The effects of environmental perturbation and measurement error on estimates of the shape parameter in the theta-logistic model of population regulation

The theta-logistic is a widely used generalisation of the logistic model of regulated biological processes which is used in particular to model population regulation. Then the parameter theta gives the shape of the relationship between per-capita population growth rate and population size. Estimation of theta from population counts is however subject to bias, particularly when there are measurement errors. Here we identify factors disposing towards accurate estimation of theta by simulation of populations regulated according to the theta-logistic model. Factors investigated were measurement error, environmental perturbation and length of time series. Large measurement errors bias estimates of theta towards zero. Where estimated theta is close to zero, the estimated annual return rate may help resolve whether this is due to bias. Environmental perturbations help yield unbiased estimates of theta. Where environmental perturbations are large, estimates of theta are likely to be reliable even when measurement errors are also large. By contrast where the environment is relatively constant, unbiased estimates of theta can only be obtained if populations are counted precisely Our results have practical conclusions for the design of long-term population surveys. Estimation of the precision of population counts would be valuable, and could be achieved in practice by repeating counts in at least some years. Increasing the length of time series beyond ten or 20 years yields only small benefits. if populations are measured with appropriate accuracy, given the level of environmental perturbation, unbiased estimates can be obtained from relatively short censuses. These conclusions are optimistic for estimation of theta. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

The effect of postnatal depression on mother-infant interaction, infant response to the still-face perturbation, and performance on an instrumental learning task

A representative community sample of primiparous depressed women and a nondepressed control group were assessed while in interaction with their infants at 2 months postpartum. At 3 months, infants were assessed on the Still-face perturbation of face to face interaction, and a subsample completed an Instrumental Learning paradigm. Compared to nondepressed women, depressed mothers' interactions were both less contingent and less affectively attuned to infant behavior. Postnatal depression did not adversely affect the infant's performance in either the Still-face perturbation or the Instrumental Learning assessment. Maternal responsiveness in interactions at 2 months predicted the infant's performance in the Instrumental Learning assessment but not in the Still-face perturbation. The implications of these findings for theories of infant cognitive and emotional development are discussed.

Stereoscopic acuity and observation distance

The amount of depth perceived from a fixed pattern of horizontal disparities varies with viewing distance. We investigated whether thresholds for discriminating stereoscopic corrugations at a range of spatial frequencies were also affected by viewing distance or whether they were determined solely by the angular disparity in the stimulus prior to scaling. Although thresholds were found to be determined primarily by disparity over a broad range of viewing distances, they were on average a factor of two higher at the shortest viewing distance (28.5 cm) than at larger viewing distances (57 to 450 cm). We found the same pattern of results when subjects' accommodation was arranged to be the same at all viewing distances. The change in thresholds at close distances is in the direction expected if subjects' performance is limited by a minimum perceived depth.

Theoretical insight into diagnosing observation error correlations using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

To improve the quantity and impact of observations used in data assimilation it is necessary to take into account the full, potentially correlated, observation error statistics. A number of methods for estimating correlated observation errors exist, but a popular method is a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. The accuracy of the results it yields is unknown as the diagnostic is sensitive to the difference between the exact background and exact observation error covariances and those that are chosen for use within the assimilation. It has often been stated in the literature that the results using this diagnostic are only valid when the background and observation error correlation length scales are well separated. Here we develop new theory relating to the diagnostic. For observations on a 1D periodic domain we are able to the show the effect of changes in the assumed error statistics used in the assimilation on the estimated observation error covariance matrix. We also provide bounds for the estimated observation error variance and eigenvalues of the estimated observation error correlation matrix. We demonstrate that it is still possible to obtain useful results from the diagnostic when the background and observation error length scales are similar. In general, our results suggest that when correlated observation errors are treated as uncorrelated in the assimilation, the diagnostic will underestimate the correlation length scale. We support our theoretical results with simple illustrative examples. These results have potential use for interpreting the derived covariances estimated using an operational system.

