-driven mathematical model of a key initiating step in platelet activation, a central process in the prevention of bleeding following Injury. In vascular disease, this process is activated inappropriately and causes thrombosis, heart attacks and stroke. The collagen receptor GPVI is the primary trigger for platelet activation at sites of injury. Understanding the complex molecular mechanisms initiated by this receptor is important for development of more effective antithrombotic medicines. In this work we developed a series of nonlinear ordinary differential equation models that are direct representations of biological hypotheses surrounding the initial steps in GPVI-stimulated signal transduction. At each stage model simulations were compared to our own quantitative, high-temporal experimental data that guides further experimental design, data collection and model refinement. Much is known about the linear forward reactions within platelet signalling pathways but knowledge of the roles of putative reverse reactions are poorly understood. An initial model, that includes a simple constitutively active phosphatase, was unable to explain experimental data. Model revisions, incorporating a complex pathway of interactions (and specifically the phosphatase TULA-2), provided a good description of the experimental data both based on observations of phosphorylation in samples from one donor and in those of a wider population. Our model was used to investigate the levels of proteins involved in regulating the pathway and the effect of low GPVI levels that have been associated with disease. Results indicate a clear separation in healthy and GPVI deficient states in respect of the signalling cascade dynamics associated with Syk tyrosine phosphorylation and activation. Our approach reveals the central importance of this negative feedback pathway that results in the temporal regulation of a specific class of protein tyrosine phosphatases in controlling the rate, and therefore extent, of GPVI-stimulated platelet activation.