"The past is still right here in the present": second-generation Bajan-Brit transnational migrants' views on issues relating to race and colour class

This paper deals with second-generation Barbadians or 'Bajan-Brits', who have decided to,return' to the birthplace of their parents, focusing on their reactions to matters relating to race relations and racialised identities. The importance of race and the operation of the 'colour-class' system in the Caribbean are established at the outset. Based on fifty-two qualitative in-depth interviews, the paper initially considers the positive things that the second-generation migrants report about living in a majority black country and the salience of such racial affirmation as part of their migration process. The paper then presents an analysis of the narratives provided by the Bajan-Brits concerning their reactions to issues relating to race relations in Barbadian society. The impressions of the young returnees provide clear commentaries on what are regarded as (i) the 'acceptance of white hegemony' within Barbadian society, (ii) the occurrence of de facto 'racial segregation, (iii) perceptions of the 'existence of apartheid, and (iv) 'the continuation of slavery'. The account then turns to the contemporary operation of the colour-class system. It is concluded that, despite academic arguments that the colour-class dimension has to be put to one side as the principal dimension of social stratification in the contemporary Caribbean, the second-generation migrants are acutely aware of the continued existence and salience of such gradations within society. Thus, the analysis not only serves to emphasise the continued importance of racial-based stratification in the contemporary Caribbean, but also speaks of the 'hybrid' and 'in-between' racialised identities of the second-generation migrants.

An Assessment of the Recent Past and Future Climate Change, Glacier Retreat, and Runoff in the Caucasus Region Using Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling and HBV-ETH Hydrological Model

The paper discusses the observed and projected warming in the Caucasus region and its implications for glacier melt and runoff. A strong positive trend in summer air temperatures of 0.05 degrees C a(-1) is observed in the high-altitude areas providing for a strong glacier melt and continuous decline in glacier mass balance. A warming of 4-7 degrees C and 3-5 degrees C is projected for the summer months in 2071-2100 under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios respectively, suggesting that enhanced glacier melt can be expected. The expected changes in winter precipitation will not compensate for the summer melt and glacier retreat is likely to continue. However, a projected small increase in both winter and summer precipitation combined with the enhanced glacier melt will result in increased summer runoff in the currently glaciated region of the Caucasus (independent of whether the region is glaciated at the end of the twenty-first century) by more than 50% compared with the baseline period.

Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.

Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).

Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10(6) ms(3) s(-1)) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate sonic weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.