The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002

Recent research has established that a small but statistically significant link exists between the stratosphere and the troposphere in the northern hemisphere extratropics. In this paper it is shown that a similar link exists between the stratosphere and troposphere during the unprecedented September 2002 sudden warming in the southern hemisphere. Two ensemble forecasts of the stratospheric sudden warming are run which have different stratospheric initial conditions and identical tropospheric initial conditions. Stratospheric initial conditions have an impact on the tropospheric flow at the peak of the major warming (5 days into the run) and on longer time-scales (18 days into the run). The character of this influence is a localized, equatorward shift of the tropospheric storm track. The averaged impact of the change in the position of the storm-track maps strongly onto the Southern Annular Mode structure, but does not have an annular character.

UK commercial property lease structures: Landlord and tenant mismatch

UK commercial property lease structures have come under considerable scrutiny during the past decade since the property crash of the early 1990s. In particular, tenants complained that the system was unfair and that it has blocked business change. Government is committed, through its 2001 election manifesto, to promote flexibility and choice in the commercial property lettings market and a new voluntary Commercial Leases Code of Practice was launched in April 2002. This paper investigates whether occupiers are being offered the leases they require or whether there is a mismatch between occupier requirements and actual leases in the market. It draws together the substantial data now available on the actual terms of leases in the UK and surveys of corporate occupiers' attitude to their occupation requirements. Although the data indicated that UK leases have become shorter and more diverse since 1990, this is still not sufficient to meet the current requirements of many corporate occupiers. It is clear that the inability to manage entry and exit strategies is a major concern to occupiers. Lease length is the primary concern of tenants and a number of respondents comment on the mismatch between lease length in the UK and business planning horizons. The right to break and other problems with alienation clauses also pose serious difficulties for occupiers, thus reinforcing the mismatch. Other issues include repairing and insuring clauses and the type of review clause. There are differences in opinion between types of occupier. In particular, international corporate occupiers are significantly more concerned about the length of lease and the incidence of break clauses than national occupiers and private-sector tenants are significantly more concerned about leasing in general than public-sector occupiers. Proposed solutions by tenants are predictable and include shorter leases, more frequent breaks and relaxation of restrictions concerning alienation and other clauses. A significant number specify that they would pay more for shorter leases and other improved terms. Short leases would make many of the other terms more acceptable and this is why they are the main concern of corporate occupiers. Overall, the evidence suggests that there continues to be a gap between occupiers' lease requirements and those currently offered by the market. There are underlying structural factors that act as an inertial force on landlords and inhibit the changes which occupiers appear to want. Nevertheless, the findings raise future research questions concerning whether UK lease structures are a constraining factor on UK competitiveness.

Forecast calibration and combination: a simple Bayesian approach for ENSO

This study presents a new simple approach for combining empirical with raw (i.e., not bias corrected) coupled model ensemble forecasts in order to make more skillful interval forecasts of ENSO. A Bayesian normal model has been used to combine empirical and raw coupled model December SST Niño-3.4 index forecasts started at the end of the preceding July (5-month lead time). The empirical forecasts were obtained by linear regression between December and the preceding July Niño-3.4 index values over the period 1950–2001. Coupled model ensemble forecasts for the period 1987–99 were provided by ECMWF, as part of the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) project. Empirical and raw coupled model ensemble forecasts alone have similar mean absolute error forecast skill score, compared to climatological forecasts, of around 50% over the period 1987–99. The combined forecast gives an increased skill score of 74% and provides a well-calibrated and reliable estimate of forecast uncertainty.

The thermal transformations of bicyclopropylidene and methylenespiropentane revisited

The overall and the individual rate constants of the unimolecular thermal isomerization of methylenespiropentane (4) to 1,2- and 1,3-dimethylenecyclobutanes (7 and 8) have been determined to be lg (k(-4)/s(-1)) = (13.78 +/- 0.06) - (49.7 +/- 0.2) kcal mol(-1)/RT.ln 10, lg(k(7)/s(-1)) = (13.03 +/- 0.19) - (48.0 +/- 0.6) kcal mol(-1)/RT.ln 10 and lg(k(8)/s(-1)) = (14.15 +/- 0.19) - (52.4 +/- 0.5) kcal mol(-1)/RT.ln 10, respectively. The activation energies are significantly lower than that for the rearrangement of the parent spiropentane. ((c) Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co.