Diagnosing observation error correlations for Doppler radar radial winds in the Met Office UKV model using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

With the development of convection-permitting numerical weather prediction the efficient use of high resolution observations in data assimilation is becoming increasingly important. The operational assimilation of these observations, such as Dopplerradar radial winds, is now common, though to avoid violating the assumption of un- correlated observation errors the observation density is severely reduced. To improve the quantity of observations used and the impact that they have on the forecast will require the introduction of the full, potentially correlated, error statistics. In this work, observation error statistics are calculated for the Doppler radar radial winds that are assimilated into the Met Office high resolution UK model using a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. This is the first in-depth study using the diagnostic to estimate both horizontal and along-beam correlated observation errors. By considering the new results obtained it is found that the Doppler radar radial wind error standard deviations are similar to those used operationally and increase as the observation height increases. Surprisingly the estimated observation error correlation length scales are longer than the operational thinning distance. They are dependent on both the height of the observation and on the distance of the observation away from the radar. Further tests show that the long correlations cannot be attributed to the use of superobservations or the background error covariance matrix used in the assimilation. The large horizontal correlation length scales are, however, in part, a result of using a simplified observation operator.

Analysis of convectively-generated gravity waves in mesoscale model simulations and wind profiler observations

The characteristics of convectively-generated gravity waves during an episode of deep convection near the coast of Wales are examined in both high resolution mesoscale simulations [with the (UK) Met Oce Unified Model] and in observations from a Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere (MST) wind profiling Doppler radar. Deep convection reached the tropopause and generated vertically propagating, high frequency waves in the lower stratosphere that produced vertical velocity perturbations O(1 m/s). Wavelet analysis is applied in order to determine the characteristic periods and wavelengths of the waves. In both the simulations and observations, the wavelet spectra contain several distinct preferred scales indicated by multiple spectral peaks. The peaks are most pronounced in the horizontal spectra at several wavelengths less than 50 km. Although these peaks are most clear and of largest amplitude in the highest resolution simulations (with 1 km horizontal grid length), they are also evident in coarser simulations (with 4 km horizontal grid length). Peaks also exist in the vertical and temporal spectra (between approximately 2.5 and 4.5 km, and 10 to 30 minutes, respectively) with good agreement between simulation and observation. Two-dimensional (wavenumber-frequency) spectra demonstrate that each of the selected horizontal scales contains peaks at each of preferred temporal scales revealed by the one- dimensional spectra alone.

The significance of volcanic eruption strength and frequency for climate

A simple physical model of the atmospheric effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions is developed. Using only one input parameter - the initial amount of sulphur dioxide injected into the stratosphere - the global-average stratospheric optical-depth perturbation and surface temperature response are modelled. The simplicity of this model avoids issues of incomplete data (applicable to more comprehensive models), making it a powerful and useful tool for atmospheric diagnostics of this climate forcing mechanism. It may also provide a computationally inexpensive and accurate way of introducing volcanic activity into larger climate models. The modelled surface temperature response for an initial sulphur-dioxide injection, coupled with emission-history statistics, is used to demonstrate that the most climatically significant volcanic eruptions are those of sufficient explosivity to just reach into the stratosphere (and achieve longevity). This study also highlights the fact that this measure of significance is highly sensitive to the representation of the climatic response and the frequency data used, and that we are far from producing a definitive history of explosive volcanism for at least the past 1000 years. Given this high degree of uncertainty, these results suggest that eruptions that release around and above 0.1 Mt SO2 into the stratosphere have the maximum climatic impact.

Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation

Bovine tuberculosis (TB)is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.

Urban microclimate and renewable energy use in cities

This paper presents an experimental measurement campaign of urban microclimate for a building complex located in London, the United Kingdom. The experiment was carried out between 19 July and 16 August, 2010 at the Elephant & Castle site. The wind and solar energy distributions within the London urban experimental site were assessed in detail for their potential use in areas of high-rise urban building complexes. The climatic variables were measured at every five minutes for the air temperature, the wind speed and direction, the air humidity and the global solar radiation for a period of four weeks. The surface temperatures were also measured on the asphalt road, pavement and building walls at every hour for the first week of the campaign period. The effect of the building complex on the urban microclimate has been analyzed in terms of the solar radiation, the air temperature and velocity. The information and observation obtained from this campaign will be useful to the analysis of renewable energy implementations in dense urban situations.

