Ice supersaturation in the ECMWF integrated forecast system

A parametrization for ice supersaturation is introduced into the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS), compatible with the cloud scheme that allows partial cloud coverage. It is based on the simple, but often justifiable, diagnostic assumption that the ice nucleation and subsequent depositional growth time-scales are short compared to the model time step, thus supersaturation is only permitted in the clear-sky portion of the grid cell. Results from model integrations using the new scheme are presented, which is demonstrated to increase upper-tropospheric humidity, decrease high-level cloud cover and, to a much lesser extent, cloud ice amounts, all as expected from simple arguments. Evaluation of the relative distribution of supersaturated humidity amounts shows good agreement with the observed climatology derived from in situ aircraft observations. With the new scheme, the global distribution of frequency of occurrence of supersaturated regions compares well with remotely sensed microwave limb sounder (MLS) data, with the most marked errors of underprediction occurring in regions where the model is known to underpredict deep convection. Finally, it is also demonstrated that the new scheme leads to improved predictions of permanent contrail cloud over southern England, which indirectly implies upper-tropospheric humidity fields are better represented for this region.

An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occulation data: setup and testbed study

The long-term stability, high accuracy, all-weather capability, high vertical resolution, and global coverage of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) suggests it as a promising tool for global monitoring of atmospheric temperature change. With the aim to investigate and quantify how well a GNSS RO observing system is able to detect climate trends, we are currently performing an (climate) observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025, which involves quasi-realistic modeling of the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. We carried out two climate simulations with the general circulation model MAECHAM5 (Middle Atmosphere European Centre/Hamburg Model Version 5) of the MPI-M Hamburg, covering the period 2001–2025: One control run with natural variability only and one run also including anthropogenic forcings due to greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric ozone. On the basis of this, we perform quasi-realistic simulations of RO observables for a small GNSS receiver constellation (six satellites), state-of-the-art data processing for atmospheric profiles retrieval, and a statistical analysis of temperature trends in both the “observed” climatology and the “true” climatology. Here we describe the setup of the experiment and results from a test bed study conducted to obtain a basic set of realistic estimates of observational errors (instrument- and retrieval processing-related errors) and sampling errors (due to spatial-temporal undersampling). The test bed results, obtained for a typical summer season and compared to the climatic 2001–2025 trends from the MAECHAM5 simulation including anthropogenic forcing, were found encouraging for performing the full 25-year experiment. They indicated that observational and sampling errors (both contributing about 0.2 K) are consistent with recent estimates of these errors from real RO data and that they should be sufficiently small for monitoring expected temperature trends in the global atmosphere over the next 10 to 20 years in most regions of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Inspection of the MAECHAM5 trends in different RO-accessible atmospheric parameters (microwave refractivity and pressure/geopotential height in addition to temperature) indicates complementary climate change sensitivity in different regions of the UTLS so that optimized climate monitoring shall combine information from all climatic key variables retrievable from GNSS RO data.

Scale-invariant moving finite elements for nonlinear partial differential equations in two dimensions

A scale-invariant moving finite element method is proposed for the adaptive solution of nonlinear partial differential equations. The mesh movement is based on a finite element discretisation of a scale-invariant conservation principle incorporating a monitor function, while the time discretisation of the resulting system of ordinary differential equations is carried out using a scale-invariant time-stepping which yields uniform local accuracy in time. The accuracy and reliability of the algorithm are successfully tested against exact self-similar solutions where available, and otherwise against a state-of-the-art h-refinement scheme for solutions of a two-dimensional porous medium equation problem with a moving boundary. The monitor functions used are the dependent variable and a monitor related to the surface area of the solution manifold. (c) 2005 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Micellar catalysis for partial oxidation of toluene to benzoic acid in supercritical CO2: effects of fluorinated surfactants