Reconstruction of historical pollination rates reveals linked declines of pollinators and plants

Widespread reports of low pollination rates suggest a recent anthropogenic decline in pollination that could threaten natural and agricultural ecosystems. Nevertheless, unequivocal evidence for a decline in pollination over time has remained elusive because it was not possible to determine historical pollination rates. Here we demonstrate a widely applicable method for reconstructing historical pollination rates, thus allowing comparison with contemporary rates from the same sites. We focused on the relationship between the oil-collecting bee Rediviva peringueyi (Melittidae) and the guild of oil-secreting orchid species (Coryciinae) that depends on it for pollination. The guild is distributed across the highly transformed and fragmented lowlands of the Cape Region of South Africa. We show that rehydrated herbarium specimens of Pterygodium catholicum, the most abundant member of the guild, contain a record of past pollinator activity in the form of pollinarium removal rates. Analysis of a pollination time series showed a recent decline in pollination on Signal Hill, a small urban conservation area. The same herbaria contain historical species occurrence data. We analyzed this data and found that there has been a contemporaneous shift in orchid guild composition in urban areas due to the local extirpation of the non-clonal species, consistent with their greater dependence on seeds and pollination for population persistence.

Conscientiousness predicts greater recovery from negative emotion

Greater levels of conscientiousness have been associated with lower levels of negative affect. We focus on one mechanism through which conscientiousness may decrease negative affect: effective emotion regulation, as reflected by greater recovery from negative stimuli. In 273 adults who were 35 - 85 years old, we collected self-report measures of personality including conscientiousness and its self-control facet, followed on average 2 years later by psychophysiological measures of emotional reactivity and recovery. Among middle-aged adults (35 - 65 years old), the measures of conscientiousness and self-control predicted greater recovery from, but not reactivity to, negative emotional stimuli. The effect of conscientiousness and self-control on recovery was not driven by other personality variables or by greater task adherence on the part of high conscientiousness individuals. In addition, the effect was specific to negative emotional stimuli and did not hold for neutral or positive emotional stimuli.

Phenotypic and proteomic characterization of multiply antibiotic-resistant variants of Salmonella entetica serovar typhimurium selected following exposure to disinfectants

In previous work, Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strain SL1344 was exposed to sublethal concentrations of three widely used farm disinfectants in daily serial passages for 7 days in an attempt to investigate possible links between the use of disinfectants and antimicrobial resistance. Stable variants OXCR1, QACFGR2, and TOPR2 were obtained following treatment with an oxidizing compound blend, a quaternary ammonium disinfectant containing formaldehyde and glutaraldehyde, and a tar acid-based disinfectant, respectively. All variants exhibited ca. fourfold-reduced susceptibility to ciprofloxacin, chloramphenicol, tetracycline, and ampicillin. This coincided with reduced levels of outer membrane proteins for all strains and high levels of AcrAB-To1C for OXCR1 and QACFGR2, as demonstrated by two-dimensional high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. The protein profiles of OXCR1 and QACFGR2 were similar, but they were different from that of TOPR2. An array of different proteins protecting against oxidants, nitroaromatics, disulfides, and peroxides were overexpressed in all strains. The growth and motility of variants were reduced compared to the growth and motility of the parent strain, the expression of several virulence proteins was altered, and the invasiveness in an enteric epithelial cell line was reduced. The colony morphology of OXCR1 and QACFGR2 was smooth, and both variants exhibited a loss of modal distribution of the lipopolysaccharide O-antigen chain length, favoring the production of short O-antigen chain molecules. Metabolic changes were also detected, suggesting that there was increased protein synthesis and a shift from oxidative phosphorylation to substrate level phosphorylation. In this study, we obtained evidence that farm disinfectants can select for strains with reduced susceptibility to antibiotics, and here we describe changes in protein expression in such strains.

