Effect of ENSO phase on large-scale snow water equivalent distribution in a GCM

Understanding links between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and snow would be useful for seasonal forecasting, but also for understanding natural variability and interpreting climate change predictions. Here, a 545-year run of the general circulation model HadCM3, with prescribed external forcings and fixed greenhouse gas concentrations, is used to explore the impact of ENSO on snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies. In North America, positive ENSO events reduce the mean SWE and skew the distribution towards lower values, and vice versa during negative ENSO events. This is associated with a dipole SWE anomaly structure, with anomalies of opposite sign centered in western Canada and the central United States. In Eurasia, warm episodes lead to a more positively skewed distribution and the mean SWE is raised. Again, the opposite effect is seen during cold episodes. In Eurasia the largest anomalies are concentrated in the Himalayas. These correlations with February SWE distribution are seen to exist from the previous June-July-August (JJA) ENSO index onwards, and are weakly detected in 50-year subsections of the control run, but only a shifted North American response can be detected in the anaylsis of 40 years of ERA40 reanalysis data. The ENSO signal in SWE from the long run could still contribute to regional predictions although it would be a weak indicator only

Puroindoline-b mutations control the lipid binding interactions in mixed puroindoline-a: puroindoline-b systems

The interactions have been investigated of puroindoline-a (Pin-a) and mixed protein systems of Pin-a and wild-type puroindoline-b (Pin-b+) or puroindoline-b mutants (G46S mutation (Pin bH) or W44R mutation (Pin-bS)) with condensed phase monolayers of an anionic phospholipid (L-α-dipalmitoylphosphatidyl-dl-glycerol (DPPG)) at the air/water interface. The interactions of the mixed systems were studied at three different concentration ratios of Pin-a:Pin-b, namely 3:1, 1:1 and 1:3 in order to establish any synergism in relation to lipid binding properties. Surface pressure measurements revealed that Pin-a interaction with DPPG monolayers led to an equilibrium surface pressure increase of 8.7 ± 0.6 mN m-1. This was less than was measured for Pin-a:Pin-b+ (9.6 to 13.4 mN m-1), but was significantly more than was measured for Pin-a:Pin-bH (4.0 to 6.2 mN m-1) or Pin-a:Pin-bS (3.8 to 6.3 mN m-1) over the complete range of concentration ratio. Consequently, surface pressure increases were shown to correlate to endosperm hardness phenotype, with puroindolines present in hard-textured wheat varieties yielding lower equilibrium surface pressure changes. Integrated amide I peak areas from corresponding external reflectance Fourier-transform infrared (ER-FTIR) spectra, used to indicate levels of protein adsorption to the lipid monolayers, showed that differences in adsorbed amount were less significant. The data therefore suggest that Pin-b mutants having single residue substitutions within their tryptophan-rich loop that are expressed in some hard-textured wheat varieties influence the degree of penetration of Pin-a and Pin-b into anionic phospholipid films. These findings highlight the key role of the tryptophan-rich loop in puroindoline-lipid interactions.

Sequential designs for phase III clinical trials incorporating treatment selection

Most statistical methodology for phase III clinical trials focuses on the comparison of a single experimental treatment with a control. An increasing desire to reduce the time before regulatory approval of a new drug is sought has led to development of two-stage or sequential designs for trials that combine the definitive analysis associated with phase III with the treatment selection element of a phase II study. In this paper we consider a trial in which the most promising of a number of experimental treatments is selected at the first interim analysis. This considerably reduces the computational load associated with the construction of stopping boundaries compared to the approach proposed by Follman, Proschan and Geller (Biometrics 1994; 50: 325-336). The computational requirement does not exceed that for the sequential comparison of a single experimental treatment with a control. Existing methods are extended in two ways. First, the use of the efficient score as a test statistic makes the analysis of binary, normal or failure-time data, as well as adjustment for covariates or stratification straightforward. Second, the question of trial power is also considered, enabling the determination of sample size required to give specified power. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An adaptive group sequential design for phase II/III clinical trials that select a single treatment from several

There is increasing interest in combining Phases II and III of clinical development into a single trial in which one of a small number of competing experimental treatments is ultimately selected and where a valid comparison is made between this treatment and the control treatment. Such a trial usually proceeds in stages, with the least promising experimental treatments dropped as soon as possible. In this paper we present a highly flexible design that uses adaptive group sequential methodology to monitor an order statistic. By using this approach, it is possible to design a trial which can have any number of stages, begins with any number of experimental treatments, and permits any number of these to continue at any stage. The test statistic used is based upon efficient scores, so the method can be easily applied to binary, ordinal, failure time, or normally distributed outcomes. The method is illustrated with an example, and simulations are conducted to investigate its type I error rate and power under a range of scenarios.

A Bayesian approach for dose-escalation in a phase I clinical trial incorporating pharmacodynamic endpoints

Bayesian decision procedures have already been proposed for and implemented in Phase I dose-escalation studies in healthy volunteers. The procedures have been based on pharmacokinetic responses reflecting the concentration of the drug in blood plasma and are conducted to learn about the dose-response relationship while avoiding excessive concentrations. However, in many dose-escalation studies, pharmacodynamic endpoints such as heart rate or blood pressure are observed, and it is these that should be used to control dose-escalation. These endpoints introduce additional complexity into the modeling of the problem relative to pharmacokinetic responses. Firstly, there are responses available following placebo administrations. Secondly, the pharmacodynamic responses are related directly to measurable plasma concentrations, which in turn are related to dose. Motivated by experience of data from a real study conducted in a conventional manner, this paper presents and evaluates a Bayesian procedure devised for the simultaneous monitoring of pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic responses. Account is also taken of the incidence of adverse events. Following logarithmic transformations, a linear model is used to relate dose to the pharmacokinetic endpoint and a quadratic model to relate the latter to the pharmacodynamic endpoint. A logistic model is used to relate the pharmacokinetic endpoint to the risk of an adverse event.