One of the key hindrances on development of solid catalysts containing cobalt species for partial oxidation of organic molecules at mild conditions in conventional liquid phase is the severe metal leaching. The leached soluble Co species with a higher degree of freedom always out-performs those of solid supported Co species in oxidation catalysis. However, the homogeneous Co species concomitantly introduces separation problems. We have recently reponed for the first time, a new oxidation catalyst system for the oxidation of organic molecules in supercritical CO2 using the principle of micellar catalysis. [CF3(CF2)(8)COO](2)Co.xH(2)O (the fluorinated anionic moiety forms aqueous reverse micelles carrying water-soluble Co2+ cations in scCO(2)) was previously shown to be extremely active for the oxidation of toluene in the presence of sodium bromide in water-CO2 mixture, giving 98% conversion and 99% selectivity to benzoic acid at 120 degreesC. In this study, we show that the effects of varying the type of surfactant counterions and the length of the surfactant chains on catalysis. It is found that the use of [CF3(CF2)(8)COO](2)Mg.yH(2)O/Co(II) acetate is as effective as the [CF3(CF2)(8)COO](2)Co.xH(2)O and the fluorinated chain length used has a subtle effect on the catalytic rate measured. It is also demonstrated that this new type of micellar catalyst in scCO(2) can be easily separated via CO2 depressurisation and be reused without noticeable deactivation. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genistein protects human mammary epithelial cells from benzo(a)pyrene-7,8-dihydrodiol-9,10-epoxide and 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal genotoxicity by modulating the glutathione/glutathione S-transferase system

Epidemiological studies have shown that ingestion of isoflavone-rich soy products is associated with a reduced risk for the development of breast cancer. In the present study, we investigated the hypothesis that genistein modulates the expression of glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) in human breast cells, thus conferring protection towards genotoxic carcinogens which are GST substrates. Our approach was to use human mammary cell lines MCF-10A and MCF-7 as models for non-neoplastic and neoplastic epithelial breast cells, respectively. MCF-10A cells expressed hGSTA1/2, hGSTA4-4, hGSTM1-1 and hGSTP1-1 proteins, but not hGSTM2-2. In contrast, MCF-7 cells only marginally expressed hGSTA1/2, hGSTA4-4 and hGSTM1-1. Concordant to the protein expression, the hGSTA4 and hGSTP1 mRNA expression was higher in the non-neoplastic cell line. Exposure to genistein significantly increased hGSTP1 mRNA (2.3-fold), hGSTP1-1 protein levels (3.1-fold), GST catalytic activity (4.7-fold) and intracellular glutathione concentrations (1.4-fold) in MCF-10A cells, whereas no effects were observed on GST expression or glutathione concentrations in MCF-7 cells. Preincubation of MCF-10A cells with genistein decreased the extent of DNA damage by 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal (150 mu M) and benzo(a)pyrene-7,8-dihydrodiol-9,10-epoxide (50 mu M), compounds readily detoxified by hGSTA4-4 and hGSTP1-1. In conclusion, genistein pretreatment protects non-neoplastic mammary cells from certain carcinogens that are detoxified by GSTs, suggesting that dietary-mediated induction of GSTs may be a mechanism contributing to prevention against genotoxic injury in the aetiology of breast cancer.

System identification using partitioned least squares

A novel partitioned least squares (PLS) algorithm is presented, in which estimates from several simple system models are combined by means of a Bayesian methodology of pooling partial knowledge. The method has the added advantage that, when the simple models are of a similar structure, it lends itself directly to parallel processing procedures, thereby speeding up the entire parameter estimation process by several factors.

Early identification of stimulant treatment responders, partial responders and non-responders using objective measures in children and adolescents with hyperkinetic disorder

Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate stimulant medication response following a single dose of methylphenidate (MPH) in children and young people with hyperkinetic disorder using infrared motion analysis combined with a continuous performance task (QbTest system) as objective measures. The hypothesis was put forward that a moderate testdose of stimulant medication could determine a robust treatment response, partial response and non-response in relation to activity, attention and impulse control measures. Methods: The study included 44 children and young people between the ages of 7-18 years with a diagnosis of hyperkinetic disorder (F90 & F90.1). A single dose-protocol incorporated the time course effects of both immediate release MPH and extended release MPH (Concerta XL, Equasym XL) to determine comparable peak efficacy periods post intake. Results: A robust treatment response with objective measures reverting to the population mean was found in 37 participants (84%). Three participants (7%) demonstrated a partial response to MPH and four participants (9%) were determined as non-responders due to deteriorating activity measures together with no improvements in attention and impulse control measures. Conclusion: Objective measures provide early into prescribing the opportunity to measure treatment response and monitor adverse reactions to stimulant medication. Most treatment responders demonstrated an effective response to MPH on a moderate testdose facilitating a swift and more optimal titration process.

