Seasonal temperature variability of the Neoglacial (3300–2500 BP) and Roman Warm Period (2500–1600 BP) reconstructed from oxygen isotope ratios of limpet shells (Patella vulgata), Northwest Scotland

Seasonal sea-surface temperaturevariability for the Neoglacial (3300–2500 BP) and Roman WarmPeriod (RWP; 2500–1600 BP), which correspond to the Bronze and Iron Ages, respectively, was estimated using oxygen isotope ratios obtained from high-resolution samples micromilled from radiocarbon-dated, archaeological limpet (Patella vulgata) shells. The coldest winter months recorded in Neoglacial shells averaged 6.6 ± 0.3 °C, and the warmest summer months averaged 14.7 ± 0.4 °C. One Neoglacial shell captured a year without a summer, which may have resulted from a dust veil from a volcanic eruption in the Katla volcanic system in Iceland. RWP shells record average winter and summer monthly temperatures of 6.3 ± 0.1 °C and 13.3 ± 0.3 °C, respectively. These results capture a cooling transition from the Neoglacial to RWP, which is further supported by earlier studies of pine history in Scotland, pollen type analyses in northeast Scotland, and European glacial events. The cooling transition observed at the boundary between the Neoglacial and RWP in our study also agrees with the abrupt climate deterioration at 2800–2700 BP (also referred to as the Subboreal/Subatlantic transition) and therefore may have been driven by decreased solar radiation and weakened North Atlantic Oscillation conditions.

Global patterns of vegetation response to millennial-scale variability and rapid climate change during the last glacial period

Ninety-four sites worldwide have sufficient resolution and dating to document the impact of millennial-scale climate variability on vegetation and fire regimes during the last glacial period. Although Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles all show a basically similar gross structure, they vary in the magnitude and the length of the warm and cool intervals. We illustrate the geographic patterns in the climate-induced changes in vegetation by comparing D–O 6, D–O 8 and D–O 19. There is a strong response to both D–O warming events and subsequent cooling, most marked in the northern extratropics. Pollen records from marine cores from the northern extratropics confirm that there is no lag between the change in climate and the vegetation response, within the limits of the dating resolution (50–100 years). However, the magnitude of the change in vegetation is regionally specific and is not a simple function of either the magnitude or the duration of the change in climate as registered in Greenland ice cores. Fire regimes also show an initial immediate response to climate changes, but during cooling intervals there is a slow recovery of biomass burning after the initial reduction, suggesting a secondary control through the recovery of vegetation productivity. In the extratropics, vegetation changes are largely determined by winter temperatures while in the tropics they are largely determined by changes in plant-available water. Tropical vegetation records show changes corresponding to Heinrich Stadials but the response to D–O warming events is less marked than in the northern extratropics. There are very few high-resolution records from the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, but these records also show both a vegetation and fire response to millennial-scale climate variability. It is not yet possible to determine unequivocally whether terrestrial records reflect the asynchroneity apparent in the ice-core records.

African easterly wave variability and its relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

Automatic tracking of vorticity centers in European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses has been used to develop a 20-yr climatology of African easterly wave activity. The tracking statistics at 600 and 850 mb confirm the complicated easterly wave structures present over the African continent. The rainy zone equatorward of 15 degreesN is dominated by 600-mb activity, and the much drier Saharan region poleward of 15 degreesN is more dominated by 850-mb activity. Over the Atlantic Ocean there is just one storm track with the 600- and 850-mb wave activity collocated. Based on growth/decay and genesis statistics, it appears that the 850-mb waves poleward of 15 degreesN over land generally do not get involved with the equatorward storm track over the ocean. Instead, there appears to be significant development of 850-mb activity at the West African coast in the rainy zone around (10 degreesN, 10 degreesW), which, it is proposed, is associated with latent heat release. Based on the tracking statistics, it has been shown that there is marked interannual variability in African easterly wave (AEW) activity. It is especially marked at the 850-mb level at the West African coast between about 10 degrees and 15 degreesN, where the coefficient of variation is 0.29. For the period between 1985 and 1998, a notable positive correlation is seen between this AEW activity and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This correlation is particularly strong for the postreanalysis period between 1994 and 1998. This result suggests that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity may be influenced by the number of AEWs leaving the West African coast, which have significant low-level amplitudes, and not simply by the total number of AEWs.

