Formulating generalised 'goal games' against nature: An illustration from decision-making under uncertainty in agriculture

The games-against-nature approach to the analysis of uncertainty in decision-making relies on the assumption that the behaviour of a decision-maker can be explained by concepts such as maximin, minimax regret, or a similarly defined criterion. In reality, however, these criteria represent a spectrum and, the actual behaviour of a decision-maker is most likely to embody a mixture of such idealisations. This paper proposes that in game-theoretic approach to decision-making under uncertainty, a more realistic representation of a decision-maker's behaviour can be achieved by synthesising games-against-nature with goal programming into a single framework. The proposed formulation is illustrated by using a well-known example from the literature on mathematical programming models for agricultural-decision-making. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

3D path planning with novel multiple 2D layered approach for complex human-robot interaction

Navigating cluttered indoor environments is a difficult problem in indoor service robotics. The Acroboter concept, a novel approach to indoor locomotion, represents unique opportunity to avoid obstacles in indoor environments by navigating the ceiling plane. This mode of locomotion requires the ability to accurately detect obstacles, and plan 3D trajectories through the environment. This paper presents the development of a resilient object tracking system, as well as a novel approach to generating 3D paths suitable for such robot configurations. Distributed human-machine interfacing allowing simulation previewing of actions is also considered in the developed system architecture.

Path planning of robots in noisy workspaces using learning automata

The problem of a manipulator operating in a noisy workspace and required to move from an initial fixed position P0 to a final position Pf is considered. However, Pf is corrupted by noise, giving rise to Pˆf, which may be obtained by sensors. The use of learning automata is proposed to tackle this problem. An automaton is placed at each joint of the manipulator which moves according to the action chosen by the automaton (forward, backward, stationary) at each instant. The simultaneous reward or penalty of the automata enables avoiding any inverse kinematics computations that would be necessary if the distance of each joint from the final position had to be calculated. Three variable-structure learning algorithms are used, i.e., the discretized linear reward-penalty (DLR-P, the linear reward-penalty (LR-P ) and a nonlinear scheme. Each algorithm is separately tested with two (forward, backward) and three forward, backward, stationary) actions.

Urban planning under Major: the end of Thatcherism?

This paper explores the urban planning legacy left by Mrs Thatcher. To what extent has Mr Major continued with her approach? Has he developed new directions? This broad question provides the background for an examination of the changes to the planning system since Mrs Thatcher left office. The main themes covered are the new plan-led emphasis, the increase in the coverage of environmental issues, the question of whether a more people oriented perspective has developed with Major's softer touch and the Citizen's Charter and the property-led approach to urban regeneration. The paper concludes that although the contradictions of Thatcherism have led to the relaxation of certain ideological stances to planning, the central themes of Thatcherism - individualism and centralisation - continue unabated.

The division of labour under uncertainty

Reductions in the division of labour are a significant feature of modern developments in work organisation. It has been recognised that a reduced division of labour can have the advantages of job enrichment and lower coordination costs. In this paper it is shown how advantages from a lesser division of labour can stem from the flow of work between different sets of resources where the work rates of individual production stages are subject to uncertainties. Both process and project-based work are considered. Implications for the boundaries of the firm and for innovation processes are noted.

Sobre la toma de decisiones economicas bajo incertidumbre

In this article we review the evolution of economic theory on decision making under uncertainty. After a brief reference to Expected Utility Theory, we refer to behavioural paradoxes, forcing the theorists to adopt less restrictive approaches, allowing us to explain a broader spectrum of phenomena. The complexity entailed in the new theories requires a multidimensional description of human attitudes towards risk. Nevertheless, measurement of this attitudes has not followed the desired path, with most elicitation methods remaining uni-dimensional.

From base-rate to cumulative respect

The tendency to neglect base-rates in judgment under uncertainty may be "notorious," as Barbey & Sloman (B&S) suggest, but it is neither inevitable (as they document; see also Koehler 1996) nor unique. Here we would like to point out another line of evidence connecting ecological rationality to dual processes, the failure of individuals to appropriately judge cumulative probability.

Oriented vehicles travelling in spherical space

This paper tackles the path planning problem for oriented vehicles travelling in the non-Euclidean 3-Dimensional space; spherical space S3. For such problem, the orientation of the vehicle is naturally represented by orthonormal frame bundle; the rotation group SO(4). Orthonormal frame bundles of space forms coincide with their isometry groups and therefore the focus shifts to control systems defined on Lie groups. The oriented vehicles, in this case, are constrained to travel at constant speed in a forward direction and their angular velocities directly controlled. In this paper we identify controls that induce steady motions of these oriented vehicles and yield closed form parametric expressions for these motions. The paths these vehicles trace are defined explicitly in terms of the controls and therefore invariant with respect to the coordinate system used to describe the motion.

Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation

The possibilities and need for adaptation and mitigation depends on uncertain future developments with respect to socio-economic factors and the climate system. Scenarios are used to explore the impacts of different strategies under uncertainty. In this chapter, some scenarios are presented that are used in the ADAM project for this purpose. One scenario explores developments with no mitigation, and thus with high temperature increase and high reliance on adaptation (leading to 4oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). A second scenario explores an ambitious mitigation strategy (leading to 2oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). In the latter scenario, stringent mitigation strategies effectively reduces the risks of climate change, but based on uncertainties in the climate system a temperature increase of 3oC or more cannot be excluded. The analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but even then adaptation will be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation, but mitigation can help reduce damages and the cost of adaptation. For agriculture, finally, only the scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

The lottery-panel task for bi-dimensional parameter-free elicitation of risk attitudes

We propose first, a simple task for the eliciting attitudes toward risky choice, the SGG lottery-panel task, which consists in a series of lotteries constructed to compensate riskier options with higher risk-return trade-offs. Using Principal Component Analysis technique, we show that the SGG lottery-panel task is capable of capturing two dimensions of individual risky decision making i.e. subjects’ average risk taking and their sensitivity towards variations in risk-return. From the results of a large experimental dataset, we confirm that the task systematically captures a number of regularities such as: A tendency to risk averse behavior (only around 10% of choices are compatible with risk neutrality); An attraction to certain payoffs compared to low risk lotteries, compatible with over-(under-) weighting of small (large) probabilities predicted in PT and; Gender differences, i.e. males being consistently less risk averse than females but both genders being similarly responsive to the increases in risk-premium. Another interesting result is that in hypothetical choices most individuals increase their risk taking responding to the increase in return to risk, as predicted by PT, while across panels with real rewards we see even more changes, but opposite to the expected pattern of riskier choices for higher risk-returns. Therefore, we conclude from our data that an “economic anomaly” emerges in the real reward choices opposite to the hypothetical choices. These findings are in line with Camerer's (1995) view that although in many domains, paid subjects probably do exert extra mental effort which improves their performance, choice over money gambles is not likely to be a domain in which effort will improve adherence to rational axioms (p. 635). Finally, we demonstrate that both dimensions of risk attitudes, average risk taking and sensitivity towards variations in the return to risk, are desirable not only to describe behavior under risk but also to explain behavior in other contexts, as illustrated by an example. In the second study, we propose three additional treatments intended to elicit risk attitudes under high stakes and mixed outcome (gains and losses) lotteries. Using a dataset obtained from a hypothetical implementation of the tasks we show that the new treatments are able to capture both dimensions of risk attitudes. This new dataset allows us to describe several regularities, both at the aggregate and within-subjects level. We find that in every treatment over 70% of choices show some degree of risk aversion and only between 0.6% and 15.3% of individuals are consistently risk neutral within the same treatment. We also confirm the existence of gender differences in the degree of risk taking, that is, in all treatments females prefer safer lotteries compared to males. Regarding our second dimension of risk attitudes we observe, in all treatments, an increase in risk taking in response to risk premium increases. Treatment comparisons reveal other regularities, such as a lower degree of risk taking in large stake treatments compared to low stake treatments and a lower degree of risk taking when losses are incorporated into the large stake lotteries. Results that are compatible with previous findings in the literature, for stake size effects (e.g., Binswanger, 1980; Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Silvestre, 1999; Hogarth & Einhorn, 1990; Holt & Laury, 2002; Kachelmeier & Shehata, 1992; Kühberger et al., 1999; B. J. Weber & Chapman, 2005; Wik et al., 2007) and domain effect (e.g., Brooks and Zank, 2005, Schoemaker, 1990, Wik et al., 2007). Whereas for small stake treatments, we find that the effect of incorporating losses into the outcomes is not so clear. At the aggregate level an increase in risk taking is observed, but also more dispersion in the choices, whilst at the within-subjects level the effect weakens. Finally, regarding responses to risk premium, we find that compared to only gains treatments sensitivity is lower in the mixed lotteries treatments (SL and LL). In general sensitivity to risk-return is more affected by the domain than the stake size. After having described the properties of risk attitudes as captured by the SGG risk elicitation task and its three new versions, it is important to recall that the danger of using unidimensional descriptions of risk attitudes goes beyond the incompatibility with modern economic theories like PT, CPT etc., all of which call for tests with multiple degrees of freedom. Being faithful to this recommendation, the contribution of this essay is an empirically and endogenously determined bi-dimensional specification of risk attitudes, useful to describe behavior under uncertainty and to explain behavior in other contexts. Hopefully, this will contribute to create large datasets containing a multidimensional description of individual risk attitudes, while at the same time allowing for a robust context, compatible with present and even future more complex descriptions of human attitudes towards risk.

Time to decide? Simplicity and congruity in comparative judgment

What is the relationship between magnitude judgments relying on directly available characteristics versus probabilistic cues? Question frame was manipulated in a comparative judgment task previously assumed to involve inference across a probabilistic mental model (e.g., “which city is largest” – the “larger” question – versus “which city is smallest” – the “smaller” question). Participants identified either the largest or smallest city (Experiments 1a, 2) or the richest or poorest person (Experiment 1b) in a three-alternative forced choice (3-AFC) task (Experiment 1) or 2-AFC task (Experiment 2). Response times revealed an interaction between question frame and the number of options recognized. When asked the smaller question, response times were shorter when none of the options were recognized. The opposite pattern was found when asked the larger question: response time was shorter when all options were recognized. These task-stimuli congruity results in judgment under uncertainty are consistent with, and predicted by, theories of magnitude comparison which make use of deductive inferences from declarative knowledge.