Adapting the International System of Units to the twenty-first century

We review the proposal of the International Committee for Weights and Measures (Comité International des Poids et Mesures, CIPM), currently being considered by the General Conference on Weights and Measures (Conférences Générales des Poids et Mesures, CGPM), to revise the International System of Units (Le Système International d’Unitès, SI). The proposal includes new definitions for four of the seven base units of the SI, and a new form of words to present the definitions of all the units. The objective of the proposed changes is to adopt definitions referenced to constants of nature, taken in the widest sense, so that the definitions may be based on what are believed to be true invariants. In particular, whereas in the current SI the kilogram, ampere, kelvin and mole are linked to exact numerical values of the mass of the international prototype of the kilogram, the magnetic constant (permeability of vacuum), the triple-point temperature of water and the molar mass of carbon-12, respectively, in the new SI these units are linked to exact numerical values of the Planck constant, the elementary charge, the Boltzmann constant and the Avogadro constant, respectively. The new wording used expresses the definitions in a simple and unambiguous manner without the need for the distinction between base and derived units. The importance of relations among the fundamental constants to the definitions, and the importance of establishing a mise en pratique for the realization of each definition, are also discussed.

Ontology supported competency system

Traditionally representation of competencies has been very difficult using computer-based techniques. This paper introduces competencies, how they are represented, and the related concept of competency frameworks and the difficulties in using traditional ontology techniques to formalise them. A “vaguely” formalised framework has been developed within the EU project TRACE and is presented. The framework can be used to represent different competencies and competency frameworks. Through a case study using an example from the IT sector, it is shown how these can be used by individuals and organisations to specify their individual competency needs. Furthermore it is described how these representations are used for comparisons between different specifications applying ontologies and ontology toolsets. The end result is a comparison that is not binary, but tertiary, providing “definite matches”, possible / partial matches, and “no matches” using a “traffic light” analogy.

Robustness in partial pole placement

The robustness of state feedback solutions to the problem of partial pole placement obtained by a new projection procedure is examined. The projection procedure gives a reduced-order pole assignment problem. It is shown that the sensitivities of the assigned poles in the complete closed-loop system are bounded in terms of the sensitivities of the assigned reduced-order poles, and the sensitivities of the unaltered poles are bounded in terms of the sensitivities of the corresponding open-loop poles. If the assigned poles are well-separated from the unaltered poles, these bounds are expected to be tight. The projection procedure is described in [3], and techniques for finding robust (or insensitive) solutions to the reduced-order problem are given in [1], [2].

Solutions of the fully compressible semi-geostrophic system

The fully compressible semi-geostrophic system is widely used in the modelling of large-scale atmospheric flows. In this paper, we prove rigorously the existence of weak Lagrangian solutions of this system, formulated in the original physical coordinates. In addition, we provide an alternative proof of the earlier result on the existence of weak solutions of this system expressed in the so-called geostrophic, or dual, coordinates. The proofs are based on the optimal transport formulation of the problem and on recent general results concerning transport problems posed in the Wasserstein space of probability measures.

The greater whole: towards a synthesis of system dynamics and soft systems methodology

This paper makes a theoretical case for using these two systems approaches together. The theoretical and methodological assumptions of system dynamics (SD) and soft system methodology (SSM) are briefly described and a partial critique is presented. SSM generates and represents diverse perspectives on a problem situation and addresses the socio-political elements of an intervention. However, it is weak in ensuring `dynamic coherence'. consistency between the intuitive behaviour resulting from proposed changes and behaviour deduced from ideas on causal structure. Conversely, SD examines causal structures and dynamic behaviours. However, whilst emphasising the need for a clear issue focus, it has little theory for generating and representing diverse issues. Also, there is no theory for facilitating sensitivity to socio-political elements. A synthesis of the two called ‘Holon Dynamics' is proposed. After an SSM intervention, a second stage continues the socio-political analysis and also operates within a new perspective which values dynamic coherence of the mental construct - the holon - which is capable of expressing the proposed changes. A model of this holon is constructed using SD and the changes are thus rendered `systemically desirable' in the additional sense that dynamic consistency has been confirmed. The paper closes with reflections on the proposal and the need for theoretical consistency when mixing tools is emphasised.