On the natural variability of the pre-industrial European climate

We suggest that climate variability in Europe for the “pre-industrial” period 1500–1900 is fundamentally a consequence of internal fluctuations of the climate system. This is because a model simulation, using fixed pre-industrial forcing, in several important aspects is consistent with recent observational reconstructions at high temporal resolution. This includes extreme warm and cold seasonal events as well as different measures of the decadal to multi-decadal variance. Significant trends of 50-year duration can be seen in the model simulation. While the global temperature is highly correlated with ENSO (El Nino- Southern Oscillation), European seasonal temperature is only weakly correlated with the global temperature broadly consistent with data from ERA-40 reanalyses. Seasonal temperature anomalies of the European land area are largely controlled by the position of the North Atlantic storm tracks. We believe the result is highly relevant for the interpretation of past observational records suggesting that the effect of external forcing appears to be of secondary importance. That variations in the solar irradiation could have been a credible cause of climate variations during the last centuries, as suggested in some previous studies, is presumably due to the fact that the models used in these studies may have underestimated the internal variability of the climate. The general interpretation from this study is that the past climate is just one of many possible realizations and thus in many respects not reproducible in its time evolution with a general circulation model but only reproducible in a statistical sense.

Variability in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere

The longwave radiative cooling of the clear-sky atmosphere (Q(LWc)) is a crucial component of the global hydrological cycle and is composed of the clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation to space (OLRc) and the net downward minus upward clear-sky longwave radiation to the surface (SNLc). Estimates of QLWc from reanalyses and observations are presented for the period 1979-2004. Compared to other reanalyses data sets, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) produces the largest Q(LWc) over the tropical oceans (217 W m(-2)), explained by the least negative SNLc. On the basis of comparisons with data derived from satellite measurements, ERA40 provides the most realistic QLWc climatology over the tropical oceans but exhibits a spurious interannual variability for column integrated water vapor (CWV) and SNLc. Interannual monthly anomalies of QLWc are broadly consistent between data sets with large increases during the warm El Nino events. Since relative humidity ( RH) errors applying throughout the troposphere result in compensating effects on the cooling to space and to the surface, they exert only a marginal effect on QLWc. An observed increase in CWV with surface temperature of 3 kg m(-2) K-1 over the tropical oceans is important in explaining a positive relationship between QLWc and surface temperature, in particular over ascending regimes; over tropical ocean descending regions this relationship ranges from 3.6 to 4.6 +/- 0.4 W m(-2) K-1 for the data sets considered, consistent with idealized sensitivity tests in which tropospheric warming is applied and RH is held constant and implying an increase in precipitation with warming.

Water vapor variability in the tropics and its links to dynamics and precipitation

The distribution and variability of water vapor and its links with radiative cooling and latent heating via precipitation are crucial to understanding feedbacks and processes operating within the climate system. Column-integrated water vapor (CWV) and additional variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) are utilized to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in tropical water vapor over the period 1979–2001. The moisture variability is partitioned between dynamical and thermodynamic influences and compared with variations in precipitation provided by the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The spatial distribution of CWV is strongly determined by thermodynamic constraints. Spatial variability in CWV is dominated by changes in the large-scale dynamics, in particular associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Trends in CWV are also dominated by dynamics rather than thermodynamics over the period considered. However, increases in CWV associated with changes in temperature are significant over the equatorial east Pacific when analyzing interannual variability and over the north and northwest Pacific when analyzing trends. Significant positive trends in CWV tend to predominate over the oceans while negative trends in CWV are found over equatorial Africa and Brazil. Links between changes in CWV and vertical motion fields are identified over these regions and also the equatorial Atlantic. However, trends in precipitation are generally incoherent and show little association with the CWV trends. This may in part reflect the inadequacies of the precipitation data sets and reanalysis products when analyzing decadal variability. Though the dynamic component of CWV is a major factor in determining precipitation variability in the tropics, in some regions/seasons the thermodynamic component cancels its effect on precipitation variability.

Variability in the summer season hydrological cycle over the Atlantic-Europe region 1979-2007

Variability in aspects of the hydrological cycle over the Europe-Atlantic region during the summer season is analysed for the period 1979-2007, using observational estimates, reanalyses and climate model simulations. Warming and moistening trends are evident in observations and models although decadal changes in water vapour are not well represented by reanalyses, including the new European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim reanalysis. Over the north Atlantic and northern Europe, observed water vapour trends are close to that expected from the temperature trends and Clausius-Clapeyron equation (7% K-1), larger than the model simulations. Precipitation over Europe is dominated by large-scale dynamics with positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation coinciding with drier conditions over north Europe and wetter conditions over the Mediterranean region. Evaporation trends over Europe are positive in reanalyses and models, especially for the Mediterranean region (1-3% per decade in reanalyses and climate models). Over the north Atlantic, declining precipitation combined with increased moisture contributed to an apparent rise in water vapour residence time. Maximum precipitation minus evaporation over the north Atlantic occurred during summer 1991, declining thereafter.

