Using continuous ground-based radar and lidar measurements for evaluating the representation of clouds in four operational models

The ability of four operational weather forecast models [ECMWF, Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle model (ARPEGE), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), and Met Office] to generate a cloud at the right location and time (the cloud frequency of occurrence) is assessed in the present paper using a two-year time series of observations collected by profiling ground-based active remote sensors (cloud radar and lidar) located at three different sites in western Europe (Cabauw. Netherlands; Chilbolton, United Kingdom; and Palaiseau, France). Particular attention is given to potential biases that may arise from instrumentation differences (especially sensitivity) from one site to another and intermittent sampling. In a second step the statistical properties of the cloud variables involved in most advanced cloud schemes of numerical weather forecast models (ice water content and cloud fraction) are characterized and compared with their counterparts in the models. The two years of observations are first considered as a whole in order to evaluate the accuracy of the statistical representation of the cloud variables in each model. It is shown that all models tend to produce too many high-level clouds, with too-high cloud fraction and ice water content. The midlevel and low-level cloud occurrence is also generally overestimated, with too-low cloud fraction but a correct ice water content. The dataset is then divided into seasons to evaluate the potential of the models to generate different cloud situations in response to different large-scale forcings. Strong variations in cloud occurrence are found in the observations from one season to the same season the following year as well as in the seasonal cycle. Overall, the model biases observed using the whole dataset are still found at seasonal scale, but the models generally manage to well reproduce the observed seasonal variations in cloud occurrence. Overall, models do not generate the same cloud fraction distributions and these distributions do not agree with the observations. Another general conclusion is that the use of continuous ground-based radar and lidar observations is definitely a powerful tool for evaluating model cloud schemes and for a responsive assessment of the benefit achieved by changing or tuning a model cloud

Penser la strategie de l'Antiquité à nos jours

Déjà utilisé dans un sens large à Byzance au VIe, le terme « stratégie » ne tut adopté en Europe occidentale qu’au XVIIIe siècle. Dans cet ouvrage, l’auteur définit la stratégie est une voie globale pour parvenir à des fins politiques, utilisant la menace ou l’usage effectif de la force et prenant en compte les moyens disponibles, mais aussi les valeurs et les objectifs des adversaires, dans une dialectique des volontés des adversaires. Ces variables sont au centre de cet ouvrage. Depuis Aristote et la notion de guerre juste développée par Augustin d’Hippone et Thomas d’Aquin, jusqu’au « paradigme napoléonien », qui a dominé la stratégie et la guerre à partir de la fin de l’époque moderne, et le concept de la guerre totale de Ludendorff, Béatrice Heuser expose l’évolution d’un discours sur la guerre et sa justification (ou non) comme recherche de la paix. Si, après Napoléon et Clausewitz, la victoire militaire apparaît comme le but ultime de tout conflit, à partir de la Première Guerre mondiale, et surtout de l’utilisation de la bombe atomique en 1945, les stratégistes redécouvrent l’importance de penser la paix après la guerre, le « paradigme de la paix ». Les développements de la stratégie navale, puis des stratégies aériennes et nucléaires, ainsi que les concepts de petite guerre ou de guérilla, qui dominent l’actualité, prennent leur place dans cette histoire de la stratégie, ou « comment les hommes ont pensé la guerre .

The origins of small wars: from special operations to ideological insurgencies

This edited volume explores the origins of the term small wars and traces it to special operations. In the 17th century, such "guerrilla/petite guerre" special operations grew out of training and winter operations of the regular forces as practiced in the 16th century. In the 18th century, they fused with a tradition going back to Antiquity, of employing special ethnic groups (such as the Hungarian Hussars) for special operations. Side by side with these special operations, however, there was the even older genealogy of uprisings and insurgencies, which since the Spanish Guerrilla of 1808-1812 has been associated with this term. All three traditions have influenced each other.