Simulated anthropogenic changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation, including its extension to high latitudes

Recent studies using comprehensive middle atmosphere models predict a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in response to climate change. To gain confidence in the realism of this result it is important to quantify and understand the contributions from the different components of stratospheric wave drag that cause this increase. Such an analysis is performed here using three 150-yr transient simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a Chemistry-Climate Model that simulates climate change and ozone depletion and recovery. Resolved wave drag and parameterized orographic gravity wave drag account for 60% and 40%, respectively, of the long-term trend in annual mean net upward mass flux at 70 hPa, with planetary waves accounting for 60% of the resolved wave drag trend. Synoptic wave drag has the strongest impact in northern winter, where it accounts for nearly as much of the upward mass flux trend as planetary wave drag. Owing to differences in the latitudinal structure of the wave drag changes, the relative contribution of resolved and parameterized wave drag to the tropical upward mass flux trend over any particular latitude range is highly sensitive to the range of latitudes considered. An examination of the spatial structure of the climate change response reveals no straightforward connection between the low-latitude and high-latitude changes: while the model results show an increase in Arctic downwelling in winter, they also show a decrease in Antarctic downwelling in spring. Both changes are attributed to changes in the flux of stationary planetary wave activity into the stratosphere.

Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model

The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL–CM5A–LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towards sea surface temperature anomalies with a physically based restoring coefficient. When compared to two independent AMOC reconstructions, both the historical and nudged ensemble simulations exhibit skill at reproducing AMOC variations from 1977 onwards, and in particular two maxima occurring respectively around 1978 and 1997. We argue that one source of skill is related to the large Mount Agung volcanic eruption starting in 1963, which reset an internal 20-year variability cycle in the North Atlantic in the model. This cycle involves the East Greenland Current intensity, and advection of active tracers along the subpolar gyre, which leads to an AMOC maximum around 15 years after the Mount Agung eruption. The 1997 maximum occurs approximately 20 years after the former one. The nudged simulations better reproduce this second maximum than the historical simulations. This is due to the initialisation of a cooling of the convection sites in the 1980s under the effect of a persistent North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) positive phase, a feature not captured in the historical simulations. Hence we argue that the 20-year cycle excited by the 1963 Mount Agung eruption together with the NAO forcing both contributed to the 1990s AMOC maximum. These results support the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic in the observations. Hindcasts following the CMIP5 protocol are launched from a nudged simulation every 5 years for the 1960–2005 period. They exhibit significant correlation skill score as compared to an independent reconstruction of the AMOC from 4-year lead-time average. This encouraging result is accompanied by increased correlation skills in reproducing the observed 2-m air temperature in the bordering regions of the North Atlantic as compared to non-initialized simulations. To a lesser extent, predicted precipitation tends to correlate with the nudged simulation in the tropical Atlantic. We argue that this skill is due to the initialisation and predictability of the AMOC in the present prediction system. The mechanisms evidenced here support the idea of volcanic eruptions as a pacemaker for internal variability of the AMOC. Together with the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic they propose a novel and complementary explanation for the AMOC variations over the last 50 years.

The time course of implicit affective picture processing: an eye movement study

Consistent with a negativity bias account, neuroscientific and behavioral evidence demonstrates modulation of even early sensory processes by unpleasant, potentially threat-relevant information. The aim of this research is to assess the extent to which pleasant and unpleasant visual stimuli presented extrafoveally capture attention and impact eye movement control. We report an experiment examining deviations in saccade metrics in the presence of emotional image distractors that are close to a nonemotional target. We additionally manipulate the saccade latency to test when the emotional distractor has its biggest impact on oculomotor control. The results demonstrate that saccade landing position was pulled toward unpleasant distractors, and that this pull was due to the quick saccade responses. Overall, these findings support a negativity bias account of early attentional control and call for the need to consider the time course of motivated attention when affect is implicit

