Tephra fallout hazard assessment for a Plinian eruption scenario at Volcán de Colima (Mexico)

Volcanic ash fallout associated with renewal of explosive activity at Colima, represents a serious threat to the surrounding urbanized area. Here we assess the tephra fallout hazard associated with a Plinian eruption scenario. The eruptive history of Volcán de Colima shows that Plinian eruptions occur approximately every 100 years and the last eruption, the 1913, represents the largest historic eruption of this volcano. We used the last eruption as a reference to discuss volcanic hazard and risk scenarios connected with ash fallout. Tephra fallout deposits are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the advection– diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic particles. Based on a statistical study of wind profiles at Colima region, we first reconstructed ash loading maps and then computed ground load probability maps for different seasons. The obtained results show that a Plinian eruptive scenario at Volcán de Colima, could seriously damage more than 10 small towns and ranches, and potentially affect big cities located at tens of kilometers from the eruptive center. The probability maps obtained are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies

Ultra-distal tephra deposits from super-eruptions: examples from Toba, Indonesia and Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

Voluminous rhyolitic eruptions from Toba, Indonesia, and Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ), New Zealand, have dispersed volcanic ash over vast areas in the late Quaternary. The ~74 ka Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT) eruption deposited ash over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian subcontinent to the west. The ~340 ka Whakamaru eruption (TVZ) deposited the widespread Rangitawa Tephra, dominantly to the southeast (in addition to occurrences northwest of vent), extending across the landmass of New Zealand, and the South Pacific Ocean and Tasman Sea, with distal terrestrial exposures on the Chatham Islands. These super-eruptions involved ~2500 km^3 and ~1500 km3 of magma (dense-rock equivalent; DRE), respectively. Ultra-distal terrestrial exposures of YTT at two localities in India, Middle Son Valley, Madhya Pradesh, and Jurreru River Valley, Andhra Pradesh, at distances of >2000 km from the source caldera, show a basal ‘primary’ ashfall unit ~4 cm thick, although deposits containing reworked ash are up to ~3 m in total thickness. Exposures of Rangitawa Tephra on the Chatham Islands, >900 km from the source caldera, are ~15-30 cm thick. At more proximal localities (~200 km from source), Rangitawa Tephra is ~55-70 cm thick and characterized by a crystal-rich basal layer and normal grading. Both distal tephra deposits are characterized by very-fine ash (with high PM10 fractions) and are crystal-poor. Glass chemistry, stratigraphy and grain-size data for these distal tephra deposits are presented with comparisons of their correlation, dispersal and preservation. Using field observations, ash transport and deposition were modeled for both eruptions using a semi-analytical model (HAZMAP), with assumptions concerning average wind direction and strength during eruption, column shape and vent size. Model outputs provide new insights into eruption dynamics and better estimates of eruption volumes associ- ated with tephra fallout. Modeling based on observed YTT distal tephra thicknesses indicate a relatively low (<40 km high), very turbulent eruption column, consistent with deposition from a co-ignimbrite cloud extending over a broad region. Similarly, the Whakamaru eruption was modeled as producing a predominantly Plinian column (~45 km high), with dispersal to the southeast by strong prevailing winds. Significant ash fallout of the main dispersal direction, to the northwest of source, cannot be replicated in this modeling. The widespread dispersal of large volumes of fine ash from both eruptions may have had global environmental consequences, acutely affecting areas up to thousands of kilometers from vent.

Numerical simulation of tephra transport and deposition of the 1982 El Chichón eruption and implications for hazard assessment

El Chichón volcano, Chiapas, Mexico, erupted explosively on March 29th, 1982, after a repose period of about 550 years. Amongst ten eruptive episodes documented between March 29th and April 4th, only the three that occurred on March 29th and April 4th produced significant pyroclastic tephra deposits. Here we use analytical (HAZMAP) and numerical (FALL3D) tephra transport models to reconstruct the deposits and the atmospheric plume dispersal associated with the three main fallout units of the 1982 eruption. On the basis of such a reconstruction, we produce hazard maps of tephra fallout associated to a Plinian eruption and discuss the implications of such a severe eruption scenario.