Control of cocoa swollen shoot disease by eradicating infected trees in Ghana: A survey of treated and replanted areas

Cocoa farms that had been treated and replanted in Ghana during the most recent phase of the cocoa swollen shoot virus (CSSV) eradication campaign were surveyed. Farms that were replanted close to adjoining old cocoa farms or which contained old trees were common in most (38) of the 41 cocoa farms surveyed. CSSV infections were apparent in 20 (53%) out of these 38 farms and they pose a serious risk of causing early infections of the re-planted farms. Control strategies that isolate the newly planted farms by a boundary of immune crops as barriers to reduce CSSV re-infection are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Local roles of TGF-beta superfamily members in the control of ovarian follicle development

Members of the transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) superfamily have wide-ranging influences on many tissue and organ systems including the ovary. Two recently discovered TGF-beta superfamily members, growth/differentiation factor-9 (GDF-9) and bone morphogenetic protein-15 (BMP-15; also designated as GDF-9B) are expressed in an oocyte-specific manner from a very early stage and play a key role in promoting follicle growth beyond the primary stage. Follicle growth to the small antral stage does not require gonadotrophins but appears to be driven by local autocrine/paracrine signals from both somatic cell types (granulosa and theca) and from the oocyte. TGF-beta superfamily members expressed by follicular cells and implicated in this phase of follicle development include TGF-beta, activin, GDF-9/9B and several BMPs. Acquisition of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) responsiveness is a pre-requisite for growth beyond the small antral stage and evidence indicates an autocrine role for granulosa-derived activin in promoting granulosa cell proliferation, FSH receptor expression and aromatase activity. Indeed, some of the effects of FSH on granulosa cells may be mediated by endogenous activin. At the same time, activin may act on theca cells to attenuate luteinizing hormone (LH)-dependent androgen production in small to medium-size antral follicles. Dominant follicle selection appears to depend on differential FSH sensitivity amongst a growing cohort of small antral follicles. Activin may contribute to this selection process by sensitizing those follicles with the highest "activin tone" to FSH. Production of inhibin, like oestradiol, increases in selected dominant follicles, in an FSH- and insulin-like growth factor-dependent manner and may exert a paracrine action on theca cells to upregulate LH-induced secretion of androgen, an essential requirement for further oestradiol secretion by the pre-ovulatory follicle. Like activin, BMP-4 and -7 (mostly from theca), and BMP-6 (mostly from oocyte), can enhance oestradiol and inhibin secretion by bovine granulosa cells while suppressing progesterone secretion; this suggests a functional role in delaying follicle luteinization and/or atresia. Follistatin, on the other hand, may favor luteinization and/or atresia by bio-neutralizing intrafollicular activin and BMPs. Activin receptors are expressed by the oocyte and activin may have a further intrafollicular role in the terminal stages of follicle differentiation to promote oocyte maturation and developmental competence. In a reciprocal manner, oocyte-derived GDF-9/9B may act on the surrounding cumulus granulosa cells to attenuate oestradiol output and promote progesterone and hyaluronic acid production, mucification and cumulus expansion.(C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Self-assembly of two-component gels: stoichiometric control and component selection

Two-component systems capable of self-assembling into soft gel-phase materials are of considerable interest due to their tunability and versatility. This paper investigates two-component gels based on a combination of a L-lysine-based dendron and a rigid diamine spacer (1,4-diaminobenzene or 1,4-diaminocyclohexane). The networked gelator was investigated using thermal measurements, circular dichroism, NMR spectroscopy and small angle neutron scattering (SANS) giving insight into the macroscopic properties, nanostructure and molecular-scale organisation. Surprisingly, all of these techniques confirmed that irrespective of the molar ratio of the components employed, the "solid-like" gel network always consisted of a 1:1 mixture of dendron/diamine. Additionally, the gel network was able to tolerate a significant excess of diamine in the "liquid-like" phase before being disrupted. In the light of this observation, we investigated the ability of the gel network structure to evolve from mixtures of different aromatic diamines present in excess. We found that these two-component gels assembled in a component-selective manner, with the dendron preferentially recognising 1,4-diaminobenzene (>70%). when similar competitor diamines (1,2- and 1,3-diaminobenzene) are present. Furthermore, NMR relaxation measurements demonstrated that the gel based oil 1,4-diaminobenzene was better able to form a selective ternary complex with pyrene than the gel based oil 1,4-diaminocyclohexane, indicative of controlled and selective pi-pi interactions within a three-component assembly. As such, the results ill this paper demonstrate how component selection processes in two-component gel systems call control hierarchical self-assembly.

Prospects for bio-molecular control using femtosecond transients parametrised in the wavelet domain [poster]

We discuss the parametrisation of am-plitude and phase genes corre-sponding to space encoded femto-second transients in the wavelet domain. Differential evolution is used to improve the speed of con-vergence of the genetic algorithm. We discuss prospects of bio-molecular control using such methodology.

'Flat phase' PID controllers

Flat Phase PID Controllers have the property that the phase of the transfer function round the associated feedback loop is constant or flat around the design frequency, with the aim that the phase margin and overshoot to a step response is unaffected when the gain of the device under control changes. Such designs have been achieved using Bode Integrals and by ensuring the phase is the same at two frequencies. This paper extends the ‘two frequency’ controller and describes a novel three frequency controller. The different design strategies arc compared.