Magnitude of climate variability during middle Pliocene warmth: a palaeoclimate modelling study

The nature and magnitude of climatic variability during the period of middle Pliocene warmth (ca 3.29–2.97 Ma) is poorly understood. We present a suite of palaeoclimate modelling experiments incorporating an advanced atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), coupled to a Q-flux ocean model for 3.29, 3.12 and 2.97 Ma BP. Astronomical solutions for the periods in question were derived from the Berger and Loutre BL2 astronomical solution. Boundary conditions, excluding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) which were predicted by the slab-ocean model, were provided from the USGS PRISM2 2°×2° digital data set. The model results indicate that little annual variation (0.5°C) in SSTs, relative to a ‘control’ experiment, occurred during the middle Pliocene in response to the altered orbital configurations. Annual surface air temperatures also displayed little variation. Seasonally, surface air temperatures displayed a trend of cooler temperatures during December, January and February, and warmer temperatures during June, July and August. This pattern is consistent with altered seasonality resulting from the prescribed orbital configurations. Precipitation changes follow the seasonal trend observed for surface air temperature. Compared to present-day, surface wind strength and wind stress over the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Southern Ocean remained greater in each of the Pliocene experiments. This suggests that wind-driven gyral circulation may have been consistently greater during the middle Pliocene. The trend of climatic variability predicted by the GCM for the middle Pliocene accords with geological data. However, it is unclear if the model correctly simulates the magnitude of the variation. This uncertainty is derived from, (a) the relative insensitivity of the GCM to perturbation in the imposed boundary conditions, (b) a lack of detailed time series data concerning changes to terrestrial ice cover and greenhouse gas concentrations for the middle Pliocene and (c) difficulties in representing the effects of ‘climatic history’ in snap-shot GCM experiments.

Assessing the sources and magnitude of diurnal nitrate variability in the San Joaquin River (California) with an in-situ optical nitrate sensor and dual nitrate isotopes

We investigated diurnal nitrate (NO3-) concentration variability in the San Joaquin River using an in situ optical NO3- sensor and discrete sampling during a 5-day summer period characterized by high algal productivity. Dual NO3- isotopes (delta N-15(NO3) and delta O-18(NO3)) and dissolved oxygen isotopes (delta O-18(DO)) were measured over 2 days to assess NO3- sources and biogeochemical controls over diurnal time-scales. Concerted temporal patterns of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and delta O-18(DO) were consistent with photosynthesis, respiration and atmospheric O-2 exchange, providing evidence of diurnal biological processes independent of river discharge. Surface water NO3- concentrations varied by up to 22% over a single diurnal cycle and up to 31% over the 5-day study, but did not reveal concerted diurnal patterns at a frequency comparable to DO concentrations. The decoupling of delta N-15(NO3) and delta O-18(NO3) isotopes suggests that algal assimilation and denitrification are not major processes controlling diurnal NO3- variability in the San Joaquin River during the study. The lack of a clear explanation for NO3- variability likely reflects a combination of riverine biological processes and time-varying physical transport of NO3- from upstream agricultural drains to the mainstem San Joaquin River. The application of an in situ optical NO3- sensor along with discrete samples provides a view into the fine temporal structure of hydrochemical data and may allow for greater accuracy in pollution assessment.

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.

Seasonal and interannual variability in the Mozambique Channel from moored current observations

Direct observations from an array of current meter moorings across the Mozambique Channel in the south-west Indian Ocean are presented covering a period of more than 4 years. This allows an analysis of the volume transport through the channel, including the variability on interannual and seasonal time scales. The mean volume transport over the entire observational period is 16.7 Sv poleward. Seasonal variations have a magnitude of 4.1 Sv and can be explained from the variability in the wind field over the western part of the Indian Ocean. Interannual variability has a magnitude of 8.9 Sv and is large compared to the mean. This time scale of variability could be related to variability in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), showing that it forms part of the variability in the ocean-climate system of the entire Indian Ocean. By modulating the strength of the South Equatorial Current, the weakening (strengthening) tropical gyre circulation during a period of positive (negative) IOD index leads to a weakened (strengthened) southward transport through the channel, with a time lag of about a year. The relatively strong interannual variability stresses the importance of long-term direct observations.

A link between low-frequency mesoscale eddy variability around Madagascar and the large-scale Indian Ocean variability

A connection is shown to exist between the mesoscale eddy activity around Madagascar and the large-scale interannual variability in the Indian Ocean. We use the combined TOPEX/Poseidon-ERS sea surface height (SSH) data for the period 1993–2003. The SSH-fields in the Mozambique Channel and east of Madagascar exhibit a significant interannual oscillation. This is related to the arrival of large-scale anomalies that propagate westward along 10°–15°S in response to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. Positive (negative) SSH anomalies associated to a positive (negative) IOD phase induce a shift in the intensity and position of the tropical and subtropical gyres. A weakening (strengthening) results in the intensity of the South Equatorial Current and its branches along east Madagascar. In addition, the flow through the narrows of the Mozambique Channel around 17°S increases (decreases) during periods of a stronger and northward (southward) extension of the subtropical (tropical) gyre. Interaction between the currents in the narrows and southward propagating eddies from the northern Channel leads to interannual variability in the eddy kinetic energy of the central Channel in phase with the one in the SSH-field.