Assessing bee species richness in two Mediterranean communities: importance of habitat type and sampling techniques

The decline of bees has raised concerns regarding their conservation and the maintenance of ecosystem services they provide to bee-pollinated wild flowers and crops. Although the Mediterranean region is a hotspot for bee species richness, their status remains poorly studied. There is an urgent need for cost-effective, reliable, and unbiased sampling methods that give good bee species richness estimates. This study aims: (a) to assess bee species richness in two common Mediterranean habitat types: semi-natural scrub (phrygana) and managed olive groves; (b) to compare species richness in those systems to that of other biogeographic regions, and (c) to assess whether six different sampling methods (pan traps, variable and standardized transect walks, observation plots and trap nests), previously tested in other European biogeographic regions, are suitable in Mediterranean communities. Eight study sites, four per habitat type, were selected on the island of Lesvos, Greece. The species richness observed was high compared to other habitat types worldwide for which comparable data exist. Pan traps collected the highest proportion of the total bee species richness across all methods at the scale of a study site. Variable and standardized transect walks detected the highest total richness over all eight study sites. Trap nests and observation plots detected only a limited fraction of the bee species richness. To assess the total bee species richness in bee diversity hotspots, such as the studied habitats, we suggest a combination of transect walks conducted by trained bee collectors and pan trap sampling

Ensemble forecasts of a flood-producing storm: comparison of the influence of model-state perturbations and parameter modifications

High-resolution ensemble simulations (Δx = 1 km) are performed with the Met Office Unified Model for the Boscastle (Cornwall, UK) flash-flooding event of 16 August 2004. Forecast uncertainties arising from imperfections in the forecast model are analysed by comparing the simulation results produced by two types of perturbation strategy. Motivated by the meteorology of the event, one type of perturbation alters relevant physics choices or parameter settings in the model's parametrization schemes. The other type of perturbation is designed to account for representativity error in the boundary-layer parametrization. It makes direct changes to the model state and provides a lower bound against which to judge the spread produced by other uncertainties. The Boscastle has genuine skill at scales of approximately 60 km and an ensemble spread which can be estimated to within ∼ 10% with only eight members. Differences between the model-state perturbation and physics modification strategies are discussed, the former being more important for triggering and the latter for subsequent cell development, including the average internal structure of convective cells. Despite such differences, the spread in rainfall evaluated at skilful scales is shown to be only weakly sensitive to the perturbation strategy. This suggests that relatively simple strategies for treating model uncertainty may be sufficient for practical, convective-scale ensemble forecasting.

The impact of overseas training on curriculum innovation and change in English language education in Western China

This article assesses the impact of a UK-based professional development programme on curriculum innovation and change in English Language Education (ELE) in Western China. Based on interviews, focus group discussions and observation of a total of 48 English teachers who had participated in an overseas professional development programme influenced by modern approaches to education and ELE, and 9 of their colleagues who had not taken part, it assesses the uptake of new approaches on teachers’ return to China. Interviews with 10 senior managers provided supplementary data. Using Diffusion of Innovations Theory as the conceptual framework, we examine those aspects of the Chinese situation that are supportive of change and those that constrain innovation. We offer evidence of innovation in classroom practice on the part of returnees and ‘reinvention’ of the innovation to ensure a better fit with local needs. The key role of course participants as opinion leaders in the diffusion of new ideas is also explored. We conclude that the selective uptake of this innovation is under way and likely to be sustained against a background of continued curriculum reform in China.

Relationship between classroom authority and epistemological beliefs as espoused by primary school mathematics teachers from the very high and very low socio-economic regions in Thailand

This article presents findings of a larger single-country comparative study which set out to better understand primary school teachers’ mathematics education-related beliefs in Thailand. By combining the interview and observation data collected in the initial stage of this study with data gathered from the relevant literature, the 8-belief / 22-item ‘Thai Teachers’ Mathematics Education-related Beliefs’ (TTMEB) Scale was developed. The results of the Mann-Whitney U Test showed that Thai teachers in the two examined socio-economic regions espouse statistically different beliefs concerning the source and stability of mathematical knowledge, as well as classroom authority. Further, these three beliefs are found to be significantly and positively correlated.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community