FACSGen 2.0 animation software: generating three-dimensional FACS-valid facial expressions for emotion research

In this article, we present FACSGen 2.0, new animation software for creating static and dynamic threedimensional facial expressions on the basis of the Facial Action Coding System (FACS). FACSGen permits total control over the action units (AUs), which can be animated at all levels of intensity and applied alone or in combination to an infinite number of faces. In two studies, we tested the validity of the software for the AU appearance defined in the FACS manual and the conveyed emotionality of FACSGen expressions. In Experiment 1, four FACS-certified coders evaluated the complete set of 35 single AUs and 54 AU combinations for AU presence or absence, appearance quality, intensity, and asymmetry. In Experiment 2, lay participants performed a recognition task on emotional expressions created with FACSGen software and rated the similarity of expressions displayed by human and FACSGen faces. Results showed good to excellent classification levels for all AUs by the four FACS coders, suggesting that the AUs are valid exemplars of FACS specifications. Lay participants’ recognition rates for nine emotions were high, and comparisons of human and FACSGen expressions were very similar. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the software in producing reliable and emotionally valid expressions, and suggest its application in numerous scientific areas, including perception, emotion, and clinical and euroscience research.

Description and process evaluation of pharmacists’ interventions in a pharmacist-led information technology-enabled multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial for reducing medication errors in general practice (PINCER trial)

Objective To undertake a process evaluation of pharmacists' recommendations arising in the context of a complex IT-enabled pharmacist-delivered randomised controlled trial (PINCER trial) to reduce the risk of hazardous medicines management in general practices. Methods PINCER pharmacists manually recorded patients’ demographics, details of interventions recommended, actions undertaken by practice staff and time taken to manage individual cases of hazardous medicines management. Data were coded and double entered into SPSS v15, and then summarised using percentages for categorical data (with 95% CI) and, as appropriate, means (SD) or medians (IQR) for continuous data. Key findings Pharmacists spent a median of 20 minutes (IQR 10, 30) reviewing medical records, recommending interventions and completing actions in each case of hazardous medicines management. Pharmacists judged 72% (95%CI 70, 74) (1463/2026) of cases of hazardous medicines management to be clinically relevant. Pharmacists recommended 2105 interventions in 74% (95%CI 73, 76) (1516/2038) of cases and 1685 actions were taken in 61% (95%CI 59, 63) (1246/2038) of cases; 66% (95%CI 64, 68) (1383/2105) of interventions recommended by pharmacists were completed and 5% (95%CI 4, 6) (104/2105) of recommendations were accepted by general practitioners (GPs), but not completed at the end of the pharmacists’ placement; the remaining recommendations were rejected or considered not relevant by GPs. Conclusions The outcome measures were used to target pharmacist activity in general practice towards patients at risk from hazardous medicines management. Recommendations from trained PINCER pharmacists were found to be broadly acceptable to GPs and led to ameliorative action in the majority of cases. It seems likely that the approach used by the PINCER pharmacists could be employed by other practice pharmacists following appropriate training.

Competing for attentional priority: temporary goals versus threats

Numerous studies have shown that attention is biased toward threatening events. More recent evidence has also found attentional biases for stimuli that are relevant to the current and temporary goals of an individual. We examined whether goal-relevant information still evokes an attentional bias when this information competes with threatening events. In three experiments, participants performed a dot probe task combined with a separate task that induced a temporary goal. The results of Experiment 1 showed that attention was oriented to goal-relevant pictures in the dot probe task when these pictures were simultaneously presented with neutral or threatening pictures. Whether goal-relevant pictures themselves were threatening or neutral did not influence the results. Experiment 2 replicated these findings in a sample of highly trait-anxious participants. Experiment 3 showed that attention was automatically deployed to stimuli relevant to a temporary goal even in the presence of stimuli that signal imminent and genuine threat (i.e., a colored patch signaling the presentation of an aversive noise). These findings further corroborate the conclusion that an individual's current and temporary goals guide early attentional processes