Temporal and spatial variability of mobile fauna on a submarine cliff and boulder scree complex: a community in flux

The mobile component of a community inhabiting a submarine boulder scree/cliff was investigated at Lough Hyne, Ireland at dawn, midday, dusk and night over a 1-week period. Line transects (50 m) were placed in the infralittoral (6 m) and circumlittoral (18 m) zones and also the interface between these two zones (12 m). The dominant mobile fauna of this cliff consisted of echinoderms (6 species), crustaceans (10 species) and fish (23 species). A different component community was identified at each time/depth interval using Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS) even though both species diversity (Shannon-Wiener indices) and richness (number of species) remained constant. These changes in community composition provided indirect evidence for migration by these mobile organisms. However, little evidence was found for migration between different zones with the exception of the several wrasse species. These species were observed to spend the daytime foraging in the deeper zone, but returned to the upper zone at night presumably for protection from predators. For the majority of species, migration was considered to occur to cryptic habitats such as holes and crevices. The number of organisms declined during the night, although crustacean numbers peaked, while fish and echinoderms were most abundant during day, possibly due to predator-prey interactions. This submarine community is in a state of flux, whereby, community characteristics, including trophic and energetic relationships, varied over small temporal (daily) and spatial (m) scales.

Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing

Observations show that there was change in interannual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in the mid-1970s. This change was characterized by an eastward shift of the NAO action centres, a poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies and a downstream extension of climate anomalies associated with the NAO. The NAO interannual variability for the period after the mid-1970s has an annular mode structure that penetrates deeply into the stratosphere, indicating a strengthened relationship between the NAO and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this study we have investigated possible causes of these changes in the NAO by carrying out experiments with an atmospheric GCM. The model is forced either by doubling CO2, or increasing sea surface temperatures (SST), or both. In the case of SST forcing the SST anomaly is derived from a coupled model simulation forced by increasing CO2. Results indicate that SST and CO2 change both force a poleward and eastward shift in the pattern of interannual NAO variability and the associated poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies, similar to the observations. The effect of SST change can be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. The direct effect of CO2 change, in contrast, can not be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. However, there is a significant response in the stratosphere, characterized by a strengthened climatological polar vortex with strongly enhanced interannual variability. In this case, the NAO interannual variability has a strong link with the variability over the North Pacific, as in the annular AO pattern, and is also strongly related to the stratospheric vortex, indicating strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The similarity of changes in many characteristics of NAO interannual variability between the model response to doubling CO2 and those in observations in the mid-1970s implies that the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere, and the resulting changes in the stratosphere, might have played an important role in the multidecadal change of interannual NAO variability and its associated climate anomalies during the late twentieth century. The weak change in mean westerlies in the troposphere in response to CO2 change implies that enhanced and eastward extended mid-latitude westerlies in the troposphere might not be a necessary condition for the poleward and eastward shift of the NAO action centres in the mid-1970s.

Impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric climate change

An improved stratospheric representation has been included in simulations with the Hadley Centre HadGEM1 coupled ocean atmosphere model with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the period 1979–2003. An improved stratospheric ozone dataset is employed that includes natural variations in ozone as well as the usual anthropogenic trends. In addition, in a second set of simulations the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind is also imposed using a relaxation towards ERA-40 zonal wind values. The resulting impact on tropospheric variability and trends is described. We show that the modelled cooling rate at the tropopause is enhanced by the improved ozone dataset and this improvement is even more marked when the QBO is also included. The same applies to warming trends in the upper tropical troposphere which are slightly reduced. Our stratospheric improvements produce a significant increase of internal variability but no change in the positive trend of annual mean global mean near-surface temperature. Warming rates are increased significantly over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. The improved stratospheric representation, especially the QBO relaxation, causes a substantial reduction in near-surface temperature and precipitation response to the El Chichón eruption, especially in the tropical region. The winter increase in the phase of the northern annular mode observed in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions is partly captured, especially after the El Chichón eruption. The positive trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) is increased and becomes statistically significant which demonstrates that the observed increase in the SAM is largely subject to internal variability in the stratosphere. The possible inclusion in simulations for future assessments of full ozone chemistry and a gravity wave scheme to internally generate a QBO is discussed.